Earnings Labs

NiSource Inc. (NI)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 29, 2010

$48.33

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the third quarter 2010 NiSource earnings conference call. My name is Tijuana, and I will be your coordinator for today. (Operator instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Glen Kettering, Senior Vice President of Corporate Affairs. You may proceed.

Glen Kettering

Management

Thank you and good morning. On behalf of NiSource, I’d like to welcome you to our quarterly analyst call. Joining me this morning are Bob Skaggs, President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Smith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Randy Hulen, Managing Director of Investor Relations. As you know the focus of today’s call is to review our financial performance for the third quarter of 2010 and provide a business update. We will then open the call to your questions. At times during the call, we will refer to the supplemental slides available on our website at NiSource.com. I’d like to remind you that some of the statements made on this conference call will be forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements. Information concerning such risks and uncertainties is included in the MDNA and risk factors sections of our periodic SEC filings. And now I’d like to turn the call over to Bob Skaggs.

Bob Skaggs

President

Thanks Glen, and good morning, and thanks for joining us. Today, we will cover several key points before opening the line to your questions. First, I will touch on the team’s strong performance thus far in 2010, which has enabled us to increase our full-year earnings outlook for 2010. I will also speak to our third quarter results, which very closely in line with our business plan, and finally, I will highlight several areas, where our team continues to execute our plan to build shareholder value and long-term investment driven earnings growth. So first, let us turn to our 2010 non-GAAP earnings guidance. If you recall that at the beginning of 2010, we provided net operating earnings guidance of $1.10 to $1.20 per share, the midpoint of which represented about 7% growth from our 2009 earnings level. We are pleased to announce that we now anticipate full-year net operating earnings to fall within a range of $1.20 to $1.25 per share, again non-GAAP. This improved earnings outlook reflects the core strength of our team’s 2010 performance, as well as continued signs of resilience in some of our key markets. I am confident the team will deliver on our updated outlook by executing on our business strategy, meeting the needs of our customers and enhancing shareholder value through long-term infrastructure investment driven growth. As noted in today’s news release, we also remain strongly committed to growing annual earnings by 3% to 5% on a long term, sustainable basis. To that point, during the third quarter we significantly improved our flexibility to fund our deep inventory of infrastructure investment opportunities by successfully executing $400 million common stock equity offering. The offering was fully subscribed under favorable pricing plans, and aligned very nicely with our infrastructure investment profile. Notably, we are now in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Xin Liu with JPMorgan. Please proceed. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Good morning everyone.

Bob Skaggs

President

Good morning.

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

Good morning. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: I just want to get more color on your operating expenses, for example, in your gas distribution segment, the 19 million increase, how much is due to the pension there, how much is due to other costs?

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

Yes, hi, this is Steve. About $10 million of that 19 million is due to pension, and the balance is due to other factors.

Bob Skaggs

President

I would just mention again that pension for the most part reflects a catch-up that was recorded in 2009, but really benefited 2009 results. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Do you expect that to continue in the next quarter?

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

No.

Bob Skaggs

President

No, really again it reflects that last year was benefited by an extraordinary reduction in pension expense. You might recall that Columbia of Ohio had a rate ruling, a rate provision that allowed to defer pension expenses. So in the third quarter of last year, they really deferred nine months worth of pension expense. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Okay.

Bob Skaggs

President

That helped when you do the comparison that makes 2010 look lumpy. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: And for the balance of the increase, what drove that?

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

Well, you had various employee and administrative costs that was about $7 million of the $19 million, and then the balance was higher taxes and other, which was driven primarily by higher property taxes and increased depreciation. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Okay.

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

Those three items primarily drove the $19 million, the pension, the employee and admin cost, and then higher taxes, other and depreciation.

Bob Skaggs

President

And I would say, just as a general statement that we don’t consider any of these increases to be a systemic problem. There are consistent with plan. They reflect our ongoing operations. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Okay. And on pension, another question given you may have a lower [ph] rate, what would the impact be on next year for your pension expense?

Steve Smith

Analyst · JPMorgan

Well, as we look through the balance of the year, primarily where we are today is about 80% funded. Our return on assets has been what we had anticipated and protected it would be based on our assumptions. You are right to point out that the discount rate has dropped from year-end 2009, but again I would point out that what really matters is where the discount rate is at the end of the year. And as the discount rate moves around, if it is lower at the end of the year, it will drive a higher liability, if it is higher it will drive a lower liability. So we won’t know exactly where we end up. We have to wait until the end of the year before we can run all the analyses to figure out where our pension expense will be for 2011, and where our cash funding will be for 2011. But I will point out and emphasize that based on where we are relative to our asset performance, it is in line with our expectations. Xin Liu – JPMorgan: Okay, great. Thanks.

Bob Skaggs

President

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Theresa Kim [ph] with Gideon [ph]. Theresa Kim – Gideon: Good morning.

Bob Skaggs

President

Good morning. Theresa Kim – Gideon: I just want to make sure I understand what you said in your formal comments that you are on talks on the 2008 case, and that is conceivable that it would obviate the need to file a case this year, so can you just elaborate further, does that mean you would not file a – I guess, a rate case at all, or just file a case this year, but you would file next year?

Bob Skaggs

President

The base game plan is to file a NIPSCO electric rate case two during the fourth quarter. That is the base plan. Theresa Kim – Gideon: Okay.

Bob Skaggs

President

However, we are in discussions with the stakeholders around rate case one. Those discussions are global in nature, and could encompass a resolution that might eliminate the need to file that second rate case. And again, I would use caution in my formal remarks, I would use caution, if I speak with you and others that these discussions are ongoing. They are fluid, they are touching on many issues, and they may or may not be successful. So, again, the game plan is to file that second-rate case ASAP during the fourth quarter. Theresa Kim – Gideon: Okay. Thank you very much.

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Carl Kirst with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Thanks.

Bob Skaggs

President

Hi Carl.

Steve Smith

Analyst · Carl Kirst with BMO Capital Markets

Hi Carl. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Just a couple of questions, maybe first on Columbia Gulf, Bob you said you guys just filed yesterday, understanding it is up to 50 million, you mentioned a host of things. You know, should we look at and I’m looking at this in context with the third quarter, where it looked like IT volumes were down. Is that the operating conditions you were referring to, and I guess I’m trying to get a better sense of is it really, is that what is driving it or is it more the investment and cost side?

Steve Smith

Analyst · Carl Kirst with BMO Capital Markets

It is all the above Carl. It is the cost in the investment side, but it also certainly involves volumes and changes in the way this system is being used. So you read it correctly. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: And if I could, with respect to your comments made about not really being able to kind of get on the same page with respect to the incentive fuel cost, should we expect then this to be fully litigated, and I am curious what ROE you guys used in the pipeline rate filings?

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes, we requested 13.5 on ROE, and your question about is this going to be fully litigated or can we resolve it through a settlement. You know our philosophy, we attempt to settle most of our rate proceedings. We are certainly going to give this a good, good shot. I think this case is straightforward. It doesn’t have a lot of moving parts. My anticipation is that we will be able to resolve this case via settlement. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. I appreciate that, and then last question if I could is really more of a much bigger picture, and at the risk of not wanting to getting into detail for next year, I will see if I can sort of as it vague enough, you know, but with the potential IRUC settlement of NIPSCO gas, obviously that brings in all else being equal a fairly nice EPS pick up anyway from the depreciation front, and as I look around, obviously it is going to be dependent upon the NIPSCO outcome, but we do have some other positive things going on in the LDC world, and so what I’m wondering is maybe is we are looking at now this year in 2010 at a $1.20 to $1.25, are there major headwinds that we should be focusing on at this point for 2011 that might eat into some of these gains for instance?

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: I don’t want you to get too far out of your skis, but you understand where I am coming from just want to make sure that we are looking at it correctly?

Bob Skaggs

President

No, more than happy to just touch on sensitivities for 2011 without getting into a outlook, earnings outlook discussion. But certainly the economy will continue to be a key sensitivity throughout the market area, but in particular in Indiana, Northwest Indiana. We do have some sensitivity around the Columbia Gulf rate case. We also have sensitivities around our optimization business, both at pipeline and at gas distribution, although we don’t rely on that business, it is a big earnings generator. At the margin it does play a role. And then just the ongoing issues around NIPSCO electric, can we provide additional clarity on that, can we firm up ’11 and ’12. Those are the key sensitivities that would hit my top four, top. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. But – and I appreciate all of that, but within there, there is nothing of that necessarily you are looking at where you sit today that you say, wow, this factor right here looks like it is really going south, for instance, in 2011. The economy, knock on wood, perhaps is stabilizing et cetera, et cetera.

Bob Skaggs

President

I would agree with your observation. Carl Kirst – BMO Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks guys.

Bob Skaggs

President

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc. Please proceed. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Good morning, and I apologize if you touched on this. I had to join late, but is there some noise around Duke and the commission and just wondering how you view that as a threat, or potential threat?

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes, during my comments Paul, I made the observation that we believe that the commission has resumed business that they are operating in the normal course, they have issued several very balanced orders in our proceedings. We expect them to act on the NIPSCO as settlement within a matter of weeks. And we believe that under the leadership of Chairman Atterholt the commission will continue to be balanced, constructive, and continue to process cases in a timely manner. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets: What is your experience with the new chair?

Bob Skaggs

President

We know that – the new chair, obviously he hasn’t been in the chair but several weeks. But we have experienced with him a state legislator in Indiana, as the lead at the department of insurance in Indiana. His reputation and his work has again been very balanced, thoughtful and constructive. So we hold him in high regard and believe that he is going to operate the commission in that manner. Again, all indications are that they are working hard in processing cases, and ensuring the commission is working. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Thank you very much.

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes.

Steve Smith

Analyst · Paul Ridzon with KeyBanc

Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Sameer Sapna [ph] with Decade Capital [ph]. Please proceed. Scott – Decade Capital: Hi, good morning. Actually, it is Scott [ph]. Sorry about that.

Bob Skaggs

President

Hi Scott. You were disguised there for a moment. Scott – Decade Capital: Well, there is like 13 calls going on today. So…

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes, I know it is busy a few days. Scott – Decade Capital: So, I just – I don’t know if you guys mentioned this already, or if that was in the release, just kind of wondering where you guys raised guidance, I think the weather normalized if I am correct. So, just kind of why the raise in the guidance? That is all.

Bob Skaggs

President

Yes, it has just been the ongoing solid performance of all of business units. They have been on top of their plan. They have not exceeded for the first nine months. At this point, we just have strong confidence that they are going to be in the $1.00 to $1.25, and you are correct, we do weather normalized. Scott – Decade Capital: Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Bob Skaggs

President

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And with no further questions in queue, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Bob Skaggs for closing remarks.

Bob Skaggs

President

Well, again thanks everyone for your participation this morning, and your interest, and we will talk to you as developments unfold. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for joining today’s conference. That concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.