Jane Nielsen
Analyst · JP Morgan. You may ask your question
Thank you, Patrice and morning everyone. Our third quarter results demonstrate our teams continued disciplined execution of our strategy we delivered on key metrics including 9% AUR growth in retail, double-digit growth in digital commerce and growth and operating margin expansion, all while delivering both revenue and EPS growth. Importantly, we achieved these results in the context of navigating a more uncertain macro and geopolitical environments. Third quarter revenue increased 5% on a reported basis and 6% in constant currently. Every region delivered top line growth led by strong 10% sales growth in both Europe and Asia on a reported basis and strong holiday season in North America. Adjusted gross margin expanded 90 point in the third quarter and 60 basis points in constant currency benefiting from reduced promotional activity and favorable product, geographic, and channel mix. Adjusted operating margin in the third quarter was 13.9%, up 70 basis points from last year on a reported basis and 50 points in constant currency. Adjusted operating profit dollars grew 11% to last year. SG&A expense excluding marketing slightly leverage our strong top line growth. This quarter we made important proactive investment in our brand and our business. We increase our marketing spend by 18% to 4.2% of sale up from 3.8% last year. This marketing investment is overlapping the strong investments made in the second half of FY '18. Incremental investment centered on our holiday marketing campaign and limited edition collection. In our digital business, we also made investments to strengthen our digital platform and capabilities. We continue to make progress toward our long-term objective of increasing marketing to about 5% of sale while also focusing on productivity to achieve our operating margin expansion goal. Our teams are intensely focused on driving operating efficiencies across our business. For example in the third quarter our teams across the Company's work to our warehouse and office real estate footprint in North America, we completed the sale of our Beachwood distribution facility in North Carolina, reducing our footprint to two buildings from four buildings two years ago. This is an important step in our shared inventory strategy which went live this week, enabling us to reduce our overall inventory, maximize full-price selling, improve the CPU cost of our DTC fulfillment and lower overhead cost. We are also significantly reducing our New York office footprint which includes our corporate office, and design studios. Over the next year, we will consolidate our footprint to four primary locations in the New York try state area, down from over a dozen locations two years ago. Following the move and 2020, we will reduce our square footage, cost per square foot and most importantly drive greater collaboration across our teams. Moving to our segment performance, starting with North America, revenue was up 3% in the third quarter and adjusted operating margin was 22.6% representing a 20 basis point increase to last year's. In the retail channel in North America, we posted 4% comp growth in constant currency as brick-and-mortar comps were flat and our directly operated digital commerce business was up 21% as we anniversary the change of our own digital commerce sites last year's and saw strong double digit AUR increases during this holiday quarter. We are also encouraged by strong performance across our total digital ecosystem including wholesale.com and pure play with double-digit growth in the quarter. We saw continued sequential improvement in our North America brick-and-mortar comp this year, driven by 7% AUR growth in the third quarter, which more than offset traffic headwinds. Moving onto North America wholesale, third quarter was down 3% due to planned reductions in off-price sales. These reductions will continue through Q4. For the full year, we still expect to reduce our off-price penetration within our broader wholesale channel as we strategically reposition off-price back towards its original purpose as an excess inventory clearance vehicle. While we expect volatility in our full-price wholesale business on the quarter-by-quarter basis including the fourth quarter, our underlying trend is improving. For fall 18, our Q3 sell out performance at wholesale improved on both of sequential basis and relative to the prior year. At the end of the quarter, based on our estimates, we believe our inventory at our full-price wholesale partners well-positioned and below prior-year levels. For full year FY '19, we continue to expect underlying revenue to be down low to mid single digits versus the mid to high single-digit declines last year. Our digital wholesale business continued to grow in the third quarter, delivering high single-digit growth to last year with continued share gains in core categories. Moving on to Europe third quarter revenue was up 10% on a reported basis and 13% in constant currency. Adjusted operating margin expanded 100 basis points but were down 40 points in constant currency. SG&A leverage was more than offset by gross margin contraction to do the faster growth in wholesale shipment driven by timing shift from Q4 into Q3. In the retail channel in Europe, comps were up 4% in constant currency, driven by 13% growth in digital commerce and a 3% increase in brick-and-mortar stores, compared to 4% comp decline in Q2. The sequential improvement in our brick-and-mortar trend was primarily driven by our investment to get back into inventory positions notably in outlet and improve the breadth and depth of our product assortment. Comps in our directly operated European digital commerce business also continued to improve following our platform upgrade at the end of Q1. We saw strong quality of sales improvements, double-digit growth in AUR and a reduction in discount rate and are encouraged by the consumer response to our new platform. Across retail, our ongoing effort to improve quality of sales continued you AUR up 11% in the third quarter in Europe retail. Wholesale revenue in Europe was up 20% in constant currency in the third quarter. Our third quarter growth benefited pull forward in the shipment timing which will negatively impacts the fourth quarter. Excluding timing shift, we now expect our reported growth to be mid-single digit range for full year fiscal 19, up from low to mid single-digit previously as we see the benefit from both distribution expansion and comp growth. Turning to Asia, revenue was up 10% on a reported basis and 11% in constant currency in the third quarter. We saw strong performance across every market with positive growth across Japan, Korea, China and Australia. Growth was lead by Mainland China with constant currency revenue growth of almost 40%. Our product and marketing initiatives are resonating well in this region and we continued to increase our digital efforts engagement with local influencers and celebrities. Comps in Asia increased 4% in constant currency, driven by almost 10% AUR growth. We expect continued comp growth in Asia as we invest in our distribution network and increase our marketing initiatives to amplify and elevate the brand. In the third quarter, adjusted operating profit grew 7% to last year, adjusted operating margin was down 30 basis points and down 10 basis points in constant currency, as gross margin improvements were more than half by increased marketing investments in the quarter. Excluding marketing, operating margin in the region would have expanded to last year. Moving on to the balance sheet, our balance sheet is strong and we returned capital to shareholders, reflecting our continued operating progress. We ended the quarter with 2.1 billion in cash and investments and 687 million in total debt, which compared to 2.1 billion in cash and investments and 589 million in debt at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 18. Consistent with our commitment to return cash to shareholders, we repurchased 208 million shares in the third quarter for a total of 400 million year-to-date. Including dividends and share repurchases, we returned a total of 542 million to shareholders this fiscal year-to-date, up from 122 million last year. We will continue to opportunistically buy back stock as a part of our plan to repurchase of billion dollars in shares through fiscal 20. Moving onto inventory, at the end of the third quarter, inventory was up 11% to last year, moderating from a 15% increase in the second quarter. Similar to Q2, our inventory growth in the third quarter reflects strategic actions to support the following; one, earlier receipt of goods to maximize full-price selling; two, comp growth; three, new retail distribution; and four, getting back to normalize inventory in our Europe factory stores. We are also utilizing significantly less airfreight this year in order to reduce shipment costs, which impact level of goods and transit. We remain comfortable with the health of our overall inventory at both retail and wholesale which continues to improve on year-over-year basis. Looking ahead, we expect to continue reducing inventories through the end of this fiscal year to be better aligned with our sales outlook. Now, I'd like to turn to guidance for the full year and fourth quarter of fiscal 19. As a reminder, this guidance excludes restructuring and related charges. We are on track to deliver our goals for this year. We now expect revenues to be up slightly in constant currency for the full year fiscal 19. We expect a slight decline in North America and positive growth in our international businesses. Foreign currency is expected to have 80 to 90 basis points of negative impact on revenue growth in fiscal 19. We now expect operating margin for fiscal 19 to be up 60 basis points in constant currency at the high end of our previous range of 40 to 60 basis points with minimal impact from foreign currency. This guidance reflects our solid performance in the first three quarters of the year and our view on underlying trends as we execute the Next Great Chapter plan. It also incorporates our plan to better align inventory levels to our scales growth outlook. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 19, we expect revenues to be down slightly in constant currency with growth in North America retail and our international businesses offset by a planned reductions in North America off-price sale. Foreign currency is expected to negatively impact revenue growth by about 300 basis points in the quarter. We continue to see several timing related headwinds to revenue growth in the quarter including a shift in European wholesale shipments from Q4 into Q3, and our strategic reduction in off-price sales, which is heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter of this year. The time of Easter also negatively impacts our North America retail comps by about three points in the fourth quarter benefiting Q1 of next year. Operating margin for the fourth quarter is expected to be up about 70 points to last year in constant currency. Foreign currency is expected to negatively impact operating margin by about 60 basis points in the quarter. We now expect capital expenditures of approximately 250 million in fiscal 19. Below our previous guidance of 275 million due to timing shifts into fiscal 20, our estimated effective tax rate for fiscal 19 is changed to 21%. Our fourth quarter effective tax rate is estimated to be 16% to 17%. Finally, over the past several months, we have seen increased volatility in the market from macroeconomic and geopolitical events, and we continue to monitor the trade environment closely. While we’re not immune to pressure in the broader environment, our teams are prepared for multiple scenarios importantly across the Company we have clarity of purpose under Ralph's unifying brand vision, focused strategic with aligned operational and financial goals, and the passion and commitment of our team around the world. We are delivering on our plan and will continue to drive executing that finds the balance between addressing short-term pressures while managing for the long term. As we look forward to fiscal 20, we remain confident in the full year outlook we presented at our investor day in June. This concludes positive top line growth in constant currency along with operating profit growth and margin expansion for the full year. We plan to provide more details on fiscal 20 guidance when we report our fiscal year end results in May. With that, let’s open up the call for your questions.