Corning Painter
Analyst · Barclays. Please proceed with your questions
Thank you, Diana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2018 earnings conference call. We appreciate your time. Before starting with today’s agenda, shown on Slide 3, I would like to first introduce myself formally to everyone listening who I have not yet met and give some background as to why I decided to join Orion Engineered Carbons. Then, I will discuss my vision for Orion and opportunities to build on our prior successes before getting into our third quarter performance. Our CFO, Charles Herlinger, will then provide detail on our financial results and discuss guidance for the full year 2018. After that, I will come back and share some closing thoughts. Then, we will be happy to take your questions. I’m extremely excited to join the Orion team. Like many of our investors, I chose Orion because it is a company on the move, has a clear strategy and I saw a substantial value creation opportunity here. This has been a seamless transition with Jack Clem joining the Board and continuing to play an important role in the strategic vision of the company. Orion’s strategy focuses on the Specialty and high margin technical grades of Carbon Black. We have manufactured these materials and placed them in the demanding high-value markets. Say it another way, Carbon Black is our core product. We are experts at making it and we aim to sell it at the optimal combination of best price points and volumes possible. It’s a simple and effective strategy. Jack, Charles and the team have done a great job advancing this strategy but I am thrilled to see the amount of runway that remains in front of us. I believe there remains untapped market opportunities and potential in a number of different areas, including the addition of new high-value applications for Specialty Carbon Black, going deeper in geographic markets where we already operate and by expanding in new markets or markets where we’ve yet to fully develop the beachheads that have been established. Please turn to Slide 4. The acquisition we announced yesterday of the Acetylene Carbon Black manufacturer known as SN2A from LyondellBasell Industries is a great example of incremental benefits to come from manning a new application and material to our Specialty portfolio. Acetylene Carbon Black is an ultra-pure highly electrically and thermally conductive premium specialty material. It is used in several applications but our strategic intent is to use it to enter the lithium-ion battery segment. For a little more than $30 million, we immediately got a world-class, well established manufacturing plant that would have cost a similar amount to build and we got a skilled workforce. The plant is already operating at a good capacity utilization but with upside for additional volumes. SN2A has an excellent track record of operational and technological successes, and we are very excited about SN2A, the lithium-ion battery opportunities and other highly conductive applications make accessible with this acquisition. I think there can be confusion regarding the role of Carbon Black in batteries, so let me further explain the market dynamics and opportunity this transaction presents to OEC. There are three primary battery segments in the market. The first segment is DryCELL technology which SN2A supplies with Acetylene Carbon Black today. The second segment is lead-acid and advanced lead-acid batteries which we supply with Specialty Carbon Black. The third segment is lithium-ion batteries which are an exciting opportunity. Lithium-ion batteries are used in increasingly broad set of applications, including, of course, in transportation and mobility where we see a big opportunity in the future. As is the case with many early-stage Specialty Chemicals, Carbon Black for these batteries is a relatively small niche market today, but we expect it to grow rapidly. Beyond that, there are other markets where this premium material can enhance our customers’ products. In terms of going deeper in geographic markets, our Specialty business in North America has yet to reach its potential in terms of penetration and margins. By investing further in technical sales and support personnel and potentially building up customer technology support in the U.S., as we have done in other regions in the past, I believe we can drive both operational and financial improvements. We will take the learnings and infrastructure that have helped drive our Specialty business in these other regions and now also focus and implement them in the U.S. There are also regions where we have been recently active but remaining small relative to the market demand with China being the most significant opportunity. Today, while we are a major importer of premium products into China, we produce only locally about 75 kilotons per year of Carbon Black in the roughly 5,000 kiloton per year market. The China Specialty market, powered in part by environmental regulations, continues to grow rapidly. Based with this opportunity, we need to maintain and even grow our share by adding capacity locally. We will be careful and consider modest investments to ensure we remain a viable player in China. It is my view that a high return investment in Specialty and high-end Rubber Black in the range of 100 to 150 kilotons per year will be easily digestible and provide an excellent opportunity for Orion. After sometime in the lead role, I would like to share some observations since joining the company. I have been impressed with the management team, their knowledge of this industry, commitment to excellence and drive. I have been impressed with our knowledge of customer applications and ability to support them. However, I do see an opportunity to build this out more consistently in key markets. Having visited half of our plants, I have seen firsthand that Carbon Black manufacturing is a harsh process involving high temperatures and a corrosive tail gas. I’ve been very impressed with our plant operating teams who run these plants. There is an opportunity to invest in our plants to support our customers and ensure we are positioned for growth. Going forward, I would anticipate implementing a single-digit million increase in plant maintenance CapEx which would pay off and improve the liability, quality and efficiency. Ideally, these investments can be combined with debottlenecking. After safety, capital allocation is one of the most important responsibilities of a CEO, so I would like to speak to this in more detail. Our priorities are outlined on Slide 5. They are returning value to our shareholders via dividends. Orion has a strong record of a solid and stable dividend and there is no change to our earlier stated position on the strategic use of cash. Maintaining our facilities and complying with environmental standards, investing in growth through targeted expansions, mergers and acquisitions with bolt-on acquisitions like SN2A being an excellent example, finding high-value Carbon Black applications to enter strategic high growth markets, share buybacks and maintaining our targeted debt ratio of 2x to 2.5x EBITDA. There is a time and a place for buybacks when utilized effectively. I am very pleased that we have been able to take advantage of the recent volatility to buy back shares at what is clearly a bargain price not reflective of Orion’s value. I have fully supported this and I am pleased that we have doubled our capacity of buybacks to $40 million. Please turn to Slide 6. Orion has covered a lot of ground so far in 2018. We have advanced or accomplished each of the items on this slide and are looking to close the year on a strong note. I would like to thank the entire Orion team for their hard work and dedication to achieve these milestones, and I would particularly like to thank Jack Clem for his leadership to Orion and assistance to me. Now, turning to slides 7 and 8, I will discuss our third quarter performance. I am pleased that Orion reported a strong quarter. Overall, despite lower year-on-year volumes due to closing a facility in Korea, we achieved double-digit growth in our key operating metrics. Adjusted EBITDA grew 13.2% to $73 million. Earnings per share were up $0.40 and adjusted earnings rose to $0.51 from $0.38 in the third quarter last year. These strong results were seen across the entire Rubber segment, which delivered a historic quarter due to solid execution and stronger spot pricing supported by a robust environment. Excluding the impact of the closure, Rubber volumes increased by 2.7% reflecting a strong demand environment in all regions. Total volumes were down by 2.3% mainly due to the Korean closure which was targeted at improving operational efficiency and eliminating less profitable rubber grades. As good as these results were, I expect 2019 to be even better. Pricing negotiations for 2019 are essentially complete and will deliver strong pricing gains despite the fact that a rubber customer is covered by a multiyear contract that will not reset until 2020. Our outlook for 2020 pricing is even more robust. We have elected not to lock in 2020 at 2019 prices with customers because we believe the fundamentals will continue to improve. Our rationale can be seen in the market. Taking the U.S. as a good example, Carbon Black prices in the U.S. have been below reinvestment levels for many years and remains so today. Reinvestment prices have increased even more as we all now saw enhanced environmental controls. We believe prices have to rise substantially further before new capacity is brought on. We don’t think imports will change this picture. Imports have not been a significant factor in the past due to the quantities required and logistical costs. We don’t see that changing. Given these dynamics, we believe the pricing environment will be strong for several years and do not expect there will be a rush to add new capacity. We see strong demand in the rubber market buoyed by the large replacement tire market. Despite any parts of weakness in regions like China, capacity remains constrained and we will likely be sold out on many production lines in 2019. Profitability in our Specialty segment was in line with our expectations as the rise in oil costs experienced this summer moved through our P&L and brought per ton profits more towards equilibrium after an exceptionally high second quarter result. We have seen a slight decline in Specialty volumes in Asia which we believe is a mix of customers adjusting their inventories and to some degree production rates in response to recent trade-related events. We also saw some slowing in engineered plastics demand in Europe, although other segments such as polymer pipe and wire and cable demand remains solid worldwide. We are pleased with the performance in the first nine months of this year. We are doing a good job of taking advantage of the global economic conditions and favorable supply/demand dynamics, while devoting more capacity to higher margin products. Moving to Slide 9. Let me comment further on our Specialty business. The Specialty business performed as expected as revenue grew 7.3% to $134.2 million reflecting the pass-through of higher feedstock costs to customers and base price increases, partially offset by lower volumes, production mix and foreign exchange rate translation effects. Gross profit per ton was $745, down $38 per ton or 4.8% from prior year. As I said earlier, Specialty volumes declined reflecting we believe a mix of inventory destocking and to some degree customer production rates. We also prioritized high margin Rubber Carbon Black versus lower margin more competitive Specialty volumes in our production slate in certain regions. Slide 10 gives more details on the record third quarter results for our Rubber business. Overall, rubber volume was down year-over-year by 2.1% reflecting the plant closure in South Korea that we mentioned earlier. Excluding this, they were up 2.7%. Gross profit per ton grew 44.9% due to mix and base price increases, the timing between quarters of pass-through of feedstock costs and increased cogeneration income. This gross profit movement flowed through to a 63% increase in adjusted EBITDA per ton. Clearly, our Rubber Carbon Black business is performing well. Fundamentally, manufacturing capacity for tires and rubber mechanical goods has been growing more rapidly than Carbon Black capacity. And the implication of this is playing out in the marketplace. The U.S., European and Brazilian Rubber Black markets are strong. What happens in the China automobile market is less important to us given our footprint and mix of products there. Also, keep in mind that replacement tires provides stability since they account for more than 70% of tire market demand. Slide 11 reflects our view of the impact of IMO 2020 on high and low sulfur heavy fuel oils. It is our view that the 0.5% sulfur specification will be implemented on schedule in March 2020. In summary, there will almost certainly be a higher demand for low sulfur fuels driving up the cost of this material and having the opposite effect on higher sulfur fuels. We believe all Carbon Black manufacturers in regions that use petroleum-based feedstocks will see these changes. We are positioning our contracts to pass through most of this impact. That being said, we will strive to create increased value with this disruption. Slide 12 summarizes our view of world markets. In the interest of time, I’m not going to read through this slide for you. The key point is, is that the healthy supply/demand dynamic created favorable conditions for contract negotiations for 2019 and beyond. The contracts are well advanced in the process as compared to previous years, and we continue to remain optimistic about the favorable supply/demand environment in our key metrics. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Charles who will provide more details about our financial results.