Ashish Ghia
Analyst · CJS Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you, Todd. I will start with a review of our full year and fourth quarter results, and then discuss the balance sheet and 2020 outlook before handing the call, back to Todd for his closing remarks.Please note that all comparisons I discuss, are versus the comparative prior year periods unless otherwise stated. As a reminder, effective Jan 1st of 2019, we changed our segment presentation after the responsible completion of our teach outs. Thus, the all other campuses segment, which included these schools is no longer an operating segment. As a result, residual losses associated with these close campuses, have now been included within the corporate and other category. Prior periods have been recast to maintain compatibility.Now a quick overview of our results, for the full year 2019, total company operating income increased to $86.5 million, as compared to an operating income of $71.3 million. We believe adjusted operating income, which excludes certain significant and noncash items, is more reflective of the underlying operating performance. This measure came in at $134.3 million for the year, exceeding our latest outlook range of $130 million to $132 million, and reflecting an increase of approximately 27.7% versus the prior.Net income for the year was $70 million or $0.97 per diluted share, while adjusted earnings per diluted share, which again, we believe is more indicative of the underlying operating performance, was up 30.5% to $1.37.Overall, we ended the year on a good note, with the fourth quarter operating income of $32 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.38. Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $34.6 million versus $29.7 million, and adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.33, versus $0.30. These positive operating results reflect efficiency and effectiveness across our student enrollment and student serving processes, that supported a new enrollment growth and retention as current students continue to progress through their program of study.Our fourth quarter 2019 results, also reflect lower than expected expenses for employee related insurance programs and other non-students serving functions, as well as better than expected prospective student interest in the final academic term of the year, which contributed to the results exceeding our outlook.Before I go into the segment details, a quick comment on the adjusting items for the full year 2019. During the year, we recorded a $30 million settlement charge relating to the resolution of the FTC inquiry and a $7.1 million charge related to the settlement of the individual arbitration claims in Oregon. We're pleased to have resolved our significant outstanding legal matters. Another adjusting item is the $1.6 million of lease expenses for our vacated locations related to closed campuses.Excluding these items, the improvement in operating performance was primarily driven by revenue growth at both universities, as well as reduced losses associated with our closed campuses. Partially offsetting these positives were, additional costs associated with the compliance and monitoring efforts related to the FTC and the multi-state AG agreements, investments in marketing, as well as increased bad debt expense, that I will provide more color on shortly.Moving on to some more details around the 2019 financials, Total company revenue was $627.7 million for the year and increased 8% from $581.3 million, with fourth quarter revenue up 8.9% versus the prior year quarter. Both universities contributed to the revenue growth primarily driven by consistent levels of prospective students' interest, which are being well served by our admissions and advising teams, as well as improving student retention trends. Also positively impacting full-year revenue was 4.2% more revenue earning days at AIU.As it relates to our segments, revenue at CTU was up 4.4% to $392.3 million for the year, supported by positive enrollment trends, which also drove CTUs fourth quarter revenue up 8.3% to $102.6 million.Full year operating income of $108.6 million was $3 million or 2.7% below prior year, but includes an $18.6 million charge for the portion of the FTC settlement recorded within CTU.Excluding this charge operating income improved by approximately 14% or $15.6 million,primarily driven by revenue growth, while operating expenses were slightly higher, with increased marketing and bad debt expenses, offsetting efficiencies across various student serving processes.Turning to AIU. Revenue increased 14.9% to $235.4 million for the year, primarily driven by positive enrollment trends, as well as 4.2% more revenue earning days compared to the prior year. Full year operating income of $16.4 million was $8.2 million above prior year, but includes an $11.4 million charge for the portion of the FTC settlement recorded within AIU. Excluding this charge, operating income improved by approximately $19.6 million, primarily driven by revenue growth. Operating leverage was decent, with the revenue growth being partially offset with increased bad debt and marketing expenses.Let me briefly touch on some of the factors that relate to bad debt expense. Recall, that bad debt in any given quarter is impacted by quarterly variability, that can be associated with this expense. Quarterly variability positively impacted bad debt expense in the third quarter, but negatively impacted the fourth quarter, resulting in bad debt expense increasing sequentially over the third quarter.There are several factors impacting quarterly bad debt variability, including the AIU academic calendar, student account balances, timing of cash collections, and increasingly complex Department of Education financial aid requirements to name a few. Collectively, these factors can disproportionately impact bad debt in any given quarter. However, even though bad debt expense in the fourth quarter increased as compared to the prior quarter, the rate of increase as compared to the prior year periods, improved during the second-half of 2019, as compared to the first-half of 2019, as we continue to focus on further improving retention, and financial aid processes for our students.Our student support teams have increased their focus on financial aid documentation collection, and our counseling students through the Title IV process, so that they are better prepared to start school. We are also focused on emphasizing employer pay and other direct pay education programs, such as our corporate partnerships. Note, that these programs typically have lower bad debt associated with them.Now let me spend a few minutes discussing student enrollments. Total student enrollments at CTU grew by 4.4% for the year, primarily supported by new enrollment growth, as well as improving retention trends in the second-half of the year. New student enrollment growth increased 7% for the full year and 8.5% for the fourth quarter.As Todd outlined, we believe these positive enrollment trends reflect the investments across our student enrollment and support functions, which are allowing us to effectively serve the prospective student interest we're experiencing, as well as the continued progress within our corporate partnership program.Driven by these trends, and further supported by investments planned for 2020, we expect new enrollments for CTU to grow in the first quarter and for the full year 2020. Total student enrollments at AIU increased 10.2% for the year, supported by new enrollment growth, which was 26.6% for the full year and 12.7% for the fourth quarter.In addition to the initiatives discussed earlier, full year new student enrollments were positively impacted by 8.2% more enrollment days for the year, pursuant to AIU's academic calendar. But note, that the number of enrollment days in the fourth quarter was relatively comparable to the prior year quarter, and the fourth quarter new enrollment results, for the most part reflect organic growth.Recall, that the academic calendar at AIU, specifically, the number of enrollment days in any given period has a significant impact on the new student enrollments for that period. Excluding this variability, we believe AIU is experiencing organic enrollment growth, as evidenced by the second-half enrollments where the number of enrollment days was comparable, and has been supported by various operating initiatives and investment Todd discussed.Looking ahead to 2020, on a full year basis, AIU's academic calendar is relatively comparable to 2019, with a consistent number of revenue and enrollment days for each year, and we expect AIU to experience enrollment growth for the year 2020. However, there will be quarterly variability, especially as it relates to enrollment days, such that the first quarter of 2020, will have approximately 31% less enrolment days, while the second quarter will have approximately 50% more enrollment days, as compared to the respective quarterly periods in 2019.As a result, we expect AIU's new enrollments to decline in the first quarter, but this decline will be more than offset by growth in the second quarter. For the third and fourth quarters of 2020, we expect the enrollment days to be comparable for each quarter, as compared to the respective prior year quarter.A quick update on corporate and other, this category now includes residual operating losses associated with both campuses due to the completion of our teach outs. Excluding losses associated with closed campuses, operating losses for the year were $8.2 million higher, primarily due to the recognition of $3.5 million of stock compensation expenses during the fourth quarter, relating to performance based stock awards for which, the performance conditions were previously estimated to not likely be achieved, compliance and monitoring costs associated with the FTC and the multi-state AG agreements and certain operating recoveries that reduce prior your expenses. Also note, that for the fourth quarter, operating losses associated with the closed campuses were approximately $1 million.Now to income taxes, for the fourth quarter, we recorded provision for income tax of $6.1 million. This resulted in an effective tax rate of 18.1% for the period. The quarters' tax rate was positively impacted by approximately 10% to adjust the previously recorded year-to-date tax provision, which lowered the full year tax rate due to an additional $23 million of the $30 million FTC settlement, meeting the criteria for tax deductibility in the fourth quarter.With this change, $29.7 million of the $30 million FTC settlement recorded in the second quarter, satisfies the criteria for tax deductibility. For the full year, we recorded a tax provision of $22.4 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of 24.1%. Please note, that for the full year 2019, our tax rate was positively impacted by approximately 2.1% related to the settlement of a state audit, amended state income tax return filings and the tax effect of stock based compensation.For 2020, we expect our tax rate to be between 25.5% and 26.5%, which does not assume any material benefit from the tax effect of stock based compensation. Importantly, we ended 2019 with approximately $108.5 million of federal net operating loss carry forward, which are available to offset future taxable incomes. As a result, specifically, as it relates to 2020, we do not expect to pay any federal income taxes.Now, let me spend a few minutes reviewing our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $294.2 million of cash, cash equivalents and available for sale short-term investments. This represents an increase of $65 million over a yearend 2018, and was primarily driven by positive cash flows from our university operations, and reduced operating losses associated with our closed campuses.Net cash provided by operations was $73.1 million for the year, as compared to cash provided of $57 million for the prior year. The current year cash flow was primarily driven by the factors I just mentioned, partially offset with the cash outflows related to the legal settlement payments of $35 million for the FTC and the multi-state Attorney General matters.Capital expenditures were approximately $5.2 million for the year, as compared to $6.7 million in the prior year. For the full year 2020, we foresee capital expenditures to be approximately 2% of revenues.A quick note on the pending acquisition of Trident University, as Todd noted, we expect the acquisition to close in early March 2020, and are already diligently working towards a smooth integration for the incoming students and employees. We expect the transaction to be accretive to our 2020 earnings.Trident's operating performance continues to be strong, and as a result, we now expect to pay a cash purchase price at the high end of our previously provided range of $35 million to $44 million, along with the reimbursements of certain employee related expenses of approximately $1 million.Finally, let us discuss the organic growth outlook for the full year 2020. This outlook reflects among other things, the company's expectation of growth in new and total student enrollments at both universities for the full year 2020. Our outlook for the full year consists of the following.A $147 million to $152 million in total company adjusted operating income, as compared to $134.3 million in 2019. This is consistent with our overall objective of sustainable and responsible growth. This outlook contemplates investments to further improve student experiences, retention and academic outcomes. Please note, that this outlook excludes the impact of Trident acquisition.Adjusted diluted earnings per share is forecasted to range between $1.44 and $1.49 per share, versus $1.37 in 2019. As it relates to our first quarter outlook, our first quarter 2020 outlook reflects the company's expectation of growth in first quarter new student enrollments at CTU. However, for the first quarter of 2020, AIU will have approximately 31% less than enrollment days, while the second quarter will have approximately 50% more enrollment days as compared to the respective quarterly periods in 2019.As a result, we expect AIUs new enrollments to decline in the first quarter, but this decline will be more than offset by growth in the second quarter. For the second-half of 2020, we expect the enrollment days to be comparable for each quarter as compared to the respective prior year quarter.We expect adjusted operating income for the first quarter of 2020, to be in the range of $37.5 million to $39 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.38 to $0.40. Please refer to our earnings release filed today for important information about the key assumptions and factors underlying this outlook, and other expectations discussed on today's call, as well as the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations.Lastly, we will continue to maintain a balanced capital allocation strategy, that focuses on maintaining a strong balance sheet and adequate liquidity, while prudently investing in organic growth projects, such as students learning initiatives, and evaluating diverse strategies to enhance shareholder value, including share repurchases and acquisitions of quality educational institutions and progress. Ultimately, our goal is to deploy resources in a way that drives long-term shareholder value, while supporting and enhancing the academic value of our institutions.With that, I will turn the call back over to Todd for his closing remarks. Todd?