Earnings Labs

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Fri, May 1, 2020

$22.78

-0.28%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Annaly First Quarter 2020 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.I'd now like to turn the conference over to Purvi Kamdar, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Purvi Kamdar

Analyst

Good morning and welcome to the first quarter 2020 earnings call for Annaly Capital Management Inc. Any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to certain risks and uncertainties including with respect to COVID-19 impacts which are outlined in the risk factors section in our most recent annual and quarterly SEC filings.Actual events and results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We encourage you to read the disclaimer in our earnings release in addition to our quarterly and annual filings.Additionally, the content of this conference call may contain time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date hereof. We do not undertake and specifically disclaim any obligation to update or revise this information.During this call we may present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our earnings release. As a reminder, Annaly routinely posts important information for investors on the company's website at www.annaly.com.Content referenced in today's call can be found in our first quarter 2020 investor presentation and first quarter 2020 financial supplement both found under the Presentation section of our website.Annaly intends to use our web page as a means of disclosing material non-public information for complying with the company's disclosure obligations under Regulation FD and to post and update investor presentation and some more materials on a regular basis.Annaly encourages investors, analysts, the media, and others to monitor the company's website in addition to following Annaly's press releases SEC filings public conference calls presentations webcasts and other information they post from time to time on its website. Please note this event is being recorded.Participants on this morning's call include David Finkelstein, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer; Serena Wolfe, Chief Financial Officer; Mike Fania, Head of Residential Credit; Tim Gallagher, Head of Commercial Real Estate; Tim Coffey, Chief Credit Officer; and Ilker Ertas, Head of Securitized Products.And with that I'll turn the call over to David.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Thank you, Purvi and good morning everyone. Since we last spoke on our market update call on March 16th, we've seen the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly. We would like to again extend our deepest sympathies to those directly impacted by the virus and we hope everyone joining us for the call today continues to stay healthy.To keep ourselves, our families, and communities safe, Annaly continues to work remotely until it is appropriate for us to return to the office. We're grateful to have had well-established business continuity planning in place prior to this crisis to ensure the wellbeing of our staff without disruption to our operations.Now, on today's call I'll briefly provide an update on the market and how we managed our portfolio during the extreme volatility in March. Then leaders of each credit business will go through their respective portfolios. Serena will discuss the financials. And I will follow-up with our positioning and outlook going forward.Now, as the COVID-19 outbreak wreaked havoc on financial markets and the economy, we witnessed the Fed and Congress intervened in unprecedented ways. The Fed has enacted policy stimulus at a record pace announcing larger and broader-based measures than during the 2008 financial crisis.They reduced the policy rate to the zero lower bound provided ample liquidity and repo in U.S. dollar swap markets, conducted record asset purchases in treasuries and MBS, and established lending facilities to support a broad array of markets.To contextualize the sheer magnitude of the Fed's actions, its balance sheet has grown by more than 50% in the past six weeks. These measures have helped support financial markets and should prove beneficial for the economic recovery once we find ourselves on the other side of the virus.And in addition to the Fed, Congress has now passed four round of fiscal stimulus…

Mike Fania

Analyst

Thank you, David. The residential credit market, similar to the broader fixed income and equity markets, experienced significant disruption in late Q1 as the downstream impact to the economy due to the COVID-19 virus became increasingly apparent.Residential credit spreads started to widen in the second week of March with significant asset price decline and liquidity temporarily evaporating from the market. Credit markets were extremely turbulent over the following two weeks given a vicious cycle of deleveraging, margin calls, forced liquidations and redemption concerns as technicals weighed on asset prices.Similar to the broader credit markets, the resi market began to stabilize with spreads moving tighter in early April as forced deleveraging subsided and market participants turned to evaluate assets upon fundamental value.Most sectors within the resi market, while tightening significantly from mid to late-March still remained wider than previrus levels. For context, AAA prime jumbo spreads trading in the low mid to 100s to swap pre-virus, touched 600 to 650 to swaps at the wide before tightening into the low mid-200s currently.New origination CRT M2s trading at par dollar price pre-virus hit mid-high 50s at the lows and are currently trading in the low $70s prices. A non-agency legacy market generally a source of stability trading in the low mid-100s to swap pre-virus hit 10% yields before stabilizing in the 4.5% to 5% yield area. The new origination nonagency whole loan market also experienced significant disruption as securitization was no longer accretive or viable and market participants repriced assets given industry-wide forbearance, policies and economic disruption. This in turn forced a number of nonagency aggregators and originators to close their operations, stop accepting new locks and being forced to liquidate holdings on warehouse facilities.Moving to our portfolio, we priced two securitizations in January and February OBX 2020-INV1 and OBX 2020-EXP1 with…

Tim Gallagher

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. The commercial real estate property and credit markets continued the momentum of 2019 and got off to a solid start in 2020 but that progress abruptly stopped with the onset of the coronavirus-related crisis as the sector became one of the first to experience the impacts of curtailed travel and shelter in-place orders. Hospitality and retail saw an immediate impact on operating performance.Initial data for multifamily office and industrial are better but even these more stable asset classes are not immune to near full economic shutdown. Commercial credit spreads started to widen in the second week of March in line with other credit markets. And certain CRE market participants such as money managers, REITs and hedge funds were forced to raise cash due to fund outflows, margin calls and redemptions.By the third week of March several mortgage REITs and other funds could not satisfy margin calls, prompting them to seek forbearance with lenders while some vehicles were liquidated all together adding to pressure on spreads through these forced liquidations. Similar to the broader credit markets, the liquid commercial credit markets began to stabilize on spreads moving tighter in early April as forced deleveraging subsided.While AAA paper has significantly tightened from its March rides, credit continues to languish without a clear buyer base or financing option. In addition servicers' ability to ramp up staffing, their liquidity to provide advances and their assessment of special servicing and workout fees continue to be top of mind in industry discussions.According to research reports, more than 2,600 CRE borrowers totaling nearly $50 billion in loans have requested forbearance as of the end of March. This backlog will be an ongoing headwind to existing credit bonds in the CMBS market.The new origination market remains largely frozen as market participants await further clarity on the…

Tim Coffey

Analyst

Thanks, Tim. As a reminder, the middle market effort was the first of the firm's three credit strategies to reside on Annaly's balance sheet, commensurate with the arrival of the group's current leadership team in 2010 at the time with firm's founders Mike Farrell Wellington Denahan, soft professionals in the middle market space with a solid track record not just through 2007 to 2009 period, but over multiple cycles.Today Annaly middle market is a $2.3 billion business comprised of 51 borrowers that are 100% backed by top-tier private equity sponsors. Despite recent volatility and heightened uncertainty, we believe the Annaly middle market portfolio is uniquely positioned given our tightly wound approach to a narrow industry set dedication to private equity firms with well-established track records aligned to our industry set and deep first order due diligence. I cannot emphasize enough we do not compromise on due diligence.The composition of the middle market portfolio is 70% first lien. 30% second lien. The number of borrowers in the portfolio and our percentage mix between first and second lien has not changed materially over the past two years. The group's asset expansion has been driven by growth from within our portfolio across multiple vintage investment years as opposed to the rapid addition of new borrowers, much like how we handled past periods of intense convergence in the lower marketplace. And I can assure you the past three or four years were as intense as any period we have seen.We tackled this convergence by pruning. We pruned the number of industries to which we are willing to lend from 16 to 8 over the past four years and correspondingly recalled the number of private equity sponsors with whom we partner to better align with the sectors, we believe are countercyclical, nondiscretionary and defensive.Consequently, we…

Serena Wolfe

Analyst

Thank you, Tim and good morning, everyone. I'm sure you all agree with me after that overview that we have the best team in the business. I'm pleased to join you today for this earnings call and provide you with color on our financial results and the success of our remote close. I will provide brief financial highlights for the quarter ended March 31 2020. And while our earnings release discloses both GAAP and non-GAAP core results I will be focusing this morning primarily on our core results and related metrics, all excluding PAA.As David mentioned earlier, given the great shutdown, the latter part of Q1 was challenging. However we are proud of the results, given the enormous headwinds that management and the company faced, as we closed out the quarter. Our book value per share was $7.50 for the first quarter, a 22.4% decrease from 2019 year-end. And we generated core earnings per share excluding PAA of $0.21 for the quarter and a GAAP net loss of $2.57 as compared to $0.26 and $0.82 for the fourth quarter of 2019.The decrease in book value is attributable to the increase in unrealized losses on the swaps portfolio of approximately $3.2 billion, due to lower forward rates compared to a gain of $778 million in the prior quarter, as well as higher unrealized losses on instruments measured at fair value through earnings of $730 million, down from losses of $6 million in the prior quarter, which is offset by unrealized gains in OCI of $997 million from our agency portfolio.It is important to note that the vast majority of our assets and liabilities are at fair value. And our book value reduction illustrates a significant market disruption that occurred prior to quarter-end and the impact on fair value measures. Our book…

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Thank you, Serena, and we hope the relatively deeper dive into the credit businesses this quarter proves informative in light of current market conditions.Now as with any period of the extreme market volatility, there are three conceptual stages of stabilization and recovery, as it relates to how we manage our portfolio. Phase one involves preserving capital and shoring up liquidity which we have successfully completed this through the measures I have already discussed.In Phase 2 which is how I would characterize where we are currently, there are opportunities to deploy capital in the agency sector, while we obtain more information on the long-term outlook on the economy. We're looking forward to transitioning from a defensive posture to a more offensive one. But dislocations and constrained liquidity do persist.And as a levered participant, we must remain focused on the stability of financing available for our investments. And agency MBS currently provides the most surety. And even as the Fed shifts to a more measured QE pace aimed at lowering mortgage rates and economic stability, the agency sector will continue to benefit.We view the outlook for volatility to be lower. And with easier regulations to facilitate dealer intermediation in the treasury market, market functioning should continue to stabilize. While a great deal of uncertainty remains, the environment for managing interest rate and convexity risk is much more favorable heading into the second quarter.Now Phase 3 which we believe is near involves strategically allocating capital to best position the company in a new environment. As we look ahead we will benefit from having numerous ways to capitalize on the dislocations across markets. And those with ample capital will have many opportunities to choose from. And we sit in a healthier liquidity position today than we have over the past few quarters.There will be abundant prospects across our businesses, which again highlights the benefit of our model as we are able to most optimally balance the best risk-adjusted returns available.Episodes of extreme volatility as witnessed in March are pivotal moments for the growth of Annaly and our team. We have reaffirmed the principal ways in which we've always managed our business. Liquidity is paramount. Scale is critical. And relationships matter immensely particularly on the financing side.And lastly we have been of the view that historical leverage levels for our sector are elevated. And we expect them to decline in the coming quarters which is not specific just to the agency market.And lastly, I wanted to thank our team at the honor of stepping into this role as the world as we had all known it turned upside down. Our team has truly worked tirelessly and collaboratively to successfully manage the unprecedented markets we have experienced. The Annaly culture has been a bright light amidst the turmoil and I'm excited for what is ahead for our firm.And now with that we can open up the call for questions operator.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Steve DeLaney with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Steve DeLaney

Analyst

Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Boy it was great to hear from each of the individual credit heads given the environment we're in right now. And I would say, you all came across sounding very comfortable with what you own today.I guess the question that raises is your posture towards credit generally as a team a lot of people seem to be running from the hills -- to the hills because they -- I think more because of financing weaknesses. But do you see this as more -- over the next six to nine months, more an issue of managing what you have and minimizing losses? Or do you actually see potential opportunities from the dislocations that have occurred? Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Hi Steve, this is David. And thanks for your comments. Good to hear from you Steve. And thank you for your comments on the credit businesses in terms of the more informative approach. We did want to make sure that everybody understands exactly how these businesses are operating and the portfolios are performing.And to your question there obviously is a lot of uncertainty still remaining with respect to how the economy and credit evolves. As I said in my prepared comments agency is the core of the portfolio. That does represent the best shelter in the storm here. And the sector is obviously quite attractive.Now with respect to credit going forward each of our three credit businesses very likely will have opportunities. There's three components of the repricing of credit that we've experienced and are experiencing. There's a technical cheapening which we saw in March when there was overhang in resi credit some commercial assets. There's the fundamental component of price which is still yet to be determined. And then there's a risk premium, given the uncertainty to what extent are you just getting compensated for bearing more variability in returns.So we kind of think we're beyond the technical component. Now we're figuring out the fundamental price of credit and whether it's warranted, given current pricing and what kind of risk premiums we should expect to achieve for making these investments. And so there is still work to be done. And we have to have more information.But the way I would characterize it is starting with the residential credit business when we started the year, we felt that that would be a growth area given the fundamentals of the residential landscape. We still think it will be a growth area. There's obviously been a dislocation and loan origination is confined…

Steve DeLaney

Analyst

I understood and super helpful. And just one question on that is the -- your favorable early 2020 outlook for residential based on the strength of the housing market et cetera. Obviously we don't have a securitization market today. We'll see if the Fed adds AAA, RMBS to TALF. But do you believe that, once we see a securitization market reawaken that the problems we've had with warehouse lending will abate. And that the banks will come back and be supportive of pre-securitization investment?

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Yeah. So I think seeing that execution, we'll get more comfort that there is liquidity to banks. But I will also say that, we're starting to see some aspect of secure -- or warehouse lines actually open up, with added higher cost. But nonetheless, we're at a point now a month out of the real volatility where banks are starting to look at the sector. It's dependent upon the assets as well as the counterparty. But there are some silver linings with respect to warehouse lines. And the two will likely occur coincident, both securitization and warehouse lines opening up.

Steve DeLaney

Analyst

Thanks for the comment. And everyone stay safe. Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Kenneth Lee with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Kenneth Lee

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Wondering if you could just share with us any updated thoughts on, your current dividend coverage? Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Sure. So thanks for joining us today, Ken, we will have more formal guidance at a point in the future with respect to the dividend. What I will say is we recognize there certainly have been cuts in the sector. And we're aware of the guidance that analysts have come out with. So, what I can tell you is that, we do expect to maintain a competitive dividend yield relative to peers which has been in the low double digits over the past number of years on book value.So we're comfortable with conveying our competitiveness of our dividend yield. And we really want to spend the time over the very near term and not just look at the second quarter, but look at multiple quarters out and determine what we think the appropriate dividend yield is. Obviously our core was a little bit lower, in Q1.And as Serena mentioned, there was some catch-up amortization associated with asset sales that dragged that down a bit. We do expect our core to be a touch higher in the second quarter. And we'll have more formal guidance with respect to the dividend later in the quarter.

Kenneth Lee

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. Very helpful and just one follow-up if I may, this one on the just middle market lending business, is there any potential benefit or do you see any potential benefit from any of the various Federal Reserve lending programs for the portfolio companies within that business? Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I'll turn it over to Tim to, answer that.

Tim Gallagher

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yeah. I think, as it relates to the variety of the programs that are out there. I think given where we play, we're less influenced, by what goes on with a lot of those programs as they have been contemplated today. Certainly, the one area that has not been a part of a lot of these programs has been leveraged loans. You certainly have seen it on the AAA CLO side where they have announced some action.But I think -- but long story short we are certainly not banking on it. I don't think we need to bank on it. And I think, as it relates to the AAA CLO portion of it. I think, the benefit there is probably ultimately going to be outweighed, by the fact that CECL, I think is going to have a more profound effect ultimately on how things get priced off of the cheapest aspect of the capital stack and the cheapest form of prime brokerage activity that feeds the entire ecosystem and leverage lending.

Kenneth Lee

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. Very helpful. Appreciate it. That’s it for me, and hope everyone stay safe. Thank you.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Rick Shane with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Rick Shane

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. And I hope everybody is well. A couple of things, I don't know if I missed it. Did you provide a quarter-to-date update on book value at this point?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

I haven't Rick. But I will tell you as of yesterday, our book was up roughly 7% right around $8. Our leverage has declined modestly primarily as a consequence of higher equity value and we are right now at about 6.6 times maybe 6.5 times. And our liquidity is $5 billion in terms of cash and agency MBS.

Rick Shane

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you for that update. And we really appreciate the deeper dives into the credit businesses and wanted to follow up a little bit on the MML business. Look your competition in that space to some extent has some very different constraints. They're subject to fair value accounting versus your CECL reserves. They typically have hard leverage limits related to their 40 Act status. I am curious if you are seeing any, sort of, arbitrage created by those differences? And also wanted to talk a little bit about the 3.7% CECL reserve in the context potentially of some of the spread widening that we've seen in the space that will impact fair value accounting companies.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Well, this is David. I'll start and then hand it over to Tim with respect to the CECL accounting on the middle market book. I think when Tim went through the metrics of the portfolio average yield with the detachment point at 5.1 times EBITDA, we feel like that is a very comfortable level from a market standpoint even with potential repricing. So from the standpoint of fair value on the MMO book I think we feel pretty good about it.And I'll hand it off to Tim to…

Tim Coffey

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Rick I think just as it pertains to us which is the first part of your question, I’ll walk-through where we were with our watch list categorization names, which is approximately $220 million. $150 million of that number, the borrowers actually experienced some substantial growth in the month of March. So clearly an outlier for the NIMs that one would consider to be the most sensitive with everything that's been going on. But March was a very productive month for a large portion of those watch list names.So I think what we try to marry up are the fundamental aspects of the portfolio coupled with what you're ultimately describing the spread duration issue that certainly goes into any FPL calculation.I will tell you, I think the middle market space generally speaking has been largely -- most of them systemically not particularly concerned with spread duration risk because it's something that hadn't reared its head for basically seven or eight years until Q4 of 2018 when it first hit. And then obviously with this most recent bout beginning in Q1 2016 Rick, we became very, very focused on that.And I think David spelled out the numbers and the attachment points. But I think the real telling one is as it relates to our effective durations. We carry a second lien book that's got a shorter effective duration than our first lien book, which is a clear anomaly but it's also a function of the types of credits that we play in.And so we've been very, very conscious of spread duration risk. Unfortunately I think 99% of the space is not particularly concerned with it and the only way to find out until you have periods like today. So certainly I think how people are going to have to assess that is going to be a big part of the FPL calculations and prospectively potentially the hit.I would also tell you that where you play is very, very important in terms of how you manage effective duration risk. And so when you take a look at our book, I think one of the things that does stand out is the fact that we have shifted our focus over the last two or three years to more leader range opportunities that are sub-50 sub-60 of EBITDA and they tend to be platform investments where sponsors are rolling up a specific space. And they have to come back to us to, obviously, ultimately complete any prospective acquisition opportunities. And that allows us the optionality to either -- the binary optionality to either stay in the deal or ultimately exit stage left commensurate with any prospective acquisition opportunity. And so that particular segment has really been the most powerful thing that we've strategically done to mitigate spread duration risk.

Rick Shane

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Tim that's very helpful. And it really does come through. I apologize to my colleagues listening, but I am going to ask one last question. Can you just talk about LIBOR floors on that portfolio? And is the benchmark rate for those investments three-month LIBOR?

Tim Coffey

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Borrowers have an option Rick, basically of one, three, six et cetera. There's – since the crisis the 12-month option has been less relevant in a lot of the underlying credit agreements. We do have LIBOR floors on our portfolio. Approximately 80% of our book has a LIBOR floor. How we are financed? Our counterparties are with us and the third-party leverage do not have LIBOR floors with us. So there is a bit of an odd there. And I think as it relates to the one and three month option what I can tell you is recently the trend has been to the overwhelming majority being at the one-month end.

Rick Shane

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Make sense. Thank you, guys very much.

Tim Coffey

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

You bet.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Rick.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Eric Hagen with KBW. Please go ahead.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. And hope you are well. And hey, David I enjoyed the interview on the website.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Well, thanks.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Following up on the adjustments in the hedge book. All in are you guys running a positive duration gap right now? And what's the message you'd think for investors with respect to the spread and duration exposure they can expect to receive right now in Annaly going forward?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Sure. It's a good question. So to the first question the duration we are running right now is a half year as of this morning 0.54 years. And the message I think we would convey is that, it's not the quantity of hedges it's the quality. With the Fed, clearly in play for the foreseeable future in terms of policy accommodation, we don't expect short rates increase for the foreseeable future. And so having hedges at the front end of the curve is not advisable in our view.When we look at the possible risks of the portfolio, the agency portfolio it's very asymmetric in so far as there's been a little of call risk. The duration of the index is sub-2 – well, below two years as is our portfolio and it's really about extension risk. And so how we wanted to create the – or reposition the hedge portfolio late last quarter is to make sure that we had protection out the curve to the extent that market became somewhat complacent. And we did see a bit of a sell-off in the longer end just given the fact that there is going to be a lot of treasury issuers. And oftentimes, we think the Fed is providing a put option on the market. They're not always doing that.And so we wanted to make sure that our hedges were out the curve, because like in the summer of 2013, which we all remember in those types of episodes when the market gets tripped up you can see a meaningful sell off and steeping curve. That's where we felt the most risk was. I think the average life is a little over nine little years on the hedge book. And our assets are much shorter. And that brings our duration down to about a half year. And if anything we would shorten the duration a little bit more potentially. And we're also a little bit more inclined to these options here just given that volatility has come all the way back to the levels of January. And we think that's a worthwhile investment and the tails get cheap you want to buy them. And so we have added a number of payer swaptions out of the money payer swaptions to the portfolio as well in the second quarter.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Excellent market color. That was great. And just one on pre-pays. Some people think we're effectively just kicking the can down the road so to speak, because of the operational liquidity challenges that have obviously made mortgage spreads and rates very wide right now. Does your pre-pay assumption assume some normalization in mortgage spreads and mortgage rates? And just help us contextualize the pre-pay assumption I think would be really useful. Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Are you talking about the longer-term pre-pay assumption in the – that we publish?

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yeah.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

So that's the average of – I believe its five dealers and they're average pre-pays long-term pre-pays on our portfolio. We look at that relative to our model for example. And it's more the reason why we use it is it's arm's length in so far as we're not influencing that. We think that all models have real issues right now given we have not been at these rate levels before.Number one, you can't really model the uncertainty with respect to this virus and the ability for loans to close et cetera. The primary secondary spread should contract over time as more capacity is added. We do anticipate that to be the case. And so it's a little uncertain with respect to what the model impact would be whether or not models are completely accurate. But we think 17-odd CPR is a reasonably good long-term estimate given the rate environment. And if anything over the long term perhaps a little bit conservative, given the quality of the collateral we own which is now the vast majority of it. I think 99% now is either medium- or high-quality specified pools or seasoned bonds. So we're comfortable with it.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Got it. So since it's a long-term estimate it does take into account some normalization of spreads over time?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yes. Exactly.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Got it. Got it. Thank you. And then just one on housekeeping. How much are you guys funding overnight right now through Arcola?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Yes. I'd say right now it's 25% of our overall repo book right around there maybe a touch inside of there of our overall financing. We – with respect to Arcola, it was a very valuable tool during the month of March. That's where a considerable amount of the liquidity was with respect to the Fed providing liquidity in repo markets.A lot of it ended up in FICC. And so we appreciate having that. We have more capacity if we wanted to increase our Arcola balances. But we also heavily appreciate the bank counterparty relationships. And we have to balance that trade-off between overnight financing at 10 basis points and going out a little further whether it's one month, three months and paying just a little bit of term premium on that.

Eric Hagen

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thank you so much and stay well. Thanks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Doug Harter with Crédit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Doug Harter

Analyst

Thanks. David, if you could talk about kind of your outlook for leverage kind of as you move into the Phase 2, Phase 3 that you described in your prepared remarks?

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Sure. Are you speaking with respect to us or broadly?

Doug Harter

Analyst

Yes. For you.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Okay. So obviously our leverage is a touch lower on the quarter and even lower now. And we do think that it is an environment where leverage will be lower. There is more spread in the agency market. And the economics are more favorable than they have been given the fact that we're at the zero lower bound.The Fed is obviously in play in buying assets. And we're certainly comfortable with the agency market. But you can take two approaches. You could say okay, let's add leverage because we think spreads are going to tighten which we do on the agency market. That just tends to be the case when you have this type of environment, as we saw in the earlier QEs.Or you could take the approach that we can earn a competitive yield with a little bit lower risk. And I think we're more on the side of lower leverage in a slightly lower risk portfolio and a lot of that is informed by what we just experienced in March. Liquidity was obviously highly constrained for agency investors. It wasn't just the REIT sector.I mean if you look at the amount of assets that Fed purchased, which is in excess of $500 billion, the fund redemption, deleveraging and other sales of agency MBS, obviously provided a lot of supply in the market. And we learned a lesson from that experience and I think it does inform how you look at leverage on a go-forward basis. And generally speaking, I think it's a little bit lower.

Doug Harter

Analyst

And then just sticking to leverage. How are you thinking about the borrowings currently against FHLB and kind of what the outlook there is, as you kind of approach the sort of the end of that – of your ability to access that?

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Sure. Sure. So as you suggest our line does – and currently in February of next year. We did reduce our borrowings from the FHLB last quarter, given the fact that it was – we do – we were financing a fair amount of agency MBS in addition to our whole loans on the line. And it actually became more economical to use our bank counterparties to finance the agency MBS.So we reduced the line by about two-thirds. We still maintain our whole loans on our FHLB line. But we are preparing for the eventual end of that line should that be the case. And as I was talking about earlier with Steve, we're looking at warehouse lines, bank warehouse lines. It's more expensive obviously.But again, the economics of whole loans right now are more favorable. And so when you look at the balance, we do think that converting over to bank warehouse lines, assuming a securitization market redevelops and we anticipate to do so. We think the economics will not be quite as good as FHLB but they'll be competitive. And the fact that we've already built a brand in securitization space, thanks to the FHLB line and that helping us incubate our whole loan business. I think we're in good shape going forward not relying on FHLB if it's not there.

Doug Harter

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

You bet, Doug.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Matthew Howlett with Nomura. Please go ahead.

Matthew Howlett

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Thanks everyone. Good morning. First, on the margin, you gave great color on what happened there in the quarter and where repo is at the end of the quarter. One of your peers I think guided to over 150 basis point net into spread second quarter. Can you is there sort of a cadence on or any type of forward guidance you can give us on what to expect on that margin and net interest spread next several quarters?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Yeah. And obviously it's fluid. Both financing -- what we do on the asset side and how we reposition hedges, I will say that the net interest -- net interest margin is higher. Our repo expense is going to be inside of 100 basis points certainly. We can and have repositioned our swaps to reduce the net interest spread. All I can tell you right now, because it's obviously fluid now is from a NIM standpoint, I would view Q1 as a trough relative to Q4 and Q2. And now that being said it is on a lower overall asset base. So you do have to take that into consideration.

Matthew Howlett

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Right, absolutely. So it means the biggest variable clearly, is it just speeds? I mean, is that the -- given that we've sort of clarity on where repo is and when the swap rates are, is that the biggest variable when you think about modeling this next several quarters?

David Finkelstein

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Yes. And it's -- repo I think is relatively stable and predictable. And there what we do on the asset side and speeds obviously can influence that. But -- and what we do on the swap side. And there's a lot of small variables that I think can make up the overall NIM. But I'm comfortable telling you that Q1 is a trough on that front.

Matthew Howlett

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Okay. Great. And then David congrats on the role. The company is internalizing here in the second quarter a one-off. Obviously, asked about buybacks going forward. Can you maybe just spend a second to address your vision of Annaly? Maybe give us an update on the internalization what changes and cost saves are going to happen? And just overall anything you'd like to say in terms of where you think you're going to take this company in the next several years? And congrats again.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Okay. Let's talk a little bit about that and thanks for the question, Matt. So in terms of the vision in Annaly, what I'll say is I've obviously been with the firm for nearly seven years. And I've overseen the businesses for the past number of years. So there is a level of continuity, that I've obviously had an influence on how these businesses have been directed.Now what I'll say is first and foremost, Annaly is an agency-oriented REIT. And I'm not just saying that because it has been a port in the storm over the volatility. That's the DNA of the company. It was founded by two bond traders and nurtured by those individuals. And that happens to be the DNA that does exist today both on the asset and liability side.So agency-oriented, but that being said, we do have three very solid credit businesses and they all performed admirably through this volatility. On a go-forward basis, in terms of how we see the world, as I was discussing earlier, looking at these three credit businesses, we came into the year thinking that the resi sector probably had the most promise given its fundamentals and what we've been able to do in that business. We still do think that.Tim in the middle market lending business will differentiate that business I think through this volatility relative to its peers as I said. And so that is something we're certainly happy about. And the commercial business has a capital markets focus. It's been conservative both with respect to capital allocation and what we think the sectors that they've invested in. But the commercial business, I think the sector as a whole is probably I would characterize over the very near term as more precarious given the uncertainty with respect to the…

Matthew Howlett

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

And appreciate that. The buybacks I know may be premature, but I just wanted to throw it in there.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Yes. So, with respect to buying back stock obviously in March and even into April liquidity was paramount. How we look at buying back stock? It's a capital allocation equation. On one hand, you have the very near-term immediate accretion when your price -- when your stock prices are at a discount and you trade that off with liquidity and what we might think to be better longer-term investment opportunities to use that capital. So, what I'll tell you is we have the authorization. It is a capital allocation consideration and we'll evaluate it relative to both liquidity and other options that we have.

Matthew Howlett

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

Thanks a lot, David. I really appreciate it.

David Finkelstein

Analyst · Nomura. Please go ahead.

You bet. Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to David Finkelstein for any closing remarks.

David Finkelstein

Analyst

Well, thank you everybody. We hope everybody stays healthy and safe throughout this episode and we look forward to talking to everybody shortly. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.