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Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 3, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, please standby, we are about to begin. Good day, and welcome to the Nexstar Broadcasting Group's 2015 Third Quarter Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. All statements and comments made by management during this conference other than statements of historical fact may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21-A of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. The company's future financial conditions and results of operations, as well as forward-looking statements are subject to change. The forward-looking statements and comments made during the conference call are made only as of the date of today's conference call. Management will also be discussing non-GAAP information during this call. In compliance with Regulation G, reconciliations of this non-GAAP information to non-GAAP measurements are included in today's news announcement. The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements reflective of changes in circumstances. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, Nexstar President and CEO, Perry Sook. Please go ahead, sir. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. We're excited to have you join us to discuss Nexstar's record third quarter revenue results, our organic growth and success stories and quickly integrating and realizing upside from our completed accretive transactions, and our recently announced initiatives in terms of both additional M&A and returning capital to shareholders, all of which underscore our focus on enhancing shareholder value. As always, Tom Carter, our Chief Financial Officer will be with me on the call here this morning. On a high level, third quarter net revenue, BCF, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow growth again illustrate the value…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. And our first question comes from James Dix Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead, sir.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Three things, I think on my list. First in terms of core advertising, it sounds like the business in third quarter was similar in core growth as second; if you could just confirm that, and give any color you saw on changes in the tone of business throughout the quarter. And then how does 4Q look to be pacing at this stage in terms of core ad growth? And then secondly, just any update on your thoughts in terms of participating in the FCC incentive auction, any next milestones that investor should expect on the pathway in this process. And then the final one, which is the – any update in your outlook for political advertising for this two-year cycle, just given how the fund raising or the presidential primary spending that you've seen so far, or is it really too early to tell? Thanks a lot. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, James. I would say that the color on Q3 was pretty much as you had advertised that Q3; from a core advertising perspective, relatively in line and marginally better than Q2 in terms of core revenue. As I think we've mentioned, we had six of our top eight categories up, and the other two were basically flat. Retail was down slightly and insurance was down slightly to round out the top 10, but all in, our top 10 categories – Q3 top 10 categories finished ahead of prior-year final. And as I said, the automotive category was basically flat. We saw increases, double-digit increases, from General Motors and some of the foreign nameplates, and that category continues to remain stable as we move into Q4. But I would say in Q4, the – obviously October is in the books,…

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

And following from Deutsche Bank, we have Aaron Watts. Please go ahead, sir.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, guys, thanks. One follow-up on the ad environment; can you just call out auto? I think you said it was flat, Perry, in the quarter. Are you seeing any improvement in that category? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, as we roll into fourth quarter, I look at automotive spending as of last Friday compared to the prior year, kind of by category. We've got, again, double-digit increases from some nameplates, and the dealer spending continues to improve. We actually picked up pace over the last month in the automotive, and this was really before the effect of the Ford promotional announcement hit the public trades, and we had some advance bookings, and was constant in Illinois, and a few states. But the effect of that announcement, employee pricing, roll-out promotion, that hasn't really been factored into these numbers. So we think the automotive category will continue to improve between now and year-end, not only from increased spending from Ford to promote their new offer, but mainly from their competitors to maintain their share of market as well.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then, just one other one from me, a little bit bigger picture. CBS came out yesterday and announced they were going to launch a web-only Star Trek series, and I was just curious, if that in and of itself, that investment or that initiative is concerning, or as you think longer-term about the direction the networks might head with some of their over-the-top efforts or web-only efforts, if that's something that is potentially worrisome from your – from where you sit? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think it's really a push Aaron from my perspective, because the vehicle that will distribute, that will be CBS All Access, and if that increases the take rate to CBS All Access, in our marketplaces, then we participate financially with CBS, because we're the streaming – it is our local video that is streamed on a market-by-market basis. So I'm not sure that it is a game-changer, but I think it could be incrementally positive to us, because it would promote the distribution of CBS All Access.

Aaron L. Watts - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it, okay. Thanks again. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from John Janedis from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Thank you, good morning. Perry, the narrative around regulation has been in the headlines over the past couple of quarters as you know, and whether it's good faith or other topics, is there anything that concerns you that affects your negotiating position with your business partners? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: No, nothing that concerns us at this point. If the budget bill continues down the track that it's on, there is a very good chance that there will be a roll-back of JSA regulation to grandfather. JSA is an existence prior to the March 1, 2014 date, that's in both the House and the Senate bill, and one of the less controversial provisions, so I think that could actually yield some regulatory clarity, if it remains in the appropriations bill, and they continue to on their current path. So we never like to say never or ever, kind of relates to Washington, but I think that is a net positive development. And I think that due to a number of letters from very influential legislators, both Republic and then Democrat, the Chairman, Wheeler, the discussion of good faith and syndex and non-dupe and those kinds of things are slowing. The role has slowed a bit particularly as it relates to syndex and non-dupe exclusivity. So, I view that again as net positive, and the true regulatory reform will initiate from Congress, and not from a regulatory agency, and so we continue to stay close to our Congressmen both in Washington and when they're home in the districts.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks. And maybe one quick one on the auto category, just given some of the strength you talked about, is any of the drag coming from Volkswagen? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Volkswagen for us is, does not make the top ten spenders in terms of automotive, so it has not been a huge mover, positive or negative. It's not a top ten nameplate in terms of spending for us, and what you got outside of the top ten and the company, we're talking less than $0.5 million of ad spend on a consolidated basis for any particular quarter.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. One last one, hey Tom, just on the e-media segment, is that performing in line with expectations and what is the competitive environment looking like? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: With regard to expectations, it is slightly below where we had thought it to be, but the growth rate continues to be substantial, and with regard to the competitive environment, I'll let Perry answer that, being closer to the sale side. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I would say that, our local site revenue, which is about half of our digital media revenue continue, in that ad support, if that continues to perform in line with expectations, we've had tremendous success with LAKANA adding new customers, and that continues to perform ahead of expectations. I would say, not a headline, but programmatic digital video, distribution, there was a flood of inventory that came into the marketplace, almost in a high-frequency trading kind of an environment if you will, and there was some concern about fulfillment, and non-human traffic and things like that. So that market has seen a slowdown, the results are still ahead of last year, but we have pretty lofty internal expectations. But all-in, I think when you look at the – at the line, and you're reporting 55% growth on an organic basis, that's kind of mid-teens, that is basically plus or minus our expectations. But I think we have a clear path with these businesses. We also acquired a company called Kixer which was a small acquisitions, so it didn't get lot of top line financial press, but this is a company that has been built to basically help to monetize mobile video ad displays, and we think there's tremendous potential there, and that company was acquired in the third quarter, that will help LAKANA continue to monetize its relationship with its publishing partner beyond a fee-for-service basis. So, consistent with our theme of trying to build a tech stack that allows us to approach local businesses and publishers, and talk about the largest possible share of wallet beyond just traditional ad spend, the acquisition is consistent with our focus there. So, I will say again, our digital businesses are profitable and growing at rates that are substantially superior to core ad revenue, which is as we say, basically is advertised.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Right. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

And from Wells Fargo we have Marci Ryvicker. Please go ahead.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks, couple of questions. The first, we're hearing from some of the networks, I guess CBS in particular that conversations with Apple TV may have resumed, so just curious, if those conversations with the networks have started for you or with Apple in general? That's the first question. The second is just clarification on the Media General process, is it possible that you can have conversations with them now, are we just waiting for their response to your offer, we're just trying to figure out what the actual next step is? And then the third question is bigger picture, let's assume that you hit the 39% cap sooner rather than later, we're getting asked what your longer-term free cash flow strategy might be? Would you pursue something like Sinclair where you start diversifying into maybe cable networks or would you think about returning a lot of incremental free cash flow to shareholders? Thank you. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Let me start with the first here, as it relates to CBS and Apple TV, I think those conversations, I don't want to speak for CBS, but I think they are continuing. And I think as far as CBS is concerned or any of these new entrants, CBS All Access will be the delivery mechanism, which again is, if they are adopted in our markets, we receive a piece of the downstream revenue. But again, I think if you look at CBS All Access and Sony and Apple, and all of these things, I think they're – in my view they're on the margin and probably slightly additive, I don't see any of them moving the needle. And I think, if you look at the results of the MVPDs at this point, the cord-cutting, hand-wringing…

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, you bet. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we have Michael Kupinski from Noble Financial, next. Please go ahead.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Thank you, and congratulations on your quarter. I just have – most of my questions have been answered, but I wanted to get a little bit more clarity on the pacing in advertising, and in particular, the variance in the quarter between local and national, if you can be so kind to kind of giving some idea, what the trends have been there? Obviously, many broadcasters indicated that August started off a little slow, but then strengthened, I was just wondering, if you can give me some color on that in particular national, and then how the variances are heading into the fourth quarter? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. I think as we look to third quarter, local was up little less than 1%, national was up in the mid single-digits. But I think you also have to remember, that in the third quarter last year, we had in excess of $80 million of political that would affect price-sensitive national advertising more than local advertising. So I think, if displacement occurs, it occurs more at the national level than local level. So a lower base happiness is a low base to comp again. So I think, there were some of that going on. And again, all-in as Tom said it was 1.8% increase in core revenue, again in line with our GDP-like forecast.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

And the trends in terms of the fourth quarter, how do the variances between local and national look? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: They are not statistically significant at this point. Again, we are just into the first month of the quarter, and there's not enough variance that you could call it a variance at this point.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And from Evercore, we have Tracy Young. Please go ahead.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Yeah, hi. I just wanted to confirm Tom; you mentioned that fixed expenses were up 3.5% for the quarter, is that right? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That is correct.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of retrans, you had a nice bump in the quarter; what should we think, or could you remind us what we should expect in terms of subscribers that are coming up the remainder of this year, next year, and what we should think in terms of a net retrans margin? Thanks. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Well, as I think we've said before, 40% of our subscribers re-price this year, and another 45% next year. Having said that, approximately half of those 2015 re-pricings have already occurred; they occurred at mid-year. That's part of the growth engine driver for the third quarter results. And as it relates to net retrans, it continues exceed 50%. I don't want to get much more detailed than that, but obviously we continue to be pleased with it. And the growth in retrans revenue continues to be robust, more than enough to offset any expenses that we're incurring on the revenue side – or on the affiliate side.

Tracy Young - Evercore Group LLC

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next we have Davis Hebert from Wells Fargo Securities.

Davis Hebert - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Just a clarification on retrans, Tom. The $80 million we saw in Q3, is it fair to say we should see a similar run rate in the fourth quarter? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes, there shouldn't be any meaningful variations.

Davis Hebert - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And I'm not sure if it's something you track, but your leverage number you gave is on an LTM basis, I believe, so I'm not sure if you have like a two-year average number? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I haven't calculated it yet, but we usually do that in conjunction when we start to deliver our statements to the rating agencies. They seem to be interested in that, even though it's not that applicable to us.

Davis Hebert - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And then regarding the commentary on digital being, I guess a little bit below expectations, just curious how you're thinking about the digital M&A pipeline? I know it's something you've commented on in the past as being an interest from an inorganic standpoint? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I would say – it's kind of the bifurcation. The local business for us continues to be very robust, and I think that's where we continue to have the greatest degree of interest. Our local station and community portal websites continue to perform very well. LAKANA, which is more of the services business, the recurring revenue, white-labeling of the product continues to be robust. We continue to add new clients there, other websites. Where we've seen any softness, as Perry had mentioned, was in the national market, ones where there has been some fulfillment and some traffic issues there in terms of, are real people seeing these ads, et cetera. I think,we saw a pull back there in the third quarter, but we've seen a recovery early on in October and the trends look better for the rest of the year. So I would say – long-winded answer – I would say our interest continued to be strong, but more robust around the local markets than the national markets, and I think that's consistent with our overall operating philosophy. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would just add to that, that as it relates to Yashi, we've taken steps as – to prove and improve the quality of the inventory that we offer to monetize. We're in the process of setting up our own private exchange, which is where a lot of that business is going, to eliminate…

Davis Hebert - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, that's really helpful color. Thank you. And then last question, I know it's early to talk about financing strategies for Media General since it's – I guess still you haven't entered exclusive negotiations, but Tom, I wonder if you could talk about, given the transformational kind of deal this is, your commitment to your credit ratings? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. No, I think we're very committed to our credit ratings. Having said that, the financing is the tactics that are driven by the strategy, where as you pointed out, we're still trying to engender engagement from Media General at this point to get much more granular than that at without a transaction to respond to. I can't solve for something that I don't know what the transaction looks like yet, just from a – from an overall financing requirement perspective. So, yes, we think about it. We have some initial thoughts, it's just all of those are subject to whatever transaction may or may not occur, and it's a little bit of the cart before the horse at this point, but clearly we're mindful of our credit ratings, we've done, we worked long and hard to improve our credit ratings, and that will definitely be part of the decision metrics.

Davis Hebert - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

And we move on to our next question, is Barry Lucas from Gabelli & Company. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Thank you, and good morning. I want to come back to the auto category, Perry, and this may seem like beating the dead horse, but with a SAR rate above 17 million units, the auto category feels a little bit anemic for traditional media companies, and it certainly feels like more dollars are moving to social media or to TrueCar and AutoTrader and Cars.com. So just kind of specifically, could you give us a feel of where order was a percentage of core advertising as today, and what that might have been a year ago, where the weaknesses were as you talked about General Motors being strong, and how do you kind of resuscitate the category or can you at this juncture? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, automotive continues to represent about 24% of our ad supported revenue, and that is up ever, I think, ever so slightly versus ad supported revenue a year ago. This is on television as I'm speaking. And obviously in the third quarter, there was a pullback in spending from Toyota for obvious reasons. I had the chance to sit next to the Vice President of Finance for Toyota North America at an event the other day, he says, now their factories are running at full capacity here in the United States. And so, I think that what – and our conversation was, what I'm hearing from dealers is, business is very good right now, they don't need – feel the need to advertising more than they're advertising, and in fact may be putting some of the incremental cash into their pockets or to pay off some…

Operator

Operator

And we'll take our next question from Jim Goss from Barrington Research. Please go ahead

James c Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. I have a question, one more, sort of related to either M&A or organic growth, but to the extent that, say, you are successful with the Media General acquisition and your reach then approaches fairly sizable share of the country. Does that create a greater interest on your part in getting involved in original programming to the extent that even though as a network affiliate, you have a lot of the programming provided, but is that one more opportunity that you've a greater chance of having an impact, and either individually or in partnership with another broadcaster perhaps, in getting above in the entertainment side of the business? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Jim. I would say that, again, as I said earlier as it related to digital or national cable networks, our focus is local. So if we've the opportunity to add additional programming, it will be locally focused. We produce 79,000 hours a year of local news, as it stands right now. The idea of creating a national program that looks a little bit local and partnering with other broadcaster to distribute that, that's not really our strength or anything we're particularly interested in. So I think, our identity is our local news, brand in our local marketplaces. We would look to expand that, but I have very little interest in national syndicated programming that we help the deficit fund, that's just not anything that really moves the needle for us. And as you pointed out, with the vast majority of our stations being NBC, CBS or ABC there's very little room on the schedule or need for that kind of programming. So I think leave syndication to the syndication companies, and we'll focus our efforts on expanding our footprints locally.

James c Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And one last thing, in terms of the UHF discount you said, still exits, but yet, Tribune was the one group that crossed the magic 39% mark. And it seemed like they needed a waiver, so I'm a little bit confused on whether there has been any movement or anything along the UHF discount issue that is either a current or prospective threat? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'm not aware of Tribune needing a waiver, and that transaction took place several years ago, so I'll have to defer it to the legal and FCC experts on that. But UHF discount still is on the books and exists, despite discussions or ideas floated that perhaps it should be eliminated, and then there are also discussions on whether there should be a VHF discount, or maybe we should raise the cap in conjunction with all of this. I think the message that you see, on these kind of à la carte pieces of regulation, particularly from Congress, and again this is on both sides of the aisle, as you need to step back, FCC take a complete look at all regulations, rather than picking one from Column A and one from Column B, that you either like or you don't like. And I think that is the trend, and that is the tenure, certainly in Congress as the way they like to see things go. Having said that, I see press is little getting done in the next 12 months as we are today, one year from the 2016 general election. So, I'm not sure much policy will be made in the next 12 months.

James c Goss - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

All right. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions in our queue, and I'd like to pass things over to Perry Sook for any closing and additional remarks. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well again, thank you all for joining us here today. As I mentioned, we are indeed one year from the 2016 general election, and our excitement regarding the political process, but most importantly the political revenue continues to grow with each passing day. We look forward to coming back to you in first quarter to talk about our Q4 results, and update our outlook on 2016. Thanks again, everyone. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's presentation and we appreciate everyone's participation.