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Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, May 9, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ralph Lauren Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions on how to ask a question will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. James Hurley. Please go ahead.

James Hurley

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on Ralph Lauren’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal ‘14 Conference Call. The agenda for this morning’s call includes Jacki Nemerov, our President and Chief Operating Officer, who will give you an overview of the year and comment on our broader strategic initiatives. Chris Peterson, our Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Financial Officer, will provide operational and financial perspective on the fourth quarter, in addition to reviewing our initial expectations for fiscal ‘15. After the company’s prepared remarks, we will open the call up for your questions, which we ask that you limit to one per caller. During today’s call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including our financial outlook. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Our expectations contain many risks and uncertainties. The principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our SEC filings. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Jacki.

Jacki Nemerov

Management

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to be reporting better-than-expected fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2014 results today. Our 14% revenue growth and 23% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter were result of double-digit top line expansion in each of our major geographic regions, with Europe and Asia leading the pace in addition to strong profit flow-through for core operations. The results reflect an acceleration from the third quarter’s strong growth rate despite a challenging retail environment, particularly in the United States. Our full year sales growth of 7% and earnings per share of $8.43 represents record levels for us and were achieved even with substantial investments in our growth initiatives and infrastructure, and in the phase of unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds through the quarter. When we provided our fiscal 2014 outlook a year ago, we characterized it as a tale of two halves. We spoke about our spending margin being down in the first half impacted by more modest sales growth and upfront expenses related to the integration of formally licensed operations and pre-opening costs for new stores. And we spoke about our second half in terms of an acceleration in revenue trends and improved profitability, as a result of realizing the benefits of those newly integrated businesses and the store openings. The year played out as we anticipated, in fact a bit better than expected in the second half, which clearly demonstrates the discipline of our organization, to both, manage the business in real-time and plan for the future. Fiscal 2014 was also a year of important progress on each of the company’s long-term growth objectives of extending our direct-to-consumer reach, expanding our international presence, innovation with new products and investing in our infrastructure. Our achievements included the creation of…

Chris Peterson

Management

Thank you, Jacki, and good morning, everyone. As you’ve seen in this morning’s press release, we’re reporting strong fourth quarter sales and profit results today. Let me start with a brief recap of the quarter. Consolidated net revenues rose 14% to $1.9 billion, reflecting robust wholesale segment growth and strong retail segment expansion. Revenue was up double-digits in each of our geographic regions during the quarter. The revenue results were better than the expectations we articulated in February due to stronger wholesale revenue as we gained market share in North America and returned to robust growth in Europe. For the full year, net revenues grew 7% to $7.4 billion and were up 9% excluding the impact of discontinued businesses and foreign exchange. Gross profit margin of 56.2% was 310 basis points below the prior year period. The decline in gross profit margin is primarily attributable to the mix impacts from the integration of the Chaps men’s sportswear operations, the mixed impact from stronger wholesale revenue growth and negative foreign currency effects in the quarter. Operating expenses rose 4% to $825 million, but the operating expense rate of 44.2% was 400 basis points below the prior year. We delivered substantial cost leverage on strong sales growth, which was achieved despite continued investments in the company’s long-term strategic growth initiatives in infrastructure. Operating income rose an impressive 24% to $225 million in the fourth quarter, which was achieved on top of a 33% increase in the prior year period. Operating margin improved 90 basis points to 12%, which was at the high-end of the outlook we provided in February. Operating income of $1.1 billion for the full year of fiscal 2014 period was modestly above the prior year. Operating margin declined 100 basis points to 15.2% due to unfavorable foreign exchange and…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) One moment please for the first question. The first question comes from Omar Saad with ISI Group. Your line is open. Omar Saad – ISI Group: Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for all the color heading into ‘15. It’s really helpful. I wanted to ask you a question to maybe get you to elaborate a little bit on some of the realignments in the organizational shifts that are going on and the shared services, especially in the context of the recent announcement around Valerie becoming the President of the Luxury Ralph Lauren brands. Are you going to do something similar maybe with the Polo brand as its growing, and how it kind of all fits together and what’s some of the benefits do you think are some of these realignments around the org structure? Thanks.

Jacki Nemerov

Management

What we’ve done is we’ve really looked at our overall structure, and what our plan was to consolidate our viewpoint of all three regions. So Europe and Asia had already had a consolidated approach between our retail business and our wholesale business. We decided that there was value in doing that in the Americas, and in looking at the overall business in the region between North America and now South Americas in that world, and to be able to really strategize our viewpoint in an omni channel way. So to really look across our wholesale businesses, our retail businesses and make the best decisions as to how we should move forward in the region, rather than with a more siloed approach that we had operated under. So the leadership of that is under Joy Herfel, who has spent 25 years in our company and ran our Polo and children’s businesses, and has obviously run our biggest and most profitable businesses within the company. Reporting to Joy is Kim Roy, who is Head of our U.S. Wholesale business, also a veteran of Ralph Lauren and has been with the company for 11 years. Has done an outstanding job in building the world of Lauren and Chaps and has great visibility during that time for the – to strengthen the balance of our wholesale division. And Kim is often running in her new role. We also promoted and expanded Don Baum’s role, who was Head of all of Manufacturing and Sourcing. We really saw great benefit in combining manufacturing sourcing with supply chain, and Don now has full oversight of that end-to-end seamless execution from beginning to the end of process from distribution out to our stores and our customers. And we believe that there will be great benefit overtime in the…

Chris Peterson

Management

The other thing I would say, Omar, to your question is that, as we’re – really a lot of these moves are meant to globalize the company. And it starts with an underpinning from a system standpoint which is what the SAP project is about, which is what the e-commerce re-platforming project is about. A lot of the management moves that we’re doing are taking multiple organizations that we had acquired over the years through license take-backs that operated in silos, and combining organizations so that instead of doing the same job three times or four times, we do it once. And over time, what we believe and what we’re already starting to see opportunity for is we think that’s going to lead to significant opportunity for cost leverage, which should result in SG&A leverage overtime as we get into the new structure and as we begin to leverage. It also should allow us to be more consistent as a brand across the world, and it should allow us to rollout faster new initiatives from an innovation standpoint. So we’re excited about it. I think we’re early days into sort of this globalization. And I think a lot of these themes are going to play out more fully when we get into fiscal ‘16 than in fiscal ‘15.

James Hurley

Management

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Binetti with UBS. Michael Binetti – UBS: Good morning guys. I guess two quick questions here. One is, as I think about the factory outlets in the U.S. I think those have been struggling with traffic for a lot of last year. And those are obviously very big percent of the U.S. retail comps. Can you tell us a little bit more about your thinking in that channel based on what you’re seeing now, and if you think sales there turn back to positive in fiscal ‘15? And then Chris, you also talked about – obviously gave us a lot of good color on a number of initiatives that are baked into the SG&A guidance for this year. There was a lot of projects that have varying durations, and as we look at the longer term comments that you’re making and think about our models which tend to focus on longer term for the Ralph Lauren company in particular, how you guys are thinking about maybe some of the payback period analysis that you did, or whether the EBIT margins can start to expand as soon as fiscal ‘16? Thanks.

Chris Peterson

Management

Okay. I’ll start with the factory channel. So in the fourth quarter, we saw actually very good growth in the factory channel in Europe and Asia. The U.S. factory business was down in the fourth quarter and that was because we saw traffic – again our fourth quarter is Jan through March, and the traffic trend that we experienced in the fourth quarter was down double-digits in traffic in that period, which had a significant impact in the company’s comps. The encouraging part of that is that in the first quarter, to-date, the first part of April and May, we’re already seeing the traffic trends reaccelerate in the U.S. to the factory outlet channel. So we’re seeing not the same trend that we saw in January-March in the U.S. market. From a longer term perspective on some of the margin trends going forward. I think you’re right that some of the things have different payback periods. So I would characterize if you wanted to parse it into two broad areas. The infrastructure investments that we’re making, whether it be SAP or the e-commerce platform, we’re likely to be in investment mode on an aggregate of those two things for a couple of years, because the e-commerce re-platforming is a two or three year project, where you’re investing before you turn on the new platform. On the flipside, the Polo investments that we’re making, whether it be women’s Polo or the flagship stores, the start of the rollout of new stores, we should start seeing and be able to report a much stronger progress on that as we get towards the end of this fiscal year, because we’ll have experience in the market when women’s Polo launches in the fall, and we’ll began to get some initial reads from the stores that we’re opening. So it’s too soon for us to say how all of that nets together from a fiscal ‘16 and beyond perspective externally, because we typically provide guidance one year out, but that’s a little bit of how we expect the underlying trends to play out.

James Hurley

Management

Next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from David Glick with Buckingham Research. David Glick – Buckingham Research: Thank you. Just continuing on that trend, I think the concern that we’re hearing from investors is that the operating margin has been down, let’s just call it 100 basis points a year FY’14 and then kind of taking the midpoint in FY’15. You’ve given us a lot of qualitative. I mean is it reasonable to assume that you could see at least some margin stabilization in FY’16 assuming that the Polo initiative and the new store openings open as you plan them? And then second for Jacki. Just when will we start to see the Polo women’s merchandize in stores? And I am curious what to make up the American Living appearance at Macy’s, whether that’s a significant opportunity for you guys?

Chris Peterson

Management

So I guess on the operating margin. Let me start with fiscal ‘14 just to make sure we’re clear. So in fiscal ‘14, the primary driver of the operating margin being down in fiscal ‘14 versus the year ago was foreign exchange. So if you took out the impact of foreign exchange on our profitability, our earnings per share would be up double-digits in fiscal ‘14. In fiscal ‘15, I think we’ve provided perspective around the impacts of the investments, which together account for 200 basis points of the operating margin pressure, which the midpoint of our guidance range is down 100 basis points. So if you looked at the operating margin excluding those investments, the operating margin would be up 100 basis points in fiscal ‘15. As I mentioned on fiscal ‘16, there is going to be varying impacts of these investments, because they have different payback periods. And we’ll provide more color on that in our normal guidance pattern as we go forward.

Jacki Nemerov

Management

On Polo women’s, David, we’ll start to ship Polo women’s in mid-to-end August and the first impact will be in our retail stores over the Labor Day weekend, and in our wholesale customers approximately the same time. We are building beautiful shops as a backdrop for the Polo women’s brand. We have a lot of confidence in that opportunity, and feel that, as I said we can get relation to what we are doing in Polo men’s and which we’re fairly confident about that we can really grow that business and we’re really excited about our fall shipments for that brand. As it relates to American Living, as you know we had exclusively at J.C. Penny up until the time that they have their change in management. And for many reasons we decided to withdraw the brand from J.C. Penny. Interestingly, we had built it into quite a big successful volume brand for J.C. Penny and felt that it had that a great future and kind of put it on the sidelines until we could determine what the next opportunity might be. We had a great conversation with Macy’s and we decided that we would utilize the American Living brand in conjunction with their American Icon marketing strategy which incorporates Memorial Day into July 4 into Labor Day. And so we shipped the brand for beginning of April. And it has been a very exciting launch so far, and we are very, very pleased with the results. We have another concept package going in for holiday. And then I believe we’ll determine how we build the brand and opportunity from there. And that’s – as I said, it’s very early days at this point, but nice results.

James Hurley

Management

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Kate McShane with Citi Research. Kate McShane – Citigroup: Thanks, good morning. Is there any sales pulled into Q4 from Q1 and that’s why we’re seeing deceleration in the Q1 top line guidance, or just Q1 fiscal year ‘15. And is there a change in guidance as you conveyed today on the top line, I had noted that you were guiding high-single-digits for fiscal year ‘15 and now 6% to 8% it seems a little bit lower than that, so I was hoping you can reconcile that for us? Thanks.

Chris Peterson

Management

Sure. So on the first question, I would say, yes. There was a little bit of shift in timing of the wholesale business. March and April are in a lot of cases viewed somewhat together. And so we do have a set of shipments that go out March 25. Some of those shipments went out a little bit early at the request of our customers, but it wasn’t a material impact. One of the key drivers of that is Easter. So I think it’s probably a fair comment that looking at the wholesale business on a rolling basis as opposed to a quarter-to-quarter basis is a more accurate – is a better reflection of the trends in that business. And you see that in our guidance for the first quarter where we had very strong wholesale shipments in the January-March period, but in the April to June period, we’re effectively guiding wholesale shipments about flat versus year ago. Over the six month period, it will be a very strong wholesale pick-up. On the top line for the total company, yes, we expect high-single-digits. I think 6% to 8% is consistent with that in my view. So there is really no change in our thinking there going forward.

James Hurley

Management

Next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Lindsay Drucker Mann with Goldman Sachs. Lindsay Drucker Mann – Goldman Sachs: Thanks. Good morning everyone. Just to follow-up on that question. It sounds as if – even if we were to adjust for some of the shipment timing that you U.S. wholesale business is still running up very strong high-single, maybe a low-double-digit type of growth. Is that – first of all, am I right in thinking about it that way? And second of all, do you contemplate that sort of growth rate continuing as we move into the back part of the year? And for your sales guidance of the 6% to 8% for the full year, how much incremental sales from these new initiatives are contemplated in that guidance?

Chris Peterson

Management

So yes, I would say that the U.S. wholesale business continues to operate very strongly. If you look at the sell-out of the business and our customers, we continue to gain share consistently in that channel. I think the other encouraging thing in our wholesale segment results, is as we talked about at the last call, we had made a strategic pullback in shipments primarily in Southern Europe on the specialty store channel. We’ve now annualized that, and so we’re starting to see a return to strong wholesale growth in the European business as well. And so we had a double-digit increase in wholesale in the quarter in Europe as well. So I think the trends in our wholesale business broadly are very encouraging, and I think we expect them to continue. On the new initiatives, I think the 6% to 8% revenue growth is effectively organic growth in our view. There is no acquisitions in that. There is no foreign exchange in that. I think the women’s Polo impact during the year is going to be somewhat muted, because we’re launching in fall, so we’ll have a part year impact, and we’re replacing the Blue Label business. And so during the transition, I think we see opportunity, but I think we see even stronger opportunity as we begin to get into fiscal ‘16, as we really get behind the women’s Polo line, and as we open more freestanding Polo stores.

James Hurley

Management

Next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Liz Dunn with Macquarie. Liz Dunn – Macquarie Capital: Hi, thanks for taking my question. If Roger is listening, best of luck. It’s been an absolute pleasure. And Jacki and Chris, thank you so much for all the detail, particularly quantifying some of the things like e-commerce and the amount of pressure that you’re expecting next year on the operating margin. In terms of that 6% to 8%, I don’t mean to keep hitting the same point, but does that imply that as we go forward perhaps beyond fiscal ‘15 that the 6% to 8% will accelerate or could potentially accelerate as some of these growth initiatives begin to really kick in? And then relative to the accessories business, are you Jacki, do you think that the progress that we’ve seen so far has been slower than you anticipated, or is it just one of these businesses that takes time to build and now you’re finally seeing some signs that that growth is beginning to accelerate? Thanks.

Chris Peterson

Management

I’ll address the long-term revenue growth. So on the long-term revenue growth, I think our view is that we’d like to try to target high-single-digit growth, sort of on a continuous basis, but in any given year I think we want to be prepared for mid-single-digit growth. And a lot of it’s going to depend on the macroeconomic environment, the timing of initiatives, the timing of store openings. But I think our goal, if you will, is to try to be a consistent high-single-digit type of grower.

Jacki Nemerov

Management

On the accessory front, Liz, I think that we are pleased with our introduction, beginning in accessories in 2008 as that was not a core competence of the company, and we have made it one since in two critical areas, one being the luxury accessory business. And I think that over this last year, we’ve seen some great traction with the Ricky and continue to fuel that opportunity. We’ve also had some great success with our Lauren accessory business. And we are seeing very nice growth in that brand as well. So I would say that in our whole leather goods category, we’ve accomplished a 20% compound annual rate growth. So, look, we always hope for more, but we are pleased with where we are and we think we finally have put in the right foundations to continue to build from.

James Hurley

Management

Next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Erinn Murphy with Piper Jaffray. Erinn Murphy – Piper Jaffray: Thank you. Good morning. I was just hoping, if you could follow up on the strength that you saw in Europe in the fourth quarter. Could you elaborate a little bit more about country specific regional trends that you are seeing? And then with the pace of wholesale growth there, should we assume that whether you are also seeing that type of double-digit growth in the fall order books? Thank you.

Chris Peterson

Management

Yes. So I guess if I were to step back and talk about Europe for the year, we’ve pretty consistently grown our retail segment revenues in Europe, double-digits every quarter for the past year, but we saw wholesale really start to accelerate a little bit in the third quarter and then get to double-digits in the fourth quarter. And that’s what allowed us to translate into double-digit growth in Europe in the fourth quarter, with both, retail and the wholesale at that pace. I think we’re at a place where we expect that to continue in terms of revenue growth going forward in a strong way. If you look at the trends within the region, I think we’re seeing the U.K. is probably the strongest part of our business, the GDP has improved there markedly. I think we’re seeing Southern Europe stabilize. So it’s no longer going down, it’s not necessarily going up, but it’s stabilizing. And I think we’re seeing some strength in the Scandinavia region in Germany and some stability in France. The other encouraging trend that I would point to in Europe is that, as we’ve invested in resetting the brand image in Greater China, particularly with the opening of the men’s Prince’s flagship store and a number of the other luxury stores, we’re starting to see the Chinese tourist business in Europe increase at a significant rate, off of a low base, but we’re up very, very strong double-digits in terms of our business to Chinese tourists in Europe, which is helping to fuel the growth of that business right now. And we think as we open the Lee Gardens flagship store and increase the marketing and advertising spending behind Greater China, where we have a low awareness, we think that’s going to translate through both in Europe and in the U.S. business.

James Hurley

Management

Operator, we’re ready for our last question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The final question comes from Joan Payson with Barclays. Joan Payson – Barclays Capital: Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to ask another question on Europe actually and the Polo full price opportunity in particular. Given your store network over there, how many retail stores do you think the region could support overall? And you also mentioned the 100 to 200 store number for Polo full price being a little more weighted towards Asia and Latin America, but how do you really think about the allocation in terms of the regional perspective with those?

Chris Peterson

Management

I think we see a big opportunity for full price stores in Europe. We’re in the middle of prioritizing locations around the world and we’re doing it on a global basis. I think, we think there is both in opportunity in Western Europe and we think there is an opportunity in Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East for Polo stores. If you think about the allocation of that 100 to 200, I would expect that maybe we could have 20% to 30% of those stores in Europe over time.

Jacki Nemerov

Management

We’re excited also about our London opening on Regent Street for Polo, which we believe will set the tone for Polo in Europe.

Chris Peterson

Management

All right. Well, thank you for joining us this morning. I think we’re pleased with the fourth quarter results that we have reported today I think. And we’re looking forward to coming out and talking more about it and following up with you. And please feel free to call Jim or myself with any additional questions. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect