William Charles Erbey
Analyst · JAM
Thank you, John. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. This morning, I would like to cover 4 areas in my prepared remarks. First, I will discuss our earnings; second, I will review Ocwen's quality of earnings and sustainable cash generation capability; third, I will share our thoughts on future growth, particularly in adjacent markets; and finally, I will describe our stock repurchase program. After my comments, Ron will provide an update on our operations including the acquisition, integration and cost reduction plans. And finally, John will provide additional detail on our liquidity position and third quarter normalized results. Slide 4 shows highlights of our third quarter earnings. We had record revenues despite having little benefit from the OneWest transaction. This quarter's earnings, however, were not as strong as we would've liked, primarily due to, one, an unanticipated delay in the closing of our OneWest transaction that created a shortfall versus our expectations. The good news is that our existing servicing portfolio is generating revenues in excess of our expectations. Two, costs well above our historical, as well as our long-term goals, as we are taking a cautious approach to transitioning the ResCap loans to the real servicing platform. Given the current environment, we retained redundant staffing on both servicing platforms in order that the transfer went smoothly. Additionally, we were fully staffed for the OneWest transaction months before the transfers occurred -- or are occurring. And three, to a lesser extent, underperformance in lending. With respect to the delays in revenues, that is largely resolved now that most of the remaining OneWest loans will transfer tomorrow. To put the delay in perspective, note that OneWest when fully boarded would generate about $75 million in quarterly revenue. The portion that did not board would've contributed about 2/3 of that amount or $50 million. Regarding costs, we've lots of work to do, but we have plans in place to get us where we need to be. Once ResCap and OneWest are boarded on real servicing, we expect to return to our historical margins. And as Ron will discuss later, we still believe that there is reasonable upside in our lending earnings in upcoming quarters. Most importantly, we do not expect these short-term issues to impact our stabilized returns or longer-term cash generation capability. As noted on Slide 4, we saw a meaningful decline in prepayment rates across our portfolio in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. These slower prepayments bode well for long-term servicing earnings and cash flow. The left-hand bar on Slide 5 shows the baseline forecast of free cash flow we expect to generate over the next 10 years, with no additional growth in our portfolio. Our baseline assumptions for prepayment rates assume the lower interest rates that existed at the time we priced the deals. So baseline average prepayments are at 16.7%. Delinquency reduction expectations are based on assumptions for low economic growth and a weak housing market comparable to what we experienced from 2010 through 2012. Even under these assumptions, we believe our portfolio can produce approximately $8.4 billion in free cash flow over the next 10 years. Note that this 10-year cash flow forecast does not capture the long tail of cash flow generation, as we still expect to be generating $300 million of cash flow in the 10th year. Again, this baseline forecast assumes 0 new acquisitions and simply a 5% return on reinvested cash. The middle bar on Slide 5 shows cash flow in a scenario where economic recovery drives down delinquencies by 50% by the end of 2014. In this scenario, we also assume both lower default-driven prepayments and higher market interest rates that combine to reduce CPR by 50%. This is starting to look more like a potential baseline scenario for the future. The impact of these changes would increase 10-year cash flow, largely from higher earnings, by 27% to $10.7 billion. And finally, assuming we could reinvest cash at a 15% return, which is still below the returns we've been able to generate in the last 3 years, cash flow generation jumps by another 25% to $13.4 billion, with more than $900 million of cash flow generated in year 10, suggesting a far more significant tail. Going back to current cash generation, Slide 6 shows our adjusted cash flow from operations. Because we sold most of Ocwen's advances at the beginning of the quarter to HLSS, adjusted operating cash flow is down from the prior quarters. On the other hand, we accelerated cash flow through the sale to enable us to close new business without adding equity. As you can see, Ocwen continues to generate cash flow substantially in excess of earnings, which demonstrates the high quality of our earnings. Many of our peers in the mortgage industry generate cash flows often negative, that trail rather than lead earnings. And as we have said many times, we believe our conservative accounting policies account for much of this difference. Slide 7 of our presentation details some of the specific accounting differences between Ocwen and its peers. First, with the exception of a small percentage, Ocwen carries its MSRs at lower of cost or market, or LOCOM, rather than at fair market value. As a result, Ocwen will never show an earnings write-up on about 95% of the owned MSR portfolio. Instead, we amortize these MSRs. Actually, we've been amortizing our nonprime MSRs at a rate of 18%, which is well above actual CPRs of 12% to 15%, creating excess value not shown in our earnings or on our balance sheet. Note that fair value accounting can also generate large changes in value simply by changing the model assumptions used for valuation. For example, if we had lowered the discount rate by 2.5% and loss assumptions by 7% on our credit-sensitive portfolio, we would've generated over $100 million of additional earnings in the third quarter, had we been on fair market accounting and made such adjustments to a valuation model. Second, Ocwen only recognizes servicing fees as collected rather than accruing delinquent servicing fees. At the end of the second quarter of 2013, Ocwen had over $500 million in delinquent servicing fees that, unlike many other servicers, have not been recognized as revenue and, therefore, are not on our balance sheet. Third, with respect to acquired advances, we believe our accounting policies are conservative in that they do not pull earnings forward. For example, when we purchase advances at a discount, say at 95% of face value, we do not book the discount into earnings as those advances are collected and then put new advances on the books at 100% of face value. Rather to the extent we acquire advances at a discount, we amortize the earnings over the life of the MSRs. For all of these reasons, our actual cash flow has consistently exceeded earnings. And over time, deferred earnings should appear as net income. Moreover, Ocwen's debt-to-equity level is overstated relative to peers that mark MSRs to market, record deferred servicing fees and recognize advance recoveries. I'll discuss more on this later regarding our corporate leverage. Now let's turn to our current outlook on growth. We continue to see a sizable pipeline of potential opportunities with a near-term pipeline of about $400 billion. We expect resolution on at least 25% of this pipeline by year-end. Note that the actual volume of deals we are pursuing is much larger. Also, note that many deals that we have won never made it into our quarterly pipeline estimate because they evolved very rapidly. Moreover, we continue to believe the overall size of the opportunity is at least $1 trillion over the next 2 to 3 years, including both large and small transactions. We continue to see strong indications that large and regional banks are accelerating plans to reposition their mortgage servicing portfolios, shed legacy assets, and sell off or subservice noncore servicing assets. Also, as we have seen in the past, smaller subscale specialty servicers may view a sale and exit as their highest return alternative, especially given the implementation of new servicing rules by the CFPB starting in 2014, which will likely increase fixed costs for many smaller servicers. On previous calls, we've covered in more detail how an improving economy and the reemergence of a private mortgage market would generate additional potential long-term growth. While this remains true in our view, on this call instead, I would like to discuss opportunities for Ocwen in adjacent lending markets. For obvious reasons, I cannot provide specifics about the handful of industries we're evaluating. I can say that we're focused on financial services, where we believe we can create a competitive advantage through the application of our core strengths, including innovative use of technology, low-cost operations and development of efficient funding vehicles that involve limited prepayment and interest rate risk. We've been actively evaluating investments for over a year and have elected not to pursue some interesting opportunities because we did not believe that they -- we could achieve our hurdle rate of return on investment due to price or other factors. We will continue to be measured in our approach, but we would expect to make an announcement in the next 12 to 14 months. Discussing returns on equity provides a good segue to my last topic on Ocwen's plans to more efficiently manage our balance sheet and generate higher returns on equity. As you can see on Slide 8, we have been increasing our returns on equity since the end of 2011. Our ability to continue to grow assets and earnings capacity without substantial dilution to our shareholders is an important component of how we create shareholder value. We have closed 3 very large transactions in a period of less than 12 months, and yet we have only issued a small amount of new equity as part of the Homeward purchase because the seller wanted to invest with us, not because we needed additional equity. Our balance sheet strength and relatively low leverage, combined with our substantial cash flow, means that we can both fund substantial growth and repurchase stock to maximize returns on equity. As we have mentioned previously, Ocwen is substantially under-levered, as shown on Slide 9. As you can see on the chart, our debt to tangible net worth is far below our public peers. Note however, that for accounting reasons I previously discussed, our tangible net worth is understated. If we adjust our net worth to account for just 2 things, the fair value of our MSRs and for deferred servicing fees, the GAAP and leverage becomes even more substantial. In addition, our stronger cash flow provides greater interest coverage ratios as well. To provide a picture of how our conservative accounting policies overstate our actual leverage, let me refer you to Slide 10. As of September 30, 2013, the book value of our MSRs was about $1.8 billion. If we were to mark our MSRs to market, as our peers do, the carrying value of our MSR is based on third-party broker marks, would increase by $685 million. This would all show up as earnings and increased equity on our balance sheet. By the way, this market valuation also understates the value to Ocwen, as the fair market value is estimated using average industry cost to service that are more than 3x higher than Ocwen's cost on nonperforming loans. If we were to use our actual servicing cost, ignoring our resolution performance advantage, our MSR value would be another $863 million higher. Note that we did not use this last adjustment for analysis on the prior slide. Nevertheless, there was almost $1.5 billion of value not currently being reflected in the book value of our MSRs. This excess value not only provides additional opportunity for leverage, but also provides potential access to additional cash through asset sales that increase overall returns to Ocwen's shareholders. Ocwen has already generated almost $2 billion of investment capital from sales of advances and rights to nonprime MSRs to HLSS. We have also been making progress on our strategy to lay off the risk and reduce the cost associated with funding prime MSRs, where most of the excess value resides. We recently completed the sale of $2.5 billion in prime MSRs, while taking back a subservicing contract. This transaction generated total net proceeds of $35 million and a gain on sale profit of $5.2 million, excluding the benefit of the subservicing agreement. This gain on sale earnings will be deferred over the estimated life of the subservicing agreements or just under 9 years. Ocwen continues to make progress on its structure that we believe will provide them even more efficient mechanism to distribute prime IR risk in selling the MSRs and keeping the subservicing. We hope to have more to announce before year end. In any case, when we fully monetize the prime MSR portfolio, it will add significantly to our potential liquidity and substantially lower our prepayment exposure. For all these reasons, we believe Ocwen has substantial access to liquidity that we can use to fund growth and increase value to shareholders. We intend to deploy excess liquidity in the following order of priority: first, to support the growth of our core servicing business; second, to expand into adjacent or complementary businesses that meet our return on capital requirements and where we can develop a competitive advantage utilizing our core strengths; and third, repurchase shares. With regard to share repurchases, we are pleased that the Board of Directors has authorized a $500 million stock repurchase program. This program may be amended at any time and may utilize both market and privately negotiated transactions. The $500 million does not include repurchase of any stock issued as a result of conversion of our Series A perpetual convertible preferred stock. As previously announced in late September, we completed the purchase of over 3 million shares of converted preferred shares at a price of $50.19. We view this repurchase agreement as consistent with our overall approach to optimize capital management. It reduced future preferred stock dividend payments and bought back stock at a level we deem advantageous to shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Ron to talk more about our commitment to quality service, operational and segment level performance and cost management initiatives. Ron?