Earnings Labs

RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Sun, May 8, 2016

$8.07

+0.19%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the RLJ Lodging Trust First Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Hilda Delgado, Vice President and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Hilda Delgado

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Welcome to RLJ’s first quarter earnings call. On today’s call, Tom Baltimore, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer will discuss key operational highlights for the quarter and Leslie Hale, Chief Financial Officer will discuss the company’s financial results. On today’s call, we are also joined by Ross Bierkan, the company’s Chief Investment Officer and Interim CEO Designee. Forward-looking statements made on this call are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that may cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from what has been communicated. Factors that may impact the results of the company can be found in the company’s 10-K and other reports filed with the SEC. The company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also, as we discuss certain non-GAAP measures, it maybe helpful to review the reconciliations to GAAP located in our press release from last night. I will now turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Thank you, Hilda. Good morning, everyone and welcome to our 2016 first quarter earnings call. We are pleased to complete another quarter of positive operating results that further adds to our longstanding track record of performance. In addition to growing our RevPAR, we increased our return of capital to shareholders by repurchasing shares and we further strengthened our balance sheet by successfully refinancing over $1 billion of debt. These achievements continue to demonstrate our unwavering commitment to our three guiding principles of achieving operational excellence, prudently allocating capital and proactively managing our balance sheet. During the first quarter, our portfolio achieved RevPAR growth of 2.1%, led by exceptional double-digit growth in our Northern and Southern California markets, which offsets softer results in other markets such as Chicago and Houston. Our RevPAR, excluding Chicago and Houston, increased by 3.9% and outperformed the comparable Smith travel industry RevPAR growth by 90 basis points. The shift in the Easter holiday this year combined with the impact from adverse weather conditions in some regions led to uneven performance in many of our markets. Despite these events, we are very pleased that our hotels continue to gain market share by increasing RevPAR index during the quarter. We anticipate RevPAR growth to improve throughout the year as we get past the holiday shift in the first quarter. Our transient pace has improved and we expect that we will benefit from the ramp up of the two major conversions that we completed last year and also benefit from our properties in higher growth markets such as California. Our positive view for the year is further supported by the expectations for moderate U.S. economic growth to continue. Job creation has been robust since the beginning of the year, consumer confidence remains high and oil prices are showing signs…

Leslie Hale

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. Our solid performance during the first quarter once again underscores the benefit of our diversification strategy. Our portfolio was able to achieve positive RevPAR and EBITDA growth despite the headwinds created by the holiday shift, adverse weather conditions in some markets and a couple of market-specific challenges. We are pleased that this quarter our hotel EBITDA increased $6.3 million to $92.4 million representing an increase of 7.3% over the prior year. For the quarter, our portfolio achieved hotel EBITDA margins of 33.6%, an increase of 35 basis points over the prior year. Our ability to drive margin growth in light of the moderate RevPAR growth is a testament to our efficient operating model. Performance in Chicago and Houston impacted our margins. Excluding these two markets, our margins would have increased by a robust 82 basis points. Our portfolio’s increased exposure to stronger performing markets combined with our ability to maintain cost discipline generated robust corporate results. Our adjusted EBITDA this quarter increased $4.9 million to $86 million, representing an increase of 6.1% over last year. This increase translated into adjusted FFO growth of 5.2% over the prior year to $70.8 million or $0.57 on a per share basis. Our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted FFO reflect add-backs to normalize our results. During the first quarter, the most notable add-back related to a non-cash deferred tax expense of $1.1 million, which we alluded to on our last call. As Tom mentioned earlier, we were very active in the capital markets and took advantage of the low interest rate environment to refinance over a $1 billion of debt with a primary focus on further staggering our debt maturities. In each of these transactions, we were able to expand the duration, enhance the covenant and improve the interest rate. First, we refinanced…

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Thank you, Leslie. This is a very bittersweet time for me. And I want to take a moment to thank my fellow RLJ team members, our shareholders, and our other business partners from many years of support and encouragement. Building RLJ Lodging Trust and our predecessor entities over the last 16 plus years has been a team effort and I am extremely proud of what we have accomplished together. I am delighted that we have created a sustainable platform with a diversified, high-quality portfolio, a fortress balance sheet and consistently generated superior risk adjusted returns. The board and I have full confidence in the talented group of men and women on our senior team who have been together for more than a decade. Their exceptional abilities and experience will continue to drive RLJ’s strategy forward and deliver considerable value to our shareholders. The Board recently formed a committee to conduct a comprehensive CEO search to include both internal and external candidates. While the board understands the need for expediency in naming a permanent CEO, they will be thoughtful and will take the necessary time to find the appropriate individual for this role. The company will provide an update on this process at the appropriate time. During this time, I am pleased that the board named Ross Bierkan as Interim CEO. Ross has been a superb executive and a trusted partner to me for 16 years. He has worked closely with me and the rest of the executive team to develop and execute RLJ strategy and is well-qualified to move into this new role. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ross for closing remarks.

Ross Bierkan

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. I have had the privilege to be a part of RLJ’s growth and evolution from day one. And over the last 16 years, I am proud of everything that we have collectively accomplished. We are firmly committed to executing our strategic plan and this leadership transition does not change that focus in anyway. Our highly experienced team remains committed to delivering superior shareholder value by continuing to adhere to our three guiding principles of achieving operational excellence, prudently allocating capital and proactively managing our balance sheet. We have a very high-quality, diversified hotel portfolio that is well-positioned to deliver robust performance in all parts of the lodging cycle. And our balance sheet is one of the best in the business. As Leslie said, Tom will certainly be missed, but we all feel confident about where RLJ is and where we are going. On behalf of our team and the board, I would like to thank Tom for his outstanding leadership and wish him the very best in his new opportunity. Thank you. And this concludes our remarks. We will now open the lines for Q&A. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Wes Golladay with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Wes Golladay

Analyst

Yes, good morning everyone and congratulations, Tom.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

And Wes, just one second, I understand that we had some technical difficulties on the webcast, so I just wanted to apologize, really beyond our control. So, we will make sure that the webcast is appropriately put the tape is put up, so listeners can re-listen to it and again, we apologize. Our service provider is working on making sure it’s corrected. So, with that….

Wes Golladay

Analyst

Yes, just a heads up, I didn’t hear the little beep sounds when I hit star 1 so maybe that’s an issue as well? Looking at the dispositions, because it looks like you have done about $22 million over the past year. I think with the stock trading where it is today, you would probably like to have a higher number than that. Is there anything that’s holding it up, whether it be the brands, the manager, is it just a bid/ask spread, what’s your take on what’s holding up the disposition?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Wes, one thing I would like to point out, we actually sold now 43 assets for $400 million since the IPO. And you know last year, I think we have sold, we did the portfolio deal last February for 20 assets for about $230 million. So, I think we were you know 22 to 25 assets last year plus or minus. The team is working diligently on selling non-core assets and I will let Ross provide some additional commentary on that.

Ross Bierkan

Analyst

Thanks, Tom. Yes, Wes, we have had a portfolio of 14 on the market for two or three quarters and there is no doubt that the bid/ask widened a little bit partly because of the debt markets, partly because the – frankly the buying community shrunk a little bit when the public REITs ironically left the space. But I am pleased to report that we have had good activity on it over the last few weeks and we have got a buyer circling and we are cautiously optimistic that we will be able to report some activity to you next quarter.

Wes Golladay

Analyst

Okay, that sounds good. And then looking at the way the first quarter shaped up, obviously there was a little bit of, you came in at the low end of your guidance. Was this purely a function of just the holiday shift being more impactful before? I think everyone kind of missed March as being a more difficult month. Is that all there was to it or was there any market that weakened in particular?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

That’s a fair question. Wes, I would say clearly Easter had more of an impact I think for our portfolio and ended up being about 170 basis points across the entire portfolio. Clearly, March was a little softer. I think we ended up about 1.1%, so clearly ended up on the low end of the guidance. You know, we still feel very good about the guidance for the balance of the year. Again, we have got favorable comps. We have got renovation tailwinds from last year. We have got a number of things that would certainly benefit us as we move forward.

Wes Golladay

Analyst

Okay, I will hop back in the queue. Thanks.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Weissman, please proceed with your question.

Ian Weissman

Analyst

Thank you very much. First of all, I want to say congratulations and best of luck to both Tom and Ross on the opportunity that lies ahead. Again, congratulations. Tom, you talked a little bit about in your opening comments about the continued challenges in Houston with the expectation that the market, I think you said is going to underperform your portfolio. You know, historically there has been a very strong correlation between oil prices and RevPAR performance in that market. You know, just given the recent move in oil prices, can you just possibly quantify where you think RevPAR will shake out in the city this year? I mean, will it stay negative?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Yes, I think for the broader market, oil I think this morning was up to about $45 plus or minus, so you know clearly coming back but nowhere near, Ian, where we were at $100 a barrel. No doubt that there is a high correlation between RevPAR and oil. I would say for the market, I would expect it to probably be negative based on where it ended last year and where the demand trends are. I would say for us, I really believe that we are going to surprise to the upside and keep in mind for the first quarter last year we were up 5.4%, so we had a tough comp, followed then by, we were down pretty significantly 11%, followed by 13% in fourth quarter and then I think we ended the year down about 8.3%. Also we underperformed in part because we chose to renovate half of our assets last year. So, we expect that to really be a tailwind. I don’t want to be too Pollyanna-ish about, but I do think that we will significantly outperform the market and I know some were projecting the market to be down 7% to 9%. We don’t see that in RLJ’s future, coupled with the fact that we still got the SpringHill Suites, the conversion opportunity that has opened and is continuing to ramp up. No, not a comp hotel, but clearly it’s going to contribute on the EBITDA side. So, Houston is a strong long-term market. Remember, it’s only 5% of EBITDA for the RLJ portfolio and we again have a very well diversified and that’s 5% across the portfolio that we are comfortable at that level and don’t think at all that’s it’s going to be a drag for us for the full year.

Ian Weissman

Analyst

Right. And just as a follow-up. Thank you for that. Just on the asset sales, I mean we saw Hirscher close its New York City portfolio sale, we saw Starwood announce that they are selling the St. Regis, I think in both New York and San Francisco to the Qatari, so there is clearly a demand at both ends of the spectrum in terms of asset on the scale side, can you just update us on what the sale market looks like today in New York City for the stuff that you are interested in selling?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst

Yes. Ian, it’s Ross. The market is clearly skewed towards luxury. There is certainly a trophy premium. For the types of assets we have I would say it’s stable. There are three or four assets on the market right now that are being listed and there is no price discovery on them. They have languished a little bit. I am talking about weeks, not months. And so we don’t have great comps for our kind of product type right now. We don’t have ours listed, but we are receiving some inbound calls and it’s a mix of high net worth and Asian and so we are evaluating those. But we haven’t chosen to actually list the property right now. And we are bullish long-term on the market. It’s still one of the great markets in the hotel industry. But we have recognized that there might be some arbitrage in the near-term that we should at least take a look at.

Ian Weissman

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much. Congrats again.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Crow with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Bill Crow

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning and I would like to echo to the congratulations, both Tom and Ross. Tom, I look forward to working with you over at the Hilton REIT. You talk about the more impactful Easter shift, can you give us an update, I don’t think I heard it on April and whether those trends have reversed, because we have been kind of looking for that in the national data and just haven’t seen it?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Bill, haven’t closed out, obviously April yet, clearly April was stronger, certainly than we had seen in March and certainly in January. Probably will be in, I would say the low to mid-3s, so certainly better and encouraging. I think it’s important to note that transient in second quarter for us in our portfolio was trending up about 6%. When you compare that to January, which was trending in the early part of it up about 1%, so we are cautiously optimistic, there are a number of tailwinds that benefit us in the second half of the year and certainly Ross and Leslie are prepared to dig into those if there are additional questions on it. But we are comfortable with our guidance and comfortable with certainly maintaining what we put out at the beginning of the year.

Bill Crow

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

And Tom, can you—is there any way to quantify how much impact Southern California received from the gas leak, was your—did your portfolio benefit to the same extent that some others did?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

It did Bill, we were up as you know, I think in Northern California of about 28.7%. We were up 11.9% in Southern Cal. I believe one of the properties closest and would have benefited got an incremental. They were up about 30%, so it clearly had a positive impact, but unlike some of our peers where I think it was a greater, it was certainly a nice lift, but it was not a material impact to our portfolio. Again, we have got 14 assets now in California, so spread out and so diverse and in many great submarkets. So we feel really great about the repositioning work that we have done on our portfolio. And again, as I have said before, Northern California being our top market and then California in total about 16% of our EBITDA now, so that provides a great foundation for us as we move forward.

Bill Crow

Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you. That’s it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Anthony Powell

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning everyone and congrats to Tom and Ross on the new opportunities.

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Thanks to everybody that’s offered that. We appreciate.

Anthony Powell

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

I missed the prepared remarks. I am sorry if you addressed this already, but South Florida was a market that seemed to have been a bit weaker in the first quarter, what’s the outlook for the rest of the year, especially progress international inbound travel and the impact of supply growth there?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

I think it’s fair Anthony, we clearly saw a little bit of pull back on the international side. I think for us it was about $100,000 and certainly coming out of Canada and Brazil in particular of about 36 basis points. Probably the biggest disappointment for us was our Hilton Cabana. We had a leadership change at the property level. That property had a good year, last year had a tough first quarter. And part of that is with additional supply in the market and a lot of the beach hotels dropping rate and us being a little more North Miami Beach, that property was down double-digits. So you take that out, that hotel and I believe we were up about 2%. So still probably better than the market even with us being down 1.1%. I think the market was down 2.5%. We clearly outperformed and would have performed even more, have we not had a little bit of a mishap there at the Hilton Cabana. We are confident that we have got the issue addressed and our asset management team is partnering with our management company there and we expect much better results and improvement as we move forward.

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

And Anthony, on the softer less data driven side, there is no doubt that it was an unseasonably warm season in the Northeast and a little bit of a rainy season in Florida. And that was a deterrent, but it’s hard to quantify. And also a particularly dysfunctional period in Brazil right now and we are hoping that a year from now that that will be a clearer picture there and we might see a resumption of some of that inbound from them.

Anthony Powell

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. And I believe almost all of your brand companies are now offering discounts to customers who book direct through their online channels, what’s your view on the impact of this, for your portfolio, is it positive or a negative over the next several years?

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

We enthusiastically support it and we congratulate all the efforts being made by our business partners at Marriott, at Hilton and Hyatt in particular. And anything that can reduce the cost of acquisition and allow us to have a more direct relationship with our customers and lower the, what we call the cost of revenue or the cost of acquisition is going to be a huge benefit. We are seeing with Hilton’s Stop Clicking Around, incrementally our portfolio, it’s been a real positive. So we are encouraged and enthusiastically endorsed and continue to encourage those companies and particularly their leaders to continue those efforts.

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Right. Anthony, some of the recent negotiations that Marriott and Hilton especially have engaged in with Expedia and Priceline.com and some of the other gorillas in the space have been pretty successful. They have been able to claw back a few hundred bps of commission. More importantly perhaps, they have gotten back last room availability which frankly, in retrospect never should have been given away. So now the operators can basically yield out the OTAs when they are feeling good about their occupancy prospects. When the pace looks strong, they can cut those channels. And then finally they did gain permission, which again it’s hard to believe they ever gave up, but they have regained permission to post the lowest rates on their own website to encourage their clients to book direct on the brand site. These are all big wins and we are just beginning to see the repercussions.

Anthony Powell

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, just a quick follow-up. So, have you seen actual impact to the financials in your Hilton portfolio either in terms of your OTA room nights booked or you know lower commissions or anything like that in the first quarter?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. In New York City in particular, that’s where we have been beta-testing it primarily and we have seen positive impact. We have seen a savings in commissions. We have seen a reduction in OTA bookings and a displacement of them with direct bookings through the channel, through the brand channels. So, so far, preliminarily, it looks like it’s beginning to work.

Anthony Powell

Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Alright. Thanks a lot for that detail. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Meliker with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, good morning, guys. I will reiterate all the sentiments. Congratulations to both Tom and Ross. Hope things go great going forward. The question I had was you guys have given some, I mean I guess data points surrounding improved transient demand trends heading into the second quarter. I think that’s great. I think, Tom, you had mentioned you are up 6%. Is that all demand? Is that all rate? Is that a combination of both and are there certain markets where you are seeing outperformance or underperformance?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

I want to make sure I understand the question, Ryan. Are you asking what the ratio is between…

Ryan Meliker

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, of that 6% that you are up heading into the second quarter right now and I know it’s, you don’t have a lot of visibility very far out, but are you driving a rate or is the majority of that occupancy?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

If you break that 6% down, 6.1%, it’s 3.4% in rooms sold and 2.6% in ADR, so it’s a pretty even split. Now, keep in mind transient pace is a little bit of a flowing moving target, because people cancel and book and so it’s not quite as static as a group pace, but it’s an indicator. So, for example, at this time last quarter looking at the first quarter, the transient pace was up 1% and now it’s up a little over 6%. So, we like the indication and it’s promising.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Is any of that, is a large portion of that 6% driven by the Easter calendar shift or not at all?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

We don’t think so. I mean, there were a couple of markets that got whacked pretty good by Easter you know Austin stood out, while other markets were impacted less. And then the first couple weeks of April weren’t quite, you didn’t see a springboard there to the degree that you might have expected possibly because of Passover, but it’s actually been a more level process. I don’t think you can attribute, I don’t think you can give Easter too much credit or blame for the trends at this point?

Ryan Meliker

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

No, that’s helpful. And then one of the things that we heard from Marriott and Host was that group booking paces are picking up in the second and third quarters and they are particularly strong over the summer months and that’s going to translate into stronger transient pricing power. I know you guys don’t have a lot of group business, but you benefit from compression and pricing during compression. Are you expecting the majority of your RevPAR growth going forward to be more rate-driven than occupancy?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Potentially, yes. And we do have a percentage of our portfolio that is compact, full service hotels with reasonable amount of meeting space. We like streamlined full service hotels and their group booking pace is up about a 1.5 point, but we do look at our peers who have better data over wider portfolios and it is encouraging. And also, 8 out of the 10 U.S. markets that we track for citywides are also up quite a bit going forward. In fact, those, out of those 8, they were down 25% in citywide bookings in the first quarter and they are all up somewhere between 5% and 15% in each of the next three quarters. So, the citywide trends in addition to the full service hotel bookings trends are actually pretty encouraging.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

That’s really good color. Thanks a lot. That’s all for me.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning, everyone. And just I will just throw my congratulations in as well. A lot of my questions have been answered, but just to follow-up on I think a question that was asked earlier about some of the direct booking detail, because I thought that was interesting. We have heard from in some cases that perhaps there could be a bit of a negative revenue fallout for a short period of time through some of these direct bookings, just as you know particularly the OTA’s change the search orders. Has that been an impact that you have seen? It clearly sounds like it’s been offset elsewhere profitability or through other channels, but have you seen any disruption in just the immediate rollout here for some of the test markets that you have talked about?

Ross Bierkan

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, so far Shaun that’s been negligible. And there is no doubt there is a little bit of gamesmanship going on there as the OTAs face this for the first time. But as it’s adopted by the other brands, it’s certainly the Starwood-Marriott merger is probably something they are not glad to see. We believe the brands will gain the upper hand here. So, that’s one factor. And the other is, well, I will just leave it at that, because it’s unfolding before us, but so far the effect has been negligible.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

And Shaun, I would agree with everything Ross said and add, I think anything that allows the brands and therefore the owners to get again closer to our customers, again, through continuing to grow their loyalty programs and I believe both Hilton and Marriott are probably somewhere in the 55 million members today and growing. And I know that picking up as a part of its programs, I think that’s only going to strengthen that connection which in the long run again will allow us to benefit from lower booking costs through those channels therefore ultimately providing a better price value to customers and benefiting owners. So, we have strongly endorsed it. There is much work to be done and there will be some bumps along the way. But at this point, we are encouraged based on the preliminary data that we have seen so far.

Shaun Kelley

Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Thomas Baltimore for any closing remarks.

Tom Baltimore

Analyst

Thanks again to everybody taking time. And again, I want to apologize for the technical difficulties I think occurred during the webcast. Those that dialed in I think were able to hear. Those on the webcast please know that the full tape and Q&A will be replayed. Don’t hesitate to call me. I have got a few days remaining here, but RLJ is going to be in great shape as they move forward under Ross Bierkan’s leadership and the incredible team of men and women, many of whom have been with me for well north of a decade. So, best wishes as we move forward and we will be talking.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s teleconference. Thank you for your participation and you may disconnect your lines at this time.