Stacy Loretz-Congdon
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets
Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin with a brief discussion of EPS and guidance before moving into the numbers for the quarter. Diluted earnings per share were $0.59 compared to $0.53 last year. Excluding LIFO expense, this translates to $0.76 for the third quarter compared to $0.59 last year. We are happy to see some return of commodity inflation with the long awaited candy inventory holding gain, representing approximately $0.14 per share of this quarter's earnings. We maximize these types of increases whenever possible. In addition, product inflation, which has been minimal in the last several years, helped offset inflation in our operating cost. We revised EPS guidance to reflect our current estimates for LIFO expense and a reduction in our expected tax rate. We have adjusted our LIFO estimate to approximately $18 million, up from $15 million, due primarily to an expected increase in the confection Producer Price Index. In addition, we reduced our expected tax rate to 37.5% for the year from 39% previously. The decrease resulted mostly from tax true-ups in the third quarter related to prior year returns that were finalized in September. The net effect is a $0.05 reduction to prior EPS guidance, driven primarily by higher LIFO expense. We now expect earnings between $1.68 and $1.76 per diluted share for the year. Excluding LIFO expense, this translates to a range of $2.17 to $2.25 per diluted share or an increase from prior guidance of approximately $0.05 a share. LIFO expense will be monitored for further adjustments, depending ultimately on the published U.S. Producer Price Index, which we use for book purposes. Our current LIFO projections reflect our best estimates, with cigarette and candy categories representing almost 60% of this year's expense. We have factored in modest inflation for cigarettes in anticipation of the Q4 price increase that we are counting on to meet our guidance projections. However, the final LIFO number will ultimately depend on how much the cigarette manufacturers take prices up as well as the U.S. government's interpretation of the candy and cigarette inflation in their PPI index. We continue to expect between $35 million and $40 million of free cash flow for the year, which includes $50 million per capital spending. This translates to a range of $1.50 to $1.70 per share before funding our dividend and share repurchase program. With that, I'd like to move on to our third quarter results. Sales increased 4.8% in Q3 from $2.6 billion last year to over $2.7 billion this year. Sales, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, increased 5.5%. The weakness in the Canadian dollar reduced Canada's contribution to sales by about $17 million for the quarter and $63 million if you're looking at year-to-date results. Cigarette sales increased 4.2% in Q3 to $1.86 billion and cartons sold increased almost 1%. Price per carton increased 3.4%, driven primarily by manufacturer price increases since last year. And our same-store carton sales decreased 1.3%, which was less than the industry, which reported volume declines of 2.7%. Our non-cigarette sales increased 6.2% in Q3 to $889 million compared to $837 million in the same period last year. Of the $52 million increase in non-cigarette sales, over 50% was driven by an increase in food sales. While we continue to see some weakness in traditional categories, like gum and groceries, we saw particular strength in our snack category led by meat snacks and healthy options, including nuts and seeds as well as health bars. In addition, our Fresh and fast food categories increased during the quarter, driven by Hostess sales, increased traction of Foodservice offerings as well as consumer demand for foods perceived as better for you. Gross profit increased $10.6 million to $151.4 million, an increase of 7.5% for the third quarter of 2014. Candy holding gains of $5.2 million were offset by an increase in LIFO expense of $4.3 million. And we benefited from 2 other tobacco product tax refunds, totaling $2.3 million. Associated costs of $300,000 related to the tax refunds are included in our operating expenses. This tax settlements are unusual and infrequent. However, we do pursue them whenever the opportunity arises, and we focus on maximizing the refunds as much as possible. You may have also noticed our subsequent events footnote related to another tax settlement that will be booked in Q4. Remaining gross profit, which excludes LIFO expense, OTP tax refunds and inventory holding gains, increased $7.4 million or 5.2%. Total remaining gross profit margins continue to improve driven by the food/non-food category, offset slightly by the compressing effect of cigarette price inflation of approximately 6 basis points. Cigarette remaining gross profit dollars overall and on a per carton basis were essentially flat. We did see improvement in cash discounts resulting from the price increases and improvement in certain manufacturer incentive programs. However, much of this was offset by foreign exchange and customer mix. Non-cigarette remaining gross profit increased $7.6 million or 7.6% for the quarter. Remaining gross profit margins increased 16 basis points to 12.16% compared to 12% during the same period last year. Our growth in sales of other tobacco products, which have lower margins than many of the other food/non-food categories, compressed these margins by 6 basis points. Moving on to operating expenses. We saw an 8.2% or $9.9 million increase to $131.2 million in the third quarter of this year compared to $121.3 million for the same period last year. This includes a $2.3 million increase in employee bonuses resulting from better performance and a $1.2 million increase in health care costs driven by the severity of certain claims and an increase in the number of employees covered. Operating expenses as a percent of sales increased 15 basis points to 4.78%. The increase in bonus and health care costs contributed 12 basis points, while the shift in sales to the non-cigarette products, which have a lower price point than cigarettes, contributed 9 basis points. Warehouse and delivery expenses increased $4.1 million or approximately 5.2% to $83.5 million during the third quarter. We shipped 4.3% more cubic feet of food/non-food products during Q3, drove 2.6% more miles and the number of deliveries we made increased 5.3%, driving labor and other related costs up. We continue to expand our CNG fleet, and these tractors drove 12% of all miles during the quarter and 7.5% year-to-date. This contributed to our net fuel savings, which helped to offset increase labor costs, in addition to diesel prices decreasing almost 2% compared to prior year. And Tom already touched on our driver program. As a percentage of sales, warehouse and delivery increased only 1 basis point, despite the 6 basis point increase resulting from the shift in sales to food/non-food categories. SG&A increased $5.7 million or 13.8%. As a percentage of sales, SG&A increased 13 basis points. The additional bonus in health care costs previously discussed contributed 10 basis points and the shift in sales to the food/non-food categories contributed 3 basis points. Moving further down the income statement. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 31.5% compared to 34.9% last year. Our third quarter is always impacted by adjustments to prior year estimates resulting from the filing of our tax returns. In addition, we did adjust certain tax accruals due to the expiration of the statutes of limitation on certain tax provisions. Moving to cash flows. Cash generated from operations was almost $70 million for the first 9 months in 2014 compared to $59.2 million last year. Remember, cash flows measure 2 single points in time, so period end inventory levels can have a significant impact on operating cash. Year-to-date, our average borrowings under our credit facility were $7.4 million and average unrestricted cash balances were $34 million. Some of you have asked, and it's probably worth repeating, that our net cash position varies widely day-to-day due primarily to the terms we receive on tobacco taxes. For example, this year, we have seen our net cash positions swing up to $100 million during any given month. You only see our balance sheet for 4 days out of the year, but because our tobacco tax liability is significant, we build cash reserves that allow us to satisfy these liabilities that become due the following month and then we start all over again. Free cash flow, which we measure as adjusted EBITDA, plus or minus changes in working capital, less CapEx, cash taxes and cash interest, was approximately $57 million year-to-date. This amount will come down as CapEx approaches $50 million during the fourth quarter and as we begin our LIFO inventory buy-in at year-end. Through September, we've spent $24 million on CapEx and had an additional $8 million committed. We continue to expect free cash flow between $35 million and $40 million this year, depending, of course, on any unusual year-end activities which I generally call out during our year-end call. Our capital allocation decisions continue to support our core strategies and focus on ensuring we have sufficient capital to fund CapEx, acquisition and expansion activities, dividends, opportunistic inventory buys and share repurchases. These remain our capital allocation priorities. We paid $2.6 million in dividends during the third quarter and announced an 18% increase in our fourth quarter dividend, as Tom already addressed. To summarize, the third quarter was very good. We're focused on reaching our 2014 guidance, with sales expected to approach $10.4 billion and EBITDA coming in between $118 million and $122 million. This should create a good foundation as we enter 2015. We believe the success of our core strategies is driving our same-store sales growth and helping us gain market share. And we continue to generate meaningful free cash flow, allowing us to execute our capital allocation strategies. I am honored to be part of such a solid organization with such stable fundamentals. And with that, I would like to thank all of our employees, our vendors, our customers and you, our shareholders, for your continued support. Operator, you can now open the line for questions.