Michael Nierenberg
Analyst · KBW. Your line is open
Thanks for joining our third quarter earnings call. For the quarter, we had a very busy quarter and our underlying business continues to produce terrific results. While both the equity and debt markets were extremely volatile in the quarter our investments continue to perform well despite the volatility that we've seen. Our business should do well in all interest environments and we have a couple of slides in our presentation that should be helpful in how to think about that. In the quarter, we were very active in our Servicer Advance business. We generated liquidity of approximately $300 million by paying off HSART notes and doing some new financings. On our Call business, we continue to work on strategies to accelerate timelines to be able to call deals in a quicker fashion. We’re working with our Servicer partners as well as outside counsel to be able to do that. Our Non-Agency portfolio grew by 25% during the quarter, and as far as earnings we announced record core earnings, record dividends and we’ll continue to do all we can to create value for our shareholders. We believe our current investment portfolio will continue to deliver excellent results as we look forward. I’ll now refer to our supplement which has been posted online, so we’ll begin on Page 2. I thought it would be helpful to start with a quick recap of who we are. We are an asset manager who deploys capital in three core strategies across the mortgage universe, which is a $10 trillion market. We are not an operating business. Since our spin in 2013 we've generated a 20% total return life-to-date. Our dividends, we paid 593 million of dividends. Today our current dividend yield is 15% and while that's a lot higher quite frankly than where we'd like to be trading, we think there is lots of room for upside and keep in mind in a more normalized markets we've seen companies such as HLSS trade at a dividend yield of 7%. For the quarter, we had record core earnings of $113 million or $0.49 per diluted share. Our GAAP income was $55 million or $0.24 per diluted share. In the quarter, we increased our dividend to $0.46 or a $106 million and on a year-over-year that's up 31%. So overall, I think our results have been terrific. We had a good quarter, if you look back to Q4 of 2013 we've grown core earnings from $0.28 to where they are today as $0.49. And now you’ll flip to Page 4. I want to point out why we think we’re different than some of our peers in the marketplace. Quite frankly you simply can't recreate our investment portfolio. We have critical mass in MSRs, Servicer Advances and when you think about our MSRs and there is a couple of good pages in the presentation which I'll take you through, we own legacy MSRs which should realistically be pretty much agnostic in all interest rate environments. As you look at our liquidity, we have the ability to access up to $1 billion of liquidity. We have Call Rights on approximately 200 billion of the Non-Agency market which is about 30% to 35% on the market and you can see by the right side of our slide, we continue to try to grow our dividends from Q4 ’13 where we were at $0.35 to today where we’re $0.46. On Page 5, we believe that we are currently undervalued by the market. While our performance on a relative basis is good, we cannot take that for granted as the overall market has truly been punished and quite frankly we are disappointed where our stock price is. Currently, we're covered by 10 firms all of whom have a bar rating or overweight or outperform rating on our stock price today. On Page 6, I want take you through the quarter and some of the things that we did and again a very-very active quarter particularly in our Servicer Advance business. We issued the first Servicer Advance deal in 18 months. The affect of that reduced interest rate risk lowered our cost of funds and lengthened the term of our financing. We paid off $2.5 billion of HSART notes which were issued by HLSS and those notes were paid off at par. By doing this, we increased our advance rate by 6% and created an additional $200 million of liquidity. On October 14th, there was a court ruling and as expected there was the court rule there was no EOD under the HSART indenture. The trustee who was holding $92 million of our money in escrow released the money to us, so again another positive liquidity event for the Company. During and subsequent to Q3, we purchased 300 million of Servicer Advance AAA debt with IRRs targeted in the mid-teens. We think the asset class is obviously a very good asset class for us and will continue to generate outsized returns in the marketplace and if you look at the marketplace today on Servicer Advances it's become a lot more active since we issued our first deal last month. For our own Servicer Advance financings we expect to be in the market in the next two weeks with an advance deal as well of about $800 million. In our Call business, we recalled seven Non-Agency deals in the third quarter totaling $216 million and subsequent to Q3 we called another 14 deals in the amount of $360 million. We expect to be in the market early next week with the $500 million securitization. Again we have a good slide in our presentation which will illustrate the economics on how to think about that deal. In Excess MSRs, we funded $19 billion of previously committed MSRs that we announced last quarter. As we think about our Excess MSR business and from a licensing perspective, we’re currently working on getting licensed to be an owner of MSRs in all 50 states. Today, we’re licensed in 30 states and we chose this route as we feel it's a much more prudent route relative to going out and buying a mortgage company as we think they should be able to be licensed in all 50 states by the end of, hopefully by the end of the first quarter of 2016. As you flip to Page 7 take a look at new residential today. Again we have critical mass in our three core investment areas. Excess MSRs’ $1.6 billion market value, Servicer Advances of $666 million of market value and you could see in the quarter we despite certain Servicer Advances paying down we continue to increase our investment in that sector. On the Residential Securities & Call Rights, we grew our portfolio approximately 25%, so now capital deployed there is $434 million as of the end of Q3. Again that’s very consistent with our desire to try to continue with our Call Right strategy and to the extent that we can accelerate time as continue to do so. On Opportunistic Investments that’s really our consumer loan portfolio, as well as some loans that we continue to acquire as a result of our Call strategy and cash at the end of the quarter was $348 million and I’ll talk to that a little bit later. On Page 8 and 9, this talks a little bit about our Excess MSR portfolio. I think the story here is a great one. When you think about our Excess MSRs they are not new production MSRs, so what does that mean? What it means is there you’re going to have much more stable prepayments, you’ll have less volatility as the MSRs are backed by borrowers who have been in their homes for approximately 10 years. They have seen the low in rates, they have lower credit scores and higher LTVs. We have stayed very true to our investment thesis and stayed away from newer production MSRs as the volatility on a quarterly basis as rates rally could be a little bit much. If you flip to Page 9, I want to highlight a couple of things why we’re different again in the Excess MSR portfolio. Our net speeds are 38% slower than the industry when incorporating recapture and again that’s coupon-to-coupon. 100% of our MSRs have recaptured provisions whether they are serviced by Nationstar Mortgage or by Ocwen. If you look to the bottom left part of our page, our average loan size of 157,000 versus industry loan size of 198,000, a lower FICO score of 660 versus 731 and our higher LTV of 87 versus 79. All of that means is we’re going to have much more stable cash flows as you think about our business whether rates are higher or whether rates are lower. On Page 10, I want to talk a minute about our Servicer Advance business. Currently, our Servicer Advance portfolio totaled $7.6 billion. The advances are funded with $7.1 billion of debt for 91% advance rate and a 2.3% cost of funds. Our like-to-date investment on the portfolio has been 30%. As you look to the right side of the page, you can see that we had a very active quarter in the business. Again we issued a $1.5 billion Servicer Advance securitization in the first one and 18 months, on that deal we increased our advance rates from 87% to 93%. We lowered our cost of funds from 3.1% to 2.8% and we extended the maturity of our borrowings for up to three years. We also paid-off as I mentioned earlier 2.5 billion of term notes the reason that we were able to do this as Ocwen’s master servicer rating triggered an HSART event of default, which made us again pay off the $2.5 billion of term notes. If you recall back to April when we acquired HLSS, we took out extra financing just to prepare in the event that there were any additional downgrades and we had an extra capacity of approximately $4 billion and we used $2.5 billion to pay for this debt. The effect again of paying off the $2.5 billion of term notes created $200 million of additional liquidity. On Page 11, I want to talk a little bit about this deal, our Call Rights and if you take a look what I want to do is walk you through for a second. This is a large deal, again we expect to be in the market with this deal next week and the way that this deal works is and I’ll start with bullet point two or I’ll start with bullet point one. We’re able to call a deal when the current balance is equal to 10% or lower of the original balance of the mortgage pool that was issued. In this case we purchased 15 million bonds of Non-Agency securities at $0.66 on $1 for a discount of approximately $10 million to par. We then announced that we’re going to call the deal, so we paid $565 million which is $0.100 on $1 versus the UPB of the mortgage loans which is 565 and then you have additional expenses. What are those additional expenses? You have advance balances or advances that you have to pay off. In this case it’s approximately $8 million. We have paring our payments to both Ocwen and Nationstar so each time we call a deal we do pay Ocwen and Nationstar a fee to call those deals. And then we have expenses which could be legal and rating agency expenses, and that's $580 million. When you look as the accretion of the bonds that we purchased at $0.66 will then get paid off at par, so that's 15 million of the difference between 0.66 and par. We then turnaround and we do a secularization in the marketplace, so we’ll take the pool of mortgage loans, we’ll work with the rating agencies and our underwriters and we’ll create a capital structure where we’ll issue AAA down to non-rated securities and the effect of that will generate proceeds of approximately $545 million. And then the delinquent loans that we acquire as a result of our Call Right will keep on our balance sheet and where we’ll see to modify the loans or liquidate the loans overtime. The total profit in this transaction is expected to be something between $10 million and $15 million, so I thought this would be a good way to walk you through and illustrate how the Call Rights work and how this deal hopefully will look in the marketplace as we go forward. Again there is no guarantees on the execution of this, but this is what we expect as we come to market over the course of the next week or so. On Page 12, one of the questions we get pretty frequently is how to think about our Non-Agency pipeline, so what we thought we would do is we put a couple of bullets and really what are the drivers to enable us to accelerate our deal pipeline. So looking to the bottom part again today we own Call Rights on approximately 200 plus billion dollars of outstanding Non-Agency mortgages. We believe overtime all of these deals will be called and the projected balance of the loans at the time of call will be something around $100 billion. To the right, you could see the factors which drive the call ability of these deals. Delinquencies, Servicer Advances, the loan-to-value on the underlying mortgage loans and the bonds that we could acquire at discounts in the marketplace, so we gave a couple of illustrations as far as what would help accelerate the pipeline. For example, if delinquencies declined by 10% we think that we should be able to call another additional 3 billion to 5 billion in deal. If Servicer Advances dropped by an additional 2% we think the effect of that will be to call an extra $1 billion to $2 billion in deal. If the loan-to-value on the underlying loans goes up by 1 point, we think we should be able to call 1 billion to 2 billion in deal. And then the more bonds we acquire at discount the more deals we should be able to call. Again all these numbers are approximate, but we wanted to get you ground and then try to give you a sense of as far as how we think about the callability of these pipelines but as you can see at the left side of the page, currently $31 billion or callable. We're doing $500 million deal next week, we expect to do another deal hopefully in the month of December depending upon market conditions and timing, but overall we continue to work as I pointed out earlier in our presentation we continue to work with our servicer, as well as helped by counsel to figure out a way to try to clean up the legacy mortgage market. Keep in mind, most of these loans that are in these pipelines were issued anywhere from 2003 to 2007, so a lot of these loans are up to 10 plus years seasoned. Now if you’ll flip to Page 13. This goes back to some comments I made earlier about our desire to become a fully licensed or to have licenses in all 50 states and effectively what this would do as it would give us the ability to own MSRs, continue to work with our servicing partners to the extent that we wanted to do diversify, we could do that as well. So overall we think hopefully by the end of Q1, we should be licensed in almost all 50 states and again there is no guarantees on that, we're currently licensed in 30 states. We still need to work with the agencies to get approvals with Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie which we hope to be able to do that over the course of the next kind of three to six months, but we think it's a good, we think it's prudent and it will give us a little bit more flexibility in our business. On Page 14, I mentioned earlier how we think about our business and why we try to be as agnostic as we can to movements in interest rates and just to take you through a few bullets here. On interest rates, Excess MSRs are one of the few fixed income assets that should increase in value as interest rates rise. The underlying mortgages are less likely to be refinanced as interest rates rise, that's extending the life of the servicing fee stream, should interest rates fall we have recapture provisions with Ocwen and Nationstar, which will help mitigate any increase in voluntary prepayments. On Servicer Advances we have agreements with our servicing partners to protect us in the event that interest rates increase on our Servicer Advances to the extent that rates drop our financing cost should decline, so again that would be a benefit and then on the Non-Agency securities almost all of our securities are floating rate, so should rates rise we’ll get higher coupons and theoretically that will minimize the impact of a rise in interest rates and then should interest rates drop, the value of our Call Right should increase. So as we look to Page 15 and think about 2015 and looking ahead. The year has been really a good one for us, despite where our current stock price is. We’ve reached record core earnings of $0.49 a share in 2015, rolling back to April we acquired HLSS for $1.4 billion, we increased our dividend in both 2Q ’15 and 3Q ’15, we’ve achieved significant growth across all three core segments, we’ve deployed over $2 billion for new investments in the year. And as we look forward a couple of things that we’re working on, I mentioned the MSR licensing, we’re currently working on our applications to become a member of the Home Loan Bank system. The effect of that will give us more liquidity, should lower our cost of financing in certain segments of our business and overall we think it's prudent again to always have the maximum amount of liquidity as possible. Pipelines still remain robust. As we look forward, the Excess MSR pipeline is pretty robust. I would tell you it's not as interesting quite frankly today on the new production stuff, we do think there is going to be more legacy stuff that will come out of the large money center banks and I am sure I’ll get a couple of questions on that. On Servicer Advances, we continue to deploy more capital there, we love that asset, it has generated returns of mid-teens and upwards of 20 and then on the Non-Agency business, we continue to deploy more capital on the Non-Agency business. And then behind that is our portfolio update which I am not going to go through at this point and with that I’ll turn it over to the operator for any questions.