Earnings Labs

Pampa Energía S.A. (PAM)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 7, 2024

$82.02

+1.76%

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Transcript

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Good morning everyone and thank you for waiting. I'm Raquel Cardasz from IR, and we would like to welcome everyone to Pampa Energía's Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Video Conference. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. All participants will be in a listen-only mode, during the presentation. After the company's remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Questions can only be submitted in writing form. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, please read the disclaimer on the second page of our presentation. Let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on Pampa Energía's management beliefs and assumptions and information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, because they are related to future events that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic and industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energía and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the video conference over to Lida. Please go ahead.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Hello everybody. Thank you for joining us to this another new quarter. I will make a quick summary of Q4. You may find more details - in our earnings release, or financial statements. Today we have for the Q&A our CEO, Gustavo Mariani; our CFO, Nicolás Mindlin; our Head of E&P, Horacio Turri; our Head of Finance, [Pito Zulegoulas], so full team here. Well, so let's quickly review 2023. This is another challenging year, but it did not prevent us from growing and delivering milestone. In 2023 we will reach again a new peak in gas production exceeding 16 million cubic meters per day. This is a remarkable 44% increase, compared to the 2022 record. Thanks to the new pipeline facilitating additional eastbound evacuation and our active campaign Vaca Muerta. However, average production did not take off as expected, due to soft demand from mild weather and poor thermal dispatch. For the first time in nine years, we deliver below the take or pay. Pampa E&P is mostly gas production, but for now on we aim to diversify with shallow oil from Rincon de Aranda. Power generation did not stay quiet either. In 2023, we commissioned Ensenada Barragan's CCGT, PEPE number IV wind farm, adding 360 megawatts of efficient energy. We also will be inaugurated this year PEPE VI, which is total install capacity of 140 megawatts. So with all online we will be reaching 5.5 gigawatts, by the end of this year. EBITDA fell 12% year-on-year. This is mainly because of reduced gas sales mentioned before and the impact of the steep peso depreciation over our affiliates. This is Transener and TGS. We will address this issue later. Our way of management helped us to gain efficiencies and be savvy over business and balance sheet. We used our robust…

A - Raquel Cardasz

Analyst

Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] So our first question comes from Alejandro Demichelis from Jefferies.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

The first one says, how do you see upstream production and sales evolving in 2024?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Sorry for the delay. The question was about sales. Can you repeat this question?

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Yes. How do you see upstream production and sales evolving in 2024?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Okay. Oil productions we see it fairly flat. We will put in production tools from Rincon de Aranda that we will be testing in the next few months, but that will have a marginal impact on our overall production of oil. Regarding natural gas, as you recall in July or August of last year, once the Gasoducto, the Nestor Kirchner Pipeline became online, we began to sold what we were awarded in the last round of the Plan Gas auction. And there, we were awarded a flat 4.8 million cubic meters of natural gas per day, throughout the year. So, when you compare what we are expecting in 2024 vis-a-vis what we sold in average in 2023, we believe it's going to be around 30% increase in sales in natural gas 2024 vis-a-vis 2023. That means around an average of 13.5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day average in 2024 vis-a-vis 10.0 something 10.3 I believe was the average quantity of gas sold during 2023. That's upstream sales.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Yes. Thank you. Alejandro's second question says, how do you see power generation sales and prices evolving in 2024? Nicolás Mindlin: Healthy here, but the power generation sales will be increased, by the fact that we are currently building a new wind farm of 140 megawatt, that will be fully online by the third quarter of this year, but probably, it will have partial inaugurations beginning in June/July of this year. So, that sales from those wind farms, as they become online, will increase our production capabilities this year. Regarding prices, as you know, two-thirds of our EBITDA comes from PPAs, from sales through PPAs, where prices are fixed, and so we don't expect any change there. Regarding legacy capacity that accounts for about one-third of the EBITDA generation of the power generation segment, we were just granted in February an increase of 74%. So, but - so, we hope that the remuneration will remain, in real terms, fairly flat despite the inflationary environment we are living in. Regarding eventual regulatory changes, we still don't have any visibility on that.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much both. The next questions come from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. First one is, can you walk us through Pampa's 2024 CapEx budget for each of the business segments? What projects are already sanctioned and are these projects that can still be considered this year? Nicolás Mindlin: Projects already sanctioned? What does it mean? Can you repeat it?

Lida Wang

Analyst

PEPE VI we are already doing that. Nicolás Mindlin: Thank you, Bruno, for your question. Regarding CapEx, we have a very aggressive plan, but we are currently revising that aggressive plan given the, let's say, financial crisis that we are living on CAMMESA, which is an important part of our revenues. Thankfully, CAMMESA today accounts for around 40%, 45% of our overall revenues, but the delays that we are suffering are forcing us to revise our CapEx plan. Basically, before this situation, our CapEx plan were around $700 million, $500 million on the E&P segment, basically half of it new wells, and the other half infrastructure, both for Rincon de Aranda and for Sierra Chata. On power generation, CapEx were around - we were expecting to spend around $200 million, around $130 million it's the wind farm PEPE VI, which is already on track. And I have already mentioned when we are expecting to be online, and that won't be delayed. The other $70 million is regular maintenance of our power plant, and we are currently revising, what can be delayed and at what cost. So, we are currently revising those plans as well.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. The next three questions from Bruno are for the E&P segment. First one says, there were encouraging news from Sierra Chata supporting the increasing gas reserve. What is the production profile expected for the field?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

Hello, everybody. Thank you for your question. We've been pretty successful in developing so far Sierra Chata field. And what we foresee in the future is a significant increase of the production that, will account approximately to 3.5 million cubic meters a day. We moved our early production facilities from Mangrullo to Sierra Chata, due to the productivity we found there. And therefore, that's the total amount of gas we will be increasing in Sierra Chata from approximately 6 million a day to 9.5 million a day. That's on an overall basis, considering our share and Exxon's share.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. Next question says, can you elaborate on your strategy to be more active in your development and production of unconventional oil blocks?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

Yes, we've been pretty active, particularly in derisking and trying to understand better our new shale oil field, which is Rincon de Aranda. As you probably know, we already drilled and completed one well, Rincon de Aranda 2000, which had pretty good results. And now, we are currently testing Rincon de Aranda 2001 that, has as a target Organico Inferior. And we only have eight days of testing, so there's not much to say about that, other than all the operations are developing normally. We expect to have results probably in 30 days from now.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you. And last question, is the company interested to participate in LNG projects being discussed in Argentina? What can we expect Pampa's roles to be on future LNG supply?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

As you recall, we mentioned in previous calls, we were studying through our subsidiary TGS one rather small project. We call it a modular project that could begin with small size and replicate those modules. Although the studies have not finished yet, our impression is that the lack of scale is a problem, that this project will lack the necessary competitiveness. So, the energy export in natural gas is key for Argentina, is key for Pampa in the long-term. So, Pampa is definitely interested in participating in a big national project like the one that YPF is carry on with another partners that we hope to be invited in the future.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. Next question comes from Marina Mertens from Latin Securities. There has been some noise regarding payments from CAMMESA, including Transener's recent release. Could you comment on what Pampa is experiencing regarding this issue, and how it might affect working capital needs? Nicolás Mindlin: Yes, as mentioned, we are experiencing, again, delays on CAMMESA payments, and the lack of visibility of how this will evolve going forward is adding some uncertainty and stress. To explain the issue a little bit further, prior to February 1, and why February 1? Since February 1, there's been an increase in what we call the seasonal price. The seasonal price, is the price that distribution companies charges. National distribution companies all around the country charges to the final users, final users being residential customers, commercial customers, or industries. And that seasonal price should cover the cost of the fuel for thermal power plants, the cost of generating electricity, and the cost of transmission. As I was saying prior to February - in February 1, there was an increase in that price that will partially help solve the situation. Prior to February 1, the situation to give you a rough idea, and to give you an idea of the magnitude of the problem, the cost of a monthly transaction for CAMMESA was around $550 million. How those - that $550 million, it goes to pay for the fuel, basically natural gas, to power generation companies and to transmission companies. How those $550 million were collected by CAMMESA, around $200 million were collected from. Or should have been collected from distribution companies, around 40%. So, that is what was being covered by the final users. And the other 60% was the subsidy, around $350 million was the subsidy that the national government was…

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much, Nicolás. Next questions come from Cristian Fera from Balanz. First one says it seems the linear hit hard on results. Do you expect this phenomenon to ease by first half of 2024?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

Well, although we are not meteorologists, we understand that 2024 is coming as a neutral year in terms of hydrology. So, that's all we have to say about that.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you. Next one says, considering the north reversal delay by ENARSA, what are your expectations for gas export to Chile during winter? Yes, considering the north reversal delay by ENARSA, what are your expectations for gas during to Chile - for gas export to Chile during winter?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

Okay. So during the winter, the exports to Chile, particularly through the GasAndes pipeline, which accounts for the most important export share to Chile is capped in 5 million cubic meters day. So, our understanding is that, that will be fully supplied. So that's the - what we understand is going to be exported to Chile during the winter.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much, Horacio. And the last question from Cristian. He wants to know if we are experiencing delays in CAMMESA?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Well, yes, I explained at length what we are suffering -- the situation of CAMMESA. But basically, what it means is that the invoice that we should have collected early January, we have only collected 50% from the invoice that mature at the beginning of February. We haven't collected anything, and we will have a new invoice maturing, I think, next Monday. So, next week we will be owed 2.5 months of -- 2.5 transactions.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you. Nicolás Mindlin: Roughly a transaction for Pampa is around $50 million to - $50 million, between $40 million and $60 million per month of transaction. So as you can imagine this means a significant effort in terms of working capital.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. Next question comes from Paula La Greca…

Lida Wang

Analyst

Sorry, this graph that shows here is for the full transaction. So, it's not like we are today 28 days debate. Today, we are more than 50 days debate. All right? This is just to clarify. And that transaction that Gustavo mentioned is still not collected yet. Once we collect it will be amounting more than 50 days it will be like that.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Next question comes from Daniel Guardiola from BTG. Any thoughts on [Technical Difficulty] energy?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

We understand that the government is working on regulatory changes, but so far, we don't have any clarity or visibility on what those changes are effectively going to be.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. Daniel Guardiola from BTG asked what is the EUR of Rincon de Aranda?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

We've so far drilled and completed only two wells, so it's too early to give information about the EURs or IP of the block. We still have a long way to go.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. Thank you. Pedal et Alier [ph] asks, can you explain how Plan Gas works during off peak season? Could you export the remaining production related to Plan Gas extension? Yes. Can you explain how Plan Gas works during off peak season? And could you export the remaining production?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

Either on peak or off peak season? What you do have is a take or pay that has to be committed by the off taker. And yes, you're okay to export all the surplus gas to Chile. But as I mentioned before, there is a cap which is the transportation capacity 9 million. Always talking about GasAndes, 9 million during the off peak season and 5 million during the winter.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you very much. And another question from Pedal et Alier is related to Plan Gas extension since 2028 price was $3.5 per million BTU, is there some price adjustment further?

Horacio Turri

Analyst

No, there is not.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

It was a fixed price.

Horacio Turri

Analyst

It was a - everybody bid it and it was awarded from down to top and that was it. It was a tender.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you, Horacio. Last question is from Alejandra Andrade from JPMorgan. Can you comment on the health of local capital markets? Nicolás Mindlin: Well, local markets as you know, there is a very tight capital controls. So there are lot of pesos still trapped in the economy. That gives companies and whoever need to cover peso needs great opportunities. You've seen us last year issuing local dollars at 5%, dollar-linked bonds at 0%, or peso fixed rates below inflation. So, negative in real terms. These pesos are still available for companies seeking pesos. We're always ready to take any opportunity to cover our needs, until the REPO [ph] is still tight, I think there will be opportunities for companies to finance in the local markets.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you, Nicolás.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst

Yes. But as the last comment what I wanted to highlight, especially for those of you that like me have a very hard time reading these financial statements, very complicated given the sharp depreciation of the peso just a few weeks before year end, the inflation accounting, et cetera and et cetera. The way I see the year, or the way I simplify year 2023 for Pampa, that I think was a remarkable year, is by taking two pictures. End of 2022, vis-a-vis the end of 2023. And what you see in those two pictures is that among several other things, but just to highlight a few points, Pampa in 2023 increased its power generation capacity by 80 megawatts. Part of that was money spent in 2022, around half of it. The other half of it was around $150 million was spent during 2023. So, we increased our capacity by 80 megawatts of wind farm. We, Pampa, did a huge increase in its natural gas production capabilities in 2023. In 2022, we had capability -- the capability to produce 11 million cubic meters of natural gas per day at a peak production. In winter 2023, we raised that capability to 16.5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day. That's a 45% increase in production capacity. That is not only drilling new wells, but also building pipelines, building gas treatment plants. So, significant effort in terms of capital expenditures. And while doing so, thanks to, again, several things, basically the strong free cash flow generation of our assets, thanks to a very successful management of our liquidity, and an excellent - and excellent liability management. As we explained given by the peso that we took at the beginning of the year, Pampa was able to reduce its net debt by one-third. We went -- we had net debt position of $900 million at the end of 2022. We now have -- at the end of 2023, we have a net debt of $600 million. So, we were able to reduce indebtedness by $150 million, and increase cash position by $100 million. So, $300 million reduction of net debt, putting us in a situation of very strong financial situation with a net debt of less than one time EBITDA. That gives an idea of Pampa capacity to finance future growth. So, I wanted to end with this optimistic comment.

Raquel Cardasz

Operator

Thank you. So there are no more questions. Thank you very much for your questions. I will now turn to Lida for final remarks.

Lida Wang

Analyst

Okay. Thank you everybody. I hope all this answers your questions. If you have any more just contact us. We will more than happy to help you. I will bid you a good day. Bye.