Kevin Neveu
Analyst · TD Securities
Thank you, Carey and good afternoon. Well, as Carey explained, our business performance in every service line in every region is strong and continues to improve. I'm especially thrilled to have returned to profitability. And the next key benchmark we are focusing on is a return on capital target but more on that later. I'll start by recapping our recent Kuwaiti contract award. We are very pleased to have been awarded the 4 contracts which include reactivation of 2 of our idle rigs, bringing our active rig count up to 5 rigs in Kuwait by mid-2023. I want to thank our international team. for their hard work and perseverance on the successful bid process as stressed over several quarters. I remind you that these are very large 3,000-horsepower Super Triple rigs with the revenue and margin profile that looks a lot more like 2 North American rigs reach Kuwaiti rig. Coupled with our recent contract renewals in Saudi Arabia, all 8 international rigs will be operating under 5-year terms. We continue to look for other good opportunities to activate more of our remaining 5 idle rigs in the region. Our international business and on its own is a meaningful and stable contributor to Precision's cash flow profile and now with firm visibility through the latter part of this decade. And now following up on our recent well service acquisition, as Carey mentioned, the financial performance of Precision's well service business is strong. Tom and his team have done an excellent job integrating the acquisition while also keeping their focus on the business at hand. They're ahead of plan, achieving the expected synergies and I believe will just continue to perform well for the foreseeable future. Now as customer budgets wind down later this year and we hit the holiday season in mid-December, we expect a short-term moderation in activity. However, customer bookings and indicated demand for the winter season through 2023 full year will likely exceed [indiscernible] ability to staff at those rigs. Now I think this is an area where Precision's reputation coupled with our recruiting and training capabilities creates a meaningful competitive advantage. We recently hosted a group of analysts for 2 of our new is drilling where we highlighted our new employee recruiting and training capabilities including showcasing our Alpha equipped Super Training rig. We also introduced the group triathlete acquisition teams based on the SQ Center. By the way, for any of you who attended the tour may be able to career change, we're accepting applications assuming you pass our controlled substance screening. I'm sure that those of you that were able to attend came away with a view that Precision is well on top of the recruiting challenge is very well positioned to deploy high quality and very well trained for tell the field for our drilling rigs. I'm expecting a significant challenge accruing across the industry this winter for all OFS services but I believe our recruiting and training teams excluded confidence we're up to the task. Now as we've been saying for several quarters, the Canadian drilling market is very strong for Precision. Today, we have 73 rigs running which, as expected, exceeds our winter peak from earlier this year. Our Super Triple fleet is fully booked for the coming winter and should have 100% utilization during Q1. During the third quarter, we redeployed another ST-1200 from the U.S. to Canada. And those of you that attended our [indiscernible] will have seen that rig in Big 5 in our yard undergoing recertifications. That rig is now on location and drilling under a long-term contract for an oil and gas operator focused on LNG. So clearly, LNG drilling activity is underway and will increase for the next several years in demand for Precision's already fully utilized Super Triple fleet. While term contracts in Canada are less common, customers are increasingly looking to secure access to our Super Triple rigs by locking in those rigs with long-term take-or-pay contracts rather than running the risk -- the availability risk of the traditional pricing agreement with no firm use commitment. Besides guaranteed access to a rig, the primary customer benefit of a take-or-pay rig contract is recruitment and retention. That steady income opportunity, firm work schedule and close operating relationship with their oil company stabilizes the rig crew and the reposition. This factor alone has substantial value for all customers. With strong commodity prices and a weaker Canadian dollar, conventional heavy oil and Clearwater activity is accelerating, driving high customer demand for our super single rigs which are achieving the highest utilization level since 2014 and we expect continued growth into next year. Our EverGreen products, including battery systems, fuel monitoring apps and lighting systems are gaining wide market appeal. Billing activity for the new EverGreen products approached 2,000 days during the third quarter and are meaningfully contributing to Canadian revenues and margins. The outlook for Canadian drilling activity is strong. Based on our customer expectations, we expect to see peak winter activity levels approach and likely exceed 80 rigs. With these high demand levels, our confidence in our margin guidance is firm. Now turning to the U.S. While industry rig additions have moderated, our rig count continues to grow higher our customers look to displace lower-performing rigs with precisions Super Triples and particularly look to activate our AlphaAutomation services. We expect this trend to continue through 2023 with our current Super Triple fleet to be fully utilized during the first half of next year. There's a lot of talk about rates in the upper 30s and approaching $40,000 per day. While we agree with that I would point out that with our a la carte add-ons such as AlphaAutomation Alpha apps, EverGreen products and managed pressure drilling systems -- we have several rigs at all in rates well above that range. During the third quarter, over 20 rigs repriced to the current market rates. In the fourth quarter, we expect 10 to 15 rigs to reprice at a similar pace in the first quarter of next year. Based on our current contract book, our Super Triple utilization and the customer interest we see, we have a degree of confidence in our forward margins and guidance for the U.S. Now our press release mentioned that we're ahead of schedule on AlphaAutomation installations and we our full super-spec fleet kind by early 2024, almost a year ahead of our plan. The value proposition for Alpha is compelling in customer is outpacing your expectations. Our technology deployment team has been very busy installing Alpha kits but more importantly, also training our drillers to become alpha drillers, however, is shadowed to our technology and remote ops team for the great job they're doing training and supporting our new Alpha drillers. Now our Alpha drillers love how Alpha automation frees them up from all the mundane and highly repetitive tasks they typically perform in manual drilling. With Alpha, they're better able to leave their crew and oversee the whole drilling operation. Alpha substantially improves the drilling performance, the crew safety and the overall execution of the customer's well plan. Everybody wins. So I want to circle back on pricing and value for a moment. And our customers in both Canada and the U.S. are struggling with cost inflation across all OFS services and I know the drilling rig rate inflation is concerning for them. So our sales team's job to help our customers understand our cost drivers, our capital investments and the efficiency gains driving the incredible value we are delivering today. When considering today's day rates, 3 factors must come into play which are different than prior cycles. First of all, Precision's cost to operate a rig with labor and supply inflation has risen more than $4,000 per day. But in addition to the inflationary factors, we have cost inflation driven by increased maintenance due to the accelerated wear on equipment and the higher pace of drilling today. The second factor is a substantial increase in capital equipment scope such as additional mud pumps, generators, advanced mud cleaning equipment, rig walking systems, other upgrades on the rigs. These upgrades have involved significant investments by Precision but also the increased operating cost for the rig as the equipment is more complex requires more maintenance. These requirements still impact the potential new build or replacement cost for rig. 2014's $25 million rig with today's super-spec equipment, scope and steel inflation would likely cost over $35 million to build and that's only if the components are available in the supply chain which is highly unlikely. The third factor to consider is the efficiency gains these upgraded rigs deliver and the value we create through that efficiency. If you look back at the prior peak for day rates which would have been 2014 that compare overall rig efficiency then through today, the results are startling. In the U.S., across Precision's fleet, we're drilling wells 55% faster today compared to 2014. In Canada, drilling productivity has more than doubled when compared to 2014. Now, these efficiency gains have been driven by those capital upgrades we've talked about, the [indiscernible] pad walking systems, mud pump capacity, generating capacity, mud -- pipe racking capabilities, drilling automation, drilling, digital optimization and improved crude capabilities. The equipment, the crew and the digital capabilities have driven a massive step change in drilling performance. So it's fair to conclude that while day rates are well up from the lows of 2020, the value and cost of our rigs, the crews and technology has been substantially increased and the value we provide to our customers has never been better. On that pricing note, I've been saying for several quarters that our sales team was tasked with pressing rates upwards to aid in Precision's return to profitability. So I need to give a shout-out to our Canadian and U.S. sales teams who've taken on that challenge. Thanks, team. Yet we still have work to do. We need to continue to improve our results as we drive to achieve a reasonable rate of return on our investment and we're on that path making good progress but we still have a ways to go. In short, great work, team but please keep it up. Regarding our strategic priorities, all 3 are on track. I mentioned our digital EverGreen market growth earlier. We've reaffirmed our debt reduction plan and we will achieve our goal. And Precision's improving operating margins also reflect our strict cost controls and serve to demonstrate our operational leverage. So to wrap up, I'd like to thank our shareholders and our customers for their continued support. And during my early prepared notes, I gave a shout to a few of our PD groups. The rest of the PD team, I want to sincerely thank all of you for your hard work, your focus and the great results you're producing this year. Thank you. I'll now turn the call back to your operator for questions.