Leonard Tannenbaum
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Thank you, Stacey. Welcome to the 2012 lending environment. Unless Republicans win the Presidency and control both chambers of Congress, we believe taxes will increase next year. As the odds change on the outcome of the election during the year, we expect it to have a substantial effect on M&A activity. As the tax increase that will occur next year from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extra tax from ObamaCare may incentivize owners of businesses to accelerate any sales plans they have in the next few years for 2012.
The supply and demand equations will be further complicated by the exploration of the reinvestment period on many middle market CLOs and the refinancing wall of CLOs that is approaching. We are also seeing the beginnings of BASEL III taking effect as the big U.S. banks begin to reduce lending in cooperation for the adherence to the these standards.
Lastly we believe the massive deleveraging of Europe and the need to raise hundreds of billions of dollars in equity to support the fragile banking system there will also contribute to the reduction in worldwide liquidity. So what is the offset to these amounts? Quantitative easing of course. QE is the new fad, as we even saw this morning, as Europe increased their QE by $50 billion this morning.
And we expect that everyone may participate in the party. How this offsets and drives capital flows, however, is very hard to predict. What we can do at Fifth Street is to optimize the results for our shareholders, is to pay very close attention to what our lending partners are doing, what we are seeing in the market and, like in the years past, make sure that we have the capacity and deal flow to quickly adjust to the change in capital flow cycles.
Our latest equity rates of $100.7 million accomplished at a net price above book value allows us the continued flexibility to take advantage what should be a building year for new deals while staying close to our leverage targets for 2012. Despite the volatile market environment, we issued stock above book value, and unlike many of our peers, we did not ask for permission from our shareholders to sell below book value.
We continue to believe that selling stock below book value is rarely justified. Reiterating some of our guidance for 2012, we currently expect the portfolio to remain in a range of 70% to 80% first lien loans with our Sumitomo facility being consolidated. And we expect to be on average leveraged about 0.6 times excluding our 10-year fixed non-recourse SBA debentures. We are exploring ways to de-consolidate the Sumitomo facility in a way that should be accretive to earnings and allow the facility to expand more rapidly.
Our fiscal year earnings guidance remains at about $1.15 per share, which fully covers our dividend with net investment income. As the portfolio continues to mature, we believe that we will experience more repayments, which will drive earnings due to the acceleration of our upfront fees in addition to the recognition of exit fees, payment penalties and occasionally equity realizations.
As for origination volume, we expect to have $100 million to $300 million per quarter on average through the year of gross originations with each quarter being successively higher. We anticipate that the fourth calendar quarter could be a record setting quarter with the tax changes mentioned before. This quarter, ending March 31, has started off surprisingly slow, and we've only just recently seen signs of a pickup in activity.
Our first fiscal quarter net income of $0.29 per share was in the mid-point of our previously issued guidance. Going forward, we expect our earnings power to be better realized as we have increased velocity in the portfolio, are starting to realize some of our equity investments, collect pre-payment penalties and exit fees on occasion and have a much more efficient capital structure.
In 2012 we will also benefit from an expanding capital markets platform that may generate over $1 million in fee income. We anticipate that part of this additional earnings will come from better matching our targeted leverage, increased utilization of our credit lines and continued reallocation of the assets in the portfolio. We also have equity stakes that should start to be realized as the companies mature. These gains will continue to offset our capital loss carry forward and generate some growth in net asset value. Earning our dividend will also assist in growing NAV over time.
We continue to finance larger companies which we believe are inherently safer with the typical borrower having EBITDA in the $10 million to $30 million range. We believe that our high first lien exposure coupled with investing in larger and more stable portfolio companies and our robust diligence and portfolio management processes will result in a greater portfolio stability should the economy pull back again.
At the same time, we feel comfortable that our weighted average yield of 12.27% at 12/31 will remain stable now that we've reached our targeted portfolio amounts. We believe interest rate spreads currently are above average and are finding value both in the lower middle market and upper middle market due to continuing scarcity of capital available to these markets from traditional lenders.
We expect, however, that the supply demand equation will shift more positively from lenders as the year progresses and anticipate the pricing will tighten with that shift. We have seen continued positive momentum in the credit quality of our assets. Categories 3, 4 and 5 rated securities continue to account for less than 2% of the portfolio at Fair Value as of December 31, 2011.
This is a positive trend that positions us well for the next down cycle, potentially allows us to increase our return on equity. Following our approach to be one of the most transparent companies in the BDC industry, we will continue to release the debt-to-EBITDA of our rating tranches, as well as update our investors on a regular basis.
We are excited to announce that we are growing our Chicago presence. We have signed a new lease commencing in April for expanded space and expect to hire a Chicago based field team in 2012 to better service our private equity sponsor client base there.
Our expectation is to continue to add many strong, experienced institutional credit and operating members through the balance of the year, and I am so far pleased with the response and caliber of individuals attracted to our organization. To service our clients, Fifth Street continues to build a broad institutional platform both in terms of technology and team members.
We believe that our strong brand and relationship allows us to capture premium pricing over the market. The market is also differentiating lenders based on balance sheet capacity, namely whole size, and the ability to grow with client's platform companies. We have led and agented an increased number of deals this year, and we are recognized as a top-10 lender in the middle market by PitchBook for the second year in a row.
We have also expanded our capital markets presence through the development of strong syndicate relationships. Our investment grade rating coupled with large credit capacity gives our clients comfort that we will make expansion capital available to them when needed.
Fifth Street's reputation in the middle market as a leader, as well as its market share, should continue to grow as we add to our institutional platform and continue to provide a high level of service to our private equity sponsors. We are very excited about the opportunities in the middle market, and we expect M&A activity to increase this year.
I will now hand the call over to our President, Bernie Berman.