Kevin O'Donnell
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open
Yeah. So, what I touched on before is I think there's a couple of issues and in my early comments, were specific to the fact that it's a much bigger industry event than what was initially forecast. And I think that has to do with – there's probably been an optimistic representation of Japanese wind within the models, which is certainly a component of it. I think underwriters over time, in regions without frequency or without severity even they have a tendency to under estimate the risk that they're taking. So, I think there was a degree of underwriting optimism in the market. And I think there's been all of that exasperated by there being slow reporting. So, in Japan, one tends to expect slow reporting, this was slower than usual, which probably added to this being something that has burned for longer than what would have been expected. So, mischaracterization of the event from time zero, optimism with underwriters representing the risk and slow reporting all contributed. When I think about our book, you know, what I said in my comments is, our net negative impact has not changed from when we first reported in Q3 2018. However, our growth is up. So, as I mentioned, we started at eight to 10, we think it's now at least 15. That is also had some growth in our gross loss. So, because of the way we structured our portfolio, we have managed to maintain the same ultimate impact to our shareholders, which is the net negative impact. So when I look at our reserves, I feel good about where we are with about half our loss in either ACR or IDNR, but I do have concern that if this loss continues to develop that it can adversely affect us, particularly through retro and in retro we purchase fewer protections than we do on a reinsurance book. Hopefully, that is helpful.