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Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 30, 2015

$149.56

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2015 Third Quarter Results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Pat Davidson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Davidson, you may now begin.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining for us. Earlier today, we published our third quarter 2015 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorporation.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call, and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks should follow, including answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. All references on this call to a quarter or a year are to our fiscal quarter or fiscal year unless stated otherwise. Our presenters today include Charlie Szews, Chief Executive Officer; Wilson Jones, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Dave Sagehorn, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, Charlie. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Pat, and good morning. Today, we announced third quarter earnings per share of a $1.13. These results did not meet our original or revised expectations. We also reduced our adjusted…

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Charlie. I'd like to remind everybody, please limit your questions to one plus a follow-up, and after the follow up, we ask you to get back in queue if you'd like to ask an additional question. Rob, let's please begin the question and answer period of this call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow. Please proceed with your questions.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Just a clarification, you talk about share repurchase, first can we talk about magnitude of share repurchase, or what you intend to do? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Eli, we've got about 2.9 million shares remaining on our current authorization. We expect that we will reacquire at least that amount and probably go back to the board for an update or refreshing of the authorization. But in the coming quarters, I guess I would say, we're probably looking $100 million or more over the next several quarters.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Thank you. Can you talk about the magnitude of the defense upturn that you're looking at in that? I guess we're talking about a few hundred million dollars in revenue, I assume. We're talking about mid-single digit operating margins, and I guess the real bottom line, we went from over $4 expectation to $3.75 to $4 now to the low $3's. How far – how much of the ground do you think you can make up in 2016 versus 2015 today, just driven by the – with the help of defense as you think about next year? I mean, can you get all the way back towards the $3.75 to $4, or is that still a stretch? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, Eli, you've got a lot of questions.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Well, you only gave me two. Give me a break. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No, I think, you had about five or six in there, but anyway let's get started. We're in advanced stages of negotiations for these international M-ATV contracts, all right? And the advanced stages of the approval process. The first few hundred vehicles should be executed in days, real short term here. The second contract for over 1,000 vehicles has been forwarded up the approval process. Given our knowledge of that process, and historical timeframes to flow through all those remaining steps, we'd expect a contract in the first quarter of fiscal 2016, but it could still happen in our Q4. I mean, so, this is a process that is not – that can move at different pace depending upon what's going on inside the dynamics in the country, but for purposes of our comments today and our outlook for 2016, we would assume that we're going to – we will execute a contract in the first quarter. When you combined these two contracts, we're talking meaningful number of M-ATVs in 2016, and many of these are extended wheelbase, they are variants with a lot more content on them. So these are relatively substantial vehicles. We've said for some time these are a good margin business, and we're not going to say a whole lot more than that.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

Are these a $0.5 million apiece business, machines? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Vehicles, yes. Absolutely.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

But I guess the real question is how much of the ground do you think you can make up from the double shortfall that we now have this year? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

I'm not looking for precision. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: And I'm not going to give you precision, but there – I want to give you the background that we do have real substantial contracts in queue. There are actually more beyond that that I mentioned in our prepared remarks that would hit 2017. Now, our view of 2016, there's still some items that are in flux, right? So we still haven't had – we don't have a definitive view on access equipment demand in 2016. It's early for our customers to talk about things like that. We've heard relative commentary, we can see replacement demand probably coming down because of 2009 and 2010 were lighter years in terms of industry purchases, all right. So we need to get a little bit better sense of that, but right now our view is it's 5% to 10% down in sales in access equipment segment. We're down 3% this year 5% to 10% next year. That feels in the ballpark, anything much more than that and we're talking recession, we're not hitting a recession next year, there is signals whatsoever. Construction demand is up, industry fundamentals are strong, rental company metrics are strong and all of that. All right, now the exact date that we sign and execute some of these international contracts also has a view of how many vehicles that we're going to get in 2016. So, I've got – until we get those contracts signed, I can't be extremely definitive. But pulling it together, our early view is, solid EPS growth would mean low double-digit EPS growth from 2015. Then on the high-end, our EPS could reach our Analyst Day EPS target for 2015 just a year late. So it's a broad range, I know that. We're going to narrow it in October, but it's a function of really executing a couple of contracts, knowing exactly how many vehicles we're going to get in 2016 and such. So, but overall, we feel very good about our ability to deliver EPS growth next year. We also have lots of initiatives inside our business to continue to take cost out of business. We've been saying for a long time that our biggest benefit of our O initiatives come in 2016 and that still is true. So, we think we can mitigate a lot of the sales decline in access equipment through cost reduction and then we've got lots of opportunities in defense to grow from there and of course we still have a good positive outlook for commercial and our fire & emergency segment. Our fire & emergency segment, for example has very significant backlog relative to prior year and this backlog extends out nine months maybe 10 months. It's probably longer lead times than we've had in years. And so, we see very nice backlog for that segment going forward as well.

Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much. I'll let somebody else go.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Eli.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse Group. Please go ahead with your questions. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, good morning. I guess just a clarification, you talked about the access inventory in the channel on the AWP side, I'm just wondering if you could quantify sort of what that number is, and I think you said you'll get it out between now and the beginning of 2016 is that sort of a first quarter 2016 event. And then, just broadly, one of your peers talked about the pricing environment, which seems rather competitive, again, just trying to get your – more color on what you're seeing in the market given the excess inventory. Thanks. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Let me get started and then both Dave and Wilson will provide some more color. First of all, when you look at our inventory build, you got to recognize that half of it relates to our defense business. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think the people are over projecting the impact of our inventory build in access equipment. And a lot of that inventory, we're going to be shipping here in our fourth fiscal quarter, not sure on when the revenue recognition is, we've said it's too close to call, so we conservatively said next year in terms of our earnings recognition, it could happen this year. All right. So that's a lot of the inventory right there. And then, on the other hand, we're going to have some substantial working capital requirements in defense through the multiple contracts that we're talking about here going forward as…

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your question.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. I'm giggling here to myself, because good inventory sounds like an oxymoron usually. Can we talk a little bit about the defense business? Could you tell us just will these products that are in the backlog – will these be milestone payments or will there be bill upon ship? Just want to know how the model run? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Mostly, Ann, still on international business, it's bill upon ship and in some instances, it's – when it rise in port is when we will get revenue recognition. So that starts the clock ticking from a payment standpoint.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And can you give us a little bit more color on both your commercial and your fire & emergency businesses going into 2016? What are the headwinds and the tailwinds that you are factoring into your outlook? David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: On the fire & emergency side, it's a good story. The municipal budgets are strengthening, housing is driving, municipal tax receipts. So we continue to see good activity. And I talked a little bit about how our fire apparatus company, Pierce had gain some share, some really good new product introductions that are going to kick in 2016 for them. So we see a positive outlook for them. Again, it's a story of continuing to focus internally and drive operational efficiencies and they continue to win in the marketplace like they've been doing. On the commercial side, the really high note for us there is refuse collection vehicles. That market is again following some of municipal indications like a Pierce or a fire business does. So we're seeing good activity around the refuse collection vehicles which is our higher margins in the segment. Mixers, we're bullish on that, but it's choppy. The ready mix customer is working through weather issues, CapEx issues. So we have a positive outlook for mixers, but we do caution it has been choppy.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I leave it there. Thank you. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you.

Patrick N. Davidson - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Pete Skibitski with Drexel Hamilton. Please go ahead with your question.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Yeah, I just wanted to understand the international M-ATV, the first shipment, I guess is my first question. So in guidance, are you basically expecting to ship and book 150 in this quarter and the last 150 in the first quarter or have all 300 slid to the first quarter? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So in our estimate range of $3 to $3.25, we have assumed that all of the units of this first contract shipping our first fiscal quarter. Having said that, it's not a done deal, it's too close to call and because it's too close to call, we took it out of our estimates in the fourth quarter, but it's still possible. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Pete, maybe just one clarification there. So the rev rec all in the first fiscal quarter, we actually expect that we're going to have units on the boat on the way yet this fiscal year.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Right. Okay. Okay. And then, just on your thoughts on access next year, I think some of those was touched upon, but how much are you assuming in terms of lower units versus lower pricing? And are you assuming AWPs and telehandlers decline at the same rate or is there – does one side face more headwind than the other? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Pricing in 2015 is relatively flattish for us, in terms of volumes, our basic assumption is that both categories booms, telehandlers are down a little bit, scissor is up. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, hopefully, Pete, we get back into this year, we're ending up with a lower percentage of booms than we anticipated, given the focus by customers in the first half of the year on telehandlers and as they brought their CapEx outlook down late in the year when we had anticipated a higher mix of booms late in the year. We believe that we will get back into a more normal balance next year as a lot of this engine emission driven mix change is behind us.

Peter John Skibitski - Drexel Hamilton LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Great. Thank you. Good morning. Just a follow-up again on access, can you comment a bit on just the kind of the order trends across the nationals or more or so just in terms the independent? I guess, I'm curious there, how they've been dealing with this kind of softer utilization and presumably some have less ability to kind of move their fleet around with the weakness in certain markets. So just curious, one order trends between the two major classes and then in that initial forecast for 2016, which I am sure there is quite bit of guess work forecasting next year and not even out of July, but just what if any kind of underlying shift is assumed in there in terms of the split between nationals and IRCs. Thank you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I would say that we're seeing a similar percentage. The last two years as the percentage of growth, IRCs have grown a little faster than the NRCs. This last quarter, we saw similar activity. IRCs continued to buy as did the NRCs. And I would say that the mix hasn't shifted a whole lot. And as you pointed out, it is early for us to really forecast 2016, and what that will look like from a percentage standpoint. We're starting those discussions now. Most of our customers are on a calendar year, and we'll have a little more definitive information for you in October.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

And just to clarify, that that 5% to 10% number, was that for the segment overall or for the U.S.? I thought I heard different things on that. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: For the segment overall. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: We talked about the international markets being similar to the U.S. into the 5% to 10% decline.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question. Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi. Good morning. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Good morning, Jerry. Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Charlie, it looks like there's been a bit of a shift in the military's focus on investment spending towards your categories. Can you just give us more color on the drivers? And when we look at your full-year guidance for defense, that implies fourth quarter run rate of revenue in the $250 million range at mid-single digit margins, so is that the run rate we should be thinking about for the base FHTV and FMTV business? And then, layer on whatever assumptions we make for M-ATV? Is that the framework at these levels? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're in the ballpark in terms of base business, and I wouldn't say that there's been a dramatic shift in the Department of Defense's view to buy more in terms of tactical wheeled vehicles. We just had an inordinately long time to renegotiate the FHTV contract and – in which caused the break in production. So the funding has been visible for some period of time. It's not like the funding levels increased. It's just we finally got the contract negotiated, we can start shipping again. We do see, though, sort of a base level of tactical vehicle spending continuing in North America or in the U.S. for some period of time. Our international M-ATV business growing, but frankly, we're getting a lot of opportunities for other product categories in defense as well globally. We're seeing…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mike Shlisky with Global Hunter. Please go ahead with your questions.

Michael David Shlisky - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Good morning, Mike.

Michael David Shlisky - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

Just wanted to touch on access. While we recognize that certainly we could see some production coming down from here, is there anything you can do on the cost side to kind of maybe minimize the margin downside, or have you kind of gone through that over the last two years and now it's just going to come down to up and down leverage on volume and pricing? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, as we've been saying all along that with these product launches, they're intended to also provide margin expansion. And our biggest benefits from these initiatives come in 2016. We've been saying that for at least a year – and but until we prove it to you in 2016, maybe you don't believe it, but it's our expectation that they're going to be high-performing products for customers as well as good-performing for our shareholders as well. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And it will also – we have some opportunities from the SG&A standpoint that we'll be taking a look at in terms of the remainder of the 2015. It takes a little bit of time to get those implemented. So we'll start to see the benefit of those in 2016.

Michael David Shlisky - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

Great. And then, maybe in the fire business as well, what sort of inning are you in in getting some of those cost efficiencies in the Pierce business, and is it fair to say that we'll see better margins there in 2016 versus 2015 and then 2017 versus 2016 as you get these kind of cost efficiencies done here? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yes, Mike, that's the plan. We're getting our operational efficiencies in place, and we've shown improvement the last few quarters and we plan to stay on that plan. If you remember back in 2009, that was a 10% OI business and we're certainly – got a path to get there. We haven't been definitive on the years, because we want to make sure everything we do today we can sustain long term, but that is the plan.

Michael David Shlisky - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

But there still is quite a bit of work to go there, there's some runway left here? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Oh, yes, yes.

Michael David Shlisky - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks, guys. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thank you. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Good morning, Ross.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hey, Charlie, I'm just trying to understand a little bit more why you're suggesting low double digit earnings growth for 2016, when clearly what's happened today wasn't foreseen a weeks ago. I mean, what kind of defense revenue and earnings growth are you suggesting we model for 2016 when you got a 5% to 10% decline in access? You're saying concrete mixers are slowing and inventories even if you take out the defense are still going to be up. It seems like 15%, 20% year-on-year. So, I just – I'm trying to understand a little bit more the magnitude of what you're saying we should put in for defense, because otherwise it just doesn't – I don't see how you get that type of earnings growth. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: We've been saying it's meaningful, it's significant, and that's what you should assume. That's what we're assuming, all right? I don't know, how many times I had to say that, but that is what our expectation. Now again, let's go back to access equipment. 5% to 10% sales decline, we've made prepared remarks that we expect we can mitigate a substantial piece of that through our O initiatives. So you don't have to recover it all, okay? Just some of it. And you look at hundreds of vehicles of M-ATVs, if you parse through all of our comments, it's pretty clear we're doing that and these are expensive units at decent margin, you can drive some really meaningful growth in earnings in our defense segment. And on top of that, the fact that we got commercial and fire & emergency, which we expect to continue to grow. You make the comment about the mixers orders, but we see that was much more weather-related, construction short-term. We do think that – and as you see the gross numbers, housing getting a little bit better, non-res getting a little bit better. We would expect that going into 2016 that will recover or come back again. Our overall year-to-date numbers and mixers are very solid and they will be for the year. We would expect that to continue into next year so that mixers would grow next year. Our refuse collection vehicle business is doing very well right now in a slowly improving market, but we've been gaining some significant market share with our new product launches and one of our biggest launches is coming up here with the Meridian as we start production of our new light weight front loader that we're taking a lot of orders already and we're not even starting production until January or February 2016. So, you'd expect that to be good. And there is upside even in the defense business. But again, it's early to quantify it too much. We need to have contracts in order and that's why we're being sort of broad range in our overall outlook.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got you. And then just one for Wilson maybe, Wilson, could just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in European access equipment, because that's been one of your strongest growers recently. Is that slow, is Europe slowing down as well and I think you mentioned something about the pricing being tougher in Europe, if I heard that correctly? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah, Ross, pricing has remained pretty tough in Europe, but the – what I was referencing in my prepared remarks, we had a couple of countries that really went pretty heavy into replacement this past year and we don't expect that to continue next year, but this is we believe will still be good, but just not as robust in a couple of countries that we saw in 2015.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got you. Thank you. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ted Grace of Susquehanna. Please go ahead with your question.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Good morning, guys. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi, Ted.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Wilson, I appreciated the comments on inventory within access equipment. I was wondering could you talk about channel inventory and kind of how we should think about the inventory that's sitting at the dealer and distribution level. Whether you – in dollar terms or months of sales and kind of how long you expect that side of the equation to take to kind of normalize? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Well, it's anecdotal for us. We don't have a metric that's shared with us. You hear some of the comments that are out there. What we're hearing is mostly ONG has been redeployed. So that's getting better. We are hearing they're not fighting to weather. So absorption has been needed. We believe this is happening pretty fast. I'll give you one reference point, our July is certainly on track with our revised estimates. We're hearing now that on rent is encouraging with rental customers in July. So the surplus that's out there seems to be being deployed pretty fast. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So just to be even more direct here, we – when we shift, I mean 90% plus of what we're selling certainly in North America is going to rental companies and it goes into the utilization rates right away and they're absorbing it very quickly in the pace their purchases that they can absorb it quickly. And as you read the commentary from similar larger rental companies, we'll see access equipment utilization rates remain pretty good. They were a little bit weak in May that caused us some – of course on orders in late May and June and that impacted us in our year, but they're back to strong levels and should support our purchase going forward. We have very little inventory and it's primarily in telehandlers that go in North America that goes to a dealer and could sit in their inventory and when the national rental companies buy equipment for retail, that's quick turn business for them as well and now like they're buying hundreds of units and sitting them on a lot. So we're not able to capture any of that data, but it's very clear that's almost a pass-through, they give us a – when they get a retail order, they give it to us and it goes out to the customer. We have a little bit more there when you grow globally in terms of – we do have dealers in certain countries, but it's pretty clear, when we go around the world that people aren't sitting on a lot of inventory deals.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And the second thing I was hoping to ask is just and more kind of a refresher on history, if you were to go back to the inflection in your aerials business in the U.S. and think about the mix of national rental companies versus the independents. Could you just remind us kind of like how those two paths have progressed and where you see the national rental companies and their CapEx cycle versus the IRCs? Just so, we can think about how that plays itself out over the next couple of years. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think it's been pretty normal. In the weakest times of the market, the NRCs are just a significant piece of the overall spend in the marketplace and the IRCs are relatively small. And as the cycle progresses, the IRCs start to pick up when their balance sheets are stronger and they can buy inventory. And, but we're still at a point where as the cycle progresses in 2016, 2017, and 2018, a lot of – most forecasters are still projecting pretty good residential, non-residential spending through those years, that you'd still see IRCs becoming a bigger piece of those market in each of those years. And that's what we would expect over time.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

And Charlie, in terms of what's embedded in your 2016 framework of down 5 to 10 in the U.S. for access equipment? Would it be fair to assume that NRCs are down more than that, and IRCs are down less or up? I mean, how would you frame those two groups next year? Because I think that's where a lot of people are trying to figure out - Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think they're very similar and we've had conversations with a lot of customers. We think we're in a sweet spot of where they're heading. But again, it's still a small sample size, right because they aren't that many talking and there are certainly factors that could move it in multiple different directions. If non-residential spending picks up at a faster pace, then we're going to be at the lower end of that range. And if it still stays low, we're probably at the higher end of that range. But again, for us to be down more than that, it really has to be a turn in the overall global economy and everybody ought to be putting the money into cash.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Good luck this quarter, guys. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Seth Weber with RBC. Please go ahead with your question.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Hey, good morning. Just one more on Europe access, Wilson is there any color around the countries that you're talking about, because when we look at the age of the European rental fleets, it's actually quite old. So I was surprised to hear the commentary about the moderating replacement demand. Can you just give us any color on which countries that you're seeing that specifically? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Yeah, Seth. I'll give you a little more color there. The UK had a really big year. UK was one of the slower countries in Europe to come back and it's always been a big market, so they had a – what we consider a past peak year. So we just don't know that they can sustain that this next year. The initial information we're receiving is still a little gray. So, it could, but we're anticipating that it may dial back to just a tad. And then, the Benelux was very strong this year, stronger than usual. And again, we're looking at – can these markets sustain those levels and those are the two that we're just not sure can do that next year.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then, when I look at your – the commercial business, to get to your margin target for this year, I mean the incremental margins in that business are not particularly heroic, are you still seeing some issues on the supply side there with the supply chain or – I mean what – why wouldn't the incremental margins start to be better there given the revenue growth that you're seeing? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Seth, I think we got a couple of things going on there. We talked a little bit about we are seeing more package units and that's when we sell the body that we manufacture, so that's really our value add – chassis, that's a third-party commercial chassis. I think we've talked in the past that we don't make a lot of money on the chassis, commercial chassis that we supply in those package units. I think the second thing is the continued investment in MOVE initiatives. As you recall, we launched a lot of the MOVE initiatives around the old cost optimization in the access equipment segment. We proved out some of the methodologies there, so to speak and have been subsequent to that rolling those out into the other segments. So, we're seeing commercial more and still in the investment mode from that standpoint.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And so, should that – should we expect incremental margins to be more typical next year, after you start to harvest some of those investments? Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: I think one of the wild cards is going to continue to be, what we see on a body only versus package mix. We do anticipate that we're going to continue to have some additional MOVE investments next year in that, that segment. So, still early as we've said here and we'll provide more color as we firm up our view in terms of what the market looks like and what the mix within that looks like for the October call.

Seth R. Weber - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much, guys. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel. Please go ahead with your questions. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hey guys, good morning. A quick question on the JLTV, is that the one that was submitted, is that still going to be a single sourced sort of a product where – kind of winner-take-all approach or has there been any mixing as far as technology platforms or anything of that nature? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's clearly going to be a single sourced and frankly the volumes aren't adequate to, to go a dual source. So, we're highly confident it will stay single source. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. And then, in terms of the mixers with that having kind of slowing down, if I remember correctly that is still pretty old fleet out there. Could you help us with kind of the age of the fleet and maybe where we are from prior peak? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Right now, Stan, we kind of estimate we're in that 5,000 range from a annual mixer market. We think it can go up – I'm sorry, I misspoke there, it's about 4,000 truck market right now. We expect that it will move up, it used to be in that 6,000 – in some years we saw 7,000, we don't know that they'll ever get back to that. But it's in that 4,000 unit range right now. And again 6,000 is what we call a normal. Stanley S. Elliott - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from the line of Brian Chan with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Brian L. Chan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi, how are you? So just a couple of questions on the defense segment of the business here. One is, you said the first contract that's coming out, you're expecting to sign in next couple of days that's for 150 units. But the one that's for sounds like thousands of units, is that as a near of a certainty as the first contract? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, the first contract is for a few hundred of which we would expect to ship 150 in our fourth fiscal quarter and revenue recognitions too close to call. It could be in fourth quarter, it could be in our first quarter. We put it in our first quarter to be conservative in the estimates that you saw today. The second contract is for over 1,000 units, all right. Then we have a few other contracts that are in progress, that are a couple of thousand or more that would fall behind that, all right? So, we got multiple stages here of contract. What was your question about the second one? I'm sorry, I lost it.

Brian L. Chan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Yeah, sorry. So, I guess what I meant by that is, like it sounds like this first contract for 150 or couple of hundred units is a near certainty, because it's going to be signed in the next couple of days. But are you as confident about the second contract, because obviously the one (1:03:23)? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, we've got a letter of credit on the first contract. I mean, we're just waiting for one more signature, all right? In terms of – and that's the first contract. For the second contract for 1,000 plus, we concluded negotiations, there is a contract that has been brought forward and it has a process. And this is next step of this process. Well, they are probably four steps or five steps that we actually go through from this point until we actually have a contract. And that can be as long as sometime mid in the first quarter of 2016 and the year can be compressed because of some more urgent needs in that region. So we can't be too definitively on it. But once it gets through this stage, I think we're highly confident that we're going to have a contract and that we're going to shipping units in 2016.

Brian L. Chan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Is that the same buyer between these two contracts or is it a different... Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We're not talking about who the customers are here, sorry, but that's privileged and our customer would prefer not to be mentioned. Wilson R. Jones - President & Chief Operating Officer: Customers. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Customers.

Brian L. Chan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Right. And then I just have one quick follow-up question if I could. So, you're saying that that the defense business will essentially drive earnings growth for next year. In that defense forecast that you guys have, are you guys essentially including any type of – some type of weighted probability of winning the JLTV even that's like on – I think the first year – first couple of years is on LRIP right? Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Right. We're not going to give probability, but we evaluated the leader going into EMD phase. We tested very well. We tested very well. We believe that we have a very competitive offering. We are giving the warfighter next generation mobility, very good survivability. It's really an awesome vehicle and you ought to see videos of it that you probably can see on our website. It's impressive. Having said that, we've been fortunate to win contracts or sometimes we lose them. We're not here to predict it. But we were – again, the leader going into this phase and tested well and we have a competitive offering. David M. Sagehorn - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: And it would not – if we're fortunate enough to win and again we think we've got a great offering. It would not have significant impact on our fiscal 2016 results. Just as you mentioned on the LRIP cadence we would start to see that more in 2017 and 2018 and really ramp up starting in 2019 for us.

Brian L. Chan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. All right. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I will turn the floor back to management for closing comments. Charles L. Szews - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Thank you all for your questions today and for your interest in Oshkosh Corporation. We expect our defense business to be an earnings catalyst for the company in 2016 and 2017 and we also see a nice uptick from commercial in our fire & emergency segment. So, we again believe we have a positive outlook going forward. Have a good day, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.