Thomas Kaplan
Analyst · B. Riley FBR Securities
Thank you very much, Dave. Thank you, Greg. Certain things bear repetitions. When I speak about Donlin Gold to investors, I often ask the question, what other gold development stage assets in the gold mining industry compares in its combination of the following. Number one, enormous side. Number two, we all know the greatest team, and what we're talking about here is very high grade for an open pit, large open pit mine, with the concomitant fact that you're going to have low production costs. The exploration potential is extraordinary. We're finding it simply in the insole drilling. But, when did you realize that the existing resources are only on the 3 out of an 8 kilometer mineralized belt, 3 kilometers out of 8 kilometers, and that 8 kilometers itself is less than 5% of the total land package. You realize that, the blue sky and the exploration potential at Donlin is arguably better than any other gold mining project, certainly in a safe jurisdiction. The production profile of Donlin would make it in either one or two stages either the first or second largest gold producing mine in the world. And by gold producing, I mean, purely gold without base metals. It's only comp would be -- project, and that one is being developed in Russia. A mine life measured in decade, that's the basis, that's the foundation of all great mining companies. It means that, you do not have to continue outside of your own backyard in order to be able to sustain and very possibly add to growth. Our local and industry partnerships are superb. We are on land is Greg referred to, which is already designated legally, bylaw for mining. And of course, we're partners with great native corporation organizations, plus one of the leading gold producers in the world, Barrick Gold. And last but as far as I'm concerned, really the gating factor for investing in precious metals mining today. We have the safety of being in one of the world's premier mining jurisdictions. Even if there were other gold deposits, not very many of them would be able to combine several of the attributes that I just discussed to combine all of them and yet be in a jurisdiction that is the second largest gold producer in the United States after Nevada. This to us is why we call Donlin to the benefit of our shareholders, and also those in Barrick the Holy Grail. Next slide please. Let's talk about some of the backdrop. By background, as you know, Greg is an engineer. He is one of the premier mine builders and operators in the space. He and our project manager, Richard Williams, they know how to really build great mines. That's not my forte, mine is being able to anticipate future supply demand imbalances and try to get ahead of the curve. What we see in the gold space is that, even without any of the absolutely numerous macro factors that favor gold, if you only going to look at it in terms of the industry fundamentals themselves, you would have to say that this is a time when you want to pick the next-generation of winners. After the nuclear winter that the gold space went into before, I think that if you find those stocks, which will be the go-to stocks, that is those that have great assets in safe jurisdictions, you're going to have the opportunity to make a real killing. The fact is that within the gold industry itself, there's been a decline in discoveries and grade as global production has peaked. Barrick is calling for a 5% annual decrease in gold production for years. Existing mines are being depleted and grades are declining simultaneously with very few, if any, new discoveries being made to replace them, certainly, nothing that we would consider to be substantial. And when you consider that it now takes, on average, between 15 and 25 years to develop a new mine, the horse has really left the barn. In terms of existing mine production, 26 of the world's largest miners are forecasting that existing mine production is going to decline 13% by 2022 and 47% by 2027. $130 billion in cumulative CapEx is forecast to sustain current bold output to 2026. And the truth is that gold supply from stable jurisdictions represents a small percentage of that total production, many of which, in terms of those outside of the jurisdictions that we believe in. I actually believe are going to be subjected to far greater nationalization and confiscation, whether it be de facto or Dura. Next slide please. This under investment increase output growth. In 2012, mining companies began implementing aggressive cost cutting measures and curtailing expansion plans in their effort to protect the margins. As their shareholders, who were quite fed up with misallocation of resources, abandoned growth in favor of maximizing returns from existing operations, perfectly sensible thing to do for a short period of time. The results however, is that exploration budgets for gold fell by 65% from a peak in 2012 to a 10 year low in 2016 according to S&P Global. Exploration budgets increased in 2017 and '18, the current gold exploration budget remains 50%, that of the 2012 level. Now remember, I have to continue repeating this, because it's shocking. Even if you found multiple mines, which could move the needle and with all due respect to Donlin and Sukhoi Log, we're really not going to move the needle that much in terms of the bigger goal supply balance. The truth is that the shift to lower reward late-stage in mines by exploration programs means that it's going to take anywhere from 15 to 25 years for other projects further in the pipeline or view discoveries to be able to get to market. Over the past 10 years only 25 major new deposits have been identified, containing 153 million ounces of gold, which represents only 7% of the gold discovered over the past 30 years. No major discoveries have been made in the past three years. Facts are curious things. High-quality assets in fact are very few. Off 135 assets, not yet in production, only 30 have greater than 10 million ounces of gold in reserves and resources. Only nine of these assets have a grade of one gram per ton or greater. Next slide, please. So, in terms of size Donlin is already a category killer. They're only a couple of projects in the worlds, ours in Alaska, Sukhoi Log in Russia, which obviously is parked in similar geology. Alaska once having been part of Russia itself, but I don't believe that there's ever been a gold mine, which has begun with 40 plus million ounces of gold. And once again, that's only on 5% of the land package when we know that at least double the endowment is mineralized, in terms of the kilometers. So this is a great asset in terms of size, but size isn't everything. Please continue. Let's get back to grade. What grade means is quality. So, when you're a quantity, that's a box that you can check. But in today's world, grade is king. And when you're sitting on a grade, which very will be higher than this that remains to be seen, but when you were already sitting on the grades, a two and a quarter grams per ton and that's over twice the industry average at a time when grades are falling and will fall through one gram per ton, you have an enormous advantage. The reality is that, when you're talking about cost structures, if you've got two grams of gold and someone else has one gram of gold, all things being equal, your cost of production per ounce of gold is going to be half. That is a great differentiator. When it's not just something that's going to be around for four or five or six or eight years, for something that could be around for 40 or 50 or 80 years, you have a category killer project. Next, NovaGold is very privileged to be able to share with Barrick, one of the mines which will be producing over a million ounces of gold a year, hopefully just in the first Phase III. It could get considerably larger than that. This is really a unique proposition. If you consider the Barrick, the whole Tier 1 asset is one that produces half a million ounces annually, you can obviously understand that the scarcity value of one that produces twice of that, and at a grade that is double the industry average and located in a jurisdiction where when you wake up in the morning, whatever you thought you owned the evening before you still own. And you've really got a wonderful, wonderful story, and you have the makings of a go-to stock for smart money. And as we've been permitting and taking this company up the value chain, um, it's something that will be the premier Gold development story, when gold it embarks upon the next leg of what we expect will be a continuation of a rip-roaring bull market. Next, you know, those of you who know me know that I make my fortune in the developing world, starting in South America, in Bolivia then in Africa, in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Congo. At one time, I was the largest holder of mineral rights throughout the entire Islamic world from Mauritania through to Pakistan. A number of years ago, I decided that as much as I gained from this experience, and hopefully was able to create opportunity for a lot of people on the way, not just investors, but other stakeholders, I believe that that year is over for investors. If I didn't, I never would have withdrawn from these other countries because I had the experience to be comfortable there. I just unfortunately believe that the rule of law is key and that institutional investors when presented with world-class assets and world-class management teams are going to be asking the brokers who introduce them. That's great. I'm really interested to meet them. But just tell me one question. Where in the world are they? Because I think that mining has become like real estate, location, location, location. You want to be in a place where if you have a great asset that's going to give you leverage to an underlying theme, you are one day going to be able to ring the cash register and reap the fruits of that leverage. If I'm right on where gold is going, if I'm right on the macros and the importance that gold is going to play in the coming very soon world order of currencies. I think that you're going to see more and more that gold -- and to a certain extent, silver will be declared strategic assets. If you ever believe that there will be a significant recession again, then my level of certainty in that respect will probably rise to that of metaphysical certitude. Right now, I'm hoping it's not the case. I think that we're in a situation where gold does well. Everyone should be able to do well. But if other things happen in the world that, unfortunately, I see unfolding, gold may be one of the only things that does well. And if that's the case, the chance that gold mines will be untouched in parts of the world where the rule of law is a novelty, I think are very unlikely. Next, the bottom line to that argument, in fact, the bottom line to the series of arguments that I've just made about the significance of having an asset that moves the needle and size, the significance of grade and what that does to the attractiveness of an asset and the cost structure of an asset, and of course, the significance of jurisdictional risk. What that means is that all ounces are the same, not all ounces are created equal. If you've got great ounces in -- assuming you do have great ounces in a place where jurisdiction is challenging, it's not the same as if you're in Nevada or if you're in Australia or, of course, if you're in Alaska. And this is something that I learned a long time ago. I'm always attracted to assets, which have optionality value. And there were days in the past where I found that in many different parts of the world. If I'm right on how the world is developing, that optionality value is ephemeral because by the time it becomes something that can be realized, somebody will have made you an offer from the government that you really can't refuse because at the end of the day, mining companies aren't in a position where they can move from a safe place to a new place. They're not like textile companies that can move their factories to lower wage jurisdictions or semiconductor companies that can move to places where they're given land and subsidies. What you have with the mine is you have a hole in the ground. And you'd better be sure that the people who are your hosts are very, very happy and contractually obliged to live by the agreements that they've made with you. There really aren't that many jurisdictions in which you can make that characterization. Next, I've obviously spoken about exploration before, but I have to tell you that when you have the ability to be able to deliver great exploration results. There comes a time when the kind of results that we've been issuing with Barrick would make our stock double or triple. That era is coming. And it's not just simply because retail investors seem to have suspended their disbelief over certain momentum plays. As the gold bull market takes off and as people do realize that exploration is something that very few companies really have easy access to and certainly not the kind of drill results that we are almost taking for granted, you have to recognize that those things will add kerosene to the fire when stocks are delivering great results. We believe it's yet to be seen. It's the ultimate forward-looking statement that considering that only 5% of the Donlin property has been explored, and that's really a function of the historical blowback from Barrick's failed takeover attempt in 2006. We now have an explorationist at the helm of Barrick, a great one and a geologist for that matter, who's been out to see the site. I think that we're going to be able to have opportunities to be able to show that we're really just scratching the surface in terms of the potential at Donlin. We call it the new Nevada, we're the new Carlin. And to be able to be a 50% owner with a great company like Barrick on the new Nevada is an enormous privilege. Some people, obviously, will choose to get that exposure through Barrick. They're big. They're diversified, extremely well managed. Others will choose to be able to have a pure-play on Donlin as the next Nevada and in a safe place that is the second largest gold producer in the United States after Nevada. And then there will be others, I hope, who will see the opportunity and want to own a piece of both companies because the leverage to gold in a place where you can keep it is simply extraordinary. There aren't that many gold discoveries of 6 million ounces over the last few years. We have 6 million ounces, that's in inferred adjacent to the pit. This thing has got real octane going for it. And as someone who's made his money through the drill bit and surrounded himself with some of the greatest geologists in the world. One of them, in fact, was the one who said he thought the next Donlin would be at Donlin, we're extremely happy with what the future holds for us in this district. Next, in terms of gold itself, having been called gold's evangelist on many occasions, I see no reason to change our outlook to the contrary. Comments, which might have raised the brows a couple of years ago about the inevitability of a revaluation of gold no longer do. I'm using the quotation of Mohamed El-Erian as a very good example of this because I know Mohamed. And in addition to being a really, really fine man, he is not by any stretch of the imagination someone given to unfounded pronouncements. He's a very thoughtful person who speaks only after he's really thought something through. And I think he's right. Gold is evolving into a must-have asset. Investors went from treating gold as a short-term momentum trade, that's if they were willing to invest in gold at all, of course, to seeing it more as a legitimate stand-alone option in long-term portfolios. Well, if he's right, and I do believe he is, the reality is there just isn't enough gold to go around if you were to get even a 1% allocation by family offices and institutions into gold for its value as a store of value and other facts that we hold dear. Next, over the past year or so, I've pointed out that it's no longer the case that if you were to go on CNBC, for example, and say that you're constructive on gold that people will throw things at you, either literally or figuratively. You can talk about gold constructively and really have a conversation. That is a prerequisite for a long-term enduring bull market. We are nowhere near gold being an investment that is a crowded trade, not remotely. But we are in an investment, which has attracted some smart money and some smart money observations. I'd like to mention a few quotes that we've added to this grouping over the last while. Here's Ray Dalio. And Ray has been constructive on gold for quite a while now. And around the time of the bottom, he started to speak about it more openly. In a world of ongoing pressure for policymakers across the globe to print and spend zero interest rates, tectonic shifts in where global power lies. By the way, that's a nice, very elegant code word for the rise of China. And conflict, gold has a unique role in protecting portfolios. It is wise to hold some of what central banks can't create more of. I would add that it's wise to hold something that central banks do regard as a currency, even if it is demonetized. They're comfortable with it and of course central banks have been adding to their gold reserves. We had a phenomenal fact several weeks ago where Russia was revealed to have more gold and its reserves than treasuries. This is extraordinary. I have zero doubt that the Chinese are also working very possibly in concert with the Russians, on ways to be able to use gold to chip away at the dollar has been the world's reserve currency. More sanguine that they're going to be able to do that, over the passage of time, for many years long gold long dollar. I would say watch China, China is internationalizing the renminbi and China is also the largest producer of gold. They have a best interest in gold remaining interesting, as does Russia, which now has overtaken. Australia is the second largest producer of gold. I'd like to highlight a comment by the man who I regard as the Dean of gold mining investments. John Hathaway, who said, recently, a cursory inspection of the U.S. fiscal situation suggests that the U.S. dollar deserves to rank high on the endangered species list. It's beautiful turn of phrase. We believe that now is the time to start layering in gold exposure, not when the rest of the world tries to do so. He's very right, there will come a time when the assets that people have here to for love to hate and hate to love will become extremely sought after any of you want to see what could happen to gold, and watch some of the unbelievable anomalies that are taking place in the U.S. stock market today. In truth, I think that what we're seeing is a global phenomenon and I think it points to a very, very bullish scenario with regards to the revaluation of gold and I would also say, silver. A comment by [Paul Finger], also from the past year, this was a perfect environment for gold to take center stage. He wrote, as spot gold traded at around today's price a little bit less. Fair value for the metals the fund believes gold is literally or should be literally multiples of its current price. I agree with him. Next slide please. For all of the reasons which are cited that makes NovaGold so attractive. The truth is that if you just look at what's going on from a macro and micro standpoint, we're dealing with a perfect storm for gold. As an asset diversifier you really have to own it. The safe haven appeal makes more sense than ever before. Currency debasement, which obviously has been used as the primary factor for those who are bullish on Bitcoin is the, now a global phenomenon. The central bank purchasing means that central banks will be competing with private investors for that gold which can be acquired at certain levels. Gold provides inflation, deflation protection and emerging market demand and our view is only going to go up. Meanwhile, for the reasons I've decided, when recovery rates, inadequate exploration, decreasing for grades, rising production costs, jurisdictional risks, which means that mines that people thought might come online probably won't. All of these supply pressures, which are leading to a decrease in mining supply at a time when you have demand drivers arguing for higher prices. This is a beautiful picture. Next, perhaps it's not surprising that with all of the attributes that we have going for us at Donlin. Our institutional shareholder support has been excellent. Management has been increasing its share ownership in the Company. Our 10 largest shareholders, some of the smartest money in the world, represent 60% plus of shares issued and outstanding, that number may actually be higher now. But we'll see, meanwhile, our named executive officers share ownership has increased to 2.7 million shares since joining the Company. Obviously, my family holding company, which is my family, plus employee capital, and the capital of two of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds, as well as a very large prominent private family office is the largest shareholder, followed by fidelity, John Paulson, Paulson & Company, BlackRock. And now the Saudi Public Investment Fund, we are extremely proud that at a time when Saudi Arabia was monetizing it's profits from having invested extremely acutely during the crash earlier last year. We were the only stock in the third quarter that they were actually revealing holdings for. We welcome the Public Investment Fund and look forward to having a wonderful alliance with them going forward. But when we look at our other shareholders than First Eagle, who are our mines, one of the smartest investors in the gold mining space, Vanguard, EXOR, Amiral Gestion in Europe, Sprott Asset Management, it's a great shareholder base and we are very proud to be serving you. I'm often called the owner who lives above the store. And I am very glad to be a servant to such great smart and loyal shareholders. Next, so, summarizing the NovaGold story, Donlin is a Tier 1 asset in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, and we are a pure play on this new Nevada. The asset we believe, in terms of its aggregation of superlatives is unique, with very strong investor friendly attributes. You've even just heard the Chairman referred to himself as a servant of the shareholders. And that's because that's the way I view myself. That's the way management's views themselves. We believe that we're one of the most transparent in signaling our strategy in the gold mining space. We believe that we have delivered on all of our promises in the eight years since 59 years almost since Greg Lang and I became CEO and Chairman respectively. So, here are the attributes, the size enormous, the grade, extraordinary. The exploration potential, we believe the best in the gold space, certainly in a jurisdiction where you can sleep easily at night. Indeed Alaska is a premier mining jurisdiction with respect to socially and environmentally responsible mine development. Our partners, the native corporations really couldn't be greater and more supportive of what we're all trying to do. And of course, Barrick enjoys many, many superlatives in its own, right? Our leverage is enormous, just with the existing endowment. We believe it's worth tens of billions of dollars and half of which is to our credit, half of which to Donlin. We have a balance sheet with $122 million. When you take into account the notes receivable, including $75 million in the third quarter that we expect from -- we're going to be one of the only gold mining companies with a stronger balance sheet at the end of the year than where we started, without having to have had to recourse to shareholders. Our chief federal and state permits are in place. The management and Board have a successful track record of building and operating mines and to our shareholders, I can't thank you enough. The friendship and expression gratitude is the memory of the heart, and you certainly have mine and Greg's and all of the Board's and management for your steadfastness. Thank you.