Paul Taubman
Analyst · JMP Securities. Please proceed.
I think what I’ve said before is there is a macro trend and a micro. The macro trend, we see that we are in a secular increase or secular upswing in M&A activity and as the world becomes more global, more connected, more disrupted, companies need to aggressively manage their portfolios and either more aggressively prune their portfolios and refocus or they need to more aggressively commit to some of their businesses to four to five of them and prevent them from being disrupted, and that can only mean more M&A activity as the holding periods of assets shrink. And if we were to get corporate tax reform, I think one of the many benefits would be a significant reduction in the friction cost, because paying taxes on sales of businesses is a friction cost which prevents companies from appropriately optimizing their portfolio and if the rate were to come down appreciably, I think you would see another meaningful spike up in activity. On the micro, some of this is being held back by a lack of clarity out of Washington as to tax reform and as to anti-trust point of view, and I think as you get more data points one way or the other, and everyone knows the rules of the game with greater clarity, that will also create an uptick in activity. But I think what we’ve consistently said is that regulatory and policy uncertainty, whether it’s in the U.S. or elsewhere around the globe, doesn’t affect all actors equally. It tends to affect on the margin you know some percentage of potential corporate clients and corporate transactions, but for a large part of the universe they are moving forward with their business day in and day out and for a world where it looks as if you know global growth is on the uptick, consumer confidence appears to be on the uptick, you know rates continue to be quite low by historic levels, equity value, access to capital, so many of the addition of a healthy M&A market are present today. I think what your seeing is a lot of companies are just getting on with transactions that make sense to them individually, not withstanding a lack of macro clarity on some important policy matters, and I suspect that when we get that clarity, that’s an opportunity for another leg up in activity levels, because at some point just knowing what the answer is, is better than this uncertainty.