Mark B. Grier
Analyst · Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan
Hello. I'm back. Our system somehow went on mute by itself. I'll start over. I'll take you through the results for the quarter. And then I'll turn it over to Rob Falzon, who will cover our capital and liquidity picture. And I apologize for the interruption. I'll start with an overview of our financial results for the quarter shown on Slide 2. On a reported basis, common stock earnings per share amounted to $2.20 for the third quarter based on after tax adjusted operating income of the Financial Services businesses. This compares to EPS of $2.89 a year ago. After adjusting for market-driven and discrete items in both the current quarter and the year-ago quarter and the benefit of the current quarter results from a favorable catch-up in our effective tax rate, EPS was up 5%, amounting to $2.46 this quarter compared to $2.34 a year ago. Looking across our businesses, here are the main drivers of this comparison. We benefited from higher fees reflecting growth and account values in our Annuities business and the contribution of recent longevity reinsurance transactions and retirement. Our Asset Management business benefited from strong performance-based fees in the current quarter. Our Individual Life and Group Insurance businesses benefited from more favorable claims experience. And in our International Insurance business, higher expenses, including technology costs in the current quarter, coupled with less favorable foreign currency exchange rates, more than offset the benefit of continued business growth in the year-over-year comparison. On a GAAP basis, we reported net income of $465 million for the current quarter. This reflects a non-AOI charge to increase our embedded derivative liability for annuity living benefits, largely driven by our annual actuarial review and reflects the loss from foreign currency remeasurement driven by weakening of the Japanese yen. The foreign currency remeasurement that affects our net income is an accounting presentation mismatch, and it does not reflect the economics of our currency-matched assets and liabilities in Japan. We hold currency-matched assets to support the non-yen liabilities of our Japanese insurance companies, and the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations on the liabilities runs through the income statement, while the offsetting impact on the assets is included in accumulated other comprehensive income or AOCI. Book value per share, excluding AOCI, and after adjusting the numbers to remove the impact of this FX remeasurement mismatch, amounted to $64.89 at the end of the third quarter, up $4.90 from last year end, after payment of 3 quarterly dividends totaling $1.59 per share. Growth in book value plus dividends paid exceeded 10%. We also evaluate our ROE performance after adjusting for the FX remeasurement mismatch, which benefited our reported ROE by reducing the denominator. After removing this benefit, along with the impact on results from market-driven and discrete items, our annualized ROE for the first 9 months of the year would be about 16%. This reflects solid underlying performance across our businesses with tailwinds from strong non-coupon investment results and mortality more favorable on our average expectations in Individual Life and International Insurance. Slide 3 presents the AOI impact of our assumption updates. This years' annual review of actuarial assumptions had a net unfavorable impact of $186 million on pretax adjusted operating income or $0.26 per share. The most significant items are $107 million charge in Group Insurance to strengthen long-term disability reserves, including an update of our estimate for the benefit of Social Security claims offsets, and a $63 million charge in Individual Life to adjust the amortization and reserves giving effect to refinements in our approach to estimating gross profits and guaranteed benefit costs. Turning to Slide 4. The remainder of this quarter's list of market-driven and discrete items included in our results is short. In the Annuities business, performance of our separate account funds in the current quarter was less favorable than our expectations, and we strengthened our reserves for guaranteed minimum death and income benefits and adjusted DAC, resulting in a net charge of $0.07 per share. And in Individual Life, we absorbed integration cost of about $0.01 per share related to the Hartford Life acquisition. In total, the items I just mentioned, including the impact of the annual actuarial reserve, had a net unfavorable impact of $0.34 per share on third quarter results. In addition, a favorable catch-up in our effective tax rate contributed $0.08 per share to our results for the current quarter, mitigating a portion of the impact of the market-driven and discrete items. This catch-up reflects a downward change in our estimate of the full year effective rate applicable to our pretax adjusted operating income. During the year-ago quarter, market-driven and discrete items produced a net benefit of $0.55 per share, mainly driven by favorable DAC and reserve updates in the annuity business, reflecting the annual review of actuarial assumptions and strong performance of our separate account funds in the quarter. Moving to Slide 5. On a GAAP basis, our net income of $465 million in the current quarter includes amounts characterized as net realized investment losses of $1.1 billion, comprised of the items you see here. The $970 million loss from product-related embedded derivatives and hedging included a $631 million charge from the annual actuarial review for variable annuities, largely driven by updated lapse assumptions. While our experience on living benefit guarantees is still limited, enhanced analytics, combined with industry data, has enabled us to refine our approach in predicting customer behavior. The key refinements include making expected lapses on products with living benefit guarantees sensitive to the level of interest rates. These changes caused us to lower our expected level of lapses for most of our contracts in-force. The charge reflects GAAP guidelines for valuing embedded derivatives, including a risk-neutral framework for estimating growth and account values over decades. We believe that this accounting paradigm overstates the true liability, and the result would be different under conventional insurance accounting. The remainder of the $970 million loss from product-embedded derivatives and hedging reflected mark-to-market on our GAAP liability for variable annuity living benefits, including the impact of changes in interest rates during the quarter. Foreign currency remeasurement, driven by a weakening of the Japanese yen in relation to the U.S. dollar and other currencies in which we issue products in Japan, resulted in a pretax loss of $576 million for the current quarter. Impairments and credit losses on investments were $37 million for the quarter. Going the other way, mark-to-market on derivatives, mainly related to management of currency exposures and asset liability durations, resulted in a $328 million pretax gain, and general portfolio activities, mainly in our International Insurance operations, resulted in net pretax gains of $123 million. Moving to our business results and starting on Slide 6. This slide shows our U.S. Retirement Solutions and Investment Management businesses. This is a view of the results of these businesses showing the adjustments we made for actuarial reviews, market unlockings and experienced true-ups to get a view of underlying performance relative to a year ago. Slide 7 highlights Individual Annuities. After adjusting for market-driven and discrete items, annuities results were $403 million for the quarter, an increase of $33 million from a year ago. Turning to Slide 8. Most of our operating earnings in the annuities business come from base contract charges linked to daily account values. Measured point to point, account values at the end of the third quarter increased by 6% from a year ago, driven by market appreciation over the past year. However, the increase in average daily account values for the quarter outstripped the point-to-point increase, producing a 10% increase in policy charges and fees. The benefit of higher fees, net of associated expenses, was partly offset by a lower contribution from investment results, resulting in a 9% increase in earnings from the year-ago quarter. Slide 9 shows the trend in annuity sales. Our gross annuity sales for the quarter were $2.6 billion, up by roughly $200 million from a year ago. Net sales were $392 million. We've adapted our variable annuity product line to diversify the risk exposures associated with our product guarantees and to enhance our ability to maintain appropriate pricing and return expectations under changing market conditions. As you see on this slide, our Prudential-defined income, or PDI product, has become a significant contributor to our sales mix. Sales of PDI, shown in the light blue bars, amounted to $459 million or about 20% of overall sales for the current quarter, roughly consistent with the contribution over the past few quarters and about double the relative contribution of a year ago. PDI directs a client's entire investment to a separate account, fixed-income portfolio that we manage. And PDI provides a guaranteed lifetime income amount, which is determined by applying an income payout percentage, which is based on the client's age at time of purchase to the premium paid. The payout percentage grows at a contractual roll-up rate until lifetime withdrawals begin. The design of PDI allows us to change both the income payout rate and the roll-up rate for new business, enabling us to keep pricing in sync with changes in market conditions, including interest rates. Since PDI allows us to reprice more rapidly than other lifetime income guarantee products in the marketplace, its competitive position changes as we maintain appropriate target in returns, and our sales are an outcome of that process. Sales of our highest daily suite, or HDI products, shown in the dark blue bars, accounted for $1.8 billion of our current quarter sales, down slightly from the year-ago quarter. Similar to PDI, our current generation product, HDI 3.0, also allows us to change key pricing elements, including the roll-up rate for protected withdrawal value that determines the base for lifetime income and the withdrawal percentages for various age band as often as monthly for new business. The remainder of our current quarter sales, about $300 million, represents annuities without living benefit guarantees. This includes early sales of our recently introduced Prudential Premier Investment Variable Annuity product, which does not offer these guarantees and unbundles guaranteed minimum death benefits as an optional add-on. We see a market opportunity in serving clients who are focused on tax-deferred asset growth potential and are in the initial stages of introducing this product to our distribution partners. Slide 10 highlights the Retirement business. After stripping out the impact of refinements reflecting our annual actuarial reviews, earnings for the Retirement business amounted to $269 million for the current quarter, an increase of $28 million from a year ago. The increase was largely driven by a $21 million greater contribution from net investment results. Investment income for the current quarter includes about $35 million of returns that we would consider to be above-average expectation on non-coupon asset classes. The remainder of the increase in earnings came mainly from higher fees, including the contribution from the longevity reinsurance transactions that closed in July, partly offset by higher expenses. Turning to Slide 11. Total retirement gross deposits and sales for the current quarter were $36.2 billion, including $29 billion for the 2 significant longevity reinsurance transactions that we closed in July, covering about 212,000 retirees in total. Unlike funded pension risk transfer transactions like GM and Verizon, where we took on both asset risk and longevity risk, in these transactions we assumed only the risk of participant longevity and the cash flows take the form of monthly fees and net settlements, rather than a significant transfer of assets to us on day 1. Since we haven't taken on significant asset risk, the capital charges per dollar of notional amount are substantially lower than they would be in a funded transaction. We are now separately reporting the balances for longevity reinsurance, investment-only stable value wraps and group annuities, including funded pension risk transfer cases in our financial supplement. This provides additional transparency given their different economics in relation to notional amount. Excluding the longevity reinsurance transaction, stand-alone institutional gross sales were roughly $2 billion in the current quarter compared to $5 billion a year ago. Current quarter sales include $660 million from stable value wrap products, while the year-ago quarter included $4.1 billion of those sales. With about $70 billion of this fee-based business on the books, as of September 30, we face concentration limits with a number of counter-parties, and competition has increased in the market for these products with a greater number of wrap providers. Full Service gross deposits and sales, shown in the dark blue bars, were $5.2 billion for the quarter compared to $5.5 billion a year ago. The timing of attractive large case opportunities in the full service market leads to a variable sales pattern from one quarter to another. During the current quarter, we closed 3 cases of over $100 million each, totaling about $800 million, while the year-ago quarter included a major case win for $1.3 billion. Total Retirement account values amounted to $356 billion at the end of the third quarter, up by $44 billion from a year ago. Slide 12 highlights the Asset Management business. The Asset Management business reported adjusted operating income of $200 million for the current quarter compared to $173 million a year ago. While most of the segment's results come from Asset Management fees, the increase from the year-ago quarter included a $21 million greater contribution from what we call the other related revenues, which includes incentive, transaction, strategic investing and commercial mortgage activities. This was driven by strong performance-based incentive fees in the quarter. The contribution from other related revenues, which amounted to $36 million for the current quarter, is inherently variable since it reflects changing valuation and the timing of transactions. The benefits of results of continued growth in Asset Management fees was largely offset by higher expenses in the current quarter. The segment's assets under management amounted to $918 billion at the end of the third quarter, including $544 billion managed for institutional and retail clients. Third-party AUM increased by 11% from a year ago, driven by market appreciation along with about $12 billion of net flows over the past year. Net institutional outflows of $1.4 billion in the current quarter were driven by equities and included some client rebalancing of portfolios to reduce the weighting of some domestic equity product classes. These outflows were largely offset by net retail inflows of $1.2 billion. Slide 13 shows the results of our U.S. Individual Life and Group Insurance businesses, showing the adjustments for refinements and updates reflecting our actual reviews and showing the Hartford integration costs in Individual Life. Slide 14 highlights Individual Life. After adjusting for market-driven and discrete items, Individual Life earnings were $168 million for the current quarter compared to $145 million a year ago. The $23 million increase was driven by a greater contribution from mortality experience. Claims experience was favorable both in the current quarter and the year-ago quarter. The contribution to current quarter results from mortality experience, together with recurring reserve updates, was about $40 million more favorable than our average expectations. Slide 15 shows Individual Life sales based on annualized new business premiums, which amounted to $97 million for the current quarter. This compares to sales of $165 million a year ago. The $68 million decrease was mainly driven by a $61 million decline in sales of guaranteed universal life insurance products, shown in the dark blue bars. This decline is directionally consistent with the recent trend we've seen across companies and distributors. The latest available data for the first half of the year shows a 40% decline in industry sales of guaranteed universal life from a year earlier. Our sales decrease also reflects actions we've taken to limit concentration in these products and maintain appropriate returns, including a series of price increases and actions taken by some competitors to enter the market or make their products relatively more attractive. Term insurance sales, in the light blue bars, were down $5 million from a year ago, reflecting price reductions by several competitors. In August, we implemented pricing changes on several of our guaranteed universal life and term insurance products, enhancing our competitive position where we see opportunities to offer attractive value propositions with appropriate expected returns. Since the underwriting and issue process typically takes up to 90 days from the time of a policy application, these repricings did not have a significant impact on our current quarter sales. Slide 16 highlights the Group Insurance business. After adjusting for reserve refinements reflecting our actuarial reviews, Group Insurance earnings amounted to $34 million in the current quarter compared to $23 million a year ago. The $11 million increase was driven by more favorable claims experience in Disability, partly offset by less favorable claims experience in Group Life. Slide 17 presents benefit ratios for Group Life and Group Disability. In Group Disability favorable current quarter claims experience, including development of existing cases and fewer new cases, drove an improvement of about 11 percentage points in the benefits ratio compared to the year-ago quarter, after removing the impact of the reserve refinements, as shown in the dark blue bars. While we've taken steps to improve results, experience will vary from one quarter to another and improvements won't be linear. On a similar adjusted basis, the Group Life benefits ratio was less favorable than a year ago, reflecting higher average claims size in the current quarter. Moving on to International Insurance, on Slide 18. This slide shows the results of our International Insurance business, adjusting for the refinements reflecting our actuarial reviews and the Star and Edison integration costs and Gibraltar Life a year ago. Slide 19 highlights our Life Planner operations. After adjusting for market-driven and discrete items, our Life Planner business reported earnings of $397 million for the quarter, down $8 million from a year ago. Higher expenses in the current quarter, including technology and distribution costs, more than offset the benefits of continued business growth and more favorable claims experience. Mortality was favorable in both the current quarter and the year-ago quarter, and we estimate that the contribution to current quarter results was about $20 million more favorable than our average expectations. In addition, foreign currency exchange rates, which reflect our hedging of yen income at JPY 82 this year versus JPY 80 last year, had a negative impact of $4 million on earnings in comparison to a year ago. We have completed the hedging of our expected yen earnings for 2015, and our hedging rate for next year will be JPY 91 per U.S. dollar. Slide 20 highlights Gibraltar Life and other operations. After adjusting for the items I mentioned, Gibraltar Life reported earnings of $446 million for the current quarter, down $24 million from a year ago. Policy benefits experience, including mortality and gains on surrenders, was less favorable in the current quarter than a year ago. And current quarter results reflected a higher level of expenses than the year-ago quarter, largely driven by technology costs. In addition, foreign currency exchange rates had a negative impact of $10 million on the comparison of results to a year ago. Turning to Slide 21. International Insurance sales on a constant-dollar basis were $743 million for the current quarter, an increase of $35 million or 5% from a year ago. Slide 21 is a product view of our sales. Our sales pattern has been affected by actions we've taken, including changes in our product lineup. In addition, the seasonal sales trend favors the first quarter for our Japanese Life Planner business and favors the second quarter for Gibraltar Life. Our yen-based single-premium bank channel product, shown in the brown bars, which we discontinued late last year after cumulative sales of more than $1 billion, contributed $49 million to sales at Gibraltar Life in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the discontinued product, International Insurance sales increased by $84 million from a year ago. Sales of annuities, substantially all of which are fixed annuities denominated in Australian and U.S. dollars, contributed $51 million of the increase, as you can see in the gold bars. These products, which have been popular among Gibraltar's customers, are repriced every 2 weeks for new business to stay in sync with current interest rates and account value adjustments apply, in the event of surrender, to reflect interest rate changes after the sale. The remainder of the sales increase came from $25 million greater sales of U.S. dollar-denominated whole life and retirement income products and $8 million of growth in sales for other products such as term insurance. Slide 22 breaks out Life Planner sales. Life Planner sales were $298 million in the current quarter, up $40 million or 16% from a year ago. Sales by our Life Planners in Japan were $192 million in the current quarter, up $15 million from a year ago. As shown in the gold bars, sales of U.S. dollar-denominated whole life and retirement income products increased by $10 million to $47 million for the current quarter. The remainder of the increase came from other products, shown in the dark blue bars, including term insurance. Sales outside of Japan, in the light blue bars, were up by $25 million from a year ago, mainly driven by increases in Korea and Brazil. Slide 23 shows Gibraltar Life sales. Sales from Gibraltar Life were $445 million in the current quarter compared to $450 million a year ago. Sales by Life Consultants, in the dark blue bars, amounted to $196 million for the current quarter, essentially unchanged from a year ago. Productivity of our Life Consultants, measured by policy sold per agent per month, has essentially returned to the level we achieved prior to our acquisition of Star and Edison. This reflects the results of our implementation of minimum production requirements and other quality standards for the sales force that came to us with the acquisition. This increased productivity entirely offset a decline in the number of Life Consultants of about 700 or 7% over the past year. Sales through the bank channel, shown in the gold bars, amounted to $177 million for the current quarter, down by $23 million from a year ago. This decrease reflects the $49 million of sales of the discontinued single-premium product in the year-ago quarter that I mentioned earlier, partly offset by a $26 million increase in sales of other products, including fixed annuities and recurring premium whole life. Sales through independent agents, shown in the light blue bars, amounted to $72 million in the current quarter, up by $17 million from a year ago. The increase was driven mainly by greater sales of fixed annuities and Death Protection products. Slide 24 shows the results of Corporate and Other operations. After adjusting for a charge in the current quarter to strengthen our reserves for obligations to pre-demutualization policyholders, Corporate and Other operations reported a loss of $320 million for the current quarter compared to a $312 million loss a year ago. The increase in the loss reflects higher net expenses in the current quarter, including the impact of a lower pension credit. Now I'll turn it over to Rob Falzon.