Earnings Labs

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 8, 2008

$89.48

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Third Quarter 2008 National Fuel Gas Company Conference Call. My name is Carmen. And I'll be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to our host for today's call, Mr. James Welch, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

James C. Welch - Director of Investor Relations

Analyst

Thank you, Carmen and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's conference call for a discussion of last evening's earnings release. With us on the call from National Fuel Gas Company are Dave Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ron Tanski, Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer. Joining us from Seneca Resources Corporation is Matt Cabell, President. At the end of the prepared remarks, we'll open the discussion to questions. We would like to remind you that today's teleconference discussion will contain forward-looking statements. While National Fuel's expectations, beliefs and projections are made in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, actual results may differ materially. These statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and you may refer to last evening's earnings release for a listing of certain specific risk factors. With that, we'll begin with Dave Smith.

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Thank you, Jim and good morning to everyone. The third quarter was another great quarter for National Fuel. On an operating results basis our per share earnings of $0.72 were over 70% higher than they were in 2007, the increase being driven primarily by the E&P segments. Seneca's production from continuing operations was up 10% over the prior year with more than half of that increase coming from our successful drilling program in the east. Net increases in production coupled with higher realized commodity prices while Seneca's quarterly earnings to more than double from the prior year. Earnings were also strong in the utility and in the pipeline and storage segments with each posting double-digit percentage increases. Overall, it was a great quarter. In fact, it was the third consecutive record quarter for the National Fuel and we remain on track for a great year. Turning to the individual segments, the third quarter was a busy one and I'd like to take a few moments to update you on our recent developments. In the utility segment, we promoted Anna Marie Cellino to President of the Distribution Corporation. Anna Marie is a lawyer in a CTA, who, over the course of more than 25 years with company as a one time or another, overseen most every aspect of distribution's business. Anna Marie is and has been focused on customer service. But at the same time she keeps a watchful eye on spending. Given the low growth nature our utility service territory and given our desire to avoid rate increase request, our ability to control cost will be critical to our future and I have every confidence in Anne's ability to get the job done. We also promoted Ron Cramer to President of the Empire. Ron, who is an engineer, has managed…

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Thanks Dave. Good morning everyone. We'd another great quarter at Seneca with production, prices and earnings all up significantly. U.S. production for the third quarter was 10.3 Bcfe as compared to 9.4 Bcfe for the third quarter of fiscal 2007. For the nine month period our production is up 7% over last year. I anticipate full year fiscal 2008 production will exceed 41 Bcfe. In the Gulf of Mexico, we drilled another successful exploration well. The Eugene Island 383 well, found 70 feet of pay and will be sub-sea completed and ties back to a near by platform, with first production in the second quarter of fiscal 2009. Seneca has a 30% working interest. Overall, for the current fiscal year, our exploration program is three for four, we're in the process of plugging our first dry hole and that makes us five for six over the last 14 months. In California, at our Midway Sunset field, we have now completed our second phase of drilling for the Maverick Sand adding another 230,000 barrels of proved reserves. While Southwest Hills field, we're continuing to develop our Monterey Shale play, drilling four wells this quarter. As a result of this program, we should boost our production at Southwest Hills by about 250 barrel equivalent per day. We don't often say a lot about California, because not much change is there, it simply continues to run smoothly providing consistent production and cash flow. But with current prices, the profitability and overall value of West division have increased substantially. That's at the PV-10 and our reserves in California; at the end of the quarter was over $2.3 billion. Moving on to Appalachia, we've had continued success with our fiscal '08 Upper Devonian drilling program with average estimated per well recoveries in excess of a…

Ronald J. Tanski - Treasurer and Principal Financial Officer

Analyst

Thank you Matt and good morning everyone. We really had a good quarter. There were no special or one time items, and all the earnings drivers are covered in yesterday's earnings release. We're not expecting any unusual items in the fourth quarter either so I am going to move ahead to discuss the assumptions built into our fourth quarter earnings guidance and then turn to our earnings guidance for fiscal 2009. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to be in the range between $0.45 and $0.55 per diluted share. When you add $2.65 of earnings for the first nine months, our earnings for all of fiscal 2008 are expected to fall in the range between $3.10 and $3.20 per diluted share. This guidance includes fourth quarter production volumes of approximately 10.1 Bcfe and incorporates approximately three days in August and three days in September of possible shut ends of our Gulf of Mexico production due to the hurricanes. Looking forward to fiscal 2009, our preliminary estimates for consolidated earning is in the range of $3.20 and $3.40 per diluted share. The increase in the earrings, results primarily from increased commodity pricing at Seneca. While we were preparing our forecast NYMEX features prices were so volatile that we chose to utilize flat pricing in the base forecast. The pricing assumption built in to our 2009 forecast is a NYMEX Henry Hub gas price of $9.50 per per MMBTU, and then NYMEX WTI price of $115 per barrel. Matt mentioned that we have approximately 40% to 44% of our expected production for 2009 already hedged to the extent that NYMEX prices vary from our flat pricing assumptions. The impact of those pricing changes on our unhedged production will affect our earnings as shown in the sensitivity table on page 27 of yesterday's release.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And the first question comes from the line of Carl Kirst from BMO Capital. Please proceed.

Carl Kirst - BMO Capital

Analyst

Hey, good morning everybody. Matt, just a quick question with respect to the EOG joint venture, the first is in... certainly understanding the first three wells here horizontal are representative. But can you tell us what the costs were on each of those three wells?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

I guess Carl, I'd rather answer that by saying that we expect the average cost of the horizontal is going forward to be in the order of $3.5 million.

Carl Kirst - BMO Capital

Analyst

Okay. And then... so we are going to spud the fourth well, when now you said September is that's already... whether are you spudded in the... it will IP in September?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

We are actually drilling the horizontal section now. We expect to crack it in September. Complete it in September.

Carl Kirst - BMO Capital

Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly, my understanding was there is also going to be a fit well, sort of second year with the new rig, regardless of the results of the fourth, is there a sense of timing of when that would happen and where it happen, kind of immediately after the fourth well is completed or is that something where its more I guess the specific surround that fit well will just be evaluated once we know the results of fourth?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

There should be another one pretty much right away, Carl. In fact, I would say three more in the calendar year.

Carl Kirst - BMO Capital

Analyst

Three more beyond the fourth?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Yes, in the calendar year.

Carl Kirst - BMO Capital

Analyst

In the calendar year, okay. Thanks for the clarifications.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Shneur Gershuni from UBS. Please proceed.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi guys. It's actually Chris. Just had a couple questions this morning, first could you speak to production guidance in 2009 why your E&P CapEx is up considerably production guidance spot year-over-year. I know you spoke little bit about TOM [ph] and Appalachia, so if could you give a little bit more detail there?

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Okay, beyond what I said in the comments?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. I mean the focus seems to be more on Appalachia, but it's a pretty sizeable increase in drilling CapEx and I was just curious what the plant EUR in terms of timing or what not?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

I think the main thing to understand here, well there is probably two things to understand. One is again, Gulf of Mexico will naturally be down just because we are not spending spent enough money to expect to maintain that 15 Bcf per year production rate. The other thing to understand is we did have a good year in terms of the number of discoveries we had in the Gulf. But two of those discoveries won't come on till at least about mid year because they require new platforms. So that the timing of new production is going to have a big impact on what our overall production looks like for the year. Meanwhile in we expect to have at least a 20% increase in our production there.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Also on production guidance on the cost side, the guidance for production cost illustrates substantial year-over-year growth, so I wonder if you can get some color on that.

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Sure. The biggest component to that increase is the cost of steam fuel, for California. We'll be increasing our steam in California by something on the order of 15% to 20% so that adds substantially to our costs. Additionally, the cost of gas is going up. We purchase gas from the Rockies and that cost of that gas has going up substantially. And really another thing to look at is, even though it's only 15% to 20% total increase in steaming, the incremental cost of that gas goes up substantially because that's all purchased gas, whereas, normally an order of 30% to 50% of our current tin fuel comes from waste gas that is very inexpensive, incremental increase is all purchased gas.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Okay, great. One final question with respect to ongoing exploration and Marcellus EOG recently had expressed some concern about their findings EURs and other. Just wondering what you guys are seeing outside... I know I understand your initial comments on the horizontals but given these comments and I guess the seeming decline and interest in Marcellus from EUG, would you guys consider potentially dissolving the JV happening?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Well, first of all let's be clear about what EOG said. I don't think any thing they said would say they are out of decline in the interest. What they said is that the idea of 3 to 4 Bcf wells like some of our competitors may have suggested seemed a bit rich a based on the data and I don't know but I would disagree with that, but 1.5 to 2.0 Bcf wells are highly economic in this way. I think EOG is still very much on board, they are still very good partner and they're proceeding with a new program this year and are expected to pick up a good in next year. Now the way the agreement is written, if they don't need certain drilling requirements, well the deal dissolves on itself.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay.

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Now, that's not to say that we might not renegotiate certain portions of the agreement, but that's all depended on negotiation and there is nothing been done today.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Right.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Yes, I think, the other thing is remember that I mean EOG payment said you won't see meaningful production from their perspective, meaningful to EOG is different to international field than it is to EOG so just keep that in perspective.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Well thanks guys and compliments on the quarter.

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rebecca Followill from Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please proceed. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Good morning. Several question for you. On the 50 million CapEx in Marcellus that includes the six vertical wells. What else is included in that 50 million?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Yes, Becca the... that also includes our share of the development drilling by EOG. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay.

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Okay, and includes some additional vertical drilling that we would likely operate beyond those six wells, that has seen and that's less certain in terms of where those wells will go yet but we are planning some additions, and I think include some leasing as well. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay. Can you tell us where you plan drill that six vertical wells?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

No, I guess I just assume leave that confidential for now Becca. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay. And does your guidance, production guidance assume anything from Marcellus?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Nothing significant, the assumption is that the Marcellus development wells won't yield substantial production in fiscal 2009. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay, that's fair. And may be on the California the moderate, area how much acreage do you have that prospective for the Monterey Shale?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Well, lets be clear here, Southwest Hills that's basically already produced from Monterey Shale and we have been for years. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay.

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

The Monterey formation changes across California, classes same [ph] from being, primarily a shale when you are down there Southwest Hills to be an inter rolls kind of inner bedded sands in shale as you go further north, so up in Midway Sunset the Maverick inner rolls actually primitive Monterey but it's the sand there not a shale, I don't know the answer you. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Yes,I got just the four wells that you were talking about during the Monterey and there is a lot of data may be I just missed, apart you guys talked about drilling four Monterey wells?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

We did. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay. And that's the just the same formation you've been drilling, it's not anything new?

David F. Smith - President and Chief Executive Officer

Analyst

Right, it's the same Monterey Shale in the Southwest Hills [inaudible] Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: And then on Gulf of Mexico, Highland Block 123-L, is that full on target for October?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

It's on target for October and probably the biggest variable there is going to be the Hurricane season that's to other than 23-L. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: And your net production is would be what?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

From23-L? Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Yes.

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Let me think about that for a second. Let me... Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: I think I can get... but right now, does I have to have it right now, just trying to get a feel for what could swing things one way or the other and?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Let me it this way Becca, just a single well that I'd say I think 20 million a day and 3,000 barrels of condensate and we have a 55% working interest. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay, so it's unchanged. Is Eugene Island 383 kind of that same range?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Yes, it's probably in that same general range. Rebecca Followill - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc: Okay. Perfect, thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. And your next question comes from the line of Jim Harmon from Lehman Brothers. Please proceed.

Jim Harmon - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Two quick questions related to the production affiliate in the Gulf of Mexico what type of decline rates are you seeing in first year and second year of production in the wells that you are drilling?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Jim it varies from well to well.

Jim Harmon - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay.

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

But, some of these well that are in relatively small reservoirs could be there entire decline 12 months, while others might last to four years.

Jim Harmon - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay. And is with prices coming in, specifically on the gas side is there any price for you might pull back to more capital out of the gulf?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Well yes, of course there is, but I think a better way to look at it is, we're constantly looking that the opportunities available to us, and given projections of gas prices we determine what drilling program we're going to have, so even at a high gas price we might pull back on our drilling, if we don't have the right opportunities available.

Jim Harmon - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay that's fair. And in Appalachia the capital budget is that all for drilling or are there some infrastructure investments that you are making and may be could you give us an update as to what infrastructure looks like, where you are drilling, what it can support and whether you or not there is infrastructure around in new wells that you are contemplating drilling?

Matthew D. Cabell - President, Seneca Resources Corporation

Analyst

Yes, there is some infrastructure cost in the capital, but it's not a significant portion. When we look at our Upper Devonian program, generally the infrastructure is reasonably available, but requires often time some upgrading in the Marcellus program as Dave mentioned the our supply and our mid-stream company are also looking at solutions to the Marcellus for us and for rest of the industry.

Jim Harmon - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we have no further question at this time I would like to turn call back over to management for closing remark.

James C. Welch - Director of Investor Relations

Analyst

We would like to thank everyone for taking the time to be with us today. The replay of this call will be available in about one hour on both of our website and by telephone and will run to the close of the business on Friday August 15th. To access the replay online visit our Investor Relations website at investor.nationalffuelgas.com and to excess by telephone call 1888-286-8010 and enter pass code 237696429. This concludes the conference call for today, thank you and good bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the presentation for today ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful weekend.