Colin V. Reed
Analyst · Bank of America.
Pat and Mark jump in on this one. The way these budgets are constructed, it's not -- okay, how many -- typically in a 3, 400 room, in a mid-scale hotel, you work out how many room nights you've got, and then you plug it online for food and beverage, work out your labor cost and there's your budget, I simplified it but that's the basics of it. But the way the budgets work in a business like ours, and this is the way it was when we operated it and I think it's the way it is today with our friends from Marriott, is that we -- because of the magnitude of one group booking, we build the budget literally day by day, room night, room blocks by room blocks, and look at the historical performance of the groups that are staying. Now I'll give you just one statistic. I think we said in the first quarter last year, out of the tremendous room nights we booked 550,000, 83% of those room nights were existing customers of ours. I think in the fourth quarter, I think it was, again, about 80% were historical customers of our business. So we have great visibility on the spending patterns of those groups. And as Mark referenced a little earlier, and I think I referenced it in my script, we have got a positive shift into corporate this year. So the groups are more -- and the food and beverage minimums are more prone to spending quality levels of food and beverage. So that's how it's constructed. But obviously, a customer can go through a little bit of a change of heart and that may show up in July of this year for a 3-day period when company X comes in. But by and large, this is what gives us confidence on the total RevPAR side of it, which is a little bit different to what we've seen earlier last year and for most of the year before. But that's how we do it.