Doug Shulman
Analyst · Barclays.
Yes, just a reminder, we had a playbook for a severe 2008/2009 kind of recession. And we made what we called a "no regrets move" in March, just to see how this all played out and did a full pullback and assumed that loans would have 1.6, 1.7 times their normal loss, on average with what Micah just referred to. As from March till now, we continue to look at our data. And we look at it on a very granular basis by state and by industry. And we looked at unemployment rate, we looked at our actual delinquency rate and trends, we looked at use of borrowers' assistance trends, and then a host of other macro data, housing starts, consumer sentiment, et cetera. And so we've very surgically adjusted our underwriting thing. And we took some of those constraints down because, as you've seen, we haven't experienced severe losses, the combination of decreased spending and boosted government stimulus has allowed our consumer to stay strong together with some of the actions we took in the early days, like helping them with paid deferments and those kinds of things. And so we will make very surgical changes, we look at this, we have a team looking at it daily, I spend time with the team weekly. And the combination of state and industry adjustments, together with, are lots of other data points we have from these consumers, having done this for a 100 years, and having booked 15 million customers, over the last 10 years, we've got a lot of data to look at. At this point, what we've done is for lower risk and lower geography, segments of our borrowers, we've decreased the loss assumptions. And so it's very dynamic depending on what government stimulus looks like, and how the economy opens, we're still not back to assuming pre-pandemic stress on our credit, but we've definitely moved in that direction. And at some point this year, we anticipate we'll be back to that.