Paul J. Sarvadi
Analyst · SunTrust
Thank you, Richard. Today, I'll provide a brief update on several initiatives focused on accelerating revenue growth in 2014. I'll also dedicate a considerable portion of my time explaining community rating for small businesses under health care reform and the sticker shock we expect to drive customers our way very soon. I will begin, however, by explaining factors which have caused a shortfall in paid worksite employees for the last half of 2013. The primary drivers falling below our expectations on our worksite employees in Q3 and rolling into Q4 were: number one, a lag in converting worksite employees sold into paid worksite employees; and number two, a soft spot in hiring we have seen in our client base. 2 of the 3 months this past quarter, the net change in new hires versus layoffs was negative. We previously budgeted a small tailwind from hiring at the rate we were experiencing in the first half of the year. The cumulative effect of this reversal compounds over the balance of the year and accounts for about 35% of the shortfall. This soft spot in hiring is consistent with survey results from our client base we reported today and other recent reports about hiring in the small business community at large. Therefore, we have adjusted our forecast to reflect weak hiring through year end. The second factor relates to the timing of enrollment of sold accounts as sales activity ramped up in Q3. We achieved a 102% of our sales targets in the quarter. However, 50% of the total were sold in September as growth in the number of new trained Business Performance Advisors began to contribute to sales. Unfortunately, the later in the year sales occur, the more likely accounts will schedule their start date of January 1 of the coming year. In addition, we sold a large mid-market account in July that was originally scheduled to start in September, which was delayed to January. The good news is these employees are added to an impressive pipeline we're building for our all-important year end transition, which leads to the starting point in paid worksite employees in January 2014. At this time last year, we had approximately 4,000 employees in the queue sold and scheduled to be paid by January, compared to over 6,200 today, an increase of 55%. In addition, our most recent information on activity associated with our fall selling campaign is very good. Since the kickoff, the number of discovery calls, which are initial face-to-face meetings with prospects, and the number of the business profiles, which provide the information necessary to bid Workforce Optimization, are increasing on pace to hit our campaign target. As we stand today, our number of potential worksite employees within current outstanding bids is up 18% over this time last year, reflecting the ramp-up in Business Performance Advisors. This number includes a solid increase from both mid-market and core sales teams and provides some nice momentum for our fall selling season. As expected, we achieved our goal increasing the number of trained Business Performance Advisors, an average of 302 for the third quarter, a 28% increase since the beginning of the year. This is the centerpiece of our growth plan for 2014. Historically, growth acceleration follows a ramp-up in advisors within the 12- to 18-month training cycle for this position. In fact, the lag I just discussed reflects the decline in advisors over the last half of last year, while we retrained and retooled the sales organizations on our new selling system. In addition to growing the number of advisors, we are working on 4 other drivers to accelerate growth next year. They are: number one, growing our SaaS and other adjacent businesses; number two, refining our mid-market sales and service as a result of the ongoing pilot program; number three, developing substantial channel programs; and number four, capitalizing on the disruption of health care reform. Our efforts to grow revenues and gross profit contribution from our SaaS and other adjacent business services are progressing very well and point toward a strong 2014. This quarter, the gross profit contribution from the portfolio grew 40% and SaaS seats grew at the same 40% rate on a year-over-year basis. The gross profit per worksite employee per month is a good representation of how these businesses flow into our overall business model. Last quarter, this metric reached $15 compared to $11 last year. This 36% increase points to the traction we are gaining in our adjacent businesses and the potential to contribute substantially to gross profit in the future. Last quarter, I introduced our pilot program in our mid-market segment, expanding our offerings to include a total of 4 bundled HR solutions. We have continued to test these solutions in sales and retention of clients to approximately 150 employees and greater. Early indicators are very good that we have solutions that resonate with these customers that could dramatically improve our results in this segment. We've already saved accounts that we're considering termination and have a growing pipeline of new opportunities for these new offerings. Although we've had some good early response, it remains to be seen how much our year-end transition will be affected by this new pilot program. However, since the pilot is completed at year end, we will refine our messaging and organize resources in order to attack the mid-market opportunity in 2013. Another growth initiative for 2014 is an emphasis on channel marketing and sales programs. Our suitability as a channel partner has been greatly enhanced by the wide array of business performance solutions we now offer. Since we have grown the sales staff and have our adjacent business ready to scale, effective channel partnerships can raise all shifts together. Our corporate general strategy will be a primarily focused on 4 key verticals, including accounting, technology, banking and a category which includes chambers, trade organizations and HR and insurance professions. Much of the foundational work to organize and execute on this strategy has been completed and our capability to develop a strong lead flow to channels should help accelerate growth in 2014. The last major growth initiative for 2014 that I would like to address today is capitalizing on imminent health care reform changes in the small business marketplace. Tremendous opportunity for Insperity is on the immediate horizon due to the implementation of mandatory community rating. Small business group plans, policies effective from January 1, 2014, forward will be subject to community rating pricing requirements under the Affordable Care Act. Insurers will no longer be able to use drivers of cost to price the coverage, such as health claims experience and gender. In addition, the range in the difference companies can charge for factors they can consider, like age and tobacco use, will generally narrow from a range of 8:1 to 3:1. This is exactly the dynamic we've all been hearing about all week, resulting in sticker shock in the individual market, which also requires community rating under the ACA. The younger, healthier individuals are seeing dramatic increases in coverage cost and scrambling to seek alternative. This dynamic is about to play out in the small business community for employers of 50 or fewer employees and will be expanded to 100 and fewer employees in 2016. So beginning this month and continuing for the next couple of years, our most attractive prospects from a benefits risk perspective will be receiving the increases in health care costs that may exceed the entire cost of our premium service. It is likely a large segment of our target market will be able to add our comprehensive services and eliminate the complexity and compliance of health care reform for less than the price increase they will receive from their carriers. Insperity is uniquely positioned to benefit from offering our Workforce Optimization solution to small businesses and get the most for the money they will now be required to spend. A magnitude of this change is just beginning to emerge, as seen in the first of what I believe will be many articles on this subject, as insurers get past the early renewals they have moved into 2013 to avoid passing on the increases. Last week, several benefits advisors commented on the expected impact of community rating on their client base. And one estimated 75% to 80% of their small business clients will see increases between 30% and 105%. Although estimates vary and the exact numbers are not available, I believe approximately 60% of small businesses will see an increase of over 20%. But whether it's 30%, 50%, or 70%, it will still be a very large number of highly motivated prospects for Insperity. We are responding to this opportunity by positioning Insperity as a resource for businesses to deal with the complexity, compliance and now the cost of health care reform. Yesterday, we announced the introduction of Pulse Check, which is now available on our website. Pulse Check is an interactive health care reform assessment tool specifically designed to help business leaders understand and prepare for the impact of the Affordable Care Act. In addition, we have provided new information on our site regarding the community rating change in 2014. This information will help our Business Performance Advisors explain the coming price increases that are about to hit the marketplace. During the third quarter, we also trained sales staff on the coming impact of community rating, and we are ready to react as this change is implemented. It's hard to predict how significant this could be to our growth next year. But I could not have devised a better way to get the attention of our most attractive prospects to seek a better solution. I also cannot imagine an offering better than Insperity Workforce Optimization to solve the health care reform-driven problems for small business. In conclusion, let me just say we are disappointed in recent health claim levels and the lower worksite employee growth over the last half of the year and the associated lower earnings expectations. However, none of these short-term factors change our outlook for 2014 and beyond in any way. We are in a strong position to return to double-digit unit growth in the typical 12- to 18-month period following a double-digit growth in Business Performance Advisors. If we have a great fall campaign, the growth acceleration will be earlier in 2014. If the campaign is not as successful as we'd like, it will be later next year. Either way, we are excited about our growth prospects for 2014. At this point, I'll turn the call back over to Doug.