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The New York Times Company (NYT)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 6, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Tiffany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The New York Times Company Q4 and Full Year 2013 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Andrea Passalacqua, Director of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Andrea Passalacqua

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to The New York Times Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Mark Thompson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Follo, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Denise Warren, Executive Vice President, Digital Products and Services; and making her debut on this call, Meredith Kopit Levien, Executive Vice President of Advertising. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management will make forward-looking statements during the course of this call, and our actual results could differ materially. Some of the risks and uncertainties that could impact our business are included in our 2012 10-K. I should also mention that our presentation will include non-GAAP financial measures, and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release, which is available on our website at investors.nytco.com. And finally, this morning, we will discuss the impacts on our revenues of the extra week in our fiscal fourth quarter and full year of 2012, which is also provided in the exhibits of this morning's press release. Cost and profitability metrics include the additional week. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Mark Thompson.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Thanks, Andrea, and good morning, everyone. 2013 is my first full year at the company, and we finish on a high note, posting solid results in the fourth quarter. As you'll hear, there's some complexity in comparing the quarter with the same period in 2012 because of the special items and the fact that Q4 2012 had an extra week. Nonetheless, we were pleased with the fundamentals of our business in the period. We slightly increased our overall revenues, excluding that extra week in 2012. We saw favorable trends in both print and digital advertising and added more net new digital subscribers than in the previous 2 quarters. We turned costs, notwithstanding significant investment in our growth initiatives. We also made noteworthy progress on our new strategy in 2013, and we remain on track to execute that strategy in 2014 and beyond. This year will be an important one for us, with a particular focus on new digital subscription products we intend to launch in the second quarter and on our efforts to restore digital advertising to sustainable growth. The new products are intended to expand our subscription base by offering consumers a wider and more tailored set of subscription options, with additional packages available at price points both below and above our current portfolio. The reaction of readers to these products and the new portfolio will obviously be key, and we're watching that closely throughout the year. At the start of 2014, we launched the redesigned nytimes.com. It's been getting almost unanimously positive reviews with cleaner, more engaging user experience. As part of the redesign, Meredith and her team made The Times' first foray into native digital advertising with the launch of paid posts, and this effort is already driving incremental advertising revenue. We remain committed, of course, to…

James M. Follo

Analyst

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As you've already heard, because of fiscal calendar, both the fourth quarter and full year of 2012 had an additional week for purposes of our results. My comments that address revenues will exclude the impact of the actual week. Costs were more difficult to break down on a week-to-week basis, so cost and profitability metrics include the additional week. As Mark noted, we closed 2013 on a positive note, marked by a quarter of improved revenues and attention to costs. We're taking a very strategic approach to our investment spending, fueling those initiatives that are clearly focused on driving revenues, especially in our digital subscription business, while continuing to search for avenues to reduce nonessential costs. Our fourth quarter performance reflects the steady build of the circulation side of our business, combined with continued improvement on its advertising side, resulting in slight overall revenue growth. Costs, again, declined, the result of our continuing commitments to cost -- to expense management, as well as the impact of the additional week. Operating profit before depreciation, amortization, severance and special items decreased 12% to $97 million, largely as a result of the additional week and the impact of spending on growth initiatives. Circulation revenues rose 3% in the quarter, with the digital subscription revenue stream contributing the most to that increase, partially offset by difficult print comparisons connected to last year's election season. We saw a 19% growth in the company's digital subscription base and also benefited from the 2013 home delivery price increases at The Times. This combination led to circulation revenue growth to more than offset declines in advertising and other revenues, resulting in a slight overall revenue growth. Advertising maintains its momentum on the print side while showing improvement on the digital side, leading…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Alexia Quadrani with JPMorgan. Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Just a quick follow-up on your outlook for the advertising revenue. Do you have any sense of how advertising trends did in the month of January? And then a second question, sort of a bigger question is how do you see the downside risk or I guess the risk-reward of the changing pricing tier on the digital subs? You guys have done such a great job a few years into this paid model. You came to see very good growth. I guess if you could just talk more broadly about how we can sort of assess the risk and reward of this new initiative and -- coming up.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Alexia, it's Mark here. I'm going to ask Meredith to answer the first question and, perhaps, get Denise to effect on the second one. But, Meredith, why don't you have a go at the January trends?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst

Sure. So in January, we would say, in print, we saw a nice start to the year, generally bolstered by the Super Bowl and the Oscars rates. So beyond that, as Jim said, we expect the rest of the quarter to be broadly in line with what we saw in the fourth quarter.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Yes. And then looking further ahead, we're also noting some slightly tougher year-on-year comps later in the year.

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. The second half comps are a lot more challenging.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Okay. Denise, you want to do that rather complicated question.

Denise F. Warren

Analyst

Yes.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

So the sort of the tradeoffs involved in the new launches.

Denise F. Warren

Analyst

Yes. I think the question you're asking, Alexia, is what's the potential for cannibalization as we introduce lower pricing tiers. And I think it's really important for me to underscore something we've said in the past, which is that we strongly believe that the cannibalization effect will be mitigated by the fact that the vast majority of our core customers prefer complete access to Times journalism. So in our view, that really does provide an effective fence around the trade-down. And we believe that we're going to be able to manage it accordingly. Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And when do you think we'll get, from the outside, a sort of sense of how it's initially going? Will it take a couple of quarters, or will you get a sense right away?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst

We're going to be looking at the results from day 1. So as we did with the initial foray into the digital subscription business, we built the model to be flexible so that we can make changes as we see them happening. It's hard for me to say. I think it's going to take a couple of quarters for the business to settle in and for it to be at a stable level. But you'll -- we'll be sharing the results once we announce on a quarterly call, so you'll get a read on that fairly quickly. Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: And then just last question, and I'm sure you guys probably get tired of being asked this, but the cash continues to build. I guess can you update us on your priorities to use of cash?

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Sorry. Could you just repeat the question again, Alexia? Alexia S. Quadrani - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: With the cash continuing to build every quarter, post the sale being where it is, could you update us on use of cash?

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Well, I mean, we don't have any change really to the -- to our current view on this. We restored a dividend in the course of 2013. And we continue to take a pretty prudent view of the balance sheet, because of the relative scale of our pension and other obligations in relation to the size of the current Times Company and because of continued volatility in revenue, particularly in advertising revenue. So we have no real change on that. But as you say, the balance sheet is, in a sense, a process which began a couple of years ago, strengthening the balance sheet has taken in the quarter and through 2013 we've taken it to another stage. Do you want to add anything, Jim?

James M. Follo

Analyst

I think I would add is we're coming off in about 12 months of maturity of somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million, $225 million of bonds that come due. And obviously, the plan right now is to take some of that cash off the balance sheet and retire that debt. Consistent with Mark said, we do think we need to rightsize the debt to the business as it exists today post the divestitures that we've gone through the last couple of years. But I will say just -- I noted in my remarks, too, the pension issue is clearly gotten significantly better, and we feel pretty good about where that's gone. But there's still -- we still have to watch carefully the business and the trends and we'll continue to be flexible.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of William Bird with FBR. William G. Bird - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: Could you discuss just the timing on the new tiered product launches? And just overall, how do you expect digital subscribers to trend in the first quarter?

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Denise...

Denise F. Warren

Analyst

Sure, I'll take this. Let me start with the second question first. So as Jim said, just in terms of revenue, we expect overall circulation revenue increase in the low-single digits. As for subscribers, we expect largely to be in line with last year's trends, excluding the benefits of the holiday. And where we see the growth coming from in the first quarter is what I'll call our optimization efforts, which are retention efforts and marketing optimization around improving the performance on marketing by establishing more rigorous and diligent testing of marketing creatives and pretty much every way we market our customers. International will grow in Q1 and contribute to that, and then the corporate and education sector will also be a contributor. So that's the outlook for Q1. In terms of timing, what we've said is second half is when we begin to launch the first of our new products. The first one to launch will be NYT Now.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Quarter 2 is what we said...

Denise F. Warren

Analyst

Sorry, second quarter, right, not second half. My apologies. William G. Bird - FBR Capital Markets & Co., Research Division: Okay. And then, separately, just on advertising, I guess a question for Mark and Meredith. Have you made any tweaks to your print ad sales strategy? Is there anything you're doing differently in the second half that might explain the print declines narrowing as well?

Mark Thompson

Analyst

I'll go first but then I'll hand to Meredith. We just determined the first things that we -- in the first half of 2013, we reorganized the company, set up advertising as an independent division. I hired Meredith to come in as Unit Head of Advertising. We saw a lot of tenures in role and structure, and so we've got a very strong in-house team, but we also saw some new talent coming in to the company and I think a lot of energy flowing into advertising. I think that's -- as well as, obviously, broader facts to the U.S. economy and trends to the industry rate. I think that's part of what was going on. But, Meredith, do you want to pick up things for me?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst

Yes, I would agree with all that. I would add to it that we have for a long time and continue to approach the market on an integrated basis. And so if you look at the categories where we did well in print in the fourth quarter, like corporate or home furnishing, books, entertainment. These are all categories that generally are bolstering in the print and digital. So I think we're doing well on an integrated basis and selling integrated programs.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

Craig Huber

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

I have a few questions, please. I'll start with the -- on the digital subscription side, what percent of your digital subs, say, in the fourth quarter are from international, please?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

So, Craig, it's Denise. So our international subscriber base grew in line with expectations in the fourth quarter. As for the overall percentage, it did grow, but we're not going to get in the habit of updating this number in the future as our overall mix is going to be changing substantially with the launch of all of our new products.

Craig Huber

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

Okay. Let me ask another question. For your mobile advertising, what percentage of mobile advertising right now is digital? You have $53 million of digital ad revenue in the quarter. What percent roughly is for mobile?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

It's still a modest percentage. And we think about it in terms of 2 front categories, smartphone versus tablet. And what we saw was strong gains in smartphone, and we had some difficult comps in tablets. So it's really 2 different stories there, and we do expect it to continue to grow.

Craig Huber

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

And then, Jim, these investment costs you're talking about for the new year here, can you just explain to us, if you would please, just how they layer in for 2014 by quarter and how that would compare to a year ago?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

Well -- so this year, we really didn't spend much in the growth initiatives, and the first quarter it was quite modest. And quite frankly, it's quite modest in the second quarter. We began to -- those costs began to increase in the third quarter. And so I would say for the full year, somewhere in the $20 million range is what we -- is what the initiatives we spent on. And, let's say, at least half of that, maybe a little bit more was in the fourth quarter. So we're certainly hitting our stride, and so we'll begin to build on that number even as we go into next year. So we'll see year-over-year growth pretty substantial in the first quarter, because we're comping against nothing. So the spending will exceed, obviously, the spending we saw in the fourth quarter, and then build beyond that. So the guidance I gave was for increased cost relative to that $20 million. So that would suggest somewhere around $40 million to $45 million building throughout the year for total -- for the total expenses.

Craig Huber

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

Then my last question, if I could, on the print side for advertising in the quarter. Could you just give us a little bit of breakdown in terms of like maybe your top 3 or 4 ad categories, most particularly, I want to hear about luxury good, please, and also hit the 3 to 4 categories are the worst year-over-year?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst · Huber Research Partners.

Sure. We saw strength in corporate, as I said before, driven largely by the energy companies. We saw strength in home furnishings, which I think can be attributed to just broader economic improvement. We saw strength in books, which has to do with revamping of our book section, as well as great titles being introduced in the fourth quarter, the [indiscernible] and then strength in live entertainment. As it relates to luxury, specifically, there, again, I think it's sort of a tale of categories within the broader luxury category. So broadly, in the fourth quarter, luxury was down. We saw strong results from American fashion and strong results, as I said, on home, which we consider luxury, less strong results in fashion jewelry and international, there, has to do with some in the international case, money spent earlier in the year. So just a different pacing for international fashion, and we had some operational issues in fashion jewelry we expect to improve.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kannan Venkateshwar of Barclays.

Kannan Venkateshwar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

So a couple of questions. The first is on the cost side. You guys have done an excellent job over the last few years cutting down costs, and it looks like there's still a lot more room. So that's one lever that you guys are able to use a lot. And the second part is, of course, the revenue mix shift, which is potentially in 2015, with video and some of the new initiatives also starting to contribute. So when we think about the end state for the business, I mean, what is the kind of margin profile that we should be looking at? That's one part. And the second part is if you can just detail out some of the cost segments where there is still more room for you to go, that would be great.

James M. Follo

Analyst

Where there's room to go, we continue to look at kind of the non-digital part of the business. Digital, we're clearly in the investment mode, and I gave the number out where we're going to see that spending on the growth initiatives growing by $25 million to $30 million. That's in addition to the core business is growing. Because our core business, we expect to continue to grow. So that side of the business growing. On the non-digital side, it's shrinking. It's shrinking in G&A functions. It's shrinking our -- in the print area. We expect those to continue. So that's the way this thing will develop. I will say that I tried to give some visibility into the full year cost next year. We've got some headwinds relative to the growth initiatives, relative to the pension costs, which will create some real headwinds next year on the cost side of the business. But again, there's lot -- there's revenue coming from a big chunk of that, too. But the revenue will come following some of that cost build. That's where we see kind of the cost development. We do think there's opportunity. But you can't go through that significant cost reduction that we've gone through over a number of years and not think it's -- it doesn't get materially harder. But harder doesn't mean there's not more there, which is -- I think we've developed some expertise in that area, and we'll just have to continue to be good at it.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

And it just reflects on margin. I'm not going to give you kind of -- to how to model out a single number for this. But to make an obvious point, the -- some of the secular pressures, for example, on print advertising, have the effect of removing very high-margin revenue. And manifestly, to defend margin, cost-cutting becomes an important tool, as well as investment in new revenue streams. And obviously, where everyone can, one's trying to develop a new revenue streams, which are, themselves, high margin. But as you know, print advertising has got a margin of around 90%, and that's tough to match with new revenue streams. So I think -- although as Jim says, cost cutting becomes progressively harder with each turn of the wheel, it's going to be an important tool or weapon in our armory, alongside the other tasks, which is developing new products and services to drive fresh revenue.

Kannan Venkateshwar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

So one additional question on the video side of the business. I mean, out of all the initiatives that you've outlined in the past, it looks like, potentially, from a revenue perspective, and correct me if I'm wrong, video might actually be one of the biggest contributors going forward. So I wanted to understand, when you're looking at that particular market, a lot of the others out there, like AOL and so on, obviously, have a revenue stream already associated with it. And then you're talking to advertisers today. Compared to your print advertising segment, has that conversation changed? Because your print advertising tends typically to be driven by events like new product launches and so on, because of which we see some volatility. But the profile in video, I'm assuming, maybe slightly different. So some visibility on that would be great.

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst

I'll take a first crack at that. Video is obviously a growth area of advertising for us. It was in the fourth quarter. We expect it to be again in the coming quarter. But I do think that what we're seeing in video is that it's still being primarily used for brand advertising, and I think that's some of what you're asking about print.

Kannan Venkateshwar - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Yes.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

I think I would say at the moment -- I mean, we are at a fairly early stage in the development of video for our digital assets. Consumers of nytimes.com and our apps are still in the process of getting used to the idea of expecting and using video. We're seeing very strong year-on-year percentage increases in revenue but from, at the moment, at a relatively low base. So I think we've got a long build on video, but I'm pretty encouraged with the progress we've made so far.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from line of Doug Arthur with Evercore.

Douglas M. Arthur - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore.

Jim, not to beat the dead horse here, but on the investment spending, it seems like you didn't spend -- I mean, you were very specific on the third quarter conference call about the impact in the fourth quarter. And it seems like you didn't spend everything you thought you would in the fourth quarter. So it's -- is it fair -- is that fair to say and is that going to spill into the first half of 2014? And then the shares outstanding was up a lot. Is that the warrants because of the stock price? And is there a further dilution potential if -- at higher levels of the stock price?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Evercore.

I'll take that one first. The answer is when the stock price goes up, its dilutive impact on common stock equivalents, including warrants, goes up. So you're right that the increase in the share count is driven by not just the warrants, but that's a big number, but also stock options that are in the money. So all those things drive share price up. So we're not in control of that. We're happy when the share price goes up and the stock price goes up. So that's the answer there. You're right, we didn't spend quite what we thought we would in the fourth quarter, but I don't want overstate that issue. Probably a couple of million bucks we thought we'd spend that we didn't, maybe a couple of million. So it's all kind of embedded in that number. Quite frankly, had we spent all the money we thought we'd spend the year-over-year comps that I gave you, the $25 million to $30 million, would be lower on a year-over-year basis. But we're still on track. We still -- ultimately, we still feel comfortable with the margins we set out to achieve. We've just spent less kind of building to get to that point, but we're still on track to launch on time. And we still think this will still have the same margin potential as we set out to achieve.

Douglas M. Arthur - Evercore Partners Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Evercore.

And again, I'm getting repetitive here, but just to clarify. If you do spend everything you expect to spend in 2014, the spending will be at a run rate of $40 million to $45 million. Is that correct?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Evercore.

Again, we spent about $20 million in '13, and we expect that number to grow, between $25 million and $30 million. So that would suggest $45 million to $50 million, total all-in spending on those initiatives through the end of -- right.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Atorino with Benchmark.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

On pricing, any idea on the circulation cover price? Has that stayed the same? Because it's -- I see it in New York. Is the other New York price up on the cover?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Benchmark.

We largely increased home delivery prices by, on average, somewhere -- the 5% in early January. And as usual, we feel pretty good about the decision we made. We think we'll have, at least the -- or not, if not better, intended effect. So our -- the guidance we had in the first quarter kind of embeds -- probably largely seen as kind of a stable print circulation line, largely with...

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

Is that price increase both in New York and out of New York? It's just one pricing?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Benchmark.

Yes. It's home delivery across-the-board.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

Anything with the digital monthly price? Is that still -- are you going to add features? Are you going to make these features in the package deal, or is each one thing going to have a sort of incremental price?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Benchmark.

So for the lower-tier products, they will carry a lower price than our lowest offer, which is $15 every 4 weeks. Core subscribers...

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

So $15, huh?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Benchmark.

Yes, $15 every 4 weeks for the least expensive digital package currently. Those core subscribers will get the new products as part of their package, again, another way to preserve trade-down. And just to remind everybody, we also have a premium tier launching, which will be more expensive than the most expensive package, which is $35 every 4 weeks. So we're really trying to exploit the entire demand curve with a variety of different prices and products for our customers.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

Roughly, how many people are paying $15 and how many people are not?

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Benchmark.

We don't disclose that, Ed. As you can imagine, as we've said earlier, if you do the ARPU calculation, you could figure it out on your own. I mean, more people tend to pay for the lower-priced offerings than the higher ones.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

Right. What was your ad rate strategy for 2014? You raised -- I might have missed this -- raised ad rates?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst · Benchmark.

No.

Mark Thompson

Analyst · Benchmark.

No change.

Denise F. Warren

Analyst · Benchmark.

No change.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

You did not -- okay. Regarding the advertising trend, you talked about fashion. Was fashion overall down in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst · Benchmark.

Overall, it was probably close to flat if you mix different categories. We break it into 3 different categories. But overall, it's probably close to flat.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

And then the trend in -- was it February, January, whatever it is, that's...

Meredith Kopit Levien

Analyst · Benchmark.

In general, we're optimistic about luxury.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

What did you do on the classified categories? Any pricing there? Any trend?

James M. Follo

Analyst · Benchmark.

No, no. Classified, by the way, is a pretty small part of business, only represents about 10% of our print business.

Edward J. Atorino - The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division

Analyst · Benchmark.

Lastly, on the balance sheet, you've got all this cash. No, no. Somebody asked the same question, so I guess let's skip it. Okay.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference back over to our presenter, Andrea Passalacqua.

Andrea Passalacqua

Analyst

Thank you for joining us this morning, and we look forward to talking to you again next quarter.

Mark Thompson

Analyst

Thanks, everyone.