Earnings Labs

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2015

$203.29

-0.74%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+4.06%

1 Week

+2.56%

1 Month

-15.46%

vs S&P

-10.22%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Nexstar Broadcasting Group's 2015 Second Quarter Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. All statements and comments made by management during this conference, other than statements of historical fact, may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21-A of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. The company's future financial conditions and results of operations, as well as forward-looking statements are subject to change. The forward-looking statements and comments made during the conference call are made only as of the date of today's conference call. Management will also be discussing non-GAAP information during this call. In compliance with Regulation G, reconciliations of this non-GAAP information to GAAP measurements are included in today's news announcement. The company does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements reflective of changes in circumstances. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Nexstar President and CEO, Perry Sook. Please go ahead. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for joining us in what I'm sure is a very busy day for you all to discuss Nexstar's record second quarter result, which reflects both organic growth and the benefits being realized from our recently completed accretive transactions. As always, Tom Carter, our CFO, is sitting here with me this morning. Nexstar's consistent operating momentum and financial growth was evident in the second quarter as we delivered another period of record financial results with net revenue, BCF, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow again exceeding analysts' consensus expectations. Contributions from recently completed acquisitions, organic core advertising growth, distribution and digital media revenue growth and our focus on managing operations for…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. . We'll first hear from John Janedis of Jefferies.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Perry, I'm sure at this point you've seen the headlines from some of the media conglomerates this week. There's obviously pressure in the broader industry in terms of the media stocks. But on a practical level, what are the rates raised to you or to Nexstar from either a shrinking pay-TV universe or rise of skinny bundles? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think, first of all, it's important to differentiate that we are not a cable network and that I believe that we are and will continue to be a part of every skinny bundle, evidence the comments made by Apple and Sony and Sling just over the last week here. We have pretty perfect information on our sub count as we get paid on those sub counts every month. And we have seen no material degradation in our sub counts literally over the past year. And so I don't believe that the sky is falling. I like our chances in the skinny bundle because that means we have fewer competitors on dial and we will continue to be the most viewed sources local broadcast television station in an MVPD household and that number even would grow with a skinnier bundle because you don't have 500 choices you may have 15. So I think that the – we're in a slightly different business than national cable and I believe that we will be on every skinny bundle package going forward. I'm not sure you can say the same for ESPN or Viacom or Discovery networks. Those will be the choices of the MVPDs.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Well, thanks for that. And then maybe a related topic, given you mentioned a reference to Apple. From an opportunity from the OTT players, how do they see the value of local news and is there any kind of benefit for you to allow the networks to negotiate on your behalf in terms of fees? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think this will all become a moot point if all of these new entrants are classified as MVPDs which we believe to be likely prior to the end of this year and then there will be one more distributor for us to talk to. While we're in this interim period, the networks have expressed some interest in taking the wheel and negotiating, but it's still, whether they negotiate or we negotiate, if the networks are negotiating on our behalf, which we would then have to opt in or opt out to that deal. So the networks cannot bind us to any of those deals. And I think we will take the same measure of the value proposition whether we will be negotiating it ourself or the networks. There is really – I don't think there is any benefit to the network negotiating on our behalf because it's still is an individual decision made and again we have been in touch with both Apple and Sony and had conversations with them. I'm not even sure it's their preference to negotiate with the networks. I think they would just like to get something done and the established process seems to get something done. So I think we'll see how it all plays out, but I think they've all been desirous of carrying the local stations as part of any package that they put forth.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay, and maybe one last quick one then thanks. It sounds like the length of your retrans deals are somewhere maybe the two year to three year range now on average, but with the rapidly changing environment, do you think you reduce risk to Nexstar by shortening or maybe lengthening those deals? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We still believe that shorter is better because the market continues to evolve. In other conversations we've had is like if you want to add the third year there is a rate for that and if you're willing to. I don't think we're leaving anything on the table if we agree on the rates that we're willing to agree to. So I don't see risk because we are still so far below the value proposition we bring to the bundle and the value we receive vis-à-vis payments out of the bundle. So I continue to believe and, John, I said this for the last six months or so that retrans revenue for local broadcast stations is the last great secular play in the media business and I think it continues on for another half a dozen years at least.

John Janedis - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks so much, Perry.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll hear from Marci Ryvicker of Wells Fargo.

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. I may have missed this, so I apologize as I watch these stocks just continue to get hammered, but can you talk about your underlying core trends in the second quarter and how we should think about core local progress through the year as you comp against political, I would assume that core would continue to accelerate? And then the second question is what we've been hearing from the traditional media companies is kind of a consistent theme that their digital is coming in below expectations. You actually have done really well with your e-media, so what are you doing differently to show growth that your peers can't seem to get? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'll answer the core revenue. In second quarter, if I look on our top 10 categories, which make up approximately three quarters of our total ad supported revenue on our television stations, we had five categories that were up. Three of those were up in excess of 20%. We had two categories that were flat, which were auto and paid, and then we had three categories that were down, none down more than 8%, so that's pretty much an average quarter. And as I think I reported earlier in my comments, our core revenue on a same-station basis was up 2%. And we continue to focus on new business development that's the way we bonus and commission and new business revenue made up about 8%, 8.5% of our total local revenue for the second quarter. So I think we continue to be proactive there. As I look toward, third quarter revenue trends, while we don't give guidance. I can tell you that at this point we are projecting seven of our top 10 categories to be up for…

Marci L. Ryvicker - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll hear from James Dix, Wedbush Securities.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning gentlemen. A couple of questions. I guess, first any updated thoughts on the M&A pipeline and then maybe this is related, but thoughts on how the auction might be shaping up for you or people you might be talking to as potential M&A candidates, but also, in particular, your thoughts and I have one followup? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, James. As of this morning we have a handful of active NDAs and we have a couple of active LOIs and so NDAs don't always turned into LOIs and LOIs don't always turn into purchase agreements because we're very disciplined on the diligence side and if it's not accretive, we just don't go forward, but there is activity going on and we're just running our normal process and playbook. And in none of those discussion has spectrum been a leading issue or no one has asked for the "schmuck insurance," of, well, I'll tell you the stations that I want a call option on a percentage of your spectrum proceeds that's just – I think for people in the know that have profitable broadcast television stations, they see that as a low probability and would probably want to sell on the rumor of the auction rather than news of the auction particularly if the auction proceeds end up being underwhelming or the auction itself has some problems, all of which are within the range of outcomes. I mean, we know what the Greenhill book is for all of our station assets, but I don't think that's anything other than a marketing number. I think we've said realistically in our company we could – our proceeds from the spectrum auction could be anywhere between zero and $300 million, realistically. And I could not assess at this point without more information a higher probability to zero or $300 million or any number between. We just don't have enough information at this point. Obviously, we will look at it and if we are able to sell spectrum assets at a premium to what those assets are worth as operating businesses, as good fiduciaries we would do that, if it's a significant premium. And if not, we will stand pat and keep those mineral rights to ourselves for future opportunity in development. So our position on the auction hasn't changed. So think we'd be very – I take a very sober look at it. But, we, again, believe that the best use of our spectrum would be some sort of a recurring revenue model or leasing model rather than a one-time return of capital liquidation event. And our bias is still toward operating businesses rather than selling businesses.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. And then just one thing, in terms of – you've laid out some pretty good visibility on the retrans side, if you can just refresh a recollection on the phasing of your major affiliation renewals? I know you had some with CBS. I just want to see over the next – for 2015-2016, do you have any material renewals? And then I guess just related to that, would you say that within the period of your two-year guide that, if anything, the net retrans component is looking higher than it might have maybe when you first gave that 2015-2016 guide? Thanks. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We have at this point no affiliation renewals between now and the end of 2016. We did a little clean up trade with one of the big four networks where we had some recent acquisitions that were a little off of our timetable, so we have perfect visibility on the expense side and we think very good visibility on the revenue side based on a deal we just did with a top five MVPD that, quite frankly, came in a little bit above where we had even modeled it internally. So there are no unknowns on the expense side at this point. We have a 100% visibility on our renewals. And again, the way the renewal waterfall is falling, our FOX affiliates are up at the end of 2016, none before then; our ABC affiliates are up at the end of 2017; at the end of 2018 is CBS; but then we have at least five CBS affiliates that will now go through the middle of 2020; and at the end of 2019 will be our NBC affiliates that were done back last year. We're also currently in discussions to renew our CW affiliates on a five-year deal. As you know we don't pay any kind of reverse retrans there. There are some programming fees, but they're not significant and we anticipate getting that done here before the end of the quarter.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So am I to read that your net retrans component, if anything, is looking even better within the period of your guide just based, if nothing, on your most recent deal? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We have not updated any of our guidance as it relates to that, but we'll just say we're pleased.

James G. Dix - Wedbush Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, fair enough. Thanks very much. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: And, James, just as an explanation point on that. We've said before and we will continue to say, our net retrans both revenue and margins will increase in 2015 and increase in 2016 and we will still stand behind that statement.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll hear from Michael Kupinski of Noble Financial.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Thank you and congratulations on your quarter. I would assume that with growth in service advertising category that the auto category is less important to the company over the years and you indicated that was kind of flat in the quarter. I was just wondering what is auto as a percent of total revenues this year versus last year? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I want to say, it's between – it's right around 24% this year and it's approximately that or maybe slightly higher in previous years.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Our all time high contribution from auto as a percent of television ad revenue was 27% and we're just slightly below 24% as percent of television ad revenue now.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Got it. And in terms of the auto category in the quarter, did you see any disruptions in like Tier 2 auto co-op advertising on a local level? I understand that some foreign manufacturers appear to have cut back on co-op advertising and I was wondering if you were seeing an impact from dealerships related to that. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, I look at our individual dealer spending and it continues to be robust. I think what happened in the second quarter from my perspective, that there were some pretty substantial jumps in May and June and in the SaaR rate. And as you know the dealers don't get their co-op money until they sell a unit. So the revenue coming from the selling of those units hasn't caught up with the fact that the units – sales were probably above expectation in May and June, so the dollars per car allocated to advertising hadn't developed yet, so that's why I think you would say hey the SaaR grew faster than the auto grew. I think it was for the reason that there was unanticipated growth there, and we'll see how that settles out as we move forward here. Some dealers that I've talked to said business is pretty good right now and I'm not increasing my advertising spending. I'm using some of the – that excess cash flow to pay for these very expensive showroom remodels that I've had to do over the last couple of years, so there could be some of that going on. But we see the automotive category, the SaaR approaching its all-time high is in the 17 million unit range. And I think what you'll see there is particularly among some of the Japanese nameplates who have lost share as this growth has occurred, due to recalls or product issues, aggressively spend to try and recapture that share. Again, that's speculation on my part, but if history is any guide, that would be the behavior that we would see once SaaR begins to be kind of a steady state. And then there will also be new model introductions every fall and those tend to drive brand advertising at the top of the purchase funnel.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

So the dealerships that are trying to capture margin in the very near-term, but that's probably going to change because it's going to be lot more competitive and like you said, more models coming to the market that we'll start to see probably late in the third quarter a little acceleration in auto? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes if I look at automotive for second quarter, both the automotive ad spend from manufacturing dealer groups was approximately flat. An again – and that represented two-thirds of our auto category spending, our local dealer spending was 44% of our total ad category and it was also flat. So we did not see a disparity of dealers looking at Tier 2 versus Tier 3 money in the quarter. And again, for all the reasons you cited, I could see those – once you paid off your mortgage, you don't have to pay anymore on it, so maybe that money will come back into advertising. And we're out there with both digital and on-air products to try and capture – and when you go to a local auto dealer, at least in our markets, they don't have a budget for digital newspaper, direct mail, I mean they have one advertising budget per month. And you have to make sure you have the best ideas, because if the radio guy comes in with a better idea, there is going to be less money left for you. So we encourage our sellers and our sales managers and our general managers to stay in front of these auto dealers. Ideas are the currency and make sure that you're competing with the rest of your market because if they buy pens with their names on it that comes out of the ad budget and we just have to be there with the best ideas every month and we focus locally on that and the dealer money we compete that's all agency money from the Tier 2 group. We compete for that very aggressively as well, but when we can put our arms around the local dealer and say I've got a great idea how to see sell 20 pickup trucks by Labor Day, if he likes the idea, we agree on a price, and then we go execute for him and that's the kind of sticky business we would like to maintain.

Michael A. Kupinski - Noble Financial Capital Markets

Analyst

Got it. Thanks for your color. I appreciate that. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You bet.

Operator

Operator

Dan Kurnos of Benchmark Company.

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

Not a heck of a lot for me to ask at this point, but maybe you guys can give us a little bit of color if you didn't on the length of the affiliation deal that you just did with CBS. And I know Perry you talked about it briefly in terms of John's question on OTT, but was there any component of OTT embedded in that deal? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: The length of our deal with CBS was a multiyear agreement taking us out into 2020, so I think you could figure out the length there. And as to OTT, no, I mean, those discussions are still in the very early stages and none of this works have really address that specifically and – well, I should say two of the networks have – we've had conversations with about certain of these new entrants. And two of the networks we had no conversations with, so it's in various stages of development at every step along the way. We continue to believe though that ultimately these things will be classified as MVPDs and then the protocol will be very clearly established.

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

All right, it's little bit different from what Sinclair conversations with CBS, but in terms of digital then, Perry, just on the thoughts, maybe if you could parse out and maybe I'm asking for too much granularity sort of the performance between the acquired products and organic growth and how you think about the differential and sort of your O&O properties versus maybe third-party marketing assets that you own and just the margin trends within the digital business over time how you expect them to pace and how rapidly you could expand them? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, sure, Tom reported that on a same-station basis our legacy, media properties, our digital media revenue was up 13% in the quarter and then obviously to get from 13% to 60%, the remainder would be the contributions from the acquisitions. Is that responsive to your question?

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

Sort of, I really wanted to kind of break out more just in terms of organic website growth versus a marketing growth and also margin trends particularly within both categories as you kind of accelerate growth across your entire digital portfolio. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, well, again organic website growth is the 13% grower because that's... Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That's what we've owned for more than a year. The recent acquisitions obviously are in the acquired properties, which we haven't owned for a year. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Right. And you know every one of the acquired properties had a very de minimis digital presence and that will ramp up, but that will take time. We have to hire sellers and sales managers and train them up and so the contribution of revenue, I think I look at our one of our recently acquired stations, their budget for the month was $2,000 while have stations that do $1 million a year in digital revenue that we've owned for a while. But the vast majority of the difference between the 13% and the 60% was from our acquisition of Yashi and the performance of LAKANA that we have rolled together. As to margins, I mean you look at the services business which Yashi and LAKANA are, those are lower margin businesses, but they are fee-for- service and contracted revenue type businesses and so that would necessitate a lower margin. Our ad supported revenue at the local market level that comes from digital operates with a margin that is in line if not greater than what we generate on the television stations. Having said that the local content that we use to seed those websites locally, we don't inter-company have charged there. It's just part of the operations of the business. But our local margins are in the 40% range and the service company margins are less than that, but not substantially less than that.

Dan L. Kurnos - The Benchmark Co. LLC

Analyst

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next we'll hear from Tracy Young, Evercore.

Tracy Beth Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Yes. Just two followup questions. On the auto business, did you have any exposure to Honda and what percentage might that have been of your revenues? Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Honda for the month was – for the quarter, second quarter, was flat to the prior year at approximately $2 million of revenue Q2 2015 versus Q2 2014.

Tracy Beth Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Okay. And then you free cash flow guide obviously stay the same. Are you just considering that you be in Q2 just trying to be conservative. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well it's a two year guide and 2016 hasn't happened yet, I mean you could take our guide and add our beats to it on a quarterly basis if you want but we're probably not going to do that. I mean, we will refresh our guide most likely when we announce an acquisition and contribute that and take other factors in but, Tom, I don't know if you want to speak to that, but there is a few quarters in and six quarters left to go in that and given the stock performance this week, I'm not sure that we get paid for increasing our guide today anyway. Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, if you think about free cash flow, we haven't changed our year – our total year CapEx even though our CapEx in the second quarter came in light. I mean, if we wanted – I think consensus was roughly $70 million in EBITDA and we came in at $74 million and change. Am I going to change my free cash flow guidance by $4 million because I beat EBITDA by $4 million in the second quarter? I'm only going to do it when it's meaningful and 1% increase or a half – 2% increase in my free cash flow isn't worth doing that. We're going to do it in more of a stair-step fashion.

Tracy Beth Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Okay, thank you very much. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: But I think typically we would refresh our guidance going into a New Year, once we start 2016 we would give 2016, 2017 guidance and you could take it from that what you will probably but – and again, if we announce an acquisition, which we feel that is likely to happen before year end, then I think that's an opportunity to refresh our guide as well.

Tracy Beth Young - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll hear from Barry Lucas of Gabelli & Company. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Thank you and good morning. Two areas, Tom, would you have a reasonable pro forma political for 2012 and 2014 that we could benchmark against and handicap? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I have one, we haven't publicly disclosed that. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Okay, second area I think you put the probability or possibility that you would be at 3.0 leverage at the end of 2016 all other things being equal, which we know they're not and the likelihood of the Nexstar getting down to 3.0 times seems fairly slim, so what would you think is a reasonable leverage to maintain going forward in a rising rate environment, however you want to think about the macro? Thomas E. Carter - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, I think we've been pretty public about this. In an acquisition environment, I think you could expect us to be somewhere in the high four's to five times on a blended basis. In a non-acquisition environment, I think it's going to be something less than four times on a blended basis. Barry L. Lucas - Gabelli & Company: Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to our presenters for any additional or closing comments. Perry A. Sook - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, operator, I appreciate everyone's time and interest and we look forward to coming back in 90 days to report on our third quarter results and our perspective on the fourth quarter and into 2016. So, thanks again for your time this morning. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today's conference, thank you all for your participation.