Dan Creeg
Analyst · Morningstar
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. I'll review our quarterly operating earnings as well as the outlook for full-year results by subsidiary company. As Ralph noted, PSEG reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.80 per share versus $0.70 per share in the third quarter of last year. For the nine months ended September 30th, we reported operating earnings of $2.41 per share versus $2.27 per share last year. We provided you a waterfall chart on Slide 10 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on Slide 12 that provides you with the changes in operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. I'll now review each Company in more detail starting with PSE&G. As shown on Slide 14, the reported operating earnings for the third quarter of $0.44 per share compared with $0.39 per share a year ago. PSE&G's earnings in the third quarter reflect the benefit of warmer than normal weather and an increase in revenue associated with PSE&G's expanded capital program. The improvement in revenue more than offset a moderate increase in operating expenses. Returns from PSE&G's expanded investment in transmission added $0.03 per share to earnings in the quarter. Weather conditions, which were much warmer than normal and warmer than a year ago, provided PSE&G's earnings $0.02, improved PSE&G's earnings by $0.02 per share. Earnings comparisons also improved by $0.01 per share due to an increase in electric demand coupled with revenue recovery and infrastructure related investment programs. And consistent with the first half of the year, PSE&G experienced an increase in pension expense resulting in a reduction in the quarter-over-quarter earnings of $0.01 per share. Electric sales grew 7% during the third quarter as residential customers responded to temperatures which produced 38% higher temperature humidity index than levels experienced in the year-ago period and 19% higher than normal. And on a weather-normalized basis, electric sales advanced 8/10 of a percent in the quarter and 4/10 of a percent for the nine months ended September. Growth for the nine-month period is in line with our long-term expectations for weather normalized electric sales growth. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G reached settlement in principal with the staff of the BPU and the New Jersey Division of Rate Council on the Company's gas system modernization program, or GSMP. The settlement provides for an investment of $905 million over a three year period beginning in 2016 and under the settlement we would invest $650 million in the program at a 975 return on equity with the remaining $255 million investment recovered as part of our next base rate case. And you may recall that we agreed as part of our Energy Strong program to file a base rate case no later than November 1, 2017. PSE&G with the addition of programs of proven pending has increased its investment program for the five year period ending in 2019 to $11.8 billion, and this represents a 10% increase in PSE&G's capital investment plans since the start of the year and should support estimated annual double digit growth in PSE&G's rate base over this time frame. PSE&G has also filed an update of its formula rate for transmission at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The update supports PSE&G's ability to earn its authorized return on an expanded capital base and would increase transmission revenues in 2016 by $146 million. Remember, PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to grow to about 50% of its rate base by the end of 2019 versus approximately 40% at the end of 2014. We've increased our forecast of PSE&G's operating earnings for 2015 given strong year-to-date results and are now forecasting operating earnings of $785 million to $805 million versus $760 million to $775 million previously. Now turning to Power. Power reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.33 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $401 million, and that's compared with operating earnings of $0.34 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $386 million for the third quarter of 2014. Power's results for the quarter reflect the impact of strong hedging and increase in operation from the gas fired combined cycle fleet, and an improvement in spark spreads which offset the effect of an expected decline in capacity prices. Higher average prices on energy hedges coupled with reduction in the cost of supply more than offset the impact on earnings of lower wholesale market prices for energy, and these items combine to increase Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.07 per share. This improvement in margin in the quarter was partially offset by an expected decline in PJM's capacity revenues which reduce Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. The reduction in capacity revenues reflects the retirement of 1800 megawatts of older inefficient peaking capacity that was no longer compliant with environmental requirements. The average price received on PJM's capacity in the third quarter was in line with the year ago levels at $186 per megawatt day. Increase in O&M expense reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. This increase in operating expenses primarily reflects differences in timing of outages at PSEGs Power's nuclear facilities and is not an indicator of a higher embedded level of expenses. Lastly, the absence of prior year tax benefits reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.02 per share. As Ralph mentioned, in August PJM completed the RPM capacity auction for the 2018, 2019 year. More than 98% of Power's capacity that cleared the auction met the new capacity performance or CP standards. The price Power will receive for capacity is expected to grow to $215 per megawatt day on average for the capacity year beginning June 1, 2018, from the $168 per megawatt day for the current year. On Slide 28, we have detail on the results of the latest capacity auction, including the number of megawatts that cleared the auction as well as the average price Power expects to receive for its capacity. Power cleared a new efficient combined cycle unit at Sewaren and plans to retire a similar amount of older inefficient steam units at that site. With the results of the latest auction, Power should see growth in its capacity revenues through 2018. The generating fleet's operational flexibility continues to be demonstrated during this period of low energy pricing. Improved performance from the nuclear fleet and increased production in the gas fired combined cycle fleet offset a decline in production at the coal fired stations. Our nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 95% for the quarter, producing 7.8 TWh of output, representing 53% of total generation. This also represents a 3% increase in output. Performance of the nuclear facilities benefited from the absence of repair work at Salem 2 in 2014 and showed improvement year-over-year in spite of an early start to the refueling outage at Peach Bottom 3. Production from the gas fired combined cycle fleet increased 7% to 5.4 TWh for the quarter, representing 36% of total generation. The fleet operated extremely well running at an average capacity factor of 73% during the quarter in response to market demand. Output also benefited from the completion of capacity enhancement work at the Linden and Bergen stations which added 94 megawatts to the two stations over the past year. Warmer than normal summer weather had a favorable impact on the dispatch of our peaking fleet as dispatch of our coal fired assets was affected by lower wholesale energy prices. Wholesale market energy prices during the quarter continue to reflect a decline in the price of gas based on an overabundance of gas supply in the region, strong production of gas from the Marcellus Basin coupled with insufficient takeaway pipeline capacity has not unexpectedly resulted in lower prices for gas. Power's combined cycle fleet benefited from its access to low cost gas supply in the summer and enjoyed strong spark spreads as power prices held up better than the price of gas. Power fleet is expected to produce energy at the lower end of its forecasted range of output for 2015 of 55 to 57 terawatt hours, reflecting reduced expectations for output from our coal-fired stations. This was slightly less than our prior forecast and would provide a nominal increase in output year-over-year. Approximately 80% to 85% of anticipated production for the fourth quarter is hedged at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. Moving to 2016, Power has hedged 65% to 70% of its forecasted generation of 55 to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. For 2017 Power has hedged 35% to 40% of its forecasted generation of 55 to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. The percent of energy hedged in ‘16 and ‘17 is consistent with but at the lower end of the range for Power's prescribed ratable hedging policy. And the forecast for ’16 and ’17 continues to assume that 11 to 12 terawatt hours of annual output are hedged at BGS prices. Forecast range for Power's operating earnings for 2015 has been narrowed to $620 million to $650 million from the $620 million to $680 million prior range. This forecast of operating earnings represents adjusted EBITDA for the full year in the range of $1,545 billion to $1,595 billion. Now, turning to enterprise and other where we reported operating earnings of $11 million or $0.03 per share for the third quarter of 2015 versus operating earnings of $22 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2014 and the decline in operating earnings reflects the absence of prior year tax benefits at Energy Holdings partially offset by lower expenses and higher interest income at the parent. And the forecast for enterprise and other full-year earnings for 2015 remains $40 million to $50 million. And lastly relating to financing, PCG closed the quarter with $271 million of cash on its balance sheet with debt at the end of the quarter representing 41.5% of consolidated capital. PCG's five-year capital program has increased to $15.6 billion with the announced agreements for PSE&G and Power's plans to develop new capacity. PSE&G's capital program represents 75% of our planned capital expenditures with Power's capital program representing 25%. Given our strong balance sheet and expectations for Power's free cash flow generation, we're able to finance our capital requirements without the need to issue equity. So as mentioned, we are pleased to update our guidance for 2015's operating earnings to $2.85 to $2.95 per share and results in this range would represent the third year of growth in operating earnings. And we're now ready for your questions.