Earnings Labs

Precision Drilling Corporation (PDS)

Q2 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 27, 2022

$98.92

+2.35%

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Transcript

Carey Ford

Management

Thank you, Michelle, and good afternoon. Before we begin our call, I'm pleased to introduce Lavon , who joined Precision a little over a month ago as Director of Investor Relations. Lavon will be overseeing Investor Relations activities for Precision and we are delighted to have her on our team. With that, I'll hand it over to Lavon.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Welcome to Precision Drilling's 2022 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Participating on today's call with me will be Kevin Neveu, President and CEO and Carey Ford, our CFO. Earlier this morning, Precision reported strong second quarter results, which Carey will review with you, followed by an operational update and outlook commentary from Kevin. Once we have finished our prepared comments, we will open the call to question. Some of our comments today will refer to non-IFRS financial measures and will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Please see our news release and other regulatory filings for more information on financial measures, forward-looking statements, and risk factors. As a reminder, we express our financial results in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. Kevin, over to you for some introductory comments.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thank you, Lavon and good afternoon. For today's earnings call, I'd like to draw your attention to three key themes. First, customer demand for our super triple drilling rigs in our U.S. and Canadian markets continues to strengthen and with extremely limited industry supply rates and margins continue to increase. Second, we continue to make excellent progress maximizing operational leverage, tightly controlling our costs, and expanding our margins. Our well servicing acquisition will deliver cost synergies and fuel margin leverage and all of our leading indicators are pointing to stronger financial performance for the remainder of this year and through 2023. And third, we are firmly on track to deliver on all 2022 strategic priorities, which includes scaling our digital and ESG offerings, generating free cash flow and strengthening our balance sheet, and reducing both debt and debt leverage. I'll now ask Carey review our second quarter financial results.

Carey Ford

Management

Thanks Kevin. Precision's revenue in the second quarter was CAD326 million, 62% higher than the same period last year, while adjusted EBITDA of CAD64 million more than doubled from Q2 2021. On an annualized basis, adjusted EBITDA if we exclude stock-based compensation, and the well control event was CAD75 million. The results reflect steadily increasing North American drilling activity and demonstrate our success and maximizing operational leverage to expand margins. Q2 drilling activity increased 41% in the U.S. and 35% in Canada compared to the same period last year and day rates increased 25% in the U.S. and 30% in Canada. During the quarter, we experienced a well control event on a turnkey project in the U.S. The crew followed proper procedures and was able to evacuate the well site safely with no injuries. We are appreciative of our field leadership's actions resulting in this safe outcome. As per the accounting for the event, we are recognizing a gain on disposal of approximately $4 million, the difference between the net book value and the insured value of the rig. We are booking zero revenue, a loss of $5 million for the cost of the job and the insurance deductible. We are writing off the net book value of the rig of $1 million through depreciation. For the associated well site cleanup and remediation costs, we are accruing $12 million and accounts payable and offsetting the payable with $16 million in insurance receivables, which covers the expected cleanup and remediation cost and the insured value of the rig minus a $1 million deductible associated with the turnkey job. Remediation process is ongoing and any decreases or increases in costs will be reflected on Precision's balance sheet until insurance proceeds are received. For the quarter, the negative impact to adjusted EBITDA was…

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thank you, Carey. There's no doubt that the customer demand and market tightness we discussed in our first quarter conference call is gaining momentum and we see this across all North American service lines. In the United States, we're currently operating 57 rigs with confirmed bookings and contracts, we expect activity to climb into the high 60s later this year and virtually all Precision a Super Triple rigs will be active. Day rates continue to rise as industry supply is very tight for this rig class and customer is sensing rigs shortages are willingly walking in term contracts at the highest leading edge rates. Since the beginning of this year, we've added 39 term contracts. Some of these involving rig upgrades, Carey mentioned earlier, ranging from automation to the addition of third pumps with generators and padlocking systems. Also included are several EverGreen Battery Energy Storage systems, EverGreen Highline Power systems, and the EverGreen Power Management and Emissions Monitoring apps. As Carey mentioned, all capital upgrades are backed by take-or-pay contracts which will return the capital invested both in the contract term. Today all of Precision's active Superior Triple rigs are drilling in multi-well pads and all -- virtually all have extended horizontal drilling capabilities. Over two-thirds of these rigs utilize Alpha Automation and Alpha Apps, and many are adopting Alpha Analytics to further enhance drilling performance. Leading it's day rates for these rigs is now approaching the mid-30s range with the Alpha Digital Services over and above that rate. With Alpha and other services such as managed pressure drilling support, some bill rates now are in the high-30s to CAD40,000 per day range. Market pricing discipline remains a key tactical consideration and during the quarter we rejected several bid opportunities with customer pricing expectations below our desired thresholds. We…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Aaron MacNeil with TD Securities. Your line is now open.

Aaron MacNeil

Analyst

Afternoon all. Thanks for taking my questions. Kevin, can you speak to what the capital commitment and scope of upgrade might be for the range of contracts? You signed this quarter and maybe a particular focus on a handful multiyear contracts that you signed? I guess, to ask the question more specifically, are those longer term contracts a result of a higher upgrade cost? And where are you at in sort of in terms of the marginal capital cost of reactivation?

Kevin Neveu

Management

I'll catch part of this and Carey pick up part of it, Aaron. So, first of all, let me kind of cover what we're seeing in customer trends from contracting. I would say that the longer term contracts are linked to longer term customer spending plans. They're not linked to trying to extend the payback terms on a capital investment. We're targeting IRRs on these investments that are straight set of the -- well above our cost of capital, but really looking at payback terms that return that capital probably in most cases in less than a year, despite contractors might be 18 months or two years. The scope of the upgrades are typically in the CAD1 million to CAD3 million range. If the rig needs a third pump, if it needs a fourth generator and a padlocking system that would be the upper end of that range. We'll call that CAD3 million and maybe in some cases, CAD4 million if you're adding on Alpha. Many of these though, it might just be like a third pump with generator or just an Alpha upgrade. So, there's a range. The range is really from CAD0.5 million to CAD3 million or a little bit beyond CAD3 million. Carey, you want to discuss activation piece at little bit?

Carey Ford

Management

Yes. So, I'll just add some of those upgrades also include EverGreen products such as battery packs. So, we've got that range of kind of CAD0.5 million to CAD3 million or CAD4 million. And in terms of -- and that's all going to be on the capital side. And then on the U.S. -- in the U.S. market, where we continue to incur some costs on reactivating rigs, they've gotten a bit more expensive from the CAD150,000 to CAD250,000 range that we quoted most of last year and into the first part of this year. And now the rig reactivations, are really kind of more than that CAD250,000 to maybe CAD500,000 range. So, there's a bit more operating expense as we reactivate rigs in the U.S.

Aaron MacNeil

Analyst

Understood. Kevin, on the paid Alpha days, I was surprised to see they're only at 4% year-over-year. Was there anything unusual going on this quarter? And do you expect to see growth in percentage terms over the balance of the year or--?

Kevin Neveu

Management

I think my guys are increasing utilization, which should help to point you towards some of that growth. And we're getting to the point now, where we're only adding -- I think we added five Alpha systems in the first quarter. So, the -- we're getting into the case where the base numbers are big enough that growth of 50% is going to be a little bit hard to expect going forward.

Aaron MacNeil

Analyst

Understood.

Kevin Neveu

Management

And certainly there's no resistance. If you make it a little bit of seasonality in Canada, there's a bit of an explanation for some of that reduction. So, just a few moving pieces in the second quarter, I think Q3 results should be a little more indicative of the trajectory.

Aaron MacNeil

Analyst

Maybe I'll sneak one clarification question in as well. The CAD5 million in operating costs related to the well control event, even with the CAD1 million deductible, it just seems like a lot. What's actually in that number if there are mediations accounted for separately -- again, it just strikes me as a lot in the context of what a well might actually cost to drill?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Aaron, we're drilling turnkey wells in -- along the Gulf Coast in the typically gas wells. And these walls could be anywhere in total cost from let's say, one to one to 10 million. So, what you're seeing in this case is kind of the full cost of the well, at this point, we haven't begun to re-drill or reenter this well, we're still finishing up the remediation, I'd expect that we'll go back in and sidetrack and redraw this wall and finish it off and recover a significant portion of that, but we're not give any guidance on that yet.

Aaron MacNeil

Analyst

Got it. Understood. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll turn it over.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

One moment please for our next question. Our next question comes from Waqar Syed with ATB Financial. Your line is open.

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

Thank you for taking my question. Kevin in terms of the well abandonment programs, it looks like there's a lot of runway in Alberta, it requires a lot of additional work. But you also have the federal program that could end at some point. How do you see the well abandonment program with a long-term kind of play out? And how does this acquisition kind of fit into that?

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

Waqar, good questions. There's a several kind of moving pieces right now around abandonment. I think probably one of the more important things we didn't necessarily call is that the Alberta energy regulator has is increasing the requirements on the operators to invest in abandonment. So, there's an increasing push, forcing operators to manage those abandonments to approve the abandonment and manage abandonment. We're seeing rising, I call it core demand on abandonments over and above the funded program that the federal government administered by the province. So, you've got kind of three things playing together right now a really heavy business, higher commodity prices, stimulating some of that catch up maintenance work. You've got this regulator requirements, it's going to increase the amount of maintenance work to abandon whales, and you've got the tail end of the federal abandonment program that's got to be spent between now and next February. So, we see a lot of drivers kind of the short-term, but some longer term drivers around company obligations abandoned wells and an AR increasing requirements. Certainly, we think that the business -- the well servicing business has a very strong outlook, with these -- with moderate to high commodity prices. Looking at the activity we have kind of booked for the fall of winter right now. I think our timing of this acquisition was key for us, and we're keen to get that rig count up into the 80s, maybe higher as we bring on more staff.

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

And certainly you have critical mass and in Canada in well servicing and how do you see your U.S. business? Is that the core business for you?

Kevin Neveu

Management

For us, we have a kind of like a wedge or a sliver in North Dakota, it borders on Saskatchewan. The assets are similar, the type of customers are similar effects and similar customers work both sides of the border. So, while it is U.S. revenue, it's adjacent to what we're doing in Canada. Here is adjacency than a strategic push in the U.S.

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

And Carey, the leading edge margins look to be in that -- in the U.S. and CAD13,500 to CAD15,000 type kind of range. Is it still you think six to nine months to get to the fleet to those kinds of margins?

Carey Ford

Management

I think, as Kevin said, we've got historical precedence that usually is how long it takes to get the leading edge into complete averages. We've given guidance for -- specific guidance for Q3. I think we've gotten some soft guidance for Q4 and then, look for continuing guidance quarter or two forward. Certainly for the Super Triple 1,500, we're seeing the fleet reprice to that leading edge array, and then the 1200s are pricing a little bit lower. So I think, certainly we've got some runway to get it meaningfully over CAD10,000. But I'll stop short of giving guidance on what this what the ultimate fleet average margin is going to be next year.

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

Sure. And just one final question. In terms of the rig involved in the well control incident, I understand that total write-off, what type of rig was involved?

Kevin Neveu

Management

It was one of our legacy 2,000 horsepower rigs was upgraded to horizontal capabilities and we have another rig in the fleet that we'll be bringing into we redrill that well, and continue with our turnkey business.

Waqar Syed

Analyst · ATB Financial. Your line is open.

Great. Thank you very much.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thank you, Waqar.

Carey Ford

Management

Thanks Waqar.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Operator, you can queue the next question for us, please.

Operator

Operator

Yes. Our next call comes from Cole Pereira with Stifel. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Cole Pereira

Analyst

Afternoon, everyone. Kevin, you talked on it a little bit, but thinking about leading edge Canadian day rates in the low CAD30,000 a day range, so from your comments, is that enough you think to move a rig up from the DJ? Or does it have to move a little bit higher? And from some of your discussions today? Where do you think these leading edge rates in Canada could go in the winter?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Well, Cole, those are really great questions. I've got at least 35 customers who would like to have the same answer. That said that rig that we're talking about that could move up in the U.S. also has an opportunity cost tied to U.S. operations. So, we would need to see a differential in rates that would cover the move cost, at least. And I'd say that probably rates below CAD30,000, don't do that. But as you get into the 30s and if you've got if we have the opportunity to bring health on and things like that, then we're getting into the right territory.

Cole Pereira

Analyst

Okay, got it. And you talked a little bit about in Canada, but just the significant tail, tail winds for USB rates. I mean, are you concerned at all that other drillers could start thinking about new builds? Or does it just not make sense, as you can do a large scale upgrade and more economic rate?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Certainly, I think there's a pool of rigs in the U.S. We have some of those ourselves. Looking at our fleet for just a moment, we have beyond our current fleet of super triples the U.S. we have another 12 to 15 high spec DC ser rigs that have AC tough drives, and the conversion cost to bring those rigs into kind of full super spec, we think about in the range of CAD12 million to CAD14 million per rig, substantially less than a new build. If day move up into the upper 30s for the rig itself, which to the trajectory certainly appears that way that we're probably looking at those upgrades sometime in in calendar 2023 and stretching beyond that. I think our industry has probably collectively somewhere between 75 and 100 rigs that look like that, that can do the same thing. So, I think that we're still quite a ways away from a full on shortage of rigs. I'd also comment that Precision Drilling being a public company and most of our large scale peers are all public companies. This capital discipline theme remains fundamental to everything we're doing. And we certainly see that behavior among our peers. So, I think there's a lot of reluctance to growing rig fleets and investing capital right now when capital is so scarce and, and we're being valued based on the returns, we can generate, not on the growth profile. So, I just don't see new builds on the horizon, I do see potential for these moderately costed upgrades. And in a world where you can get CAD36,000 or CAD38,000 a day for a rig, which is drilling wells in 10 days, that's really not a big incremental cost on the well. I think we have another 12 or 15 rigs we could bring into play next year.

Cole Pereira

Analyst

Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thanks. That's all for me. I'll turn it back.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thank you. Operator, please queue up the question for us.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Keith MacKey from RBC.

Keith MacKey

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to start out on the rig contracts and the additions coming into the field the second half of this year. Looks like your current customer mix in the U.S. is predominantly private company-weighted, a little bit more gas-weighted than oil, can you just comment on where and what types of customers these upcoming rigs might be working for?

Kevin Neveu

Management

I see a probably a more blended mix of both public's looking forward private. So, public have been more reluctant to add rigs. And it's certainly seen year-to-date industry-wide and Precision, for sure, much more traction on the private side of the business. And I can even tell you I'm looking forward at our bid book, which still remains quite strong. It's still primarily comprised of ones and twos and we don't see the huge shifts into growth yet. We do see a public E&Ps looking to start to focus on recovering and rebuilding or balancing their completions with their drilling. So, I think we'll see a few rigs start to creep back in through public drillers that are publicly E&Ps that need to start to rebuild their inventory of declining DUCs. So, I'd say that it's really early weighted looking forward and more public-weighted looking forward.

Keith MacKey

Analyst

Thanks for that Kevin. Maybe just turning to the capital. So CAD149 million now for 2022, maybe if you could just comment on your average maintenance capital per rig, that'll give us a bit of a baseline to get into 2023. And then is there any growth capital associated with these latest contracts that will also spill into 2023?

Carey Ford

Management

Okay, so Keith, this is Carey. We haven't given guidance for 2023 spend, we'll do that later this year. We'll give an indication what that looks like. But in terms of the maintenance, think about it as about CAD1,600 to CAD1,800 per activity day is what our maintenance capital costs are trending.

Keith MacKey

Analyst

Got it. Perfect. And then -- yes just on the latest contracts. Is all of that capital spent this year like the incremental budget for this year? Or is there some that'll spill into next year? We just have to kind of assume for ourselves how much that is based on for rig upgrade and so forth?

Carey Ford

Management

Yes, so the outlook that we gave the CAD149 million upgrade capital will all be spent this year, the rigs that will be going to work at the end of this year. There may be some drill pipe in the maintenance that we've pre-purchased that will take delivery of it at the end of the year, that's for 2023 activity. And in terms of the upgrades, they're all rigs, they're going to go to work before the end of the year.

Keith MacKey

Analyst

Okay, thanks. That's helpful. That's it for me. Back to the operator.

Carey Ford

Management

Thanks Keith.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Thanks Keith.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Okay, operator -- go ahead.

Operator

Operator

Okay, at this time, I am not showing any other questions in the queue.

Kevin Neveu

Management

We see one more question.

Operator

Operator

One moment please. Okay, our next question comes from John Daniel. Sir, your line is open.

John Daniel

Analyst

Hey great, thanks for squeezing me in guys. Sorry for being slow to queue up. Hey, Kevin, I'm going to -- hopefully you'll be willing to take this one. But looking to your crystal ball where do you think that your rig count in the U.S. could reasonably peak next year and a range is fine, I'm just trying to get a feel for if it's low 70s, high 70s, low 80s, just sort of what your gut tells you at this point?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Yes, as I describing kind of a last question around these next round of upgrades, I think it's quite likely that the industry is upgrading DCS rigs to AC and making those rigs, superstack rigs, I think will be just based on that. And I can see us easily upgrading anywhere from five to 15 of those rigs next year. So, it's better activity, I'd think into the mid-80s. John, that's assuming I would call that all development drilling.

John Daniel

Analyst

Right.

Kevin Neveu

Management

I think there's potential for some of our legacy rigs to be used for exploration, drilling and delineation self-drilling. So, we could see rig move a little higher. But it's probably easier for me to get my arms around development drilling increasing. But at some point, we know these operators have to do some exploration work or some delineation work. So, I think there's opportunities for Super Triple rigs and upgrade some Super Triple rigs to get those median day rates. But I also think we'll see some emerging opportunities for some of the vertical rigs to do delineation work or kind of low spec, horizontal drilling.

John Daniel

Analyst

And if they wanted -- if you started to see the inquiries for that next call it five to 15, we keep hearing about lead-time issues throughout -- all of the companies we talked to, when what would be the time required to get that first one out if you -- when you get the call next year?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Yes. I actually -- I think the call probably comes late this year. But I would say that least on our type of upgrade is probably something like three to four months.

John Daniel

Analyst

Okay.

Kevin Neveu

Management

And we saw some inventories of products we can use and pull off some of the rigs that aren’t running if we need to get those rigs faster. We've got some priority positions with some of our vendors. I think the -- I think drill pipe would be a critical task, but I feel pretty good about the AC systems and the generators and the hopes and top drives.

Carey Ford

Management

And John, this is Carey, I would just add in that, if that does happen, that seems like a lot of capital for growth, but the implied day rates in that type of environment would generate a significant amount of cash flow to where we would be able to fund those upgrades within cash flow for the year and still meet our debt reduction goals.

John Daniel

Analyst

That’s a good problem, okay. A bit of a softball, not intended to be a softball, but more of an educational question for me. But on Alpha Automation, I mean, you guys have made great progress over the last several quarters. And I would assume with more and more and more systems, you've got much better data about the rig performance, those with it versus those without it, can you just remind us elaborate a little bit on sort of the differences you've seen to-date where it might go?

Kevin Neveu

Management

So, a couple of things. For sure, we can validate the time savings, the value of the base platform Alpha Automation. I'd say that different customers have valued apps differently. They just have different programs and certain apps work for them, some don't. But like most apps, whether it's apps on your phone, some people for Google Maps, some prefer Apple Maps, I get that. And we're seeing that kind of emerging on the outside. But I would tell you that I think that look out, like three or four years, it's hard to imagine that every development drilling rig on a pad isn't using automation, whether it's our system or somebody else's system, every rig should be -- every single rig should be using automation. Every single rig should be using some basket of apps that that operator thinks are appropriate for their program.

John Daniel

Analyst

But you can see, I presume, a demonstrable difference in performance between those without versus as with or no?

Kevin Neveu

Management

Well, here's what I'll say, certain operators with intense engineering and company man oversight can convince themselves that they can make the rig run as fast as that -- driller working really fast at his peak performance. It is really hard for a driller to be on 100% on 12 hours a day, 10 days in a row.

John Daniel

Analyst

Yes.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Software eliminates all of that human uncertainty and what we have seen is that we can get that best well, every single time with every driller. We don't have to have the best driller. We don't have to have the driller fully rested.

John Daniel

Analyst

Right. Okay.

Kevin Neveu

Management

And we've got case studies that demonstrate that quite clearly.

John Daniel

Analyst

That's what I was asking. Okay, cool. That's all I needed. Guys, hey, thank you for including me.

Kevin Neveu

Management

Great. Thanks a lot, John.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference back to Lavon for closing remarks.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Thank you to everyone for joining and participating on our call. If you have any follow-up questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to Carey or myself. With that, we will sign-off. Have a great day.