Ray Dolan
Analyst · William Blair. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Patti, and welcome to everyone on today's call. On March 24, we issued a press release stating that our Q1 results would miss our prior outlook and that our full-year 2015 results would also be below prior guidance. As CEO of Sonus, I can tell you that this is absolutely not where we want to be and I am disappointed with our first quarter results as well as the revision to our full-year outlook. I and the entire management team understand the importance of doing what we say we will do. I would have preferred to have hosted a call sooner than today. However, before I spoke with you, I wanted to feel confident that we understood the underlying causes and the likely implications on our full-year outlook. We've worked tirelessly since the March 24 announcement to understand what happened and what we can do to avoid it happening again. In addition to a deep inspection along with our leadership team of our internal forecast and internal processes, I and other members of the team have personally spoken with or met with many of our largest customers. We do this routinely, but we stepped up our efforts to reaffirm or adjust our working assumptions. In these most recent conversations, we've discussed their plans and how we are aligned with them both technically and commercially. These customer conversations have given me confidence in Sonus, our technology, and our path forward. Turning to Slide 4, I'd like to highlight three key points right up front. First, based on the significant work we've done since March 24, we believe that our Q1 shortfall and our revised outlook for the year primarily reflects the late timings of orders, lower spend, and longer RFP decision cycles as our customers take time to determine their future network architectures. We do not believe it reflects material competitive losses. My customer conversations as well as our ongoing RFP activity confirm that Sonus' technology is aligned with the technology strategies of our customers. Second, despite the near term pressure on our results, we remain well-positioned, both technically and commercially as opportunities develop. To expand on this point, it's important to acknowledge that our industry is in the early stages of a major architectural shift to virtualization. Fundamental changes like this often take time to accelerate and when they do they are not linear. To ensure Sonus' best position despite this volatility, we are driving operating efficiency. And as we do this, we are also continuing to innovate in areas that we are confident will matter to our customers. We are staying close to our customers so that we understand their needs and are ready to act when they are. We were the first to virtualize all of our growth products so we are prepared when that shift occurs. We continue to believe that the shift to a software-centric cloud-based architecture is all but certain to happen and we position ourselves to help lead the industry forward when that happens. The third key takeaway is that we are controlling what we can in this macro environment, which is now clearly impacting other suppliers in our industry as well. Controlling what we can, means also controlling our cost structure. As announced today, we expect to reduce our cost structure by approximately $20 million on an annualized basis as compared to full-year 2014, with $15 million expected to be realized in 2015, the majority is being in place by the end of Q2. Let me be clear. These are targeted cuts not wholesale changes to our investment priorities. We intend to preserve the strategic progress we've made over the past several years. We remain fully committed to investing in the critical technologies, which represent some of the most vibrant growth opportunities in our industry and which are value creating opportunities for our customers and our shareholders. With that, I'd now like to get into the details of what happened in Q1 and our revised outlook for the year. Let's start with what drove the Q1 shortfall. When we provided our guidance for Q1 on the February earnings call, we cautioned that our quarter was backend loaded. Unfortunately, the vast majority of those late quarter deals didn't occur. To give you the details, approximately half of the $24 million shortfall were distributed to four of our largest customers delaying purchase decisions, with two of these cases both delaying and reducing their spend to a fraction of what we had forecast. The other half of the shortfall resulted from a large number of mid-size deals pushing out. Approximately $1 million or less than 5% of the shortfall can be attributed to competitive losses and this level would not be unusual against the quarterly run rate of this magnitude. Beyond the roughly $1 million in Q1, we believe that we have not had any significant competitive losses at our major customers. Let's turn now to understanding the full-year outlook. We revised our annul expectations downward by approximately 25% or approximately $80 million. Slide 5 summarizes the primary components of that change. Roughly half can be attributed to four large North American tier-1 service providers. Specifically, with respect to AT&T, which has been our largest customer historically, we are no longer expecting them to be flat year-over-year. We now expect that it will be down approximately $30 million from last year, which means we expect them to contribute roughly $25 million for the full-year of 2015. A handful of other large North American service provider represents the balance of the tier-1 difference. We are seeing purchase decisions either push out, reduce in size, or both. The reasons include delays in the major technology transition to SDN and NFP and the switch to software to model, delayed RFP decisions many of which are related to that transition and impact of industry consolidation in both the telco and cable industry. In some cases customers have experienced their own shortfall to an end market demand relative to their plans and projections. As a result, they are now likely to delay their plans for additional capacity until later this year or even next year. The other half of the $80 million is roughly evenly split between federal, enterprise, signaling, and professional services. Let's discuss each of these in turn. Our revised forecast anticipates that federal will not contribute meaningfully until at least the second half of 2015. We are well qualified and we are participating in interesting opportunities across numerous government agencies, including some software only proposal. Still we now believe it is prudent to take more cautious approach until we see more evidence that federal spending is picked up in our category. In enterprise, we continue to make solid progress with Fortune 100 global account. Our SBC 1K and 2K and our Sonus partner Assure channel remain important aspects of our enterprise go-to-market particularly in a link which is now called Skype for Business environment. Additionally our full SBC portfolio, along with our recently acquired SDN capability is gaining traction. We continue to make progress with service providers as a channel for these opportunities, including the business services division of AT&T, Verizon, and others where our RPC 5K and the SBC 7K are very competitive. Other service providers are engaging as well domestically as well as globally. These are the relationships which have historically helped to plan large blue-chip UC accounts. So we remain optimistic that this is an effective go-to-market approach that will continue to be approved over time as the chip company and UC markets continue to develop. Still the sales cycles remain long and until end user demand accelerates, we've revaluated and reduced our expectation for enterprise accordingly. Turning to signaling. We remain engaged in a number of signaling RFPs for which we feel we are well qualified to win as either a second source or to displace the incumbent provider. These are often highly competitive RFPs and require multiple rounds of testing given the future complexity in both signaling deployment. We are continuing to harden both the SS7 and the Diameter products that were part of the PT acquisition in an effort to capture these signaling opportunities. We will keep you informed that these play out later this year but for now we have also reduced our forecasted signaling contribution. And finally, we expect less professional services revenue, which is largely just a mathematical function of our lower product revenue outlook. For all these reasons we're revising our full-year outlook and we're adjusting our cost structure accordingly. We estimate up to 20% of our revised forecast is related to enterprise and federal with the balance in service provider. This is roughly consistent with our revenue spilt today. We're also estimating that roughly three quarters is related to growth-related revenue with the balance in legacy, which is roughly consistent with the way our product revenues have been trending in 2014. Before handing over to Mark, I want to speak to our strategy as summarized on Slide 6, as I remain just as confident in our strategy today as I have ever been. Despite the significant challenges calling the timing of the industry transition to a cloud-based architecture driven by the transition SDN, I believe this transition is inevitable. Every discussion I've had and continue to have with customers and partners confirm this to be the case. The fact is the application layer will control communications networks going forward. Communications enabling the SaaS layer with critical software component that can then interact with the network to configure it in real time is the primary focus. We have often called that "over the top" as an alternative service delivery model to today's service providers. Going forward, it becomes the primary model. It changes everything, its destructive, it leads to a radically lower cost structure, and it empowers businesses to establish their own service delivery model. In this short-term this transition is uneven. Longer-term we'll see that work flows drive communications networks and work flows are in the application there, the customer is the app. As the CEO of Sonus, I'm comfortable that our technology assets are an essential part of the bigger picture as our industry makes this transition. No one knows precisely how this will happen and when, but I do believe the following. Our policies, signaling, session, and SDN controller assets, taken together form a large part of the architecture that will drive our industry forward in the decades ahead. These are the key areas of our investments and they remain the areas that are resonating with our customers. To ensure that we continue to invest properly in the critical areas and remain financially and operationally strong during this transition, we've taken the steps to reduce our cost structure quickly. We will remain focused on this transition. All of our stakeholders including our customers and our partners deserve and will continue to get our best efforts and I'm proud that we and this team have a journey ahead. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Mark, to discuss our results and outlook in more detail as our cost structure reduction plan. Mark?