James M. Follo
Analyst · UBS
Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our company's positive performance in the third quarter was the result of overall revenue growth, combined with an ongoing focus on expense management, which, together, enabled us to deliver growth and operating profit before depreciation, amortization, severance and special items of 35% compared to the third quarter of 2012. Our strength on the revenue side was the result of sequential improvement in print advertising trends and continued progress in building our digital subscription revenue stream. Circulation revenues rose 5% in the quarter with the monetization of our digital products as the main driver. The continued growth for The Times' digital subscription numbers, combined with the price increases at The Times on the print side, led the circulation revenue growth to more than offset declines in advertising and other revenues, resulting in an increase of revenues of 2% in the quarter. In the third quarter, digital-only subscription revenues were approximately $38 million, an increase of about 29% from the same quarter in 2012. For the first 9 months of 2013, digital-only subscription revenues totaled $110 million, up 42% compared to the same period last year. Advertising revenue trends improved in the third quarter relative to the first half of the year with print advertising revenues down less than 2% and digital advertising revenues down about 3%, leading to an aggregate advertising revenue decline of 2% versus the prior year. Print and digital advertising both saw particular strength in September. Despite this sequential improvement, advertising revenue continues to be affected by secular trends, economic factors and a complex digital marketplace. Advertising revenues, again, exhibited the month-to-month volatility and short-term buying decisions that have pervaded the market, down 15% in July, flat in August and up 7% in September. National print advertising saw positive growth from the third quarter, leading to overall positive growth in the national category while retail and classifieds each declined on the print side. Digital advertising revenue declines were driven by the classified category and also saw decreases in national and retail. Digital advertising continued to experience challenges in the quarter from programmatic buying issues, along with the pricing pressures caused by a glut of inventory across the market. Despite this pressure, we expect to gain momentum on the digital advertising front and ultimately return to positive growth by focusing more heavily on areas such as video, tablet and unique custom advertising. Rounding out our results, operating expenses before depreciation, amortization and severance decreased about 1%, and on a GAAP basis, costs were also down 1%. We report an operating profit of $13 million in the quarter and a diluted loss per share of $0.03. The earnings per share loss was driven mainly by an income tax expense of $2.6 million, which includes a $1.5 million charge related to the remeasurement of our deferred tax assets as a result of the New England Media Group sale. Excluding severance and special items, the dilutive loss per share was $0.01. Moving on to costs. The company continued its long-term cost expense management effort in the third quarter as we, again, found ways to trim expenses across the broad spectrum of categories. Lower pension expense and raw material costs, as well as printing and distribution efficiencies, were the largest contributors to the decline despite expenses associated with our growth initiatives in the quarter. Raw material costs declined 13% in the quarter, mainly due to lower consumption and lower newsprint prices. We will continue to be diligent in trimming expenses and managing legacy costs, but we expect the expenses associated with our new strategic initiatives will accelerate in the fourth quarter and will continue to do so in 2014 as we begin to market our new products domestically and internationally. We are now estimating that operating profit will be negatively affected by about $10 million in the fourth quarter and about $15 million to $20 million for the full year of 2013 as a result of these initiatives. Some of the investment spending that we expected to incur in the third quarter has been a bit delayed as hiring has taken longer than originally planned. Moving to the balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our cash and marketable securities totaled approximately $938 million, exceeding total debt by approximately $255 million. The increase in our cash balance was the result of cash flows from operations as we continued to generate meaningful cash. This amount does not take into account the New England Media Group sale proceeds. In the quarter, we also repurchased about $12 million principal amount of our 6 5/8% senior notes. As Mark mentioned, we've finalized the sale of the New England Media Group last week for approximately $70 million in cash, subject to customary adjustments, and we've also filed an 8-K with further historical information for the remaining company. We will not be updating our underfunded pension status today, but I can confirm that the estimate we gave on our second quarter call would not have been affected by the New England Media Group sale since we are retaining substantially all pension and post-retirement obligations. Finally, we've begun the marketing of one additional floor of our headquarters building for rental purposes, which makes up a total of about 31,000 square feet. We aim to complete this process in the middle of next year, and we'll begin recording rental income at that time. This will bring us to a total of 7 leased floors, and we don't currently anticipate leasing any additional floors. As a reminder, before we get into our fourth quarter outlook, financials for the quarter 2012 continuing operations were provided through the last -- through last week's 8-K filing. Our fourth quarter guidance on revenue trends will be based upon a 13-week comparison, excluding the impact of the additional week in the fourth quarter of 2012. In last year's fourth quarter, we estimated the extra week resulted in an incremental $14 million of circulation revenue and $12 million in advertising revenue. Fourth quarter circulation revenues are expected to increase in the low-single digits as we expect to see continued benefit from our digital subscription initiatives and from this year's print price increase at The Times, which will be partially offset by difficult print comparisons connected to last year's election season. Advertising revenue trends in the fourth quarter remains subject to month-to-month volatility and are expected to decrease in the low-single digits. Fourth quarter operating costs, based upon the comparison with the longer 2012 quarter, are expected to increase in the low-single digits as investments around our strategic growth initiatives offset the benefit of a shorter quarter. And with that, we'd be happy to take your questions.