Antonio Picca Piccon
Analyst · George Galliers from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question
Thank you, Louis. And good morning or afternoon to everyone who is joining us today. Starting on Page 4, as expected, the second quarter of 2020 reflects the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused the production and delivery suspension. With seven weeks and available to manufacture and deliver, our shipments in the second quarter nearly halved versus prior year to 1,389 units. Group net revenues were €571 million, posting a 42% decrease compared to prior year. This reflects the just mentioned volume decrees and the anticipated impact of the pandemic on the Formula 1 championship on our other sports and brand related activities, as well as the reduced demand for engines from Maserati. Adjusted EBIT was €23 million, down more than 90% versus the second quarter of 2019, reflecting the actions taken to contain costs while maintaining level of investment to support our long-term growth. Adjusted EBITDA was €124 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.9%. Our net result for the quarter was also positive although it’s small, with an adjusted net profit at €9 million, resulting in adjusted diluted EPS of €0.04, versus €0.96 of prior year. On the other hand, industrial free cash flow for the quarter was negative €158 million in line with our expectations, essentially due to ongoing investments, inventory buildup and the actions taken to support our distribution network. Moving to Page 5, you can see the details of the second quarter 2020 shipments. During the quarter there was a contraction of volumes as a consequence of the full suspension of our production until May 4 and the only gradual restart to deliveries in conjunction with the sequential dealer network reopening according to local health protocols. Total shipments for the quarter decreased 48% with eight cylinders models down 49.4% and 12-cylinder also down 42.9%. The first few deliveries of the F8 Spider and the 812 GTS commenced in the quarter, while the 488 Pista family approaches the end of its life cycle. In terms of geographic performance, EMEA was down 40.9%; Americas declined by 52.6%; shipments to Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were reduced to a few tens mostly as a consequence of the deliberate anticipation of deliveries in 2019; while deliveries to rest of APAC decreased by 27.9%. As discussed by Louis, the SF90 Stradale will hit the market at the inception of the fourth quarter as a result of the delays experienced in its industrialization phase due to the shutdown. The Ferrari Roma will follow immediately thereafter. Finally, we are happy to confirm our two unveilings in the second half of 2020. Turning to Page 6. You can see here displayed the walk of our group net revenues for the second quarter of 2020, severely impacted by the pandemic. Revenues from cars and spare parts were down 42% at constant currency as a result of the lockdown period that led to lower deliveries, which consequently also generated a lower contribution from personalization’s, only partially offset by the deliveries of the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2. Despite this, the weight of personalizations grew to almost 22% of cars and spare parts revenues, thanks to the favorable mix of cars sold, namely the 488 Pista family and the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2. Engines’ revenues declined €33 million in the quarter, reflecting lower shipments to Maserati. Revenues from sponsorship, commercial and brand were down €48 million, impacted by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in fewer Formula 1 races related revenues accrued in the quarter as well as reduced in-store traffic and museum visitors. For the purpose of accruing revenues from Formula 1 in the quarter, our assumptions in respect of the calendar and our sponsorship were essentially unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Other revenues decreased €16 million, mostly affected by the cancellation of the Moto GP at the Mugello racetrack and reduced other sports-related activities. Currency, including translation and transaction impact as well as foreign currency hedges had a positive contribution of €8 million, mainly reflecting the strength of the U.S. dollar. Moving to Page 7, let me review the change in our adjusted EBIT. As anticipated, it fell to €23 million from €239 million in the second quarter of 2019. With volume, which drove an unfavorable variance of €152 million due to deliveries being halved versus prior year as a result of the production and delivery suspension. Mix price variance decreased €7 million, primarily as a consequence of the lower total dollar value of personalization programs, following the decrease in shipments, partially offset by the deliveries of the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2. Please note that the mix price variance in the EBIT bridge reflects the total decrease of the contribution from personalization’s mostly due to volume reduction. This explains why such variance does not reflect the otherwise visible increase in our average selling price, which is entirely due to the weight of the Ferrari Monzas. Industrial costs, research and development costs increased €15 million, mainly reflecting higher depreciation and amortization of fixed assets as the production lines for the new model started being operated, partially offset by the effects of technology incentives recognized in the quarter. SG&A decreased €9 million, mainly driven by fewer market initiatives in the quarter. Other was down €58 million due to the already mentioned COVID-19 impact on the Formula 1 racing calendar, lower traffic for brand-related activities, cancellation of the Moto GP at the Mugello racetrack as well as lower engine sales to Maserati. The total net positive impact of currency was €7 million year-over-year. This was a net result of more favorable market rates, partially mitigated by the hedges in place. As Louis already mentioned, it is worth noting that even in this challenging quarter, the EBITDA margin of our core business, excluding F1, brand-related activities and engines for Maserati, remains solidly above 30%. Turning to Page 8. Industrial free cash flow for the quarter was negative for €158 million, driven by a change in working capital provisions and other, essentially due to higher inventories and the supportive actions in favor of our dealers. Among which temporary extensions of their payment terms and early payout of commercial incentives. We continue to fuel our long-term product development, investing €133 million. As a reminder, to better interpret the comparison, prior year industrial free cash flow was supported by the collection of the Ferrari Monzas advances. Net industrial debt as of the end of June was €776 million compared to €401 million as of March end 2020, also reflecting the €209 million dividend payout. At the end of the second quarter 2020, total available liquidity, including undrawn committed credit line for €700 million, was €1.812 billion, which compares with approximately €1.250 billion as at last December 31, and slightly less than €1.400 billion one year before. Our solid liquidity position was further strengthened by the proceeds from the recent issuance of €650 million notes due in May 2025. And as a result of the decision to early refinance part of the upcoming debt maturities and keep on securing longer-term financing. Moving to Page 9. As anticipated by Louis, we narrowed our guidance to reflect the visibility we have now and some necessary refinements of the assumptions we outlined at the beginning of May. We are currently programming our manufacturing capacity for the second half of the year according to a trajectory that will ultimately bring us to catch up around 500 cars out of the approximately 2,000 units lost during the seven weeks of suspension. This corresponds to an intermediate scenario versus what we presented in May that implies a recovery of about 1,000 cars for the high range and close to none for the low range. To do so, we plan to add a number of working Saturdays in H2, while leaving and touched our plant maintenance program during the summer holiday and the activities to prepare our new layout for the paint shop. Since our order book remains very strong, and as of now, is actually further improved versus last year, we also that expect such a decision to contain our manufacturing cadence may provide us with a certain edge in case the pace of the net order intake is dampened again in fall due to the long tail of the pandemic. Our product mix is now softer and reflects a delay in the operational startup process of the SF90 Stradale, determined by the shutdown period. We kept unchanged our assumptions in respect to the format of the Formula 1 Championship, and the number of phrases at the low end of the target range as the calendar remains uncertain, with only 13 races confirmed so far. Projections for our brand activities continue to suffer, the substantial reduction of turnover from directly operated and franchise store, museums and licensing, only very partially offset by positive development of the online channel. Delivery of engines to Maserati reflect their current annual target. It remains true that we'll contain our SG&A spending in light of the postponement of our most impactful in-person event together with an effective shift towards digital marketing activities to anyway, maintain strong and vital relationships with our dealers and customers through the pandemic. Our R&D spending, both CapEx and OpEx, including for competing in the new Formula 1 environment remain unchanged versus what we said in our first quarter earnings call. With a view to protect all the investments that we deem necessary for the continuing success and future development of Ferrari. As a consequence, capital expenditures are confirmed to be around €750 million. We reaffirmed the consideration that this narrowed guidance does not take into account the risk that global spread of the pandemic leads to new lockdowns and production suspension periods. However, as we are facing unprecedented times, at Ferrari, we'll never stop caring about our people, dealers, suppliers, business partners and customers such a chance should occur. With that said our guidance for the year has been narrowed as shown on Page 10. Net revenues greater than €3.4 billion, to reflect a drop in deliveries of nearly 9% versus 2019, and conservative assumptions in respect of the calendar of the Formula 1 Championship. The pace of restart of our brand activities and demand from engines from Maserati. Adjusted EBITDA between €1.075 billion and €1.125 billion, with percentage margin between 31% and 32.5%. The reduction in margins reflect the softer mix due to the delay in the standardization phase of SF90 Stradale. Adjusted EBIT between €650 million and €700 million, with target an EBIT margin between 18.5% and 20%, which reflect the inevitably higher pace of our D&A, following the CapEx increase of most recent years. Adjusted diluted EPS between €2.6 and €2.8 per share, assuming a tax rate substantially in line with 2019 at around 20%. As a reminder, the assumption here is that we keep on enjoying the benefit of Patent Box tax break under the new Italian regime, albeit slightly reduced. Industrial free cash flow between €100 million and €150 million, with a heavier burden from some extended payment terms on trade receivables and CapEx of around €750 million, as mentioned. Please note that such figures reflect an assumption that foreign exchange rates stay on exchange rates stay on average where they've been predominantly during the last month. Current volatility is obviously an element to watch out for in the next months. Finally, on Page 11. It shows that while the first half was heavily affected by the spread of the COVID-19, particularly in Q2, with an adjusted EBITDA for the whole six-month period, almost 30% lower than last year, our narrowed guidance now implies a second half in line or better than in 2019, even if skewed on Q4, with a mid-range full year target just 13% lower. As we said in May, however, while the overall global environment remains dedicated, to say the least, flexibility and adaptability will be the name of the game to serve these exceptional times with a single objective driving our actions, which is nurturing our clients and protecting our business partners so as to come back as strong as ever before. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Nicoletta.