Earnings Labs

The New York Times Company (NYT)

Q4 2010 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 3, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to The New York Times Fourth Quarter 2010 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. A question-and-answer session will follow today’s presentation. (Operator Instructions). For opening remarks and introductions, I’d like to turn the conference over to Ms. Paula Schwartz, Director of Investor Relations, please go ahead.

Paula Schwartz

Management

Thank you and good morning everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2010 earnings conference call. We have several members of our senior management team here to discuss our results with you including Janet Robinson, President and CEO; Jim Follo, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Scott Heekin-Canedy, President and General Manager of The Times and Martin Nisenholtz, Senior Vice President of Digital Operations. All of the comparisons on this conference call will be for the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2009, unless otherwise stated. Our discussion will include forward-looking statements and our actual results may differ from those projected. Some of the factors that may cause them to differ are included in our 2009 10-K. Our presentation will also include non-GAAP financial measures and we have provided reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings press release which is available on our corporate website at www.nytco.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Janet Robinson.

Janet Robinson

Management

Thank you Paula and good morning everyone. Our fourth quarter and full-year results reflects both the transformation our industry is undergoing and the choppy form the economic recovery is taking. During this time, we took decisive actions as demonstrated by the fact that our operating profit before depreciation, amortization severance and special items increased 20% for the year compared with 2009, with slightly lower overall revenues offset by a greater improvement in cost savings. The year did improve -- proved more challenging as it progressed with operating profit on that same basis declining 7% in the fourth quarter as revenues declined slightly more than cost improved during that period. Last year's progress on the print advertising front and a steady double-digit growth in our digital advertising numbers are proof of our enduring brand strength. While we ended the quarter and the year slightly down in overall advertising revenue, 2010 provided significant evolution encouragement for our company in many ways. We are well positioned to capitalize on the digitization of our content in the coming year and we remain confident in our new online pay strategy and the company's overall future. In the fourth quarter, we continued our focus on core initiatives, including maintaining our brand promise of high quality journalism, our most coveted asset, expanding and preparing to further monetize our digital offerings with the impending introduction of NYTimes.com pay model and a very positive reception to our new NYTimes app for the iPad, rigorously controlling our expenses as we identify areas for continued cost re-engineering, even against the backdrop of difficult cost comparison; improving our liquidity partially through the $225 million debt transaction we completed in the quarter and our growing cash balance, and managing our asset portfolio to maintain its alignment with our core operations. In the fourth…

Jim Follo

Management

Thanks Janet. Our focus on controlling expenses has not abated. Operating costs excluding depreciation, amortization and severance decreased 2% in the quarter despite higher newsprint prices which were offset by lower compensation and benefit costs and decreases in various other expenses. There were no special items in the fourth quarter, but earnings per share in fourth quarter 2009 had been favorably affected by $0.22 for a pension curtailment gain resulting from the freezing of benefits under various company sponsored qualified and non-qualified pension plans and unfavorably affected by $0.07 for a loss on leases and for a fee for the early terminations of a third-party printing contract and by $0.01 for a write down of assets due to the reduced scope of a system project. Severance costs were $0.02 per share in the quarter were less than $5 million compared to $0.10 per share or $25 million in the fourth quarter of 2009. Depreciation and amortization decreased $30 million in the quarter, and to $121 million from $134 million for the year. In 2011, we expect depreciation and amortization to be $125 million and $130 million. Newsprint expense increased by 28% with significantly higher prices offset slightly by decrease in consumption. There were no additional East Coast newsprint prices in the second half of the year. However, newsprint prices were still significantly higher in the fourth quarter compared with the same period of 2009. We believe newsprint prices in 2011 will be higher as supply and demand conditions in the North American newsprint market are expected to remain balanced. In November, we completed a $225 million debt offering of 6.625% senior notes due 2016. Our ability to effect this debt transaction on these terms underscores the confidence that the financial investment community have in our future. Net interest expense increased…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. (Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Alexia Quadrani, JPMorgan.

Alexia Quadrani - JPMorgan

Analyst

Thank you. Couple of questions on the print side first. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color on your plans, on the expenses for 2011. You guys have done an impressive job, containing cost through this cycle and I am just trying to get a sense of how much more cost you think you can take out of the business in 2011?

Jim Follo

Management

Alexia, you know, we haven’t obviously given a detailed number. We did suggest that there are some headwinds in two areas, principally in newsprint prices and pension. That being said, we have some of that same headwind in the back half of 2011, particularly in the second half on newsprint prices. And we have obviously managed to find a way to offset that growth in expenses. It's early in the year. I think, will be adaptable to our cost structure as we need to. And I think, as I said, we will continue to be aggressive but we are not prepare right now to give full-year forecast on where those costs go, but, you know, I think our track record has been strong in that area.

Alexia Quadrani - JPMorgan

Analyst

So, I guess, put in another way, you don’t think you are surely getting close to the bone. You think there is more opportunity left in the business?

Jim Follo

Management

Look, you could have made that case in 2010 as well, given, we took $475 million out ‘09 and we found a way to reduce our cash expenses by $111 million despite the headwind on newsprint prices. So we feel confident, we have the organization discipline to do that and I think I would expect to continue to do that. I will say just kind of as you think a way how the yield developed, obviously, the negative impact in newsprint prices will be more pronounced early in the year until we start kind of catching up to the way those prices increase next year or so. More of the pressure will be in the front half of the year on newsprint prices than would be in back.

Alexia Quadrani - JPMorgan

Analyst

And I was a little surprised to see the auto classified number down so much. I think you said it was up in Boston, but the way it play out [ph], anymore color you can give on that? We are seeing the trends a bit better at some of your peers in the fourth quarter.

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

Alexia, this is Scott. I would point out that at the Times out of classified is a pretty small category. The classified in total is 10% of our business and automotive is a couple of points of revenue. And there continues to be volatility in the whole revenue base but classified in particular. In contrast, I will point out also that recruitment has been in positive territory for the last couple of quarters of the year and real estate is on a trend of continuing improvement throughout 2010 into the final quarter.

Alexia Quadrani - JPMorgan

Analyst

And then last question on the digital side, Janet, you talked a bit about the success you had in advertising on the iPad app. I know this is still obviously a new endeavor but any sense, I’m just trying to get a sense of revenues that you’re talking about there in terms of size. Any general sense on when that may be come a significantly number, a significant portion of digital revenue?

Janet Robinson

Management

Well, I think that there is an aggressive sales effort underway in regard to the sponsorships that we’ve already sold in regard to the application. We noted in fact all of the fourth quarter of last year, that indeed we were selling this very proactively and that people were lining up which sold out very quickly in the fourth quarter. And as you look to 2011, it’s clear that we are selling very rapidly in regards to sponsorships associated with that as well. It’s clear also in regard to other applications that we have out there the IHT just launching theirs, that indeed this sponsorship model worked very nicely in regard to application and consecutively with there being a healthy marketplace for it. We seem to be doing extremely well and garnering quite a bit of market share there.

Alexia Quadrani - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next here from Craig Huber Access 342

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. This negative 7.2% print advertising revenue drop here in the fourth quarter, Janet, how much of that do you think was pricing versus volume?

Janet Robinson

Management

It’s very much volume. From a standpoint of The Times, The Times rate yield was up in fact in the fourth quarter of last year, all of last year, for the entire year, and the Boston Globe was flat to a little up in regard to rate. There was a slight decrease on the regional newspapers, but it really is a volume issue Craig as opposed to rate.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

Okay, and then I think you mentioned in the month of January, your digital newspaper ad revenues were up 3% - 5%, can you just talk about that. There’s obviously a major slow down from what we had in back half of the year, 20% or so?

Jim Follo

Management

I think we talked about all digital being in the mid-single digits. The News Media Group digital revenues, as Janet said, continued to grow very robustly, grew very robustly in January; About continued to be soft. So that would be the -- those would be the two levers.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

Okay, so I misunderstood you there. And then can you also speak about your pension plan, your assumptions for the discount rate or the long-term rate of return on the planned assets. Did that change at all from what you had at the end of the last year?

Jim Follo

Management

Discount rates obviously changed as I stated in my remarks.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

What did it change to, if you could tell us please?

Jim Follo

Management

There is two sets of numbers here. From a funding perspective which is amended by ERISA, , the rate we used in 2009 was about 7 -- 6.7%, the number for 2010 year end was about 6.36%. So there was about a 34 basis point decline and I think I regularly said the most sensitive -- the thing that’s most sensitive to funding is interest rate changes. So a three quarters ago a third of a point is quite a big number. From a GAAP perspective that number is actually larger because of the way is the discount rate is calculated. So for end of year 2009, the discount rate was about 6.30 and for the end of 2010 it’s about 5.65, that’s about 65 basis point decline and that has quite a bit sensitivity obviously.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

What about the rate of return assumption please?

Jim Follo

Management

The rate of return assumption for 2010 was 8.75. We will finalize our view of that rate for 2011 in our 10-K and that will be something that will be subject to, as it always is, to discussions at our committee meeting.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

So that obviously did not change for your company.

Jim Follo

Management

Not in 2010.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

Yes.

Jim Follo

Management

That's correct.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

And I guess, if I add one more question.

Jim Follo

Management

I am sorry, Craig, I would just say that that’s something we evaluate anyways, an annual number. It's a one year number, that gets only evaluated on an annual basis. As we will do it this year, we will finalize it and report it in the10-K.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

And then I am sorry, Janet, if you could talk a little about what your outlook is here for the month of February for newspaper ad revenue trends, is that trending similar to the whole month of January that what you can see so far?

Janet Robinson

Management

Yes, it's very early in the month for us to give any forecast. We outlined what the situation was in January that January started off slow, that weather has played a -- been a factor in that certainly and still economic sluggishness. As January went on, we saw more improvement in the third, fourth and fifth weeks of the month. But as far as February and the quarter it's much too early for us to give a forecast.

Craig Huber - Access 342

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Janet Robinson

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll go to Leo Kulp with Citi.

Leo Kulp - Citi

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. So, have you been able to sell advertising effectively against the international user base on the online?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

Yes, we actually have done that in a couple of different ways. We have a sales force that operates out of the IHT and we’ve integrated those sales forces a while ago and they do a very nice job selling the Times Global package. So, we sell both U.S. advertisers into the global packages as well as endemic advertisers by the country. I would say, that -- it would be a stretch to say that we would go into France and sell the user base, the French user base, to French companies. I think that’s where you would want to draw the line. But we have a very sizeable international marketplace now at the New York Times and we do monetize it.

Jim Follo

Management

And since we integrated the New York Times, NYTimes.com and IHT website, we have seen substantial growth in international traffic in our international sales. That dates back almost two years now.

Leo Kulp - Citi

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that and on another one, you mentioned that benefits comped down in the fourth quarter, where would that come from, was that from pension contribution or was there something else?

Jim Follo

Management

A host of things. Year-over-year our headcount is down 3 to 4%. That was a contributor. Obviously, benefits has been something that we have been pretty aggressively tackling. So, our year-over-year basis, we had frozen our defined benefit plan year ago. You know, there is some timing issues with respect to how we book our variable compensation. But there is a whole host of factors. But, we have seen that really throughout the year as well.

Leo Kulp - Citi

Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And next we will hear from John Janedis with UBS.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Can you help us understand ongo.com a little bit better meaning. If I paid this 6.99 a month, what do I get that I would if I already go directly to the partner website so that that would be behind the pay wall for the iPad or mytimes.com?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

Sure. The Times offers 20 stories a day to the Ongo service. So obviously, if you are a Times’ loyalist, regular Times user, you would come to NYTimes.com and once we go forward with the new model, you would pay your fee and you would use the Times on an unlimited basis. You use many more than the amount of content. You use the amount of content that you wanted to choose. At Ongo, the positioning for Ongo is really a kind of best of the best. In other words, it’s a aggregation service that takes content from the best brands and it’s just started, so the number brands currently being offered is somewhat limited; it’s the Times, The Post and the Gannett newspapers right now, as well as others including content from the FT and the Associated Press. And that all gets combined and aggregated into a kind of best of the best position. And so you would potentially come to NYTimes.com as your first read but if you wanted to go and then find what was going on at the FT and The Post and USA Today and the local newspaper and other sources, you would use that aggregation service to do that. And you can almost think of it as a kind of Hulu of news in some ways. Ultimately, things will be up-sold, so people will be able to create a potential of up sell, to other packages of content, and so it’s a combination of curation, that the editors at Ongo package this for you, as well as algorithmic science, which allows them to integrate all of these stuff and present it in a aggregated way.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

Okay, thanks. And then Jim, I think you referenced the newsprint expense increase and you don’t want to go for the full year but when you look at the first quarter, I assume there will be cost related to the pay wall, may be some marketing around that at some point. Would you expect expenses to actually be flattish in 1Q, and then maybe trend flat to down in the rest of the year, maybe you can help us at least on the first quarter?

Jim Follo

Management

As I said in my remarks earlier, just to way the math will work on newsprint, there will be more impacts on newsprint cost early in the year and later in the year. I am not prepared to necessarily put a number out there. I think on the pay wall side, I think most of those costs are being capitalized, so there’s very little impact. We seen that, again, we’ve been holding this thing for six months or more, and we have not really called that out, any many material layers that really impact on our business, and that should not change in the first half of the year.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

Okay.

Jim Follo

Management

But on that I think we’ll just have to be aggressive in finding ways to manage our costs as we see fit. Things are really dynamic and volatile and we’ll be flexible in our expense going forward.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

Okay. Maybe just one last question. Thanks. On the classified side, you obviously mentioned that you’ve got less exposure relative to pees for that category. Do you expect any kind of impact in the first quarter from the later Easter on the print business?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

I forgot, I think Easter was in April last year.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

I think it was maybe April 4th versus later April 7th, I would think maybe you had give more retail in the March of last year maybe that you won’t get this year, but I don’t know what your thoughts are on that?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

Yes, it’s been a long time since we have experienced an Easter so late in April and we’re still looking at that. I wouldn’t expect it to have a material effect on the quarters.

John Janedis - UBS

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we’ll go to Doug Arthur with Evercore.

Doug Arthur - Evercore Partners

Analyst

Yeah, two questions; Janet, I guess one of the few positives on the print side was dramatically better retail particularly at the Times. I mean that category has been down a lot year-to-date, so Q4 is a big improvement. I’m wondering if you can elaborate on that a little bit and whether you think that’s a turn in the trend and then I’ve got a follow-up to Jim.

Janet Robinson

Management

I will have Scott give you the overview on regard to the retail there. I would point out that they were difficult comps in Boston in regards to retail. The print business did quite nicely in the fourth quarter but they had a very big Macy’s spend in the fourth quarter of last year and they had quite a bit of advertising from Macy’s but it was exceptional in regard to the comparisons year-over-year and Scott is going to give you the Times story.

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

The retail there, there are several major categories in retail, departmental stores, mass market, fine-arts, fashion jewelry, and certain different things going in each of those categories, but as a generalization it reflects the optimism about the consumer marketplace and intentions for holidays spending in the fourth quarter, and I think it’s very circumstantial and reflects the -- it’s another way to think about volatility in categories as marketers respond to very specific and short-term market conditions. It’s not only was it up as you might you’re looking at, it was up in print and digital combined and we’re at that stage in our evolution where our primary focus is on how spending is taking place in the two mediums on a combined basis. As Janet pointed out in remarks, over 80% of our top 100 accounts are spending in both media and their campaigns are very typically integrated campaigns.

Doug Arthur - Evercore Partners

Analyst

So it's too early to call the profit in Q4 a trend?

Scott Heekin-Canedy

Analyst

I would be reluctant to call it a trend. As I said I think it was specific to those -- to the environment in the fourth quarter and I am not sure we can extrapolate that environment.

Doug Arthur - Evercore Partners

Analyst

Okay. And then a follow-up for Jim. Jim, how do you lose money in joint ventures when you've got minority interest in newsprint mills?

Jim Follo

Management

NESV which is a ball team doesn’t do a lot of ball playing in the fourth quarter, and so -- look there was some -- in the fourth as well, there’s some issue related to an acquisition that NESV did and there was some I think some acquisition accounting that also drove that as well. But that principally – the fourth quarter tends to be very light quarter was profitable at the newsprint mills and it's not profitable in the baseball world. That’s the way it generally works. Doug Arthur – Evercore Partners: Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back to Paula Schwartz for any additional or closing comments.

Paula Schwartz

Management

Thank you for attending our call. If you have any additional questions please give a call. Thank you. Bye-bye.