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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2015 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, VP of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, sir, you may begin.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Adam. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining for us. Earlier today, we published our fourth quarter 2015 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call, and it's also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide two of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or our fiscal year unless otherwise stated. Our presenters today include Charlie Szews, Chief Executive Officer; Wilson Jones, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to slide three. And I'll turn it over to you, Charlie. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Pat, and good morning to Oshkosh's shareholders, customers and employees. With the announcement of my retirement effective December 31, this is my last earnings call, since I initiated them…

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Charlie. I'd like to remind everybody, please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up; and then after the follow-up, if you have additional questions, please get back in queue and we'd be happy to answer them. Adam, let's please begin the question-and-answer period of this phone call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Please go ahead with your question. Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Good morning, everyone. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Mig. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Maybe a little clarification if possible on your first quarter guidance, quite a bit below frankly what I expected. I guess, can you help me understand what it implies in terms of overall revenue. And I'm thinking of access in particular because I'm thinking this is where the delta was maybe you can comment on revenue there, as well as how you're thinking about margin? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, this is – Mig this is our seasonally slowest quarter, always a struggle for us in this quarter mainly because there are fewer shipping days in our fire & emergency business, for example, it's tough to get fire fighters into the plant to pickup trucks in the last month and a half in the quarter. So, it's always a difficult sort of quarter for us. Yes, we have a slow start in access equipment; we also have a slow start in defense. And what you're going to see is that we have a strong second half of the year in part because obviously construction season picks up in the second half of the year. And so those businesses would improve and we're really expecting still lot of M-ATVs in the second half. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: I'll just add one thing to Charlie. Mig, we've heard a couple of the large customers talk in the last couple of weeks about probably slower than expected CapEx during this quarter. So that adds to slowing down as for the quarter two. Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Sure. And I appreciate that, but just to make sure that you kind of get the Street to think about the quarter properly and there is no confusion here, can you maybe be a little more specific?

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Specific by segment, Mig, or what? Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Exactly. I'm trying to understand, what your view of the access segment is in the first quarter just based on what do you know today, and how we get to your overall guidance? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. It's going to be a light quarter. It will be down versus prior year. Frankly, every segment is a little bit soft in the quarter, right. If you look at our fire & emergency business, for example, over the long-term it's a tough quarter for us. Having always the weakest margin quarter in the year, it doesn't mean the year is going to be difficult. We think our fire & emergency business is going to be quite strong next year, given our backlog and everything else, but it's going to start off light. When you have all four of our segments starting off light, it gets us to a point where we're marginally profitable in the first quarter, but we feel very good about the year, I mean we've got .... Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Got it. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: backlog in defense. We are expecting another large contract imminently that gives us a lot of confidence in the year. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: And, Mig, this is Dave. Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): I appreciate that. Oh. I'm sorry, go ahead. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: The third quarter is traditionally our strongest quarter generally from a revenue and certainly from an earnings perspective, and I think the third quarter, you'll see…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Grace with Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning, gentlemen. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Ted.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

I was wondering if – I apologize if I missed this, but I was wondering if you could talk about kind of margin dynamics in 2016 for access equipment, just how you'd encourage people to think about kind of price/cost balance given you're in negotiations, the dynamics of underabsorption. It looks like the implied decrementals are that mid-20. Could you just maybe bracket kind of like what you think is the book ends of that and what the key variables are we should be thinking about as we think about profitability dynamics in 2016? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, you have a lot of questions there. It's a competitive pricing environment globally. We do expect to be flattish, maybe up a little bit, but maybe down a little bit, but it's a flattish kind of a pricing environment. Certain parts of the world the pricing environment is better. For us, for example, in Europe. But from that perspective, that's kind of where we see pricing. From a cost standpoint, the biggest factor that we're facing is fixed cost absorption, right? By taking our production levels down as significantly as we can, that's got a significant margin impact. But from a pure material standpoint, we've got positive trends for us from a material cost standpoint. From an innovation standpoint we have some positive trends as well. But I think it's going to be muted and that's why you see our annual margin estimate is down for the year by the fixed costs absorption and that's really the story.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Ted, if you think about it, you can start with what you'd consider maybe a standard incremental margin that, as Charlie mentioned, there is going to be a significant hit to that from the under-absorption as we work to bring the inventories levels back down, then we'll claw that back through various cost reduction actions, probably a little bit of positive impact on the material side as well.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. I know in the quarter you called out a provision for valuation reserves on used equipment. Could you maybe just touch on that potential dynamic next year and maybe just clarify exactly what that impact was in the quarter? And I apologize if I missed that earlier. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. I mean, just, I guess, first off, used equipment is something that we've been involved in. We take trades and have always taken trades. Just what I think what you've seen in the market, and you probably take a look at like the Ross (38:30) data or something like that, the used equipment values have come down a little bit. Some of that is just due to timing of when you take used equipment and when you move it out. But as we went through the quarter here, obviously we did see a need at the end of the quarter to make an adjustment there. Overall, it ended up being a several million dollar impact on the quarter.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. We'll get back in queue. Best of luck this quarter, guys. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Michael D. Conlon - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Good morning. This is Mike Conlon for Ann. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi.

Michael D. Conlon - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Can you just quickly confirm that the big increase in the defense backlog is all expected to ship within the 12-month period? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: When you say that, I guess I'll speak in terms of the total backlog. So I think it's ...

Michael D. Conlon - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Please. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: ...around $1.4 billion. As we exited September, approximately $1 billion of that was for sales in fiscal 2016.

Michael D. Conlon - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

And, I guess, as part of the defense outlook, can you touch on what – what the assumption is or that the outlook assumed that you get that international M-ATV contract in fiscal Q1 here or is there ....? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Correct. That's correct.

Michael D. Conlon - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thank you.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi. Good morning. I think, it behooves everybody if you can help us with just how back-half loaded this guidance is? On access, can you give us some sense of cadence? Are you expecting a quarter this year where access sales are up year-over-year? Are you expecting the last three quarters of the year to have double-digit margin? I'm just trying to make sure we all understand just how back-half loaded it is as we do our work and understand how the orders have to progress as we get into spring to hit these numbers? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. We're expecting our sales relative to prior year to be down in the first half of the year and to be flattish in the second half of the year in access equipment. So that's sort of the cadence there. In our defense business, it really starts ramping up in our second fiscal quarter relative to prior year. So first quarter is flattish up a little bit, and then it picks up substantially in Q2.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. So basically down – kind of down 25% first half, flat second half. And the margin – talking to just access, and the margin improvement as the year goes on, can you help us a little bit with that split? We're just trying to get a feel, are we talking mid single-digit access in the first quarter, get to 10%, 11% in 2Q, and then we get around 12%, 13% in the back half? Just trying to understand, again, how back-half loaded... Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're looking at marginal profitability in Q1, and then double-digit for the rest of the fiscal year, and it's really fixed cost absorption that's hitting us in the first quarter. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: With the low volume. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And lastly on that, the conversations you're having, the confidence in the order book improving not much to get the back half to flat. I mean obviously the fourth quarter created an easier comp, I understand. But to get the back half to flat, the drivers, is it a domestic major rental house comment? Is the conversations you're having on maybe Europe? I know you mentioned a quarter ago the comps are a little bit harder, but at least there is some encouraging trends in Europe. Where is the pressure points on this second half to be flat in the sense of the spring orders that you are hopeful for? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: First of all, you got to remember our second half of this year is pretty soft, all right. So...

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Right. And the comps... Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: ...to be flat isn't a heroic assumption, given that. But it's clear that when we do talk to our customer base across our national rental companies and our IRCs, we're looking at good volumes for 2016. I mean I know some people would like to project greater softness than what we're projecting, but I think we are actually on the more conservative end here than some of our competition. And part of it is I think we're on a fiscal year basis versus a calendar year basis. But overall the trends are positive. Certain customers are reluctant to talk on calls about exactly what they're going to do because obviously they have the opportunity to change their mind over time. But, what we're hearing for outlook is very much reported in our outlook that we're presenting today. And the overall metrics for housing and non-residential spending in the categories of construction that use our equipment are sound. We're also seeing, for example, in our front-discharge business, which is somewhat correlated, that customers are ordering early. That's a good thing. We should have a really good year in front-discharge next year. And that's another sign that housing and construction are going to be good next year.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And again, sorry if I missed it. The pressure point on the spring orders, it's not terribly different than your traditional mix. Is that what I should be thinking? This is not a conversation we're having on the independent channel or Europe that gives you confidence that spring orders pick up. Is it just a generic view of what you're hearing across the whole customer platform? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's confidence in the – in agreement discussions we're having with national rental companies today. It's confidence in the IRC conversations we're having today. In Europe, we're expecting to be flat to maybe even up a little bit in Europe next year. In terms of local currency, with the currency impact, it could be flat to down. But overall, those discussions are going quite well in Europe. So I think we've got a lot of positives here, and I don't think we should be overly concerned about another shoe to fall.

David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Analyst · Evercore ISI. Please go ahead with your question.

No. I appreciate the color. Thank you very much. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning, guys. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Pete. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Pete.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

In my understanding, I think you're implying on – in the sense that this initial M-ATV order, I think it's 275 vehicles or so roughly. And maybe they all don't deliver in the first quarter. I think that was the prior expectation, but maybe now you're thinking maybe half in the first quarter, half in the second quarter. Is that fair? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Slightly more than half in the first quarter and then the rest in the second quarter.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Got you. And then just on that order and on subsequent M-ATV orders on the Middle East. What's your guys expectation of the cash collection cycle on those, because we've seen some other companies has some difficulty in terms of prompt payments and so I'm just wondering what you guys expect? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Pete, it's certainly – the payment cadence is certainly different than we experienced with our U.S. customer. But we believe we have that factored into our free cash flow outlook for the year.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Is it less than 90 days? Is that a reasonable expectation or more than that? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think it's – history would say it depends on the contract basis, and on a customer to customer basis. So, again, I guess what I would say is it certainly is a longer payment term profile than we see with our U.S. customers.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst · Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thank you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Great. Thank you, and Charlie, best of luck in retirement. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Yeah. Wilson, just on the – just coming back to the international M-ATV award and kind of where that stands. Obviously, there has been some reports recently of some budget cuts amongst the largest Middle East weapons buyer, yet one of your Wisconsin brother and just half an hour ago noted that they were seeing some shifts in terms of the spending towards defense in the Middle East. So I'm just – I want to come back and get your – obviously this contract has been out in the horizon for a while. Kind of what gives you the confidence to go ahead and actually bake it into the guidance after I guess having you just been there recently? So, maybe just an update there, please? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Sure, Tim. It always helps to go, right, where you can sit with the customers and talk face-to-face, and we're reading and hearing all the same things that you just mentioned there. I can tell you that across the Middle East are the big concern for this new enemy that's developing. And there is not a lot of mechanization across the Middle East. So there is a priority right now for ground forces to use vehicles, and that's going to work well for us. I didn't hear any hesitancy in moving forward with the contract that we have that's currently in play. So it was a good – we had some good meetings while we were there. More importantly, we had some good meetings with new customers. And so the outlook for us in the Middle East is good, is positive, we feel good about this next contract. Obviously, we're going to stay tuned and watch it because, there are issues and as Dave mentioned,…

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And then, just Dave on the share count, can you – just where did the share count finish at year end? I'm trying to reconcile that the guidance for roughly 75 million shares and then your comment about buying back. I think you said roughly $150 million is baked into the guidance for this year? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, Tim. So we ended up that, call it right around $75.5 million at the end of September, and then in terms of the guidance what we said is, let's call it half of the anticipated free cash flow would be returned to shareholders in the form of repurchases and dividends, that would probably get you closer to and imply $100 million in a quarter of share repurchases in 2015 or 2016, excuse me – now some of that on a full year impact will depend on the cadence throughout the year and then we're also be a little bit offset by your typical share creep as it relates to options and other items.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thank you. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Can you guys hear me? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, we can.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

All right, great. My congratulations as well, Charlie. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

I wanted to maybe most of my questions have been answered, just a couple of big picture questions. Are you willing to sort of ballpark how many M-ATVs we expect to deliver in fiscal 2016? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Well, I guess, we'll do it this way. We got the order that we announced in August for 273. So, those we expect will deliver all in the year here. And with the expected order that we believe is forthcoming here shortly, we said more than half of that, more than a 1,000 would also be for sale in fiscal 2016.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And the remainder in 2017, I suppose? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yes.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. And then what else, I think you just alluded to this, Charlie, but you've talked in the past about some other potential orders, I think they weren't even bigger than what is talked about here so far. Where do we stand with numbers on that? How many more could potentially come across the tramp in 2016 or is it in 2016, or is it beyond, just how do you think about that? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, we continue to pursue actively a few thousand additional M-ATVs beyond this contract that we expect in Q1. No, we will not get them on 2016. They will be parceled out over 2016, 2017, perhaps even 2018. And, in fact this past quarter new opportunities came forward. So, it's really kind of a robust environment right now for the M-ATV to perform extremely well for multiple governments, particularly the U.S. government for a long period of time. It's highly survival, highly mobile, highly reliable, all the things that you want and it's getting quite a reputation.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just finally on JLTV, let's just assume you win the protest or they lose it more accurately, I suppose. What if any revenue might come in 2016 and then how do we think about sort of the ramp through the end of the decade? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Steve, it's a fairly small amount of revenue for fiscal 2016 and then you're going to start seeing delivery – vehicle deliveries late in 2016, but it's going to be a several year of ramp here as we get into before we – or I should say before we get full rate volume. The government's plan is for three years of low rate initial production. So, you're probably talking upwards of 2020 before we really start to ramp up.

Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. And Charlie, Wilson, congratulations. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thank you. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I'm wondering if you could talk about the outlook in the fire & emergency business, your orders, your book-to-bill has been really strong year-to-date and I think your incremental margin guidance, I guess looks to leave some upside considering what you delivered this quarter. Can you just flush out for us how the production rates are running and I guess why not a more aggressive top-line and margin target, given the bookings and the incremental margins that you folks posted especially in the back half? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Well, first of all, Jerry thanks for asking about our fire business. We don't get to talk a lot about our fire business. And we're very pleased with the progress they're making. We expected them to have a good quarter. The fourth quarter is normally one of their better quarters. They benefited for some good cost absorption with the higher volume. When I look at the business today, they really are getting organized around this complexity management initiative. I think the way I would answer your question is they have a great backlog, they're gaining share. We're going to take the rates up as we continue to get better. But the commitment we've made is we're going to take it up at a rate that will bring sustainable change and improvement to the business. We don't want to get ahead of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning. And Charlie, it's been a pleasure, and I'm sure Wilson will be able to handle it. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thank you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're confident in him, even though he's from Texas.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

Well, you can't have everything, right? I've got one question on the defense, a two-part. With the current budget hassle, the fight over the defense bill and what have you, with normal politics, has a lot of funding for some of your military projects hung up in that too. Is there any effect that we have to worry about in the defense budget, well, the craziness goes on? And then as far as the JLTV coming on, is there going to be some cost issues that you have to absorb? You would have some revenue when you start production, because we assume you'll win the protest pretty quickly. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We don't expect any issues for FY 2016 based upon any of the budget issues that are going on today. We basically have funding that's secure. Anything that could be an issue would be 2017 or later. But right now, the way things are moving forward, our funding of our programs really isn't in dispute between the House and the Senate and the President's budget and all that sort of stuff. Everything seems to be aligned for us. And your question on JLTV costs, we don't see any issues there. We fully expect that our competitor will lose the protest and we don't expect any kind of JLTV charges, if that's what you're getting at.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

No, I was just wondering whether – as you start to go into production ramp-up, there's costs associated with it without a revenue offset, whether that's part of in the analysis or do you get reimbursed for those costs as you begin to develop production? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Eli, we'll be reimbursed for a fair amount of that. There'll be probably a little bit of a drag here in the year, but that's baked into our guidance for the year. But it's not significant. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right. I mean they're contract line items that impact some of the start-up activities that we have that we can charge against.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

Yeah. And just on AWP, (1:01:50) another question, the 25% production cut in the first half or sales cut in the first half, is that equal between the two quarters or are we down like 30%, 35% in the first quarter and somewhat less in the second quarter? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's a little bit more in the first quarter than the second quarter.

Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst · Longbow. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay, all right. Thank you. Good luck, Charlie. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning. Thank you.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Just some more questions on access. You guys made it pretty clear that the first quarter will be particularly soft in line with some of the comments from the rental companies. But the biggest one is still technically forecasting flat capital spending in 2016 versus 2015. And I'm just wondering if we were to see capital spending cuts from them over the next three months to six months, do you think you're actually baking that into your outlook for 2016 or would that represent incremental downside? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Now you're asking us to be specific about a certain customer, okay? And we just can't do that, all right? But I think our assumption of 10% to 15% down, and when you follow that on where this year was down a little bit, that is over half of what we would expect in a recession. This is a pretty severe downturn that we've assumed. And for it to be much worse than this, we just don't see it.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Got it. Thanks, Charlie. And then maybe we could just move back over to concrete. You mentioned some differentiation between the front-discharge versus the rear. But just wondering more broadly, what do you think is behind the weakness that you are seeing there? Is it an oil and gas issue or just a broader industrial issue? Is municipal spending softening up or is it just the fleet gotten back to a – is the fleet just less old than it was two years ago? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think a lot of it is that, in terms of the softness that's been in the last couple months for like rear-discharge, is that they're just cautious. They read the news, they read what you guys write, and so they're going to be cautious and spend when they really, really need to. They all have the demand. Their fleets are old. They've cannibalized their fleets. They certainly see the opportunity. What they also know though with, for example, rear discharge is that they can wait, because they know we have the capacity. They know the industry has the capacity and that the lead times aren't as long, and they can wait to put in their orders, and they just want to see a little bit of the strength. Now, I can tell you, we're continuing to get decent orders in rear-discharge and front-discharge today. And we do expect that when the construction season develops that we're going to have a good year in concrete mixers. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: I'd just add there, Ross, Charlie is describing that the ready-mix customer has changed. The order patterns, they are more month-to-month based on what they're performing from a revenue and profit standpoint. But if you look at the fleet, to your question there, the mixer fleet in the U.S. is 3.5 years older than it was in 2007, right before the Great Recession. So that is an old fleet out there, and it's going to need to be replaced. So that, again, adds to some of our confidence that as construction gets better in the spring, we believe and our customers are saying the same in the ready-mix world is they're going to need fleet.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Thanks. And then just lastly on defense. In terms of your guidance for 2016, it basically implies like a $130 million step-up in EBIT in the segment. And just wondering, how far of the way do you get there with just the 275 or so M-ATVs plus the 1,000 plus that you've referenced? Do you still end up with a pretty sizable gap and need additional orders to get to that number, or any help there would be great? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, Ross. So again, with the backlog we had at September 30, about $1 billion of that would go towards or fill, call it, the $1.5 billion range that we're putting out for the next year – or for fiscal 2016. When you look at what's going to fill the gap between what's in backlog now and what we're estimating for full-year sales, a significant portion of that is the incremental M-ATV orders that we've been talking about. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: And aftermarket. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And aftermarket, yeah. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So the other increase for the business as a whole from 2015 to 2016, let's not forget that the FHTV contract restarted, and so that's in backlog. So that's also the incremental step-up for the segment.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Got it.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Ross. We appreciate it.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Good morning. Two quick questions. First of all, congratulations both Charlie and Wilson. My second – two other quick questions, clarifications. One, the free cash flow that you're talking about, Dave, for this year, the $350 million, obviously it's fantastic. Can you just tell me what your inventory assumptions are to get to that $350 million for the year? And then just my second question, and again sorry to get back to the defense, if I look at your revenue to backlog conversion for defense, as we look at the fourth quarter and then what the revenue is for the next year, it's generally 100% or better. If I look at your backlog conversion this year, it's only like 71%. I'm just wondering why the backlog conversion is lower this year relative to history. I know you said $1 billion of the backlog is for 2016. What's that other $400 million that's not converting and why? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. Let's answer that one, that's an easy one. That's our domestic programs, the orders that we have received for FHTV, FMTV et cetera that you've heard us talk about most recently in the June quarter. So we've got those orders coming in again, now that we've got the FHTV program or contract in place. And so it's just volume that the government is seeing knead out into fiscal 2017. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. All right. Thank you. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Okay. And then on the free cash flow, so if you think about it, what we said on the prepared remarks is a significant reduction in working capital, and specifically inventory of the access equipment segment. And that's going to be largely offset by the increase in working capital in defense, as we support the international M-ATV contracts. So if you think about 2015, the usage of cash, it was obviously an elevation or use of – or increase, I should say, of working capital. But in 2016, we will generate cash from working capital, but I kind of look at it as a big funding of the defense working capital need largely coming from reducing working capital at the access equipment segment. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): All righty. Thanks. I'll get back in queue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Good morning, guys. And Charlie, best of luck to you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

I had a quick one on your defense business. I think the margins here, 8.75%, and your guidance, awfully strong here based on what we saw last year, I guess I was curious, based on what you know today, what you've signed, what you're about to sign, is it a stretch to say that 2017 margins for that segment could be in the double-digits? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we're not ready to give estimates for next year or 2017.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

I know. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. It'd be a year early for us, but we do expect this segment to perform well for some time.

Michael David Shlisky - Seaport Global Securities LLC

Analyst · Seaport Global Securities. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay, great. That was the only question. Thanks so much.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Hi, guys. This is Tim (01:10:55) on for Seth. Just a question about clarity on the increase in inventory. Could you explain how much of that is due to access and how much is due to defense? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. If you look year-over-year, it's about 50% access related and 50% defense. And the defense component, what that is is largely building up with the international M-ATV order that we received late in the year, as well as the ramp back up of the FHTV program.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay, great. And just as a follow-up, it seems that you guys are a lot more confident in European access. So does that mean that the U.S. access will actually be down more than 10% to 15% that was guided? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think you're accurate there, right.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We are more confident in Europe.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead with your question.

Okay. Excellent. Thank you so much.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions in queue at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Charlie Szews for closing remarks. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Thank you for listening in today. It's been an honor to work for Oshkosh and our shareholders, and I'd appreciate your support. Oshkosh is a great company with leading brands and the opportunity to deliver outstanding results over the long term. I'll be cheering on the strong team that will lead Oshkosh going forward. Have a great day, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude our teleconference for today. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.