Roger N. Farah
Analyst · UBS.
Okay. Well, let's talk about Europe. There's a lot of macro issues to deal with, and I'm not going to attempt to go through all of that with you. Our first quarter, when you put retail, wholesale together, on a constant currency basis was plus 3%. And while that's certainly down from where we've run in seasons past and years past, I think it's a very respectable number. We're seeing skittishness by our wholesale partners and orders, future bookings and forward orders. They are operating cautiously as their footfalls and business has been down. So they're trying to increase their turns and therefore, are looking more cautiously at initial orders. I think if business picks up, we'll be able to get some of that business back through replenishment. But net-net, by the end of the year, if we hit our forecast, we're looking to be flat to single digit up in Europe, depending on exchange rate. I think it's going to be lower wholesale businesses and higher retail businesses. And so we'll keep updating you every quarter, but that's our current point of view. The margin, as Jacki touched on and you've heard from others, we have certainly seen return of cotton, which is our primary raw material to pre-spike levels, somewhere in the low-80s, mid-80s per pound, which is a more normalized level. I think we'll begin to see that impact in the second quarter in the balance of the year. We talked in the past about wholesale inventories turning much faster. And therefore, new receipts with lower cost of goods go into the markup on sales, and that's what we're reporting. Markup and margin on sales, not receipts, but it comes through the wholesale distribution faster because of the turning inventory. Comes through more slowly in retail, where you've got on hand that have prior cost of goods, which were higher. And as the new receipts come in and they blend and they work their way through, I think we'll see the retail impact later in the year. So all in all, we're pleased with the retail prices, as I said earlier, we'll maintain. Cost of goods will start to come down. Obviously mix product categories will make that move around a little bit. But we think you'll start seeing that return in the second quarter.