William W. Lovette
Analyst
Brett, so it all starts in our business with purchasing a pullet from the primary breeder company. And as we've talked now for well over a year, that industry had reduced its supply chain, thereby reducing the amount of breeders available to buy. And then at the same time, as we've seen the mix in the U.S. grow in large bird deboning, there have been some dynamics in the breeder supply chain, where those high-yielding breeds have become less productive from an egg production and hatchability standpoint. So you have those 2 dynamics going on at the same time. We do know that if you start at the pedigree level, it can take as much as 170 weeks to begin to grow that supply chain. We don't know, because we're not in that business, where that expansion, if at all, is, in that 170 week process. But all indications are that we don't see a material or significant amount of growth available from the breeder supply in the next 12 months. So that gets us at least into the back half of 2015. And it would be just a complete guess on my part, if I were to try to put any numbers around that. But I mean, I think, the low side is probably staying where we are in terms of supply or growing a small amount because, again, we don't see any growth that's going to happen in the first half of 2015. And if we do get growth, it's going to be in the back half, and I think, even at that, it will be relatively small. Yes. And as a follow-on to your point, I think what that really means is, with beef and pork where they are and where we think they'll be in the next 12 months, and with what I just said, I mean, I think, this really sets up a nice pricing environment for margin creation through 2015 especially given adequate corn and soy supplies.