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Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)

Q3 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, May 3, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day. And welcome to the Royal Gold Fiscal 2018 Third Quarter Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions]. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions [Operator Instructions]. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Karli Anderson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Karli Anderson

Analyst

Thank you, Alison. Good morning. And welcome to our discussion of Royal Gold’s third quarter fiscal year 2018 results. This event is being webcast live and you will be able to access a replay of this call on our Web site. Participating on the call today are Tony Jensen, President and CEO; Bill Heissenbuttel, Vice President, Corporate Development; Stefan Wenger, CFO and Treasurer; Mark Isto, Vice President, Operations; and Bruce Kirchhoff, Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary. This discussion falls under the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. A discussion of the Company’s current risks and uncertainties is included in the Safe Harbor and cautionary statement in today’s press release and slide presentation, and is presented in greater detail in our filings with the SEC. Tony will give you an overview of the quarter followed by statement with the financial update, and then we’ll open the line of Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to Tony.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks, Karli and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining the call. I’ll begin on Slide 4. We reported another solid quarter operationally. Higher revenue during the quarter included our full quarter of production from Rainy River, our newest royalty property. We also benefited from the gold price that was up 9% from year ago. Quarterly operating cash flow topped $190 for the first time ever, reflecting continued strong performance from the portfolio, and $21 million tax refund collected from Chile. Even without the impact of the tax refund, Q3's cash flow from operations was a record for Royal Gold. Our reported earnings were impacted by an impairment in Pascua-Lama where Royal Gold has 5.45% goad royalty and 1% copper royalty on the Chilean deposits. In coming to this decision, we balanced our view of the long-term potential of an asset with 16.5 million ounces of resource subject to our interest in one of the world's most prolific mining regions with the recent announcements by Barrick to re-categorize reserved resources and to suspend work on the underground prefeasibility study. While the impairment is reflective of the project conditions today, we continue to believe that Pascua-Lama represents significant option value for our Royal Gold shareholders. Absent non-cash impacts, our adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share continued our trend of consistent and solid performance over last several quarters. We’re allocating our strong cash flow to dividends, debt reduction and new business. We paid out $16 million in dividends during the quarter. We reduced our debt for the fifth straight quarter by paying down another $75 million. This leaves us the outstanding balance under our revolver of just $75 million, which we expect to pay off completely before the end of the year. And we now have over $1 billion of total liquidity…

Stefan Wenger

Analyst

Thanks, Tony and turning to Slide 10. We ended the quarter with over $1 billion in total liquidity, an increase from $975 million last quarter. This includes approximately $100 million working capital plus $925 million of revolver capacity. For the remainder of fiscal 2018, we continue to expect to pay down debt aggressively. Absent any new transactions, we will fully repay the remaining $75 million outstanding under our revolver by the end of June. On Slide 10, there’s a snapshot of our debt reduction efforts over the last five quarters. We paid down $270 million on our revolver over this period, $75 million of that paid in Q3. At March 31st, our net debt to EBITDA was right at 1 times. Following the repayment of our revolving credit facility, our only remaining indebtedness will be $370 million of convertible bonds, which mature in June 2019. We currently plan to repay the principal amount of bonds in cash using cash flow and availability under our $1 billion revolving credit facility. As we have the ability to repay the outstanding principal balance of the bonds with proceeds from our revolver, we do not anticipate reclassifying the bonds as current on our balance sheet at June 30, 2018. On Slide 11, I’ve summarized our tax stream sales and DD&A outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2018. For the last quarter of 2018, we expect that our effective tax rate will be between 17% and 23% subject any revisions to our preliminary accounting for the U.S. tax reform. Third quarter ending inventory was comprised of 26,000 gold ounces and 659,000 silver ounces, which was an increase over the prior quarter due to deliveries received in late March. We expect our fourth fiscal quarter 2018 sales related to our streaming agreements to be in line with the third quarter as inventory is expected to be reduced according to our routine sales procedures, offsetting lower expected deliveries from Mount Milligan. DD&A for the third quarter was $455 per GEO and it was about 460 per GEO for the nine months ended March 31st. We now expect DD&A to be between $450 and $470 per GEO for our full fiscal year. We have paid more than $47 million in dividends during the first three quarters of fiscal 2018, reflecting our commitment to paying consistent and sustainable return to our shareholders. For the nine months ended March 31st, we’ve paid out nearly 20% of our operating cash flow in dividends. With that, I’ll turn the call back to Tony.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thanks, Stefan. Looking back over to third quarter, we can reflect on several accomplishments; we reported record operating cash flow, even net of the joint tax refund; Mount Milligan rebounded from an abnormal water shortage and returned to milling operations ahead of schedule; Peñasquito began wet commissioning in the carbon pre-flotation circuit and continues to post updates that are ahead of schedule for the Pyrite Leach circuit; we had our first full quarter of sales at Rainy River, and the production ramp up schedule is trending favorably; Golden Start reported a significant increase in reserves, as well as positive underground advancements; and six of our royalty properties reported double-digit reserve increases. Looking forward to fiscal 2019 which is just around the corner for us. We expect to see initial production from Peñasquito Pyrite Leach in LaRonde Zone 5 later this calendar year, quickly followed by Cortez Crossroads’ production. We will release the preliminary economic assessment at Peak Gold, and we will continue to seek opportunities to deploy our strong liquidity. Alison with that, we’ll -- that concludes our prepared remarks, and we’ll turn the lines open for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session [Operator Instructions]. And our first question will come from Carey MacRury of Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Carey MacRury

Analyst

Just a couple questions on Voisey’s. Do you have a potential timeline on how long the trial would take? And also, would you have a sense of what the cumulative payment could be retroactively when they stopped paying the royalty?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Look, we’re going to start just probably in mid-September and we think that’s going to be a couple of months for sure. It may actually drift into December, but the time will tell. And of course, the decision that’s rendered from the court will be up to the court at that point in time. We can’t give very much guidance as to when that likely will come out. But we wouldn’t expect any decision before the end of this calendar year. With regard to what is at stake here, there’s some historical claims that we have filed that relate to the very first pound of nickel that was produced there. And we think of those historical claims in the tens of millions of dollars. But what’s significantly at stake is the forward-looking royalty after Long Harbour was built. And that's, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we’re not getting any revenue at all at this point, and because of the way they’re calculated. And so when you look at the volume, I think we put the volume up on one of the slides. When you look at that volume and do your math, you can see that going forward over the rest of the mine life that could be well over $100 million in value going on a forward-looking basis. So certainly, something that we’re thinking very, very seriously, Carey.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Josh Wolfson from Desjardins Capital. Please go ahead.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

For the Peak Gold project, I am operating under the assumption that it's not your main interest to be an operator of this asset. Would you be able to talk a bit more I guess on what the potential options are available to I guess convert that equity interest into something else? And also I guess in the context of there being an existing royalty on the order of 4% to 7% on the property?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

There are several different things that we can do with Peak Gold, and when the timing is right. We don’t think the time is right to monetize it. At this particular point, we very much think that there’s additional exploration potential in the project that we’d like to spend some time with first. But the second point I’d like to make is that, we’re long in this project. We were long in the project right from day one. We like the asset and that's what we picked up the two different royalties, it’s essentially one royalty but it's applicable on two different parcels between 2% and 3%. So we already have an ongoing interest. With regard to the core of your question, let me just say that we’re not particularly interested in gold in -- in dollars, we’re more interested in gold. So to the extent that any party that ultimately came in as a partner on the project, or somebody that might take operating control, we’ll be much more interested in very strategic and creative options where we can exit into our core business rather than just simply taking dollars in our position.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

I guess when you -- maybe more broadly, when you look at this type of asset, which has very high grades and likely attractive margins for the operator. Is there a rough number in mind that you have that would represent the potential streaming percentage of production, or is that -- is it too early to evaluate that?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Josh, I think quite a bit too early to really put pencil to paper on that. I think just now, if you were to look at it from a valuation perspective of what resources are in the ground, that’s probably one of the better metrics at this particular point. But we’re going to give you a whole lot more guidance about what we think about the quality of the asset when our PEA comes out in September.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst

And maybe just one last question on the asset. Any perspective on timelines when you think it could be in production, or range of dates that would be reasonable?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

I think it would be too early for us to speculate on that at this time. But let me just turn the question to Mark Isto who happens to be sitting remotely in Toronto today. Mark, will there be any permitting timelines associated with the PEA, or will it just simply be production estimates from pre-construction and forward?

Mark Isto

Analyst

Yes, we’ll have a preliminary schedule for sure. I mean, it’s obviously hard to get to precise, but we know what type of studies need to be done for the permitting. And we’ll be able to have a general project scheduled for sure.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Josh that should give you some strong help in -- we’re completing this preliminary economic study on what’s there today. But by no means, do we expect that to be the end of the exploration potential on the project. So it could be an interim look at the project at that point.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the Lucas Pipes with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

I noticed the filing of an automatic mixed shelf. And I wondered if there’s particular motivation to file it at this time, and maybe looking for some things on the M&A, for example. I would appreciate your perspective on the [indiscernible], thank you.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

It’s just a matter of our previous shelf expiring. And so we want to be completely ready and available to do any business and be prepared for any opportunity that might come our way, so just replacing the old shelf, very, very consistent with the prior shelf that was filed.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst

But since we are on the topic of M&A, and it’s been a while since you’ve been more active on that front. What’s the appetite at this point in time and what opportunities are you seeing in the market at this point in the cycle? Thanks.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Do you want to take that question, Bill?

Bill Heissenbuttel

Analyst

Sure. We’re still seeing a number of opportunities. It’s very reminiscent of the pre-2015 time period. I think what we’re seeing is really more in the development space than balance sheet restructurings. And those just take more time to mature. Often times you need other sources of capital to come along. So we just have to patient there. And I think previously, we’ve talked about transactions in the $100 million to $500 million range. And I’ll just give you a sense, we’re probably seeing more towards the lower end of that range. But with the growth pipeline that Tony talked about, I just think we can remain patient and just let these opportunities mature.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Mike Jalonen, Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

I just had a question on Pascua-Lama. What’s the book value of Pascua-Lama now post the write down? Then I have a second question.

Stefan Wenger

Analyst

The book value post the write down is $178 million.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

And then part two, Tony, as you come up for the option value for that 170. Was it $172 million, Stefan…

Stefan Wenger

Analyst

$178 million…

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

What type of mining plan did Royal Gold model for Pascua-Lama to arrive at the optionality?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

We took and look at as much data as we can get our hands on, both publicly and through Barrick, were quite helpful. And we took our own view on whether an open pit plan might look more promising versus an underground plan. And we have to ultimately use our experience and determine what probability we thought was applicable to both plants. And of course, we used quite a significant discount rate. We used the 9% discount rate once we determined an impairment was applicable, which is quite a bit higher than what we normally do. And we did that because we think it’s reflective of the project conditions today.

Mike Jalonen

Analyst

So you're assuming that one day there might be a mine here still?

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Yes we are. Otherwise, we’d write the whole thing off. We’re still believer. But at some point, there’s going to be a production here.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Tony Jensen, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Tony Jensen

Analyst

Thank you very much for joining us today. We very much appreciate your interest and continued support of Royal Gold. And we look forward to updating you on the future progress on quarterly calls to come in the future. And Mike, and I particularly look forward to updating you on Pascua-Lama at some point. All the best and thank you for joining us.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.