David Turner
Analyst · Bank of America
Thank you, John. Let's start with balance sheet. Adjusted average total loans decreased less than 1%, while ending loans increased modestly. Adjusted average consumer loans increased 1%, led by increases in indirect to other, credit card and mortgage, partially offset by declines in home equity. Average business loans decreased 1% and were impacted by our continued focus on client selectivity and overall relationship profitability, as well as lower line utilization and elevated pay down activity during the quarter. We continue to focus on risk-adjusted returns and are not interested in pursuing nominal loan growth for short-term benefit. That said we expect full year 2020 average loan balances to remain relatively stable on a reported basis and to grow in the low single-digit on an adjusted basis. Similar to 2019, we expect 2020 loan growth to be led by business services lending specifically C&I loan with modest growth in owner-occupied commercial real estate and investor real estate. Within consumer lending, we expect growth in residential mortgage, indirect to other, card and direct lending. Turning to average deposits. Reflecting seasonal trends, average corporate segment deposits increased 4%. Average wealth segment deposits increased 1%, while average consumer segment deposits remained relatively stable. Of note, total non-interest bearing deposit grew 1.5% during the quarter. Deposit growth in the business segments was partially offset by 51% decline in other segment deposits due primarily to reductions within wholesale corporate treasury deposit categories, reflective of a lower need for wholesale borrowings. So let's look at how this impacted net interest income and margin. Net interest income declined 2% linked quarter and net interest margin declined 5 basis points to 3.39%. Net interest margin and net interest income are negatively impacted by lower market interest rates. However, this was partially offset by declining deposit costs and a more favorable funding mix. Lower loan balances reduced net interest income but benefited net interest margin. With respect to funding, we completed a cash tender offer during the quarter for approximately two thirds of our outstanding 3.2% parent company senior notes incurring $16 million in extinguishment costs. The estimated run rate benefit in 2020 is an increase to annual net interest income of approximately $15 million and a 1 to 2 basis point improvement in margin. As expected, total deposit cost declined 8 basis points compared to the prior quarter to 41 basis points and interest bearing deposit costs declined 13 basis points to 64 basis points. The associated deposit beta was 28% this quarter. Regions continue to deliver industry leading performance in this space, exhibiting the strength of our deposit franchise. Assuming a stable rate environment, we expect modest reductions in deposit costs moving forward. Now that the majority of our forward starting hedges have begun, our balance sheet is largely insulated from movement in short term rates, and additional hedging and securities repositioning have reduced roughly half of our sensitivity to longer term rates. $4.5 million of forward starting hedges were added during the quarter, aimed at locking in a portion of 2020 fixed rate originations. Looking ahead, during the first quarter, we expect the margins to expand in the low 340s as the benefits of our hedging strategy begin. Now let's take a look at fee revenue and expenses. Adjusted non-interest income increased 1% compared to the third quarter, led by growth in capital markets, wealth management and service charges. Capital markets experienced a record quarter, driven by growth across most categories; notably, M&A advisory, loan syndication and fees generated from the placement of permanent financing for real estate customers. Commercial swap income also benefited from favorable CVA adjustments during the quarter. Although mortgage income decreased compared to the prior quarter, results remain strong despite seasonally lower production, as well as less favorable hedging and valuation adjustments on mortgage servicing rights. For the full year, mortgage was a significant contributor to non-interest income growth, increasing 19%. Other non-interest income declined this quarter, driven primarily by product valuation adjustments to certain equity investments in the prior quarter that did not repeat at the same level. Let's move on to the non-interest expense. Adjusted non-interest expenses remained well controlled, increasing slightly compared to the prior quarter, driven primarily by higher salaries and benefits, marketing and professional fees. Salaries and benefits increased modestly, driven by higher production based incentives. The increase in marketing expense was driven primarily by additional campaigns targeting priority markets, while professional fees reflected the timing of legal and consulting costs. The Company's fourth quarter adjusted efficiency ratio was 58.1%, and the effective tax rate was 20.3%. As John mentioned, we continue to benefit from our continuous improvement process as we are only one-third complete with our current list of identified initiatives, several of which are exceeding our initial expectations. For example, at Investor Day, we committed to reducing our total square footage by 2.1 million square feet and our third-party spin by $60 million to $65 million by 2021. We also disclosed plans to consolidate 100 branches during that same period. Based on the progress we made in 2019, we are on track to exceed our targets related to square footage and third-party spend reductions, as well as branch consolidations. We're now targeting third-party spin reductions in the $80 million to $85 million range and we will continue to look for opportunities to pull forward or expand on initiatives where we can. For 2020, we recognize revenue growth will be challenging. However, we remain committed to achieving full year adjusted positive operating leverage. While our hedging strategy helps mitigate the risk from lower rates, full year growth and net interest income will be difficult. We have good momentum in growing non-interest revenue, which we expect to continue. So while total revenue growth may be modest, we will continue to lean into expenses and the opportunities identified through simplifying growth; all the while continuing to make prudent investments to drive revenue growth. We'll again spin approximately $625 million on technology in 2020. We expect to open approximately 20 new branches and we will continue to hire talented bankers across our businesses. With respect to the effective tax rate, we expect the full year 2020 range to be 20% to 22%. So let's shift to asset quality. Overall, credit results remained in line with our risk expectations during the quarter. We saw improvement in several categories while experiencing some normalization in others. Net charge-offs were 46 basis points for the quarter and 43 basis points for the year, in line with our expected range of 40 basis points to 50 basis points for 2019. Provision equal net charge-offs, resulting in allowance equal to 1.05% of total loans and 171% of total non-approval loans. Non-performing loans increased 10%, primarily attributable to a single credit within the waste management industry, which we expect will be resolved over the next several quarters. Delinquencies and troubled debt restructured loans remain stable quarter-over-quarter, while business services' criticized loans decreased 3%. For 2020, we expect full year net charge-offs between 45 basis points and 55 basis points. Let me comment briefly on CECL. We continue to finalize our day-one impact assumptions and expect the impact to be in the $500 million to $530 million range. So let's take a look at capital and liquidity. During the quarter the Company repurchased 7.8 million shares of common stock for $132 million and declared $149 million in common dividends. Our common equity Tier 1 ratio was estimated at 9.6%, in-line with our target level of 9.5%. The loan deposit ratio at the end of the fourth quarter was 85%. The next slide reflects 2019 performance against our targets. And we've also provided you with a summary of full year 2020 expectations. Wrapping things up, in light of the challenging and changing economic backdrop, we are pleased with our fourth quarter and full year financial results. We have a solid strategic plan, designed to deliver consistent and sustainable performance throughout any economic cycle. With that, we're happy to take your questions. But do ask that each caller ask only one question to allow for more callers. We'll open line for your questions.