John Kline
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead
Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Since our last call in May, the overall investing environment across most asset classes has continued to be challenging. We have seen higher interest rates, inflation, geopolitical instability, and now tangible evidence of economic softness in certain area of the economy. Through this period, corporate direct lending continues to be one of the most resilient asset classes across all financial markets. Floating base rates, attractive spreads, secured debt structures, and low loan to value ratios have provided investors with valuable stability and otherwise difficult investing environment. Additionally, our strategy of making loans to non-cyclical defensive businesses provides added margin of safety compared to that of the overall lending market. While new deal activity remains materially lower than the latter half of 2021, we continue to see compelling investment opportunities in a market where spreads are at least 100 basis points wider than they were at the beginning of the year. The deal structures of most new direct loan investments remain attractive with sponsor equity contributions consistently in the 60% to 80% range. Finally, it is important to highlight that the overall direct lending market continues to take meaningful share from the syndicated loan and high yield bond asset classes as our private financing solutions offer an ease of execution, price clarity and capital certainty that is not currently available in these other markets. Page 14 represents an interest rate analysis that provides insight into the positive effect of increasing base rates on NMFCs earnings. As a reminder, the NMFC loan portfolio is 89% floating rate and 11% fixed rate while our liabilities are 54% fixed rate and 46% floating rate. Given this capital structure mix, we are long LIBOR and thus have material positive exposure to increasing rates. During to Q2 three-month LIBOR increased from about 1% on April 1 to about 2.3% on June 30. It is worth noting that many of our borrowers locked in LIBOR early in the second quarter at lower rates, while our floating rate liabilities continue to reset throughout the quarter. Given these circumstances, base rates were not a tailwind during the second quarter. However, as our loans reset at current base rates, the portfolio yield will begin to improve. While each of our borrowers have slightly different timing for rate resets and make slightly different choices regarding the duration of their LIBOR or SOFR contracts, we think it's valuable to provide a rough sensitivity around the earnings power of the portfolio at various static base rates. For example, on a go forward basis, if base rate settings averaged 2%, NMFC's annual net investment income will increase by $0.04 per share all other variables being equal. At 3%, LIBORs NMFC's run rate earnings power would be approximately 11% higher, representing an incremental $0.14 cents per share. Meanwhile, given the presence of LIBOR floors on our assets, which averaged 89 basis points, the NII downside if rates decline remains limited. This positive interest rate optionality continues to offer our shareholders material potential return enhancement and provides an attractive hedge against rising rates and general inflation. Turning to Page 15, we present more detail behind the $0.14 per share decline in our book value this quarter. Starting on the left side of the page, we show that credit driven fair value changes resulted in a net NAV increase of $0.13 per share from Q1 to Q2. This net increase was supported by positive credit catalysts for Haven and Integro and good underlying performance at UniTek, Permian and Edmentum. Our remaining portfolio experienced $0.27 per share of depreciation that the vast majority of which is represented by write downs associated with general spread widening in the overall credit market. Page 16 addresses NMFC's long-term credit performance since its inception. On the left side of the page, we show the current state of the portfolio where we have 3.3 billion of investments at fair value with 45 million or less than 1.5% of our portfolio currently on non-accrual. As mentioned earlier, we did put both NHME and a portion of Integro second lien on non-accrual, which represent only 10.9 million or 0.3% of our current book value. NMFC's cumulative credit performance shown on the right side of the page remains strong. Since our inception in 2008, we have made 9.6 billion of total investments, of which only 306 million have been placed on non-accrual. Of the non-accruals only 79 million had become realized losses over the course of our 13 plus year history. As shown on the next page, default losses have been more than offset by realized gains elsewhere in the portfolio. The chart on Page 17, tracks the company's overall economic performance since its IPO in 2011. As you can see at the top of the page, since our initial listing, NMFC has paid 992 million of regular dividends to our shareholders, which have been fully supported by $1 billion of net investment income. On the lower half of the page, we focus on below the line items where we show that since inception, highlighted in blue, we have a cumulative net realized gain of 17.2 million, which is approximately $15 million improvement compared to last quarter as a result of certain opportunistic sales in our net lease portfolio that we disclosed last quarter. This cumulative realized gain is offset by 49.5 million of cumulative unrealized depreciation on our portfolio, which increased this quarter by about $30 million due primarily to general mark-to-market declines associated with widening risk spreads in the general market. On the bottom right in yellow, we show the cumulative net realized and unrealized loss stands at just $32 million, which remains a tiny fraction of the $1 billion NII that we have generated since our IPO. As we look forward, our team remains very focused on reversing the small cumulative loss and maintaining best-in-class credit quality throughout the portfolio. Page 18 shows a stock chart detailing NMFC's equity returns since its IPO over 11 years ago. Over this period NMFC has generated a compound annual return of 10.2%, which represents a very strong cash flow oriented return in an environment where risk free rates have averaged less than 1%. This year NMFCs performance has compared favorably to most equity indexes and has materially exceeded that of the high yield index, as well as an index of BDC peers that have been public at least as long as we have. I will now turn the call over to our COO, Laura Holson to discuss more details on our recent originations and current portfolio construction.