Earnings Labs

Pampa Energía S.A. (PAM)

Q1 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, May 14, 2019

$82.77

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Pampa Energia's First Quarter 2019 Results Conference Call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded, and all participants will be in listen-only mode during both company's presentation. After the company's remarks are complete, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Pampa Energia's management and on information currently available to both companies. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Pampa Energia and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Lida Wang, Investor Relations officer of Pampa Energia. Ms. Lida you may begin your conference.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Thank you very much, Nelly. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I will briefly go through every business segment reviewing the quarter's key figures and the latest events since our last call in March. Our CEO, Mr. Gustavo Mariani; and our CFO, Mr. Gabriel Cohen are joining us for the Q&A session. Let me start by reminding you that our financial statements follow the International Accounting Standard number 29, meaning all figures reported are adjusted by PPI inflation. What does it mean? Basically all figures in the P&L are stated as of March 2019. So, Q1 2019 results consider an average inflation of 3.8% in the quarter, while Q1 2018 results have a 58% adjustment. This also happens similarly to the cash flow statement, but there all the non-monetary items coming from the balance sheet are adjusted according to the day of record. For example, property, plant and equipment and therefore that affects the D&A. Balance sheet monetary item that is cash, credit and debt are stock and therefore there's no need for inflation adjustment. But comparative figures as of December 2018 must be restated as of March 2019, adjusting them by 11%. So as you can see in slide 4 moving to the quarter's figures in constant pesos as of March 2019 the adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2019 recorded AR$8 billion 34% less compared to an EBITDA of AR$12.2 billion recorded in the same period of 2018 mainly explained by electricity distribution E&P and to a lower extent the petrochemical and the Transener's underperformance, partially offset by our power generation business and our affiliate TGS contribution. Anyway this adjustment by inflation 101 that I just gave to you is very brief. If you have more questions please note – please note that…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Two quick ones. First on investment. So, on the back of the recent macro situation in Argentina and gas prices, how should we think about your CapEx plan and the budget for 2019 in the coming quarters? And the second one I know it's difficult to talk about gas prices during the winter, but is it fair to assume we have seen the trough in realizations now in Q1 at the $3.1 per million Btu? And if you could try to give us your best estimate of how prices will be set during the winter? So, more like the mechanism rather than the actual level that will be good for us to understand the framework. Thank you very much.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Hi, Bruno Gustavo here. How are you? Bruno regarding CapEx and due to the environment we've been adjusting what we could and what we thought will make sense. So, we have lower by roughly -- or slightly more than $100 million our CapEx on the E&P business. So, $360 million to approximately $260 million that we are going to do this year. In the case of power generation, it's the same number. We will be spending $260 million and that is to finish the two wind farms that we already did plus continuing with the expansion of Genelba of which we will be inaugurating the gas turbine in the couple of weeks. It has already done its first fire and it's on fire. And we are continuing with the closing of the cycle, so the combined cycle of Genelba will be completed by the -- by the second half of next year. Regarding gas prices I think it was second part of your question, we believe -- or we hope that we have seen the troughs.

Gabriel Cohen

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

The bottom?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes, the bottom of the pricing and that with the $3.1 average that we saw on the first quarter and we should see a pickup during the winter. But honestly, unfortunate still a regulated segment or a regulated market and it's difficult to forecast pricing and not the only portion of the segment can be contracted short-term.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

All right, that's very helpful. Thank you. very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Frank McGann with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Frank McGann

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Yes, hi. Thank you. Just two quick questions. I think one just in terms of gas production and perhaps oil production, the expectations for the next several quarters, clearly, you're cutting back on the CapEx and the overall pricing environment is less favorable. But I'm just wondering, how you're seeing the absolute level of production that you're likely to see. And then similarly, I guess, on the generation side, with the capacity that is starting up, how should we think of that in terms of potentially higher volumes as we go out into the second quarter or second half of the year?

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Hi, Frank. Well, I think the first part of your question, we couldn't hear you very clearly, but was regarding what action level for the remaining of the year. So, we think we will be producing about 7.5 million cubic meters per day during the winter and slightly lower in production to around 7 million per day after the winter during the -- on the fourth quarter. With this we'll cap off the CapEx -- approximately half of the CapEx that we mentioned in the previous question. We are able to maintain production flat and we are not only developing those wells that have extremely good returns, even at these prices. Obviously, we don't have a hundred wells like that to develop, but we have a few very productive wells that we can drill in order to keep production at this level and even at these prices are profitable. Can you repeat the second part of your question or whatever that I'm missing?

Frank McGann

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Yes. Just in terms of generation with the capacity that's been completed, how much additional generation could we potentially -- in terms of volumes, can we potentially see in the second half of the year? I know that depends on a lot of other factors as well, but just to give an idea of the kind of upside we could see in terms of volumes.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Frank, well that -- we are having in capacity is, since last Friday we added 100 megawatt of wind farm, of which we are expecting roughly 55%...

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Load factor.

Gustavo Mariani

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Yes. 55% load factor as an average for both of them and around $25 million of EBITDA annually. So I mean, Genelba what we will be adding in a few weeks from now is 180 megawatts of -- 180 megawatt of capacity out of a total of 385 mega that we will be ending on the combined cycle this close next year. This expansion, I don't have it in here in my -- the number of EBITDA that the -- no, this is another, this is the combined cycle. I don't have here the additional EBITDA that the gas turbine will be generating for the remainder of the year. But with a number that I have in my mind is that the combined cycle will be adding around $90 million of EBITDA, but that will be next year once the gas -- once the steam turbine is also operating.

Frank McGann

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay, great. That’s very helpful, Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Ms. Wang for any closing remarks.

Lida Wang

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you so much for participating in our call. Any questions you may have, our team is available for you. Have a nice day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a nice day.