Ryan Meliker
Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.
Yes. You bet, Ryan. Starting with Moscone, the good news there is that our asset in the CBD is going -- is young, it's new. It came online in the second half of last year and will become comp in the fourth quarter of this year. So, it is still ramping up. So, in a sense we have an advantage there, because we have easy comps. We don't have difficult comps versus a closed Moscone. That asset is still ramping up and our comps are versus a hotel, brand new at the time. So, we think it will actually provide us some juice in our numbers. We do have a couple of assets across the Bay Bridge in Emeryville. They may feel less compression. Now, we are hearing positive things from some of our peers that are talking about good business in the city that's being preserved by moving it to different venues, so the impact might be moderated by that. But, assuming the worst for a minute, Emeryville may feel a slight drop in compression, now that's a market that also has its own organic demand base, it also draws from Berkley which is unreserved, it also draws from Oakland where people are still at times uncertain about staying there and they will chose Emeryville as an alternative. But, the balance of our assets further south in the Bay area will be less affected by the compression issues, Los Altos, Santa Clara, San Jose there will be immune, but there will be less effective perhaps. We also have some tailwinds in that market, a couple of our assets were under heavy renovation last year, like our Hyatt House in Emeryville. So, that should help moderate some of the effects of what we're talking about, call it easier comps and tailwinds and that will be recurring theme that you hear from us in a number of our markets. As for the new supply, that market is sorely unreserved, you can't get a room there midweek. And as far as we can tell so far Ryan, the new inventory is being observed as quickly as it can open. And what I'm hearing from some of our friends in the development community like OTO in Huntington and T2 and others that are building these assets, is that the difficulty of getting deals done are immense. The cost of the labor, the permitting process has always been a bear. But, they are off the belief and I'm banking on their expertise in the area here that this next little wavelet of openings in 2017 and 2018 maybe the last we see for a while, and I think we believe that the markets will absorb them nicely.