Kevin O'Donnell
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Your line is open
Thanks Bob. I’ll define my comments between Property segment and the Casualty segment. Starting with Property, overall we grew gross property written in our property segment 36% over the comparable quarter last year. Property cat grew 42% with the substantial portion of this quarter in our Upsilon joint venture. As we discussed, we raised capital in Upsilon late last year in order to take advantage of opportunities at January 1st, where customers chose to grow with us. The remainder of the growth came from a mix of better rate and new business. The growth at January 1st was possible due to our strategy and flexible approach to capital. When we see a good opportunity, we’re able to execute quickly. Our diverse capital sources including the ILS capital deployed through Fibonacci, Upsilon and Medici provided great assessments and maximizing our performance and the ability to leverage into the market. Gross written premiums in other property also grew by 10% over the comparable quarter primarily from our European platform. This growth was also the result of a combination of rate increases and new business. As previously noted, we experienced solid rate increases at January 1st albeit at the lower end of our expectations. As I discussed on the call last quarter, loss affected retro was up the most averaging between 10% and 25% with non-loss effective programs flat to up 10%. On loss affected U.S. cat business, rates were up between 10% and 20% and rates on other U.S. cat programs were flat to up 5%, while rates on other property were up 5% to 10%. Rates in international property market were flat to up 5%. Japan was a major focus at April 1st. The Japanese both continues to an important component of the international portfolio. Although demand increased this year, there was ample supply and renewals for order lease. Japan is viewed as one of the more desirable regions outside the U.S. In this market however incumbency is important. We were able to grow our Japanese book due to our deep and longstanding relationships with our customers in the region, pricing for the Japan renewals was risk adjusted about flat. The U.S. cat team is currently busy with the June 1st renewals, which are dominated by Florida and other peak zone U.S. risk. Unfortunately, early signs indicate capital is being deployed aggressively as third-party capital continues to seek share in the Florida market. In addition, we do not anticipate significant new demand in Florida. These factors lead us to expect that rate increases at midyear likely to be single-digit risk adjusted. We hope to see some opportunities to grow at June 1st, but do not expect to be able to do so anywhere near the rate we did at January 1st. This is part of the reason why we grew so assertively in the first quarter. Florida continues to be an important market for us. We will always be there to support our customers and rapidly pay claims in the aftermath of natural disasters as we did last year with Hurricane Irma. That said, Florida plays a significantly less substantial role in our portfolio now than it did even just five years ago. Consequently, rate changes in the Florida market do not affect our bottom line profitability as much as they once did. We continue to assess the 2017 catastrophe events as we received additional information from our customers. As I have discussed before, each catastrophic event is unique. In Hurricane Harvey, for example, we expected to see more risk losses than currently experienced in our other property business. As Bob discussed however, these risk losses have not emerged as expected and consequently we lowered our estimate. Similarly, the anticipated commercial losses in Hurricane Maria haven’t materialized as quickly as expected. But given the size of Maria, and its continuing impact on Puerto Rico, it’s too early to determine this indicative of lower actual losses. It is possible the losses just haven’t been reported yet due to conditions on the ground. Hurricane Irma and the California wildfires are developing as expected. We are very fortunate to have decades of experience with catastrophes in general and U.S. hurricanes in particular. We have our own proprietary pros loss estimation tools and loss development curves. More importantly, our years of experience estimating losses and settling claims provided us superior insight into the recent loss development in Hurricane Irma. For example, we really not surprised by the large number of reopen claims insurers are experiencing with a relatively high levels of loss adjustment expenses. This is similar situation with the California wildfires. Once again, our experience and for proprietary tools and models provided us better insight into the potential impact of these events, consequently recognizing that the Northern California fires or a tail event were comfortable with our loss estimate. Our WeatherPredict subsidiary, recently compiled the white paper on the 2017 wildfires analyzing the conditions that led to this historic losses. Combination of heavy rains in the first two months of 2017 followed by most extremely and drought conditions since 1895 resulted in large amounts of very combustible fuel for the fire. High winds then contributed to quickly spread the conflagration while at the same time overwhelming fire separation efforts. These conditions combined with high building density of wood structures in the wild land, urban interface resulted in historic wildfires losses. This deep insight into the nature and courses of wildfires, it was a distinct advantage in estimating losses at the time of the event while also improving our ability to serve our customers and provide them consistent underwriting and capital going forward. Moving to our Casualty segment, gross premiums were up 13% versus the comparable quarter. This number probably overstates how much we believe this book actually grew however. As Bob pointed out, the book grew somewhere closer to 8% once premium adjustments are backed out. Going forward, there should be some growth in this segment from business already on our books, but while we're looking hard to create new opportunities, we do not expect significant growth in new business absent improvement in the market. For our Casualty segment, this is a busy period of the year. Just over 40% of the book renews between March 1st and July 1st. During the January renewal, the Casualty reinsurance market exhibited some favorable adjustments in reinsurance terms and conditions. In addition, reinsurance exercised relatively more discipline. At April 1st, there is less over capacity and reduced willingness in the market to support programs at expiring terms. Underlying rates continue to increase modestly and high severity lines of business. The bigger question will be whether insurance rates can say ahead of loss trends, which have been rising most notably in line such as excess casualty. We have good visibility into loss trends and raising awareness of market divisions among our customers in order to help them navigate the current environment. Mortgage business continues to be attractive despite recent headlines of decreasing PMI rates and increased competition. These developments could make mortgage business more competitive overtime. We had low direct impact on the reinsurance that we assumed. However due to the levels, we attached and the structures of the risks. We are recognize leader and credit reinsurance product such as mortgage and expect to continue to maintain this franchise going forward. Across our Casualty segment, we continue to manage our shared business within classes of risks in order to way, the portfolio for the most profitable classes. Ultimately, our goal is to improve faster than the market and our strategy to achieve this goal has three components. First, extend expertise, strengthening leadership and creating best-in-class tools to optimize our portfolio of business. Second, continuing to focus on customer relationships. And third, targeting an overweight position in the most profitable classes and actively managing the portfolio. Interventions unit, we raised $70 million of notes from Fibonacci Re in February covering a portfolio of U.S. risk. The innovative solutions such as Fibonacci led us match the right capital to the right risk at the right time. This allows us to facilitate efficient bespoke solutions for our customers. Our ventures unit is a critical component of this execution of our strategy as it provides us with the flexible capital to meet the needs of our customers. The uniqueness of our structure and access to rated and ILS capacity is critical in today’s market. In conclusion, the first quarter was strong. Thanks to low catastrophe activity, continued growth and premiums and prior year favorable development. Coming up to the midyear renewals, we remain focused on implementing our strategy and maximizing shareholder value. We will continue to build our book by leveraging our platforms and our ability to optimally construct portfolios against all sources of capital. Rising interest rates have had a short term impact on our investment portfolio, but will benefit less over the long-term. Overall, I look forward to 2018 knowing that our team has the right strategy to deliver shareholder value and always, we’ll focus relentlessly on our three superiors of superior capital, management superior customer relationships, and superior risk selection. Thank you and with that, we’ll turn it over to questions.