Good morning, and welcome to the Restaurant Brands International Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kendall Peck RBI's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Restaurant Brands International's Earnings Call for the Fourth Quarter and Year ended December 31, 2022. As a reminder, a live broadcast of this call may be accessed on the Investor Relations web page at rbi.com/investor and a recording will be available for replay. Joining me on the call today are Restaurant Brands International's Executive Chairman, Patrick Doyle; CEO, Jose Cil; COO, Josh Kobza; and CFO, Matt Dunnigan. Today's earnings call contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to various risks set forward in the press release issued this morning and in our SEC filings. In addition, this earnings call includes non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are included in the press release available on our website. During portions of the call today, we will be referencing franchisee profitability measures that are preliminary internal estimates based on unaudited self-reported franchisee results. We will also be referencing 3-year comparisons for system-wide sales growth and comparable sales, which are calculated on a geometric stats basis, by using the 2020, 2021 and 2022 disclosed growth metrics. In addition, the consolidated growth metrics discussed during the prepared remarks, including consolidated system-wide sales growth net restaurant growth and organic adjusted EBITDA growth exclude the results from Firehouse Subs, which we acquired on December 15, 2021, to reflect comparable year-over-year growth figures. And now I'll turn the call over to Patrick.

Good morning, everyone. Excited to be part of my first earnings call at RBI. It's been about 90 days since I joined the company, and I've been so impressed by the teams I've met and the franchisees who've welcomed me into their restaurants in Miami, Toronto, Jacksonville, Zurich and Madrid. I know you've all seen our press release this morning announcing Josh Kobza as our new CEO as of March 1. Both Josh and Jose are here with me on the call today, along with Matt, as we get into the details of the quarter. Jose, on behalf of the entire Board of Directors and literally thousands of employees and franchisees who you've worked with over more than 20 years, I want to thank you for your tireless hard work, enthusiasm for our brands and huge contributions. We're a stronger company today because of the many roles that you've led over the years, and I can't thank you enough. Jose has agreed to stay with us for the next year as an adviser, and he's committed to helping me and Josh in every way he can. I'd like to now hand the call over to Jose to say a few words.

Thanks, Patrick, and good morning, everyone. First off, I want to congratulate my friend and partner, Josh, on this exciting new opportunity. Josh has been a valuable adviser to me over a number of years. He has the talent, the experience and all the right instincts to continue to drive great results for our brand and our company. I'm very proud of the team we've built here at RBI. I'll put this team up against any other in the business, any day. Our team has been delivering great results, and this quarter is just another example that their hard work and that of our owners and franchisees is paying off. I want to thank our owners and franchisees in Canada, the U.S. and around the world for investing their capital, for investing their passion and commitment and for investing their trust in our amazing iconic brands. And I want to thank our Board of Directors for their continued support and valuable advice over the years. When they asked me to stay on as an adviser over the next year, it was an easy yes. I love this company, the people, our food and beverages, and the excitement of working together with our teams and franchise owners to create great experiences for our guests. I'm looking forward to working with Patrick and supporting Josh as we accelerate our business further. And with that, I'll turn it back to Patrick.

Thanks, Jose. Throughout my career, I've discovered the value of full transparency. And whenever there is a leadership transition in a company, people speculate what is driving that. And I believe it's just easier to tell you. So here's the answer. We have great leaders in place. We're making good progress, and we have the whole team, including Jose to thank for that. This is a business that's already moving in the right direction. This is about setting ourselves up for an accelerated pace of growth for the next 5 to 10 years. The Board of Directors has been disciplined about succession planning. We have an exceptional leader with all the relevant experience we need here in Josh, and he's ready to drive what we believe will be a new area of growth for the company. I know he's going to do a terrific job. I have an enviable opportunity at this point in my career to be an adviser to Josh, as he takes on his new role. My own mandate here at RBI is to rapidly accelerate the growth of the company by identifying areas that can deliver outsized results as we lean into them even more. Aside from my mandate, the growth opportunity we have in our brands is also why I invested $3 million of my own money on my way in the door and locked it up for 5 years. So I'm all in. We've built ambitious plans that we believe in. We have talented teams. The job now is to accelerate the speed and quality of execution, focusing on some big bets and deliver exceptional results. One of the themes you'll hear a lot from us going forward is the importance of franchisee success at the heart of everything we do. And more specifically,…

Good morning, everybody. Thank you very much, Patrick, for all your support so far. And I'd like to thank Jose, who's been a great leader and a friend to me for my entire time so far at RBI. It's still early days for me in thinking through priorities in my new role, and I plan to spend the next few months listening to our teams, our franchisees and you all and making sure that our plans for the future incorporates all of your perspectives on how we can be the most successful together in the coming years. That said, I do have some initial reflections. One is that we have an amazing business, fantastic people and a lot of tailwinds. I think this is really a question of how we can make our business move faster and operate even better. And one of the most straightforward ways to allow our teams to move faster is to give them more autonomy and ownership within our global company structure. I'm looking forward to sharing more of my thoughts on these and other topics in the coming months and quarters. I feel very fortunate to have the support of Jose, who's been in this role for the last 4 years. And I'm also very fortunate and thankful to have Patrick as a leader and a mentor to learn from and work with as we take our next step towards this phase of growth. Well, let's be efficient and get into the results that we're here to talk about this morning. We closed out the year with momentum, having made great progress across a number of important initiatives, including driving strong sales growth at Tim Hortons Canada, launching our Reclaim the Flame plan at Burger King U.S., increasing our net new restaurants year-over-year, improving…

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everyone. For the fourth quarter, excluding Firehouse in Russia, our global system-wide sales grew 11%, and our adjusted EBITDA grew approximately 6% organically. Our Fuel to Flame investment in Burger King U.S. was a $13 million headwind to our adjusted EBITDA, reducing our year-over-year growth rate by approximately 2%. Our growth rate was also reduced by another 4% related to a few additional drivers, including a $9 million decrease in cash distributions received from various joint ventures, a $7 million year-over-year increase in bad debt at Burger King, largely related to the recent BK U.S. franchisee insolvency Josh mentioned, and a $5 million increase in segment G&A, excluding Firehouse. As we've discussed, over the past few years, we've been making proactive investments across key areas of the business that we believe will help accelerate our plans to enhance the guest experience and drive long-term profitable growth for us and our franchisees. We feel confident we have the resources we need to drive our plans forward. And as we look to 2023, we currently expect to see a significant moderation in the year-over-year growth of our core segment G&A. During the quarter, as a result of depreciation in both the Canadian dollar and the euro versus the U.S. dollar, we saw our adjusted EBITDA FX headwind increase versus third quarter levels to $31 million year-over-year. As a reminder, on average, for every 100 basis point change in the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, we see a roughly $3 million quarterly EBITDA impact. And for every 100 basis point change in the euro, we see a roughly $1 million EBITDA impact per quarter. Before turning to EPS, I'd like to briefly discuss our sales minus cost of sales margin within our Tim Hortons segment. As Patrick mentioned,…

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question today comes from David Palmer from Evercore.

Congrats, Patrick and Josh. And thank you and all the best to you, Jose, after this transition year. Patrick, obviously, your priority, as you said, is going to be around maximizing long-term growth, what are some of the biggest opportunities you see to make this happen? And I would guess it's going to be under the big 2 buckets or at least the investment community would think about the big 2 areas as sort of the North America brand turnarounds. And do you see the plans, investments in people there in those big 2 brands as sort of underway? Or do you think there's changes that need to happen in investments or other? And then on the international front, do you see opportunities, obviously, unit growth over the long term is going to be a big deal? Do you see regions or brands where you have the greatest unit growth acceleration opportunity?

Sure. Thanks, David. So look, I think in terms of the first question around the teams and the investments that we're making, I think we're in a very good place. So we certainly may be shifting some things around as we find areas where we think we can invest that are going to generate a great return. But we've got great teams in place, and we are certainly investing into those businesses to get things moving. The reclaim the flame initiative, you can already see is starting to move us in the right direction. I think we are nicely on the path in terms of improving the profitability of the stores and the -- and that's ultimately what's going to lead to growth in that business. Tim's is doing great. We're returning back to levels and have now passed levels from pre-pandemic feeling very good about the momentum in that business, the leadership we've got in the business there. Matt talked about the supply chain margin in fourth quarter, which honestly was kind of more an issue of cost of coffee going up and our flattening out pricing for our franchisees to kind of help remove some volatility for them in their earnings, which is certainly going to help them feel great about their investment of time and resources into Tim's. So those 2 big home markets -- in the Tim's case, I think, is in very good shape, really moving strongly in the right direction. BK, we've still got work to do, clearly, but we are absolutely on the right path. I think we mentioned the fourth quarter profits for the franchisees up very meaningfully. So that really gets to the international side. And I was over with David and his team last week in Switzerland and then Spain,…

Our next question today comes from Brian Bittner from Oppenheimer & Company.

Congratulations to Josh and Jose, and welcome back, Patrick, good to hear from you. As it relates to improving franchise profitability, which is obviously a huge part of your mandate, the company's mandate, franchisee profitability, as obviously, is down a lot from when it was last disclosed in 2018. I believe at that time, Tim Hortons was at $320,000, it's now $220,000. Burger King was at, I think, $180,000, it's now at $140,000. So outside of improving sales and improving comps, what do you believe are the other more controllable opportunities, again, outside of sales leverage as it relates to executing against this mandate to improve franchisee profitability?

Yes. Good morning, Brain, thanks so much for the question. I think a few different thoughts on this one. And I think it's been a great initiative from Patrick to bring franchise profitability kind of even more to the forefront here, it's something we focus on for a long time, but now we'll be talking about with you all as well and a bunch internally. I think to the points you made, first of all, sales and traffic are the start of this equation. So we do need to focus there. And I think the good news on that front is that we have quite a bit of momentum in some of our core markets. We had a great quarter at Tim's, and we're starting to see some of the results in BK U.S. from our Reclaim the Flame plan. So I think we've got some good momentum on the sales side, and that will help us a lot. I think on the [stuff] (ph) below sales, we did see a tremendous amount of inflation, especially across the COGS lines over the last couple of years. And I think there's a little bit of better news coming on that front. We are seeing some moderation in COGS inflation, and I think that really helps. If we can put together the combination of driving some sales and traffics back into the restaurant, plus have some moderation in some of those cost lines, I think that's the formula that we'll be focused on going forward, and I think can drive some meaningful improvement in franchise profitability this year.

Our next question comes from Dennis Geiger from UBS.

Great. Patrick and Josh, congratulations. And Jose, best of luck on the transition. I appreciate all the detail and the commentary on the franchisee profitability and the strategic focus here. Just specific to the Burger King U.S. and perhaps Tim's Canada. The focus clearly on improving 4-wall profitability, but wondering if there's any thoughts to add with respect to what closures could look like relative to historical levels? Does that need to change at all, as we get the system in an even better place or is it really the focus on the profitability and then that number doesn't need to need to change at all?

Yes. Good morning, Dennis, thank you so much for the question. I'd say on -- particularly on BK U.S., that's been the most focus on this front. Like I said, we -- I think what's really encouraging that we're seeing some good momentum on the sales side. Reclaim the Flame looks like it's working, some of the new advertising and focus on the Whoppers is working and that's helped both sales and as I mentioned, profitability, which was up about 40% in the fourth quarter. So we're hoping to build on that momentum. That said, as I also mentioned, there are some franchisees who are going through some difficulties, whether it's operational or capital structures, and we saw one of those situations with an insolvency that happened here recently. And I think our goal, as we look through those situations, will be to make sure that we're thoughtful about all the different stakeholders and make sure we get to the right outcomes through those processes to make sure that all of those businesses are set up to be operationally and financially successful for the long run. Part of that may be closures, and we'll work through each of those individually and make sure we get to the right outcomes for the long run, and we'll keep you updated on any of those outcomes as we go in the coming quarters.

Our next question is from Chris Carril from RBC Capital Markets.

Patrick, great to hear from you again, and congrats to Josh, and I would also like to say thank you and best wishes Jose as well. So encouraging results out of BK U.S. and it seems like there are positive early results from an reception to Reclaim the Flame. So Patrick, you highlighted the opportunity to expand 4-wall EBITDA over the next couple of years. And Josh, we heard you highlight the acceleration of some of the investment spend in the plan. But given early results you're seeing and given your new roles, Patrick and Josh, it would be great to hear any additional thoughts on the plan here going forward and whether you see opportunity to kind of rethink investment levels just given the early momentum you're seeing?

So I'll start. Look, we are excited by the momentum in the business. I think we're getting a lot of things right. We've got real progress that we need to make to continue to drive that success in the BK system. Very different situation, and I'll loop back to the previous question a little bit, then with Tim's, which you've got a lot of franchisees in Canada, debt levels are low, the general health of the franchisee base is good overall. There are certainly exceptions. But the level of profitability in Canada overall is strong. We want to get it back to the highs where it was and even higher than that and making great progress on that. But in the U.S. system, BK, I think the highest level of profits in the history of the brand was something like $184,000 in EBITDA. The $175,000 million gets us close to that. But we've really got to get it higher than that. So we've got to generate ongoing growth in the top line and in the bottom line for that business. We've got to work through some situations, as you talked about, with some of the franchisees. But ultimately, if we've got the averages move in the right direction, the health of the system is continuing to get better. It certainly makes it easier to work through with some that have got capital structures that are not what you want them to be and kind of work through those situations. But from a level of investment, the Reclaim the Flame, I think what it did for us is give us an opportunity to prove that investing in this business is going to generate good returns for the franchisees and for the company in growing the overall health of the business and the guest experience, and you can see that it is working. And so if you've proven a good return on investment, then it's most directly linked with the marketing, which we already have an agreement from the franchisees once we've gotten to the $175,000 million in 2024, then they commit for an extra 50 basis points in the following 2 years. And that's -- we will have, at that point, proven that increased investment in marketing and is a good generator of return for them, and then they take over the investment there. So we feel good about where we are about the progress we're making, more to be done on the BK U.S. business, but early results are certainly very good.

If I can just add there, Chris. I think I feel really good about where we're going. There's definitely a lot of work left to do. I think we have a tremendous leadership team there under Tom. And I think their plan is a really good and a very thoughtful one. I think they have initiatives that they can kind of action in the near term, which is what we already started to do with some of the new advertising. And we're going to do with some of our refresh where we're getting a lot of investments into the restaurants quickly with equipment and some of our technology. And then over time, we transition to doing some more of the heavy lifting of some of the big asset upgrades. So I think the consumers of the plan are right. It's great to see the initial success. You may see us tweak little things around the edges, like we mentioned today on accelerating that early investment all into 2023. But I think by and large, I think it's a very thoughtful plan, and I'm really pleased to see some of the initial progress under Tom and the team.

Our next question comes from Brian Harbour from Morgan Stanley.

Yes. Congratulations, again, to all of you. I'll just ask about the BK U.S. side as well. We can see the sales performance kind of picking up there, and you noted better profitability in the fourth quarter. Is there anything else you can provide in terms of metrics on customer satisfaction, maybe in terms of market share? What else are we kind of seeing that's showing the traction in that business and helping to drive some of that profitability improvement?

Yes. Brian, thanks for the question. I think you hit on some of the main things that are giving us confidence. There are things like the sales and the profitability moving in the right direction. But we're also seeing a few other things. We're seeing in some of our brand metrics, we're seeing some improvement, I mentioned that in Q4. So I think that to me is a sign that some of the advertising and really focusing on some of those core equities like the Whopper and Have It Your Way, that's working and resonating with our customer bases. I think we are also seeing improvements in customer satisfaction -- our guest satisfaction metrics have been improving, and that's not new that it's actually -- it's been pretty consistent over the last 1.5 years-or-so. So I think that's certainly a positive sign. And it's no accident. It's an outcome of some pretty deliberate efforts we made to make investments back in the field team to make sure that we had a really clear system that the franchisees believed in how we would create performance and manage that performance. So I think that's really encouraging. And the other stats we keep an eye on. We're keeping an eye on both our kind of our sales performance versus the industry and increasingly our traffic performance versus the industry. So I think we've seen some encouraging progress there over the last year or two, and we'll keep a close eye on those things as well.

Yes. Just to maybe add 1 other quick one to everything Josh said there, Brian. I think the other one that's critical for us is the focus on operations. And so related to what Josh mentioned about the improvement in guest satisfaction, we see that pretty clearly linked to all the efforts Tom and the team have been making across the system to improve the guest experience, improve operations at the restaurant level. And we know that our top operators in BK and our other brands as well drive much stronger profitability as a result of those efforts and actually grew profitability year-over-year despite the macro headwinds.

I think guest satisfaction was up something like 20% from Q3 to Q4. So I mean we are moving in the right direction.

Our next question comes from Sara Senatore from Bank of America.

[Technical Difficulty]

Sara, we're not quite getting you.

Is this better?

There you go.

Sorry. Okay. Sorry about that. Just a quick question on the outlook for G&A and also on Tim's. So I think I just wanted to clarify on G&A that the expectation is that growth will be slower than it was in 2022. I don't know if you have any more color you can give? And then on Tim's in Canada, I think Matt mentioned that the margin was compressed. Just could you talk about how you think about pricing in Canada? Presumably, the franchisees are under similar pressures you talked about with inflation. I think in the U.S., we've seen pricing be relatively elevated across the industry. Is -- are you looking at it the same way in Canada or is the idea you take share by keeping pricing relatively low versus inflation?

Sara, thanks for the question. It's Matt here. Just on the first part of your question related to G&A. Yes, I think the message was, and as Patrick described earlier, we've invested a lot over the past couple of years. We've built some really amazing teams, world-class teams here across the company. And we think we have all the assets that we need to really drive forward the initiatives that are most important to the business and growing from here. So we do expect the rate of growth in our G&A to moderate significantly in 2023 versus the rate that you saw in 2021-'22. And then I'll pass it over to Josh for the second part of the question.

Yes, good morning, Sara, and thank you for the question. I'll touch on Tim's pricing. I would just say that I think and the rest of the team, they are very thoughtful and very mindful of pricing that we take. We know that it's core to kind of our purpose and our proposition to our customers to provide great taste and great value every day. And so we want to make sure that we're upholding that promise for all of our guests, and we're pretty thoughtful about that. But of course, we have seen cost pressures, and I'd say we keep an eye -- a careful eye on what's happening with inflation in the broader market, what's happening in grocery and restaurants, what's happening with our competitors, and we try to put all of those things together to get the right balance of pricing and value in our business over time.

Our next question comes from Gregory Francfort from Guggenheim.

My question is just around development. And I mean there's been a lot of talk about interest rates and capital availability potentially impacting franchisee appetite. Can you talk about this maybe from a U.S. perspective, but also from an international perspective where leverage might be lower? And then as you look out to the pipeline for store development this year, do you think you have a chance of accelerating overall store growth despite those headwinds?

Yes. Thanks, Greg. I appreciate the question. And I think my perspective on this. I think at the end of the day, development always comes back to ROI. We need to have a good -- a really strong set of unit economics across our concepts, and that's what will cause franchisees to want to invest. So that's what we're really focused on. And I think our -- some of the discussion of franchisee profitability today really highlights how much of that's going to be a focus for us. Of course, kind of through the cycle, you're going to see movements in interest rates and that will impact the cost of financing that people need to pay back. So that's certainly an influence in some of our discussions. But I would say, overall, we feel pretty good about where we're going. We've got a lot of amazing partners around the world, and we have very strong unit economics in a lot of those markets. And that's why I mentioned a little bit earlier in my prepared remarks that we're excited about the year ahead and feel like we're on a good path to try and improve the pace of growth around the world.

Our next question comes from Mark Petrie from CICB.

So I just wanted to follow up actually on -- specifically on the Tim's supply chain operations. And are there any other pieces of noise that you will be cycling through with regards to sort of higher-priced commodities in the upcoming quarters? And then my question on pricing was already asked, but perhaps when you look back on 2022, anything you can provide with regards to how you might have compared to the industry or to CPI?

Yes. Thanks, Mark, for the question. I'll jump in on the first part there related to supply chain. Yes, look, I think as we talked about, there's -- given all the volatility and elevated commodity prices, that has created -- certainly created volatility in our quarterly results in terms of the percentage margin, and we've talked about that a bit over the past few quarters. And also, as I mentioned, we did see a continued elevated commodity costs continue into this year. And we have, as we mentioned, higher cost inventory that we were working through in the fourth quarter and a bit into this year. So there is a bit of noise there. But overall, we think the most fundamental kind of goal for us is to continue to drive the strong and healthy sales growth across the Tim's Canada system. And as we do that over time, I think our business will be healthier, both on the franchising side and the supply chain side. And yes, so I think that's what we're focused on. And if we're thinking about volatility, again, I think it's helpful to look at the margin on a full year basis to sort of normalize for some of that quarter-to-quarter volatility that we called out.

Yes. And Mark, I'll take the one on pricing. As I said, like a couple of questions ago, we certainly keep an eye on both of those things. We do look at competitive pricing and we're keeping on CPI. And for 2022, we were in that ballpark, maybe not exactly on each one of those, but we weren't super far off, we were kind of in the same range as those 2 metrics.

Our final question today comes from Lauren Silberman from Crédit Suisse.

I wanted to just follow up on the accelerating growth. As we frame the priorities, is the near-term focus more about accelerating comps and franchisee profitability and then that will ultimately unlock accelerated growth over the medium to long term? Or can this be done in tandem? So you have franchisee profitability more in the home market and also accelerating international unit growth in tandem?

Yes, I'll handle that one. All of the unit growth we're getting today is a function of strong unit economics. And so it's kind of a -- it is certainly -- the answer is both, and it depends on the market. But where we're getting good growth in units, it's because we've got really strong unit economics and we've got the right franchisee partners who are well capitalized, et cetera. There are other areas where we can accelerate the growth, either by introducing new brands into new markets in international or by working on franchisee 4-wall EBITDA to improve it so that it is going to generate a good return for them. So it really comes down to a function of which market and where they are in the pace of development of that market, but both. So where we're getting it, it's because economics are good and where we're going to accelerate it, it's going to be by improving the economics and getting capital into those markets to build more units.

Yes, I totally agree, Patrick. I would just say, I think one of the greatest gifts that Jose has left me with is exactly what he said. I think we have incredibly talented teams across all of our business units around the world, and they're working on all of those things. We have amazing teams in our home markets. We're working on driving same-store sales and franchise profitability and the growth of those markets. And we also have an amazing team in international who is working on developing our footprint around the world. I think there's a lot of exciting stuff. And as I said at the beginning, a lot of tailwinds for us, and we'll be working hard on all those things throughout the coming year.

Great. Well, thank you all very much for your time this morning. We really appreciate it. Appreciate all the questions as well. We'll see everybody next week in New York at our upcoming Investor Day. Thank you for the time today, and have a great day.

That concludes today's Restaurant Brands International, Inc. Q4 2022 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect your line.