John Kline
Analyst · Janney. Your line is open
Thanks, Rob. Since our last call in March we have experienced sustained volatility in most areas of the equity and fixed income markets caused by rising interest rates, inflation concerns, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability. Through this period, corporate direct lending has been one of the most resilient asset classes across all financial markets. Our market has benefited from continued good credit performance, particularly in defensive industries, floating interest rates and secured debt structures. Loan-to-value ratios in many of our core industry verticals are less than 40% and in some cases under 30%. While deal flow remains materially lower than the latter half of 2021, we have seen increased activity in the large unitranche segment of the market, as equity sponsors have gravitated to the certainty and stability of direct lending versus other financing alternatives. Yields continue to be very attractive with floating rate spreads of $5.50 to $6.75 on many new unitranche loans. While we remain mindful of the overall economic environment, we continue to have high conviction in our investment strategy of lending to stable and valuable businesses within defensive growth industries that are well researched by the New Mountain platform. Page 14 presents an interest rate analysis, where we show how the current trends in the interest rate market could impact NMFC's future earnings. During Q1, three-month LIBOR increased from 21 basis points on January 1 to 96 basis points on March 31. Given the presence on floor – given the presence of floors on our assets and the lack of floors on our liabilities, this rate movement has been a modest earnings headwind during Q1. However, since quarter end, LIBOR has moved even higher to 1.4% and is expected to continue to increase throughout the rest of the year. If this rate trajectory continues, we expect to experience a material positive change in NMFC's earnings power during the back half of the year. For example, if base rates rise to 2%, which could occur within the next three to six months, annual earnings per share could increase by $0.08 or 6%. At 3% LIBOR, NMFC's run rate earnings power could be 14% higher, representing an incremental $0.17 per share. This positive interest rate optionality continues to offer our shareholders material potential return enhancement and provides an attractive hedge against rising rates and general inflation. Turning to Page 15. We present our book value performance since the COVID pandemic began, where we showed that the portfolio is steadily appreciated over the course of the last two years. Today our book value is more than 2% higher than it was in the quarter preceding the health crisis. This recovery has been driven by an increase in fair value of our core debt holdings, strong contribution from our REIT portfolio and appreciation of certain equity positions. The largest of which are shown on the right side of the page. Going forward, assuming solid operating performance and a supportive valuation environment, we believe these equity positions could continue to increase in value. Page 16 addresses NMFC's long-term credit performance since its inception. On the left side of the page, we show the current state of the portfolio where we have $3.2 billion of investments at fair value with $30 million or less than 1% of our portfolio currently on non-accrual. On the right side of the page, we present NMFC's cumulative credit performance since our inception in 2008, which shows that across $9.4 billion of total investments only $276 million have been placed on non-accrual. Of the non-accruals, only $79 million have become realized losses over the course of our 13-plus year history. As we will discuss on the next page, these default losses have been offset by realized gains elsewhere in the portfolio. Limiting losses over a long period of time is perhaps the most important metric for a credit manager. We remain committed to transparently disclosing these metrics to our investors. The chart on Page 17 tracks the company's overall economic performance since its IPO in 2011. As you can see at the top of the page since our initial listing, NMFC has paid $962 million of regular dividends to our shareholders, which have been fully supported by $969 million of net investment income. On the lower half of the page, we focus on below-the-line items, where we show that since inception, highlighted in blue, we have a cumulative net realized gain of $2.3 million, which is a $17.6 million improvement compared to last quarter as a result of the partial sale of the Arctic Glacier position from our real estate portfolio. This cumulative realized gain is offset by $19.2 million of cumulative unrealized depreciation in our portfolio, which nets to a cumulative net realized and unrealized loss of just $16.9 million. This aggregate loss stands at the lowest level since 2018 and remains a fraction of total dividend payouts to-date. As we look forward, our team remains very focused on reversing this small cumulative loss, while maintaining credit quality throughout the remainder of the portfolio. Page 18 shows a stock chart detailing NMFC's equity returns since its IPO nearly 11 years ago. Over this period, NMFC has generated a compound annual return of 10.4%, which represents a very strong cash flow oriented return in an environment where risk free rates have averaged less than 1%. NMFC's performance has materially exceeded that of the high yield index as well as an index of BDC peers that have been public at least as long as we have. Additionally, in recent months during a challenging environment for risk assets, NMFC has performed very well compared to the equity and fixed income markets that we track. Finally on Page 19, I would like to provide a brief update on NMFC's REIT subsidiary, which invest in mission-critical commercial properties with long-term tenants. We entered the asset class with the thesis that net lease offered a very nice complement to our corporate debt portfolio given the critical nature of the properties, long lease duration, attractive cap rates and annual rent escalators. Additionally, one of the key aspects of the investment process involves a detailed credit analysis of the property's tenant, which represents a core competency of the New Mountain platform. Overall, the real estate portfolio has performed very well, as we have experienced both attractive current cash yield and principal appreciation aided by the strong commercial real estate environment since the date of our first investment in 2016. Given the very low cap rates on certain seasoned assets in Q4 of 2021, we made the strategic decision to sell a meaningful portion of the portfolio, which has yielded sales in Q1 and Q2 and of approximately $67 million creating a realized gain of approximately $43 million. Depending on market conditions, we may sell a handful of incremental net lease assets with an aggregate fair value of approximately $50 million. The remaining portfolio valued at $120 million consists of more recent originations, which we plan to hold for the foreseeable future. While we continue to like this asset class, we have decided to reduce overall exposure with the goal of reinvesting sales proceeds into our core strategy of a floating rate defensive growth oriented private credit. I will now turn the call over to our COO, Laura Holson to discuss more details on our recent originations and current portfolio construction.