William Doyle
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Okay, David. Belarus, we know there's obviously an inflow there. We've actually seen some videos of the inflow. From what we've seen so far, it doesn't seem to be anything that they can't manage from pumping. There's a long history in this business of inflows, and the ability of the industry to manage inflows has gotten better over the years. So as of this moment, we don't see any major impact there. It's something to keep your eye on because water in a potash mine is a very hard thing to predict. And whether it's saturated brine or fresh water, all these conditions are ones that can have a big impact. I would tell you that the world can't afford it, that mine is a 2.3 million tonne mine. We're already tight as tight can be. We're going to be supply constrained this year. Most people don't realize that even yet, that there's going to be supply constraint. We will sell everything that's produced this year globally. And there will be more demand. And this is why if you look at India, that market is probably going to be -- 4 million tonnes supplied to India would be my guess at this moment. That is if they conclude, which will be down from 6 million tonnes, 6.3 million tonnes last year, which is going to put tremendous pressure on 2012 because they've got to catch up, because the agronomic need is growing. It's not being reduced. So we can't afford Belarus to have any serious problem. And I can tell you amongst miners, there's a couple things that we feel a fraternity about. And one is safety. If we ever have a fire in a mine, I mean, here in Saskatchewan, Mosaic had a fire a few years back, and our people were there fast going down to help rescue their people, that we know they'd send their folks over to help us, as well as Agrium. So there's a fraternity there that we really care about the safety of our people. And the other thing is that if we have inflows, we help each other. When Rocanville had its inflow in the early '80s, IMC at that time sent over a bunch of their pumping equipment. When Esterhazy had the problem there in December 1985, PCS, even as Crown corporation at that time, sent over their pumping equipment. So there's -- no one wants to see that, not on the producer side. And by God, the market can't afford it.