Tom Fitzgerald
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Brian, your line is now open
Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Overall, we feel good about where our business and our system is, particularly given what has happened over the last three years. We believe that we are operating from a position of solid financial and balance sheet strength as we continue to break down fitness barriers for first timers and casual gym goers. Our asset-light, highly franchised business model drove consistent and reliable growth last year, and we met or exceeded our financial targets. Notably, in 2022, we accomplished four things that I want to call out. First, we completed the acquisition of one of our largest and best-performing franchisees. Second, we closed a very successful refinancing and upsizing of our debt in an oversubscribed deal that resulted in a lower overall weighted average interest rate for our total fixed rate debt. Third, we repurchased 1.5 million shares at an average price of approximately $62 per share for a total spend of approximately $94 million. And fourth, our Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization that replaces the existing one from 2019. Now, I will cover our Q4 financial results and then we'll address our operational and financial outlook for 2023. All of my comments regarding our fourth quarter performance will be comparing fourth quarter of 2022 to Q4 of 2021. We opened 58 new stores during the quarter, bringing our full year total new store openings to 158, as Chris noted earlier. We had positive same-store sales growth of 9% in the fourth quarter, franchisee same-store sales grew 8.8% and our corporate same-store sales increased 11%. As a reminder, same-store sales for the Sunshine Fitness franchise stores that we acquired in Q1 of 2022 will not be reflected in our corporate-owned same-store sales until we report first quarter results, but they will continue to be reflected in system-wide same-store sales consistent with how we've treated prior acquisitions. Approximately 75% of our Q4 comp increase was driven by net member growth with the balance being rate growth. Black Card penetration was 62.5%, down slightly from 62.6%. As a reminder, the Black Card price increase that we took in May was for new joins only, so that should slowly begin to drive up average monthly dues over time. For the fourth quarter, total revenue was $281.3 million compared to $183.6 million. The increase was driven by revenue growth across all three segments. The 10% increase in franchise segment revenue was primarily due to an increase in royalties from same-store sales growth and new stores as well as higher equipment placement and National Ad Fund revenue. Partially offsetting the increase was a decrease of approximately $2.6 million as a result of the stores acquired in the Sunshine Fitness transaction moving from the franchise segment to the corporate-owned segment. For the fourth quarter, the average royalty rate was 6.5%, which was a six basis point increase to the prior year period. The 123.9% increase in revenue in the corporate-owned store segment was primarily driven by the Sunshine Fitness transaction as well as same-store sales growth and new store openings. Equipment segment revenue increased 56.7%, driven by higher equipment sales to existing and new franchisee-owned stores. For the quarter, replacement equipment accounted for approximately 60% of total equipment revenue. We completed 66 new store placements in Q4 and 153 new store placements for the year. Now our new store placements in franchise locations is one less than we pre-reported in early January. Since that time, one store that received the equipment in late December will not open as a new store due to an unresolved landlord dispute. We regret this unforeseen circumstance that resulted in a slight variance to what we previously reported. Our cost of revenue, which primarily relates to the cost of equipment sales to franchisee-owned stores, amounted to $73.8 million compared to $47.4 million. Store operations expense, which relate to our corporate-owned store segment, increased to $57.6 million from $28.6 million, primarily due to the additional stores from the Sunshine acquisition. SG&A for the quarter was $28.7 million compared to $27.3 million. Payroll costs primarily drove this increase with the addition of the Sunshine Fitness team as well as increased travel expenses. National Advertising Fund expense was $50.7 million compared to $17.6 million. We're rolling over the production costs associated with our Super Bowl Ad last year, which drove the decrease. Net income was $36.3 million, adjusted net income was $47.3 million and adjusted net income per diluted share was $0.53. A reconciliation of adjusted net income to GAAP net income can be found in the earnings release. Adjusted EBITDA was $106.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 37.7% compared to $62.2 million with adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.9%. A reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to GAAP net income can also be found in the earnings release. As a reminder, as of the third quarter, we are no longer excluding preopening costs from our adjusted EBITDA. In the reconciliation, you'll find the prior year period restated reflecting this change. By segment, franchise adjusted EBITDA was $57.5 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 66.7%. Corporate store adjusted EBITDA was $38.9 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 38.8%. Equipment adjusted EBITDA was $24.4 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 25.9%. Now, turning to the balance sheet. As of December 31, 2022, we had total cash and cash equivalents of $472.5 million compared to $603.9 million on December 31, 2021, which included $62.7 million and $58 million of restricted cash, respectively, in each period. Total long-term debt, excluding deferred financing costs, was $2.0 billion as of December 31, 2022, consisting of our four tranches of fixed rate securitized debt that carries a blended interest rate of approximately 4.0%. Now to our 2023 outlook. Our view for this year assumes there is no material resurgence of COVID that causes member disruptions, whether via shutdowns or more stringent mandates that result in a significant change in membership behaviors or any new significant supply chain disruptions. First, on store growth. As I said at our Investor Day in November, we expect to average 200 new stores per year over the next three years. However, our 2023 new store openings will be below that, as we still face some headwinds, both of which have been factored into our 2023 outlook. First, HVAC availability and other supply chain issues continue to be a challenge for both corporate and franchise locations. Second, we've recently agreed to terms with one of our larger franchisees to defer the majority of their development obligations in the near term and lift their exclusivity from certain markets. This will allow this franchisee to focus their cash flow on re-equips and remodels of their existing fleet and service their debt. While this group stores are profitable, they had an aggressive capital structure in place that became tenuous when the pandemic hits. This will be a drag on placements in 2023, but we are hopeful it will be offset somewhat by other developers in the system stepping up to build new clubs in those markets. Therefore, we expect new equipment placements of approximately 160. We expect that reequipped sales will make up between mid to high 50% of total equipment segment revenue. As a reminder, these placements are only in franchise-owned locations. Our net new stores for the year will include corporate-owned stores. We also expect system-wide same-store sales growth to be in the high single-digit percentage range. Now all of the following targets reflect growth over fiscal 2022 results. We expect our full year revenue to grow in the 13% to 14% range. We expect our full year adjusted EBITDA will grow in the 17% to 18% range. We expect our adjusted net income to increase in the 30% to 33% range, and we expect adjusted earnings per share to grow in the 33% to 36% range. We also expect shares outstanding to be approximately 89.5 million, which is inclusive of the repurchase of 1 million shares over the course of the year. We repurchased approximately 300,000 shares in January. As we discussed at our Investor Day, we may also opportunistically buy more shares, keeping in mind that we want to ensure that the pandemic impact is fully behind us. And we expect our net interest expense to be approximately $75 million. Lastly, we expect CapEx to be up in the mid-30% range, driven by additional stores in our corporate-owned portfolio, and D&A to be up in the mid-teens percent range, driven by the increase in CapEx and a full year of Sunshine in our results. As Chris noted earlier, during our most recent franchise business reviews in 2022, there was a lot of enthusiasm across our system to build new stores. With each quarter of positive membership growth, franchisees are more encouraged by the recovery of their store portfolios. Additionally, last year's increase in the Black Card membership to $24.99 and the recent increase in annual fees to $49 will add approximately 300 basis points to 400 basis points of margin to new stores as the vast majority of members in a new store will pay these higher rates. With our disruptive brand and disciplined asset-light franchise model, we believe that we are capitalizing on the greater importance that people are putting on their overall health and wellness to drive store and membership growth, which we believe translates into among the best franchisee margins and ROI. We believe this flywheel create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. And with that, I'll now turn it over to the operator for Q&A.