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Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 10, 2016

$366.45

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ralph Lauren Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2017 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions on how to ask a question will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mrs. Evren Kopelman. Please go ahead.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining Ralph Lauren's second quarter fiscal 2017 conference call. With me today are Stefan Larsson, the company's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jane Nielsen, Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, we will open up the call for your questions, which we ask that you limit to one per caller. During today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including our financial outlook. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Our expectations contain many risks and uncertainties. Principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our SEC filings. To find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing our financial results, you should refer to this morning's earnings release and to our SEC filings that can be found on our Investor Relations website. And now, I will turn the call over to Stefan.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, Evren, and good morning, everyone. Since we last spoke on our earnings call in August, the team and I have continued our intense focus on driving the execution of our Way Forward Plan. The Way Forward Plan, as a reminder, is our multi-year strategy to build on the unique brand strength we have, go back to the core of what made Ralph Lauren iconic, evolve from that core and build the business back to sustainable profitable growth. We are two quarters into executing on the plan and my focus is leading our teams to ensure that every action we take today drives towards our long-term Way Forward goals, while at the same time optimizing near-term performance. Today, I will share my key learnings from the second quarter and then provide an update on our progress in driving the execution of our Way Forward Plan. Then I'm excited about having Jane here with me and will turn it to her to review the details of the company's quarterly financial performance and our outlook for fiscal 2017. In the second quarter, we continued to deliver against our expectations. Our performance keeps us on track to achieve our full-year fiscal 2017 guidance, with some changes in the quarterly flow (3:13). In the second quarter, revenue of $1.8 billion was consistent with our plan, while operating margin was ahead of our target, driven by higher gross margins in our international markets, quality of sales initiatives starting to get traction and planned SG&A expenses shifting into the third quarter. Jane will take you through these in detail. Our revenue in the quarter declined in line with our plan, down 8% versus prior year, with continued and expected larger decline in wholesale than retail. Consistent with our Way Forward Plan, we continued to drive…

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, Stefan, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with all of you and to be a part of the Ralph Lauren team. I'm excited about executing our Way Forward Plan and sharing our progress with you. Second quarter net revenues of $1.8 billion were down 8% to last year on both a reported and constant currency basis. This reflects our quality of sales initiatives starting to take hold and is in line with the guidance we provided in August of mid- to high-single-digit revenue decline. Foreign currency translation did not have a material impact on revenue growth in the second quarter. On an adjusted basis, gross margin was 56.9% in the second quarter, excluding non-cash inventory-related charges of $81 million associated with our restructuring activities. This was 40 basis points above prior year, primarily driven by favorable geographic and channel mix shifts, improved product costing and initiatives to improve quality of sale, primarily through reduced promotional activity in our international businesses. This was partially offset by unfavorable foreign currency effects of approximately 80 basis points. Operating expenses on an adjusted basis were $809 million, excluding $69 million in restructuring and other related charges. These expenses were down 4% compared to last year, primarily as a result of expense initiatives under the Way Forward Plan, including head-count reductions and seven store closures. Store closures in the second quarter were lower than expectations. We delayed closures to take advantage of the peak holiday shopping period and to minimize store closure costs through negotiations with our landlords. Adjusted operating margin in the second quarter was 12.4%, excluding $150 million in restructuring and other related charges. This was 110 basis points below last year due to fixed cost expense de-leverage on lower net revenues, which was partially offset by our improved…

Operator

Operator

The first question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI.

Omar Saad - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Congrats on the progress.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thanks, Omar.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, Omar.

Omar Saad - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Sure. Yeah, I wanted to ask, I mean, kind of a macro question. It's super turbulent out there still, a lot of moving pieces from a top-down perspective in the markets on a global basis. You're making progress on the Way Forward Plan. How do you think about your ability to stick to that plan and for the plan to hold up, given all the changes and turbulence in the marketplace, both from a near-term and a long-term perspective? Thanks.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, Omar. Well, my perspective has always been and will be that the highest performing companies and management teams out there are focused on what they can influence. So, when we look at the Way Forward Plan, it's largely within our control. So, independently of macro environment, it's the same macro environment for us as for all of our competitors, we are focused as a management team to execute on our plan. And that's what both Jane and I and the management team are excited about, is to see the progress that we are making in executing from going from developing the plan to executing the plan, that we are seeing that we are making progress in all the areas that we set out to make progress with. And so, independently of where the environment is going, we are going to stay focused, increase our focus on what we can control, and continue to drive and continue to learn and improve and learn and improve. So, that's my philosophy.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Michael Binetti with UBS.

Michael Binetti - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning and congrats on the progress. And, Jane, it's nice to hear you back.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thanks, Michael.

Michael Binetti - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Let me just ask you two quick questions. You have a lot of moving parts on the retail side, but with some of the store closures pushing into fourth quarter, I think it's important to kind of think about the change in the cadence in terms of what that means looking out past your fiscal 2017. It probably means we'd expect to see some of the year-over-year impact of those closures more focused in the first half of 2018, if that's safe to assume. Can you help us fine-tune the guidance for revenues that were going to be stabilizing in fiscal 2018 based on that change and how we can think about magnitude? And then, just on the gross margin for our models in the third quarter, can the gross margin in the third quarter actually be positive year-over-year if we include that 120-basis-point drag from currency that you mentioned, Jane? Thanks.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. So, Michael, as you look at it, we have looked at those store closures. As I said, we're going to be very pragmatic about capturing holiday season sales and negotiating the best deals possible with our landlords. Obviously, if we close at the end of the year, there will be a spillover effect on growth into FY 2018 from store closures. But remember, those stores are smallest and least productive doors. So, while that will be a factor and we'll play that into our initiatives, overall our guidance for FY 2018 that we will see stabilization is still intact. As we did with the North America comeback plan, we are working through 2018 on an initiative-by-initiative basis, and we'll come back to you in the fourth quarter, as is our practice, and give you much more specific guidance on that. And then, as you look at the third quarter overall in terms of gross margin, here's what I see in terms of headwinds and tailwinds. The tailwinds that we saw in the second quarter of the benefit of product and channel mix, and the benefit of markdown rates, notably in our international markets, those are going to be intact as we move into quarters three and four. The headwind, as you saw in Q2, will be FX, and it will increase. We are at 80 basis points in Q2. It's going to go up to about 120 basis points in Q3. But I still remain optimistic about our ability to move through on a conservative basis to hold, or even grow, gross margin.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Great. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Kate McShane with Citi Research.

Kate McShane - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. My question was on the discontinuation of Denim & Supply. How that could impact the sales outlook as well for next fiscal year? And how should we think about that space in the department stores? It seems to have pretty good real estate and prevalent space in the department store. How should we think about what that will look like going forward?

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Jane do you want to start for the Denim &...

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. Just overall, in terms of Denim & Supply, as we looked at that brand, it's a pretty small portion of our revenue. It's about 2% of global net sales. So it's not a material impact. And further, as we've looked at our portfolio of brands, we think we have a great opportunity in Polo and in Denim specifically to recapture those sales over time. So we feel really good about continuing the plan of refocusing on the core, stretching our very strong brands like Polo to pick up the opportunity that we had in Denim & Supply, and to move forward from there.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

And when it comes to the space in department stores, what's been important for myself and the team when we work on the North American comeback is that it's about the partnership with our wholesale customers, and we have had that from day one. So our space in the department stores comes back to our brand strength, our strong market share with the consumer, and our ability to come back to strength. And what excited me from day one is the excitement from the wholesale partners in driving these initiatives that will drive us jointly back to high performance. One being the shorter lead times, being able to buy much closer in and being able to react to the sales trend in season. That's something that's viewed very favorable by our partners and they have, frankly, been waiting for us to get our assessment done and get going. And now we're in the exciting stage of getting going together.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Lindsay Drucker Mann with Goldman Sachs. Lindsay Drucker Mann - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I had a quick housekeeping question for Jane. Given some of the volatility in currency, I was curious if – I don't think the outlook for FX impact on revenue has changed much, but has your view on the impact of gross profit or earnings changed at all? In other words, is there more of a headwind embedded in your updated guidance or is it consistent? And then my bigger question for Stephan is – thank you for the initial detail on Jeff's thoughts on the North American comeback. You talked about cutting 20% to 25% of your sort of tail distribution points. Can you talk about the complexion of those changes retail versus wholesale? Whether that involves additional store closures of above and beyond what you've already announced? And how you plan to reinvest more aggressively in the core areas that you're sticking with? Thanks.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah, Lindsay, as we looked at FX impact, we have seen an impact overall to FX, and largely it's playing out in terms of gross margin. Our guidance is still intact. We are accommodating that change within our operations. But as I look at operating profits, foreign currency will have about 100-basis-point impact to overall operating margin for the full year. Do you want to do the 20% to...

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yes. So, when it comes to the 20% to 25%, cutting the tail of the distribution in wholesale, it's the shops. It's the bottom 20%, 25%, the least productive shops. So, even though it's a high number in terms of share of the shops being cut, it's a very low number in terms of sales and even lower number in terms of profit, both for ourselves and our partners. So it follows the same strategy as the assortment strategy. It goes back to the core, and the core doors and the core shops for us are very important. And we're going to refocus our energy there and making sure that we provide an outstanding shopping experience there, and that will drive our comeback.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Bob Drbul with Guggenheim Securities.

Robert Drbul - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Jane, welcome. Congratulations.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, Bob.

Robert Drbul - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

The question that I have is, can you talk a little bit about tourism trends both in the U.S. and in your international stores and how that's impacting the results?

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah, Bob. As we've looked at foreign tourist trends overall, we continue to see a decline in overall tourist traffic. But I will tell you, both in the first and the second quarter, we've seen an improvement. Although they're still down, we've seen an improvement versus prior year. So it's not as severe as it was, but we do still see that traffic down, and it's most notable in our outlet business.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

Ike Boruchow - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome aboard, Jane.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you.

Ike Boruchow - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Just curious, so wholesale down 10% in Q2. I think North America in Q1 was down around mid-teens. I'm just curious if you could comment on what the North America piece of wholesale looked like in the second quarter. And then, just for the back half, to hit your plan for the year, what you're kind of expecting out of the North America wholesale channel as well? Thank you.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. Overall, Ike, we do see that North America – one of the reasons that we focused the North America comeback plan to high performance, the first phase is on wholesale is because it's so important to our business and we're not satisfied with the overall trends. So, as we continue to focus on pulling back inventory, closing doors, moving back from the heavy promotional activity, we expect to see continued pressure in that North America wholesale business and that was contemplated in our guidance.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Steven Zaccone - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. This is Steve Zaccone on for Matt today. Thanks very much for taking our questions. I had a question, your second-quarter comps came in slightly below our model. Just looking for the full year, to hit your top-line guidance, how should we think about comps in the second half of the year?

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Well, we are holding to our overall comp guidance of down mid- to high-single digits. So I think you can do the math and you'll see a little bit of an uptick in the second half.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Thank you. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana L. Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and nice to see the progress.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Hi, Dana.

Dana L. Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group LLC

Analyst

Hi. Jane, welcome. Jane, as you think about turnarounds you've done in the past, what's most similar or dissimilar compared to what you've executed in the past? And how do you see the progress here? And Stefan, how do you look at the three brands that you're focusing on, the difference between price and margins, as you continue to evolve the business? Thank you.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah, Dana. I'd say that one of the things that when I came into Ralph Lauren that pleasantly surprised me is this is an organization that's really ready for change. And although Stefan unveiled the Way Forward Plan in June, I think the organization has embraced it enthusiastically. The difference between from what I see at Ralph Lauren is that we have to work in partnership with our wholesale partners in order to effect this comeback that we've outlined. I think, as we unveiled the North America comeback plan, that is certainly our intent. So the need for partnership is one of the most notable things that I see. But, overall, obviously with the early signs of progress, I'm very encouraged.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

And, Dana, when it comes to our brands and our progress within our brands and my thoughts connecting through pricing and margin there. So, as I shared in the opening remarks, I'm excited by the work that Valérie and the brand teams are doing in being very strategic in identifying the unproductive product tail, the assortment tail, and cutting that. And we see and measure the progress on that. But that's just an enabler to then put more focus and more creativity and to refocus on executing the core. And then, thirdly, it will be about adding strategic newness. And so it should have a positive margin affect. And as of now, we are early into the execution of the plan and I see the brand teams taking the steps that are necessary for us to unlock the strength in the assortment. So I'm excited even though it's early days.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Christian Buss with Credit Suisse. Christian Roland Buss - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Yes. Hello. Congratulations. And I'd like to ask what your plans are on the outlet side of the business. The penetration of outlets is increasing as store closures start. How do you think about the health of that outlet business and the potential for that outlet business and the mix over the long-term?

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yes. So my take on outlet is that it's an important channel for us and it's an important channel to keep in balance with the full-price selling. So, as we have mentioned before, our outlet presence in North America, given that that's our biggest market, is not high in relation to many other very strong brands and high-performing brands. So what we are doing is two things when it comes to outlet. We are making sure that we keep outlet in balance with the rest of the channels, so that we can deliver on our overall Way Forward goals, which is to strengthen our brand and drive sustainable profitable sales growth. And in parallel, we are optimizing the outlet business that we have.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. And I would say that so many of the Way Forward Plan initiatives, the improvement of product assortment, buying closer in to demand are going to benefit the outlet channels, breakthrough marketing, are all going to benefit the outlet channel as well.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

And one of our strengths as a brand is the masspirational appeal of what Ralph and the team have created over some 50 years that it appeals to absolute luxury, as you can see on the runway show that we had where we went back to the DNA, the mansion on Madison Avenue, and added newness and we created 2, 2.5 times the media value. And then we have aspirational luxury in Polo and then we have entry through our outlets. So the strength for us is that appeal to every part of the market and our job as a management team is to keep the right balance.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Great. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Jay Sole with Morgan Stanley. Jay Sole - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thank you. My question is about your retail business. Can you talk about how unit demand has changed as the ASPs have gone up? And has that met your expectations and have you tested different ASPs to see how demand is impacted as prices change?

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. So what we've seen, Jay, is we are always testing pricing. Pricing is such an important lever in our market. And what we've seen in Asia, where we've seen our AURs go up or ASPs go up 10%, is that we've been able, if I take outdoor closures, is that we've been able to hold on to most of our unit demand. And so, that's really the sweet spot for us. Obviously, this Way Forward Plan is predicated on a long-term rise of AURs, but we'll take those sequentially over time as we're largely happy with our price points. But that is a part of the Way Forward Plan.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Erinn Murphy with Piper Jaffray. Erinn E. Murphy - Piper Jaffray & Co.: Great. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on the wholesale strategy in North America. Could you just quantify the sales volume of that 20% to 25% doors that you're closing and then the timeframe of shuttering those doors? And then, secondly, related to that strategy, you talked about further partnering with your top wholesale accounts, but reducing product going to value, or value channels. With that as the context, how do you view the role of T.J.Maxx going forward? Thanks.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

So, Erinn, as I look at the volumes in, what I'm calling, what we're saying is the tail of our distribution, that 20%, 25% of the doors. It's about 1% of overall sales, so not a material amount of sales. And obviously it's not a material amount of sales, and it's our least profitable points of distribution in the wholesale doors. And we've really taken time to look across the wholesale doors and look at points of distribution. Obviously, we have a portfolio of brand, look at points of distribution within the department store, and go in surgically to eliminate the least profitable and lowest sales points of distribution even within the door.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

And when it comes to the distribution overall, including off-price, our distribution strategy is to follow where the consumer is going and keeping the balance between the different channels. And one way of improving the quality of sales and improving the full-price channels' performance is to reduce the buys. So it's the number one driver in the North American comeback is to reduce our overall inventory buys to better match demand. And the way we reduce them is one is reducing them to demand and buying closer in, it's a way of reducing, and being more accurate and having to buy less. So our idea is to buy less and sell more at the higher AUR.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. And Erinn, right now we're working with our wholesale partners on this effort to cut the door tail and we're adjusting our buys, as we speak, to make sure that that's fully incorporated into our buys.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay. We'll take one last question, and then come back for closing remarks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our final question comes from John Kernan with Cowen & Company. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in. Welcome, Jane.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Thank you, John. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Stefan, I know the Way Forward Plan, two of the four key pillars did center around sourcing and supply chain. So I'm wondering what you're seeing in terms of product costs and your ability to bring product costs down as we look into spring 2017. And can you just comment on product costs and any direction there, and the impact on gross margin would be helpful?

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

So it's probably a combination between Jane and I. But I can start in terms of I'm very pleased with seeing how our sourcing teams are rising to the Way Forward challenge, and sourcing starting to become a strategic value driver for us. So, one very concrete progress that we have made there is to platform our fabric. So, when we platform and consolidate our fabric of our core products, we can get a number of benefits at the same time. We increased the quality, to start with, because we are going to compete with quality. So we increased quality. We increased our ability to negotiate the better cost price for that fabric. And we increased our flexibility and can shorten our lead times dramatically. So, that's just one of a number of sourcing initiatives that we are driving that will have a direct impact on the P&L over time.

Jane Hamilton Nielsen - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Yeah. Just in terms of gross margin, so I looked at this quarter sort of in biggest impact. Our biggest impact was the favorable geographic and channel mix. Improved product costing was our second most favorable impact, followed by initiative to reduce markdowns, especially in our international market. I do view this as a long-term tailwind for us. Obviously, given the current long cycle times, it'll play out over time. But I do view it as something that we'll see as a favorable tailwind to gross margin.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

This is something that Halide and the team, the sourcing team, they are also taking a partnership approach with our best suppliers and partnering up with them to unlock joint value. And we are seeing good progress on their work. John Kernan - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay.

Evren Kopelman - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

Okay.

Stefan Larsson - Ralph Lauren Corp.

Management

So, that was the question. So, in closing, I would like to say that I'm excited by the good progress of starting to execute our Way Forward Plan. I'm very grateful for how the team has embraced this and how we step-by-step start to execute and drive improvements and learn from those improvements. So this will be a continuous improvements journey that we just started, but I'm very excited by that. Excited also by the North American comeback plan that we have a strategy to come back to strength in North America. And I'm pleased that we're keeping the guidance that we set out during the Investor Day. So, with that, I would like to thank you for joining the call today and look forward to speak with you in a quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.