Thomas Fitzgerald
Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your questions
Thanks, Craig, and good morning, everyone. Today, I’m going to address three topics. First, further details on how we are evolving our model as Craig referenced, second, our Q3 financial results and lastly, our 2023 outlook. We learned valuable lessons as the franchisor of a fitness brand during the pandemic, including the importance of building and maintaining a trusted franchisee, franchisor relationship. We were nimble and quickly made changes to support our franchisees and their most pressing needs while our stores were temporarily closed. This included 18-month extensions for both new store obligations under area development and on reequipped cycles for existing stores. These extensions provided franchisees with greater flexibility and liquidity to help meet their various obligations while stores were temporarily closed and until membership levels began to recover. The result was that we did not permanently close any of our stores due to COVID versus the industry, which experienced a 25% reduction of all gyms in the U.S. And in today’s post pandemic world with persistent higher inflation that have significantly increased new store construction costs, we are using that experience to further refine our model and position us and our franchisees for continued sustainable growth. As Craig noted, this isn’t just a win for our franchisees. It is also a win for us as the franchisor, and we believe it is also in the best long-term interest of our shareholders. As part of the plan, we are making changes to how we hold franchisees accountable to their new store build obligations, as well as updating our joint fee structure. Let me walk through each of the five parts of our new growth model in more depth. The first component of our plan is to extend the length of our franchise agreement from 10-years to 12-years and to eliminate the initial $20,000 franchise fee. Franchisees will be required to remodel at the 12-year mark and pay a franchise fee at that time. The franchise fee change is meaningful to our franchisees who are required to pay the fee when the store opens, but less impact to our P&L as we recognize it over the life of the agreement. The second element of our new growth model is to extend the timing for re equips to achieve a system average of six-years for cardio and eight-years for strength. Clubs that have higher than average usage will still be required to re equip at five and seven-years, while clubs with lower usage will be seven and nine-years. As a reminder, all stores that were opened at the end of 2021 received the previous reequip extension. So, today, on average, those stores are on a 6.5 and 8.5 year schedule already. Therefore, we expect this change to have minimal near-term impact to our financials. The second cardio reequip will coincide with the 12-year remodel requirement reducing the number of disruptions to the club and its members from seven to six in the first 24-years of operation. It eliminates two consecutive years that members have to deal with disruptions in today’s model. For the third component of the new growth model, we are targeting a 5% to 10% reduction to the investment required to build a new store without compromising the member experience. In addition to value engineering the store build, the targeted reduction includes the waived initial franchise fee and the changes to the mix of equipment, which we have been refining this past year as our members are consistently seeking more strength and less cardio. The latter has the added benefit of reducing CapEx investment and strength equipment costs less than cardio, and we are also adding additional open spaces for stretching and working out. We expect that this will continue to be a headwind to equipment segment revenue. However, we will continue to examine potential adjustments to our equipment pricing and margin as appropriate to protect our margin dollars per placement and reequip. The fourth part of our new growth model affects our area development agreements, where we will transition from grace periods to the more typical cure period mechanism, which will lead to greater clarity and alignment on our development pipeline. Grace periods allow the franchisee an additional 12-months to open location if there was a delay outside of their control. Franchisees will now enter a six-month cure period if they are in default on a unit obligation, which is a more common practice in the franchise world. Now, the fifth and final element of our new growth model is to shift from the franchisees paying us a fixed fee for online joins to a fee equal to a percent of member’s dues for all joins regardless of the join channel. This new structure allows us to participate in the upside on potential future price increases. There are many specifics and nuances that we are still working through as we transition to this new structure. As Craig noted, this is the model that we propose to our franchisees, and we are highly encouraged by their enthusiastic response to it. We expect most will accept it. Now, I will cover our third quarter results. All of my comments regarding our quarter performance will be comparing Q3 2023 to Q3 of last year, unless otherwise noted. We opened 26 new stores compared to 29. We delivered same-store sales growth of 8.4% in the Q3, franchisee same-store sales grew 8.2% and corporate same store sales increased 10.1%. More than three quarters of our Q3 comp increase was driven by net number growth, with the balance being rate growth. Black Card penetration was 62.1%, a decrease of 80 basis points. The decrease primarily reflects the continued increase in our Gen Z membership growth and the conversion of high school, summer, and pass participants to paying members. For the third quarter, total revenue was 277.6 million compared to 244.4 million. The increase was driven by revenue growth across all three of the segments. The 21.6% increase in franchise segment revenue was primarily due to increases in royalties, web joint fees, and national ad fund revenue. The royalty increase was primarily driven by same-store sales growth, royalties on annual fees and new stores. For the third quarter, the average royalty rate was 6.6%, up from 6.5%. The 12% increase in revenue in the corporate owned store segment was primarily driven by same-store sales growth and new store openings, as well as the four stores that we acquired in the second quarter. Equipment segment revenue increased 6%. We completed 22 new store replacements this quarter compared to 27 last year. For the quarter, replacement equipment accounted for 78% of total equipment revenue. Our cost of revenue, which primarily relates to the cost of equipment sales to franchisee owned stores, amounted to 53.8 million compared to 48.5 million. Store operations expense, which relates to our corporate owned stores segment increased to 63.1 million from 57.9 million. SG&A for the quarter was 33.3 million compared to 27.1 million. Adjusted SG&A was 30.7 million. This includes a $2.6 million adjustment for CEO transition related expenses. National advertising fund expense was 17.6 million compared to 17.0 million. Net income was 41.3 million, adjusted net income was 51.8 million and adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.59. A reconciliation of adjusted net income to GAAP net income can be found in the earnings release. Adjusted EBITDA was 111.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 40.3% compared to 93.9 million with adjusted EBITDA margin of 38.4%. A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income can be found in the earnings release. And by segment, franchise adjusted EBITDA was 67.6 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 68.9%. Corporate store adjusted EBITDA was 44.4 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 39.2%. Equipment adjusted EBITDA was 16.4 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.8%. Now turning to the balance sheet. As of September 30, 2023, we had total cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of 474.1 million compared to 472.5 million of cash and cash equivalents on December 31, 2022, which included 46.4 million and 62.7 million of restricted cash respectively in each period. Year-to-date through September, we used 125 million to repurchase shares. Total long-term debt, excluding deferred financing cost, was 2.0 billion as of September 30, 2023, consisting of our four tranches of fixed rate securitized debt that carries a blended interest rate of approximately 4.0%. As a reminder, we don’t have debt coming due until September of 2025. Finally, moving on to our updated 2023 outlook, which we included in our press release this morning. Historically, our new store openings typically SKU to the fourth quarter, and in particular to December, as franchisees work hard to open their new stores before New Year’s Eve. However, similar to the past few years, we continue to experience unpredictable delays in the various steps to open a new store. Chief among them is the extended permitting time line in many municipalities. With less than two-months remaining in the year, we have narrowed in on a range for new store openings and franchisee equipment placements that we believe accounts for the things that we and our franchisees can control. We now expect between 150 and 160 new stores and between 130 and 140 equipment placements in new franchise stores. We continue to expect system wide same-store sales growth to be in the high single-digit percentage range given our strong membership trends. We now expect that reequipped sales will make up approximately mid 60% of total equipment segment revenue for the year. Our franchisees continued to invest in their existing stores as evidenced by the fact that we expect our full-year reequipped revenue to be greater than what we had originally forecasted. Given our strong sales during our reequipped promotions year-to-date, we expect light Q4 reequipped sales as franchisees are allocating capital up to building new stores. This is the primary driver behind our revised expectation of approximately 14% revenue growth and approximately 18% adjusted EBITDA growth. We now expect approximately 33% growth in adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share growth of approximately 35% based on shares outstanding of approximately 89 million. We continue to expect net interest expense to be in the low $70 million, CapEx up approximately 40%, and D&A up in the high-teens percent range. As we mentioned last quarter, we will revisit our three-year outlook, which we initially provided back in November 2022, next year when we provide our targets for 2024. In the meantime, our teams are working with franchisees on their development, remodel, and reoccur claims for 2024 as they determine their near and long-term capital requirements and priorities under this new structure. We believe our new growth model will further enhance franchisee returns, continue to increase our leading competitive position, and deliver long-term sustainable value that benefits our shareholders and our entire system. I will now turn the call back to the operator to open it up for Q&A.