Paul Taubman
Analyst · JMP Securities. Please proceed
Yes, well, again there's a lot in that question and when we think about the macro environment there are many different drivers. So what we’ve said consistently and one thing about us we are consistent. What we have said is that there is a secular shift to greater levels of baseline M&A, and we see that persisting for many years to come and a lot of that is just driven by the ever present and increasingly disruptive role that technology plays in our ecosystem. And as a result, holding periods for assets are shorter, Boards of Directors, Managements need to continuously monitor whether or not they have the right toolkit, the right arsenal to compete in the marketplace, companies will be more likely to either make investments or to withdraw and deploy capital elsewhere. So, all-in-all, we see cycle times shortening, activity levels increasing. That’s sort of point one. Point two is, this has always been and will always be a lumpy and cyclical business and as long as there's a business cycle and as long as this world doesn't grow in a straight line you're going to see fits and spurts about the overall macro economic backdrop. Within that what we’ve said is that tax reform is a game changer. It's a game changer more in the long-term and actually there will be a sugar high in the short-term and then long-term there will be a meaningful increase. The sugar high in the short-term is there are very, very large sums of capital which are trapped outside the U.S., some of that will come back and be reinvested in significant acquisitions. Having that clarity is probably enabling companies to think with greater clarity of vision, and I expect that when you look at pharmaceutical companies, technology companies that have very, very large war chest, that inevitably some of that will be redeployed and that’s probably the short-term push. Longer term, if you subscribe to our belief that this world is speeding up, when you reduce friction costs and you enable companies to prune portfolios and instead of having to pay a very high corporate tax rate, have the corporate tax rate be in the low 20s. when you have the ability to break companies apart and be able to handle that friction costs in the context of a larger transaction, it just seems to us quite clear that over the long-term you will see greater velocity of assets when you have lower friction costs. So that makes us quite bullish about the long-term, recognizing that it's never going to be in a straight line. And with respect to recent market volatility, I suspect it will have a short-term negative effect on M&A activity, but in the intermediate term it's going to be quite healthy. And the fact is that these corrections are very healthy for the system, they’re quite disruptive and concerning in the very, very near-term. But once you get this behind you, our sense is you probably have a better risk reward trade-off on valuations. Probably sellers who have just seen every day that they wait, asset values increase, there's nothing to get them more motivated than seeing the price they could have sold that come back 5%, 10%, 15% and they’re sitting there saying if only I would get a second chance. So I think for a lot of reasons corrections are -- I like to joke there a little bit like annual physicals which is they’re good for your health, you always want to put them off, they’re never fun having, but you’re glad you had them done. And I think that’s a little bit how we think of the -- this current correction that we're going through. It's not particularly comfortable, but net-net over time probably healthy in getting valuations back into line between buyers and sellers.