Sandeep Singh
Analyst · Eight Capital. Please go ahead
Thanks a lot, Fréd, and good morning everyone. It’s Sandeep Singh here. Look, hopefully what you’ve taken away from Fréd’s presentation and our Q3 results is that this was an excellent quarter. Records in terms of cash flow despite the fact that our operator’s assets were largely still revving up over the course of the quarter, post-COVID. The asset base is performing extremely well overall. As Fréd mentioned, production bounce back well with still further upside expected in Q4. I’ll also touch on that a little bit. We’ve talked about timing deliveries in the last quarter in our press release for instance CB, we didn’t get any ounces delivered to us in Q3. They’re certainly producing in Q3. So that was kind of the hangover of COVID where we didn’t get that impact in Q2, we got it in Q3. Island as well, the mine is doing extremely well as everyone I’m sure knows, but our ounces were down in Q2. That’s kind of behind us as well and looking forward to kind of getting over the hump on those types of issues. Malartic obviously our flagship assets, a good quarter, by every respect but also included some processing of low grade stockpiles as they look for increased flexibility until Barnett – the Barnett high-grade zone starts contributing, it did a little bit in Q3. We certainly hope that that will continue. And then Victoria is the large asset for us, ramping up this year, it’s still ramping up and deliveries are growing to us all the time. I’ll touch on that in a little while. I’m still looking at Slide 10 by the way, if you’re following along in the deck. And as Fréd mentioned, meeting our guidance that equates to about 16,000 to 18,000 ounces, just a touch above for the low to the high in terms of Q4, and we certainly think given the dynamics we just mentioned or I just mentioned we don’t see any of the assets will do what they do, but we feel pretty comfortable heading into the last quarter of the year. In terms of growth during the quarter, we spent about $67 million on royalty and stream growth in the quarter between the acquisition of the case portfolio, the $12.5 million and the San Antonio stream fund basically facilitating that transaction was delivered us to San Antonio stream. So that – between those two transactions, there is immediate growth on assets that we already own in that case portfolio like and that have big upside. And then the additional stream, we think has the potential for significant contribution in the near term as well. If you look at Slide 11, next two slides, I will touch on the important transaction that we announced post the end of the quarter. And I want to make sure everyone understands the impact on us. I’m sure everyone does understand the transaction structure, by now we’ve had a chance to talk to most of you about it. As Sean mentioned, it remains on track or the trading of ODV remains on track for early December. We’re just going through the last of the listing process now. And that bodes well. Again, I won’t go through the transaction particulars. I’m sure, they’re all well understood. In terms of the financing, I will say that it was a good result. And what’s been a choppy market generally speaking leading into the U.S. election, good demand, a good set of shareholders that Sean and team will take forward in Osisko Development, and significant interest in that company even though the structure was a little bit complex for some groups to be able to participate in. So, we think there is a good launch in store for us on the ODV side and some meaningful catalysts in the next six months that the team will be able to unlock value with. In terms of the – maybe I’ll touch on it because the preamp hopefully the question a little bit. The only real question we get left in OR perspective is on the retained ownership. Obviously, 88% in the hands of one entity is not a sustainable level. We are structured in such a way that we wanted and we want that retained upside as the ODV team moves the assets forward we will be diluted. We expect the team to move the assets forward quickly to meet those catalysts. And then as well as I’ve mentioned before, we look for opportunities to reduce as well. But the price there is a significant amount of value so we’re going to look to do that in a smarter way as possible. On Slide 12, I think it’s worth reemphasizing one more time. I think it’s a win for both sets of assets frankly. I think we’ve set up Osisko Development well as a strong portfolio, well funded, on its way to becoming an intermediate company solely with asset base in North America, winning production and a good mix of near-term production potential as well as the flagship assets. Obviously, the team we have the utmost confidence in terms of unlocking that value. On the OR side, I think accomplished quite a lot frankly, I mean it’s a lift – we got our shareholders a lift from what’s been invested into the asset base there, which is significant. We’ve crystallized the value of those development assets, they’re now off of our balance sheet, they’ll have a see-through value, they have one based on the financing, they’ll have one every day thereafter, which we think will be beneficial to our overall shareholders. We’ve reduced – or will be eliminating the spend in terms of the asset exposure in Q3, that was roughly $16 million on Cariboo so in keeping with previous quarters, when you flow that through, that’s almost – that’s about $0.10 a share to the bottom line. We’ve also reduced or will be reducing our G&A as part of the transaction. Essentially, the full team required to run both companies was in place and we’re just segmenting them between the two. And not last but not least, we secured and fashioned at least 20,000 ounces of GEOs for Osisko subject to unlocking value on those assets. But that’s a hugely significant chunk of growth that we got paid to take in the end. So a rough ride perhaps to get there, but ultimately happy with the end result and we certainly feel like we’ve set the company up for a significant rerate – the assets, the royalty portfolio that is in Osisko Royalties today deserves a better valuation and has pretty substantial growth profile that we don’t think we’re getting proper value for. So that’s our job going forward is make sure we can unlock that for the benefit of our shareholders. I think, we’ve done a lot of the heavy lifting and we’ll continue down that path. If you look at Slide 13, it’s the growth profile. I touched on it a little bit before. Essentially, the ability to more than double production organically with things that we’ve already bought and paid for, some of those contributing this year, some of those contributing next and a pipeline of assets that are coming on behind. So, we feel pretty comfortable in terms of where we sit currently and this provides us the ability to be disciplined in what certainly can feel like a bit of a heavy transaction market out there. We’ll look to pick our spots when we see value. If we don’t, we’ll sit on the sidelines given the dynamic I just mentioned. I’ll spend a little bit of time on Slide 14 and 15 talking about the Malartic underground given that it’s a huge catalyst for us we hope and we certainly expect over the course of the next coming months, not just for us but obviously our joint venture partners, Agnico and Yamana are doing a tremendous job with the asset. The open pit continues to deliver like clockwork. So, I’ll focus you on the underground. I’m sure all of you who follow those companies are aware of the underground work that was announced in Q2 in terms of ramping down the portal work that’s under way now almost complete and the two years’ worth of ramping into East Gouldie, Odyssey and East Malartic. In Q3, a lot of the discussion was around drilling update at East Gouldie, which should translate into a new resource earlier in the year, followed by a PA, which we – and I’m sure the market how we look forward to. The drill results were nothing short of a fantastic frankly, with widths and grades increasing. If you look at the bottom right here, you’ll also notice and the continuity has never really been an issue, but it continues to be reinforced. And I think it goes a long way toward adding confidence to the operators to push that asset forward including a potential shaft decision off the back of the PA in New Year. And if you look at the bottom right, as I was trying to say, East Gouldie and East Malartic dipping toward each other was certainly – the potential of those two converging at depths as well, open in – open at depth to help benefit that. So lot of good news from a Malartic perspective and Malartic underground perspective, and we look forward to that getting further advanced by our partners. If you look at Slide 15, just a little bit more on the exploration update. 12 rigs turning at East Gouldie, generated 38,000 meters of drilling in Q3, that takes us to about 77,000, 78,000 ounces – sorry meters, I think for the first nine months. And a similar kind of Q3, Q4 level of drilling. So intense drilling and certainly, we expect that to lead to a significant increase in resources by the time they update that in the New Year. As I mentioned, you’ll notice a snapshot of some of these results here. Nothing short of exceptional frankly, fantastic continuity, average widths if I remember correctly, north of 10, I think it’s 11 meters averaging greater than three grams per ton in the East Gouldie portion. So, this is going to be one of the core facets, one of the core catalysts for us. We’ve always felt this year that this was shaping up to be the best development project maybe in the sector or certainly one of, it has continued to trend that way. And our view is the more the operators do their work, the more they are comfortable talking about it earlier in the year, the better will be for all of us and shareholders. So, we look forward to that ongoing work. If you move to Slide 16, just other – some of the other producing assets to touch on a little bit, and then if I miss something, we can certainly pick it up in the Q&A. Eagle, I touched on earlier, ramping up – continues to ramp up well, I guess the ramp up, continues. If you follow Victoria, you would have heard us in bottlenecks on the processing, largely crushing side that are being addressed through a variety of optimization work. Importantly, I think the grade and the recovery if you listen to the operator reconciling quite well. So it’s just really a methodical march up in terms of tons being stacked and so we are quite confident that the team is doing the right things there, we’ll keep a close eye on it and look forward to that production growing, it’s growing to us all the time. And then from an exploration perspective, everyone has been focused on the production there as they should be, but we’re starting to see some really good stuff come out of Victoria on the exploration side, including most recently on the Raven target, a drill hole about 65 meters, just shy of three grams which was a large step out hole. So again, speaking to character and the potential of a large – a very large prospective land package. Mantos, again, a strong contributor in Q3 for us, performed quite well, even with all the challenges of COVID in South America, Chile, especially. So, we commend them for that. And in terms of the expansion, I think we say here mid-2021, there could be some small delays again COVID related but that pushed that into the second half of the year, but still overall we’re quite pleased with the updates we are seeing in terms of their expansion work and how little impact COVID has actually had on them. Eleonore, again it was a COVID impact in the quarter, slower rev up there. As I guess they’re being a little bit more cautious and lower tons mined, but certainly we expect them to continue to make progress on their being Newmont’s full potential program. So hopefully this is one that they can continue to improve and add ounces to us. On Slide 17, I touched on the assets being contributed through ODV to us. So, I’ll go through this relatively quickly. At Cariboo, look, it’s a significant scarce meaningful, whatever adjective you want to use. Resource, at Cariboo, there is an aggressive drill program under way and we expect that to continue under the ODV banner. Lots of exploration success over the course of the year that the team will be following up on to turn discoveries into resources, and a meaningful reserve update as well that will feed into feasibility study in mid-2021 and an ongoing path toward permitting. Recently IBA signed with The Key First Nation, The Lhtako Dene Nation, so significant investment from that perspective as well. And from what we can see, permitting is obviously a lot of hoops to jump through, but the team is doing a great job, doing just that. And on the San Antonio side, really great starter pack with a million ounces of high-grade 1.2 gram heap leach material, large land package, really untouched and kind of forgotten. Work to do there in terms of permitting, infill drilling, expansion drilling, studies, et cetera, but a great address and a great starter pack as I mentioned in Sonora with significant upside overall, and a lot of good near-term opportunities that Sean and team will be attacking. Slide 18, just highlights – maybe Slide 18 and 19 highlight some of our other assets, I won’t go through them all in detail. Windfall, Hermosa, Horne 5, significant contributors to growth, at Osisko mining, a sizable high-grade 5 million ounce resource. Continue to – the press releases was – had a pretty funny title more of the same, but that more of the same is some of the most exceptional drill results in this sector at present. So, we look forward to that continuing to add meaningful ounces as they work towards their own feasibility study in 2021. And at Falco and Horne 5, a very important announcement, their transaction with Glencore where they provided a convertible debenture structure and offtake, which they always had the right to. And frankly got some skin on the game and as they continue to work towards the last technical diligence they’re doing and the team at Falco have done a phenomenal job getting the relationship with Glencore to the point where it is. So, we look forward to them finishing that exercise over the next short while. And then again, just to touch on Horne 5 as well, which is a stream that we fund based on success but can be a meaningful contributor depending on your gold and silver prices circa 20,000 ounces of GEOs right there. And so the recent announcements are positive one, toward that our stream, as I said it’s funded on success, but if you just look at the Monarch transaction recently congrats to those folks. But I think circa $150 million in the neighborhood, we certainly think that’s a very positive read through on value for 6 million ounces of reserves and 10 million ounces of overall gold equivalent resources. On Slide 19, again other examples of how the portfolio is doing well. I touched on Island, obviously, a ton of success there for the Alamos folks in terms of that mine in terms of production and cash flow, but also on the exploration side. And some of that drilling, especially over to the East now drifting over to our higher grade royalty portion. So, we look forward to their continued work toward expansion and obviously continued exploration success. Seabee, I touched on earlier, deliveries have restarted for us in October. So that’s behind us and we look forward to their catching up to a great high grade mine, an asset for us in Canada. Gibraltar and the Taseko folks, I think the upside of that is they did quite well through COVID, managed that exceptionally well despite a large – such a large workforce. They kept cost down and brought costs down frankly and now the copper price in a much more supportive place. So, I think that’s a good new story. We obviously improved their stream earlier in the year to assist and frankly opportunistically for us. And on Sasa, again really important contributor on the silver side, obviously, unfortunately there was a tailings issue, a tailings leak during the quarter, those remediation plans seem to have gone well and have been well accepted. They’re still finishing that exercise and hopefully that gets sorted out soon, in the meantime, production is back at full capacity. So hopefully that issue gets resolved and is behind them. And then I guess ending on Slide 20, I will just reemphasize again that we think it’s frankly an excellent quarter coming out of COVID and sets us up for a strong finish to the year. And at current gold prices even with half day factored in, we’re still making money hand over fist and hence beat the records that we saw from the cap revenue and more importantly cash flow perspective. For the course of Q3, so hopefully we can keep that trend going. There certainly are a lot of strong catalysts across the asset base over the next three, six, 12 months particularly timeframe. And what we think is fairly sector-leading organic growth that we should start to chip away at. In the process, we think we’ve simplified the story of this quarter. And as we get out and tell that story, we certainly expect to undo the meaningful trading discount that we still think our assets deserve a better a lot. So with that, I will conclude and open up for any questions you may have for myself, Fréd and Sean.