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New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 8, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the NFE Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded and all phone participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] To get us started today with opening remarks and introductions, I am pleased to turn the floor over to Managing Director of Strategy and Investor Relations, Mr. Chance Pipitone. Please go ahead, sir.

Chance Pipitone

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you, Melinda, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's conference call, where we will discuss our third quarter 2023 results, recent developments, operational highlights and future here at NFE. As Melinda said, the call is being recorded and will be available by replay on the Investors section of our website under the subheading Events and Presentations. In the same location, you will find a press release regarding our third quarter 2023 results and the corresponding presentation that we will walk through on today's call. As we proceed through the discussion, we will be referring to that presentation. And in that same presentation, you will also find a series of important disclosures related to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We encourage participants to review these important disclosures in addition to the description of risk factors contained within our SEC filings. Now let's dive into the call. My name is again Chance Pipitone, and joining me today at New Fortress Energy are Wes Edens, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Chris Guinta, our CFO; Andrew Dete, our Managing Director of New Business and other managers of our senior leadership team. Wes, over to you.

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Chance. Welcome, everybody. As Chance mentioned, we have a presentation that we put together for our Term Loan B that's on our website. There's a ton of great information there. And I'm not going to go back and belabor that. But there's a lot of great reference materials there. So the earnings deck is a skinny one this quarter because of all the material that is out there. So let's just dive in. Actually, by far, the best operational quarter that we had hit in the history of the company. Many, many highlights to talk about in terms of what we've done on the operating side, but a few things to point out. Number one, first and foremost, in our view and many others out there. Our first FLNG unit is now firmly in place. It's been mechanically completed. It's in the field. It is connected to the pipeline. It's in the final stages of being commissioned, really a remarkable accomplishment by the entire team, 5.4 million man hours, 2.5 years. So a record of a liquefier in the world by every single measure and something we're quite proud of. And obviously, a real cornerstone of the supply side of our business. Number two, in Puerto Rico, we completed our two power plants down there, the second of which was done and completed COD at the end of September. Brannen will talk to that. But obviously, again, built in record time, actually at a great impact on the energy system in Puerto Rico, something we're actually very proud of and also a real cornerstone investment for us in the island and something to really build on in terms of our future activities there. Lastly, I'll have Andrew Dete talk about Brazil. We were down Brazil together last week,…

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Wes. Good morning, everybody. The progress in FLNG1 is nothing sort of remarkable. We started the process of FLNG from a standing start on March 9, 2021. And in 31 months, we're proud to announce that we have gas into the system and expect to conclude commissioning by the end of the year. While a typical LNG project takes on average five to seven years, but thanks to our incredible employees, contractors, equipment providers and regulators were nearing the completion of one of the world's most advanced offshore LNG facilities. So quickly, just a brief recap of what has occurred and an outline of what happens from here. Over the last 60 days, the remaining two rigs have moved from their construction site in Corpus Christi to their permanent home in Altamira. All three rigs have been jacked up into position, connected to one another and hooked up to the Subsea pipeline. On Monday, we opened the valve of the subsea pipeline and moved the First Gas molecules into our system. The nat gas then flows from the hot tap assembly through the riser to our rig and into our high-pressure let-down valve. From now through COD, the process will be to move gas into the turbines and complete commissioning of the power generation system and then move natural gas into our pretreatment module. Gas flows through the mixed refrigerant compressor and into the cold box where LNG will then be produced. Once LNG is produced, the LNG then flows into our floating storage unit, the NFE Penguin, which will arrive on site in about 10 days. Our team has done a phenomenal job completing the various construction work streams, methodically and safely commissioning critical equipment, and we expect to see the first drops of LNG in the next few weeks. Andrew?

Andrew Dete

Analyst

Thanks, Chris. So turning to Brazil and to our downstream business. We've been talking about Brazil for a while. We're very excited that -- on the next call, we have, we're going to be able to talk about both terminals in Brazil being in operations. So on Page 9, we start with Barcarena. Barcarena has been mechanically complete for a few months. And we also have our FSRU that's been undergoing conversion works in the Seatrium yard in Singapore, the Energos Celsius that will finish the chemical completion under contract at the end of November, and we'll move to Brazil. And so the terminal will be in operations at the very end of 2023. A reminder that in Barcarena, we already have some long-term contracts. So Norsk Hydro, we have a 30 TBtu 15-year contract that will start when the vessel arrives and starts sending gas in early January 2024. And then we also have a 25-year PPA for a 630-megawatt power plant. We were excited to announce yesterday that we've closed financing with the Brazilian Development Bank to fully fund CapEx on that power plant, so 100% financed. And then that power plant will start operations in Q3 2025. Currently, it's about 37% complete under a fixed price fixed date EPC contract with Mitsubishi and Toyo Setal. We have another over 1,000 megawatts of permits for new power plants adjacent to the terminal, and we are excited to bring this terminal online to change a region at the mouth of the Amazon, which has no gas today and is totally reliant on oil-based fuels and to continue to announce new commercial activity at the terminal. On Page 10, we're talking about Santa Catarina. So all the way in the south of Brazil. We've been able to make great progress…

Brannen McElmurray

Analyst

Thank you, Andrew. Brazil is truly a remarkable market for NFE. Moving to Slide 11 for an update on the Puerto Rico mission. Just for a bit of context, Puerto Rico is placed with about 3.2 million people, but also shouldn't lose focus. There are about 5 million people in Puerto Rican descent living in the Mainland U.S. So an incredible culture, highly relevant to the history of the U.S. and extreme focus for us and federal government and others. Puerto Rico actually has, unfortunately, the dubious honor of having the highest electricity prices in the U.S. and the least reliable power. The average Puerto Rican customer is 500x more likely to be without power than someone in the Mainland U.S. After two devastating hurricanes and earthquake and other issues that they've dealt with over the past five years, federal government has decided to make a $22 billion investment to rebuild the energy infrastructure system in Puerto Rico. After Hurricane Fiona in October 2022, Puerto Rico launched a power system task force to stabilize the grid that included agencies such as DOE, FEMA, EPA and others. NFE responded to a call by FEMA in the Army for earlier this year to install 150 megawatts of power in Palaceco and 200 megawatts in San Juan. We are extremely proud to report that we have completed both projects, both operating base loads each running over 97% of the time, 2x more reliable than PREPA's existing system and 25% more reliable than private operators who operate in the market. It is the fastest large-scale power project that the Army Corps has ever accomplished, which is actually saying something given their history. Our power, which is 350 megawatts operating, but about 425 megawatts installed represents over 10% of the installed power in Puerto Rico…

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. Great. Thanks, Brannen. Just a quick refresher on the La Paz power plant. This is located at our terminal in Baja California Sur or BCS, which utilizes our proprietary ISO Flex logistics solution to move LNG in cylinders from the large offshore storage vessel to the terminal where they are then unloaded and sent to power plants owned by the CFE as we've done for the past year. More recently, we started executing regas operations and power generation at our owned plant, which we constructed beginning in 2021. In Q3, we conducted the 240-hour reliability tests on each of the three turbines and successfully completed grid compatibility assurance measures that were required to place the asset into service during Q3. The photograph on the right side of the page shows our power plant, which is comprised of three LM6000 turbines capable of supplying up to a maximum of 135 megawatts into the Baja power market. As we have mentioned before, we have an agreement to sell the power plant to the CFE in 2024, but NFE will continue to own the terminal and to supply gas to the power plant until the sale closes. In the meantime, NFE retains the cash flows associated with generating power and selling it into the local market. As a side note, NFE retains the cash flows associated with generating power and selling it into the local market. Flip to Slide 13, and this is the Nicaragua power plant. The beauty of the Nicaragua development is that every piece of this project has been done by NFE in some shape or form. So the power plant is constructed, it's on-site. It's waiting gas. We are currently doing permitting and initial construction works for an offshore FSRU terminal. This will be similar to the terminal…

Wesley Edens

Analyst

I'm sorry. What I'd like to do is actually just take a moment and have Ken Nicholson, give us an update on our hydrogen business. We've got the hydrogen folks here in the room of this, but there's a lot that is going on there. So there's a couple of slides we've put in the appendix, but Ken, if you could just give us brief, that would be great.

Kenneth Nicholson

Analyst

Yes. Great. Thank you, Wes. It's Ken here, folks. Slides 21 and 22 in the supplement provide a little bit of an update on the latest with ZeroPark's. I would say in the third quarter, we continue to establish a lot of momentum with the business. We are well on our way to building and establishing a company that we expect to be the biggest in North America in what we do and by far and away, is the most profitable. This is a business that will produce green hydrogen and hydrogen logistics terminals to customers in the energy, industrial and transportation sectors helping decarbonize all of their businesses, the terminals we're setting up are set up primarily focused on regional demand here in North America, but are also all on waterfront. And so they have expandability for exports, and there's a tremendous amount of demand in the international markets. And so we've sort of set out the business plan to establish things for a lot of growth going forward. On Slide 21, just to give you an update on our first site in Beaumont, Texas, ZeroPark 1. This is a site that we had originally planned and designed for 100 megawatts of capacity or up to 50 tons per day of hydrogen production. We are now increasing the scope of the site twofold to 200 megawatts or 100 tons per day of hydrogen. During the quarter, we signed a 100% offtake deal with OCI. We're big fans of OCI and what they're doing. They operate today, a large petrochemical ammonia and methanol production facility in Beaumont, and we will be supplying them with green hydrogen as they start producing blue and green methanol and ammonia products. That's a long-term deal, represents all of our available capacity for now. We…

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Thank you, Ken. If I can, I'm going to turn it back to the operator, I'd like to open up the lines for any questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And we'll go to our first question from Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to touch on the expected EBITDA for 4Q here as we reach this inflection point. Can you kind of clarify or kind of help us bridge here? Do you expect any contribution from non-contracted downstream assets in that number? Any type of open or spot cargoes or anything that's not "clean" as you said, Chris?

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. So the short answer is we have one cargo that we do expect to sell in Q4. Other than that, the remainder of the earnings are all coming through contracts to the downstream customers through our infrastructure.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Yes, that's helpful. And then with regards to the latest asset level financing for the Bahrain and Power project. Can you talk a bit more about the terms and structure of that financing? Is that something you can draw on overtime as the project progresses? Is it more of a lump sum that you'll take in the near term? And I guess related to that, will any portion of that going to repay the Barcarena term loan that's coming up due in February? Or is that separate?

Andrew Dete

Analyst

Yes. So it's Andrew. So a quick answer is yes. We will -- with our first drop fully repay the existing term loan, and then we'll be able to draw over time as we go as we complete construction financing. So similar to maybe like a term loan A that you'd see in the U.S. or a mini-perm financing. But this is obviously with the Brazilian Development Bank and has very long tenure as well. So it's a 20-year tenure on the financing and in a very advantageous rate. So I think all in, we're below 8% on that piece of debt.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Yes, last question for me is just related to the CapEx deployed during the third quarter, and then kind of the guide for the remainder through 2024. So it looks like some of the CapEx was maybe pulled forward here. Just trying to clarify it was quite a bit during the third quarter. Is that heavily related to CapEx deployed for the development of FLNG2, and then completing one? Or kind of what was the lumpiness there?

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. It's mostly the work that's being done in FLNG1. We had some procurement activities for FLNG2 that occurred during the quarter. We also had CapEx that was associated with the deployment of the turbines for the San Juan power plant. So yes, it's a little lumpy in the third quarter. You'll see some more details as we put out the queue later today or first thing in the morning. And happy to go through them with you, Chris.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

All right. Sounds great. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We go to Ben Nolan with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. So I was hoping to -- if you maybe give a little bit of color as to the status on the FLNG unit with respect to the DOE. Are you now fully cleared to produce LNG? And then also, how are you thinking about the deployment of the second FLNG unit? Or any color you can give around that would be helpful? Thanks.

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. Quick answer is we have resolved and posted on our website. The issue that the DOE raised last week, we find it just to be a nomenclature issue and they have agreed with us. So it's a nonevent for us now then. As far as FLNG2 is concerned, we are looking to put units onshore Altamira and have a positive reaction and interactions with the Mexicans. Remember, this is the -- this is -- we are building many of these units. You can put multiple units offshore, you put multiple units onshore. So calling one into one specific place is what the deal you reacted to. And our only point is we have units that can go in either location, we can select to put them in either one as we decide.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. I appreciate that color. And then for my second question, can I ask about the $1 billion of asset sales. Obviously, there's the power plant in Baja. But maybe any level of granularity you can add around that? And also, I guess, given the position of the company generating a lot more free cash flow, a lot less CapEx, sort of maybe talk through the drivers for some of those asset sales as opposed to just holding on to them and the associated cash flow?

Kenneth Nicholson

Analyst

Sure, I'll take crack. Ben, nice to hear your voice. So we have about $1.5 billion in total of -- we have about $1.5 billion in total in assets that we deem to be noncore that are on balance sheet. These are things that -- at different points in time, we're more important to. So a brief example would be something like our liquefier that we built down in Miami seven or eight years ago, that was a key part of the construction of the business and was a real proof of concept milestone for us. Today, that unit produces about 100,000 gallons a day. So it's not really a material part of our overall supply of the company. So that would be one that would be in that category. But for the most part, the assets that we're talking about selling produce a little in the way of free cash flow and a little in the way of EBITDA. So they're really just good core assets. They belong well in somebody else's hands, and I think it actually cleans up our balance sheet and provides a lot of incremental cash flow for us. Really, it's a -- my list of noncore asset sales is four or five in total. They're all kind of individual independent events on each one of them. And I think and expect that those things will actually come to fruition over the next six months or so for the most part. So and as Chris detailed then, when you look at the cash flow profile of the company now that our CapEx spend is down significantly, and our earnings generation is up significantly that plus the cash flow generated for these asset sales will go a long way towards deleveraging the company. And thus take us down the path to our goal of becoming investment grade. So it's a -- we'll report on it every quarter as we go along. But I'd expect a handful of sales over the course of the next six months or so. There's nothing that we are selling that we think we are sacrificing either EBITDA or cash flow for us. So these are all things that are great assets, but they're not at this point in the stage of the company's life material to our future. So that make sense.

Benjamin Nolan

Analyst

Sure. I appreciate. Thanks for answering all.

Kenneth Nicholson

Analyst

You bet.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Sam Margolin

Analyst

Hi, good morning everybody. Thanks for taking the question. My first question is on the downstream growth outlook. And I wanted to refer to one of the slides in the term loan deck because you had an illustrative margin build up on a per MMBTu basis in that deck. So you mentioned markets where you're displacing diesel and there's a fuel switching aspect, and so your margins are substantially higher than that. And so I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the opportunity in those fuel switching markets where you have higher embedded margins versus the illustration in that deck? Thank you.

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes. So the -- I mean the -- one of the core fundamentals of the business is exactly what you mentioned, which is going to markets that have the dominant fuel is diesel and switching them to natural gas is a sure thing. I mean when we look at the impact in Jamaica, for example, switching from diesel to natural gas on the plant that we first switched back in 2016, total savings to Jamaica life to date are in excess of $2 billion. So it's a massively positive savings for them and still generates adequate margins for us. The current level of oil prices and thus, the level of diesel that is generated by that in many of these markets, it's kind of mid-20s price. So you have natural gas prices. Henry Hub right now is around $3.50. So obviously, from the low to the high, there's a massive delta between the two. And that's what really drives the behavior of these markets. When I said earlier that I thought that Puerto Rico and Brazil literally might be the best two markets for us on Earth for what we do in terms of both switching fuel from diesel to natural gas and also building new better efficiency power. It's without question that these are the two most interesting markets for us because of exactly this phenomenon. We have -- in the Puerto Rico portfolio that we manage right now, there's about 1,000 megawatts of power today that burns diesel versus natural gas. Obviously, that's a huge savings potential for the Puerto Rican ratepayers to switch to natural gas. And for us, it's a very, very steady source of new incremental volumes as we like to transfer going forward. So that's basically the path of the company. As I said, going from $15 million in operating earnings in the first quarter to $195 million and then double or more as we go forward is just a massive, massive change in the business, and it is entirely driven by these longer duration customer downstream volumes. So it's a huge, huge moment in time for us. And now you can really start to see it through the financials. Then with the Q4 financials, the Q1 financials, you'll see the full impact in a number of these markets, both in particular, in Puerto Rico and Brazil, and we expect the growth to continue indefinitely. So it's a great point in time for us.

Sam Margolin

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that. Thanks. And then the follow-up is maybe just a clarification question for Chris or whoever wants to answer it. But you mentioned that FLNG2 term is sort of a nomenclature issue, and these are modular assets, and so the capacity is different across like the names of the reference materials. And so maybe if you could just clarify like what the total capacity would be at the FLNG2, as described in the deck. And then maybe if you would also share like what total invested capital in the FLNG group would be at that completion of the FLNG2? Thank you.

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. So first off, each train is 1.4 tons. So we have talked about multiple trains that we are building. Right now, we're only focusing on the first one being deployed in Altamira offshore, and we are evaluating where we will put additional units. As we've discussed previously, we are permitting sites in Mexico offshore, which is the one that's permitted now for two trains. We are looking to permit for up to two trains at the onshore location. And we're also permitting two trains at the Louisiana location. So our invested capital is not -- I can't pointed to just any one of those locations. I would say across the module construction and then specifically to the rigs, which are FLNG1's deployment solution. The total invested capital is around $2.5 billion, and we've disclosed that. So we think that that should give you everything you need in order to think about the total paid in capital for each of these units, and we haven't broken it out by two, three, four and five in progress payments. But suffice to say, critical equipment has been procured and we have the ability to maintain schedule to be able to put multiple units, both offshore and onshore.

Sam Margolin

Analyst

Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers. You may proceed.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. So first, Wes, you've commented a couple of times on the call about how exciting Puerto Rico and Brazil are you now have five fully executed markets, including those Mexico, Jamaica, and Nicaragua. Given the whole system when turned on is maybe 20% capacity utilization. My question is, do you see any need for further downstream project origination elsewhere in the world? Or do these markets have the ability to sustain substantial annual growth for years to come?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Short answer, Craig, and it's good to hear the call is the capacity that we have in these kind of core markets is so much greater than what our current productivity is that we have years of growth organically in each one of these markets. I mean, Brazil, and Andrew could probably speak to this better than I. But Brazil is a country roughly the same size in the United States, about the same population that uses about 5% as much natural gas, right? So the ability for us to access these markets now with these terminals is really extraordinary. I think there are six natural gas terminals in Brazil, two of them are not connected to the pipeline, two of the remaining four are owned by Petrobras and the other two are owned by us. So it's a dominant position that we have in that market, same thing in Puerto Rico, where it's even more the case. So there obviously is still a huge, huge need in the world for cleaner, cheaper power. And I do think that this whole question of energy transition, of course, is a meaningful one. But when you have 600 million Africans that have no power, when the average energy use in East Africa is 3% of the United States, there's just a massive disconnect between what people need and what they have access to today. And so of course, there will be markets over time, it will actually make sense to us. I'd say, looking forward from 2024 to 2025, my expectation is there not to be any meaningful incremental terminals added other than ones we've identified. So we need to finish the terminal and Nicaragua. There's been a well-publicized set of funds we've had on the terminal we proposed to build in Ireland. Ireland is the only country in the EU that does not have security supply. I think it's actually madness when you consider what is at stake for that economy or they're not to be an incremental source of supply. And so -- they came out with a ruling that we disagreed with. We just refiled an appeal to it, I think, a couple of days ago, [indiscernible] and we expect that will be heard in due course. And that would be a market that would make a lot of sense for us on many, many levels and more importantly, make a lot of sense for the average people. So we're a big, big fan of that. But short answer is that with the existing terminals and markets that we have access to right now, we think that there is a massive amount of incremental growth for many years to come simply by executing on it. And that's really the focus of the company.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Thanks. And my second question, I was always very intrigued by the opportunity of FLNG deployment, fast LNG deployment in stranded gas plays. Wonder if you could speak to the sticking points that were in the Pemex negotiations for Lakach and prospects are still outstanding for stranded gas opportunities around the world in coming years?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

The -- a little bit of historical context. The -- we owned 50% of the Heli ship that was developed by the Golar guys is deployed off the coast of Africa. So that's an example of a stranded gas field that's being produced basically producing LNG today. Their follow-on asset, I think, was begun in 2017 and maybe FID in 2019 and is expected to be deployed in 2024 in the second half. The contrast to that and our activities is actually fairly substantial. I mean we became FID in March of 2021. And we have the unit deployed today with gas in the system that's being finalized and commissioned before the end of 2023. So fast LNG is not a misnomer. It's actually the fastest production of a facility like this in the world. And we do think that with the world's energy needs, these stranded gas fields offshore are going to need a lot of activity like we just deployed. From our standpoint right now, that is not our plan to incrementally put more in place. We feel like the facility that we have currently in the Gulf of Mexico, plus the proposed development onshore, which is a separate development is, as we've said many times, is one that is adequate for our own needs. But I have no doubt that there's a big need and use for the technology and the capabilities that we have as an organization and maybe we'll end up doing that for other people and whatnot. But from a capital investment and from a CapEx spend perspective, we are very focused on FLNG1 and FLNG2 at this point and have no plans other than that. But I do think that the broader question that you asked is does this have applicability to the stranded gas deals offshore, the answers are sounding. Of course, it does. And I think you'll see a lot of development for it. And I think that the techniques that we have used in creating our own liquefier will be mimicked by others perhaps, and we'll see them crop up in different parts of the world.

Craig Shere

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Good morning. Hoping to follow-up on the FLNG permitting question. Can you just clarify what the onshore BOE application is for, if it's not for FLNG1 or 2?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Yes, it's actually super simple. Let me try and clarify, because I think this is just a -- I really do this is just not met a confusion. So we applied for DOE permits and receive them on our offshore facility. It happens to be located 12 miles offshore of Altamira, right, and a story. So and we receive the FTA permits we're an application for the non-FTAs. We're also in applications for Jones Act. We actually had conversations with the various government agencies about all these things. And that very much continues on pace. And separate topic, we are exploring the potential of putting the units onshore in the place also called Altamira, and this is where I think it becomes confusing. And my kind of view of it is that simply the name and the nomenclature was similar enough that I think that the department said, "Hey, look, if you're going to try to shoehorn your onshore development into your offshore permits, that's not really the deal. It has to be independently permitted." We said, of course, that's not our intention. And to the extent that we proceed with the onshore facility, we will file a separate application for that as is required and as is appropriate when that becomes necessary. So we filed that publicly. They responded publicly and said, "Great, thank you for that, and that's the end of the story." There was some misleading reports, frankly, they'll put out in the investor community and said, "Oh my gosh, this now puts in the question whether we have the permits and whatnot" nothing could be further from the truth. And it truly was misleading. I was unhappy about that, honestly. But from our standpoint, it was just a simple misconstrued question from the DOE that we responded to, they responded to, that's the end of the story. So it's actually pretty straightforward from that standpoint.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Great. Thanks for clarifying. And then on the different basics, can you help bridge the 20 or the third quarter EBITDA and CapEx to your full-year guidance in terms of what the implied ramp for the fourth quarter?

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Yes. So EBITDA is expected for the year to be $1.6 billion. As Wes said, that does include a little less than $200 million of gains on sales of assets that we expect to close by the end of the year. But that leaves you with approximately rounded $1.4 billion, which we think that the fourth quarter fills.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Any meaningful drivers embedded in there? Or any -- can you break out any contribution expected for mass LNG that's incorporating your guidance?

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Zero, Ryan. The only driver is the full quarter utilization of the new San Juan power plant.

Ryan Levine

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my question.

Christopher Guinta

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan.

Operator

Operator

We go next to Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Hey, sorry guys. I had one last question as a follow-up. Wes, you had mentioned kind of being selected as part of the multiple award task order contract in that $5 billion pool in Puerto Rico. And Chris, I think you might have mentioned being selected as part of two groups there. Can you break that out a bit or clarify kind of what that encompasses in terms of the types of projects that, that pool is focused on?

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Sure. Brennan, do you want to want to add?

Brannen McElmurray

Analyst

Yes, no problem. Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Brannen. So specifically, the Army Corps, as you rightly point out, put out a new program, which is $5 billion of expected investment into the Puerto Rican infrastructure over the coming, let's say, three to four years. We, meaning NFE competed with two groups on that. We meaning NFE were selected with two groups. And so the way it will go moving forward is once the Army Core decides on kind of a portfolio of projects, which obviously they intend to pay for, which could be power generation or other similar infrastructure builds, then we would participate. It's not dissimilar to the two projects that we won in Palo Seco and San Juan. So we would expect something similar going forward. So I think the short answer is the Army Corps program is $5 billion. They publicly announced it. They will scope that out over the coming months, and then we will participate and compete. And so far, we're to an out. So I feel pretty good about that.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Okay. So yes, to clarify, it could include additional downstream power generation assets and not just selling gas into the market.

Brannen McElmurray

Analyst

Correct. I think the -- probably a way to think about it is it's very similar to the two projects that we've completed, which is 350 megawatts. They just may be at different locations.

Chris Robertson

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's super helpful. Thank you.

Brannen McElmurray

Analyst

You're welcome.

Wesley Edens

Analyst

Craig, maybe just to wrap up because I think we've done other questions. The nine years since we started the company, spent $7.5 billion building of infrastructure, have seven terminals that are now up and six of them are operational, dominant positions in Brazil and Puerto Rico. The scale of the business now is truly massive. $2.5 billion roughly in revenue expected for this year. We expect to roughly double that revenue for next year, so $2.5 billion going to something close to $5 billion. The conversion of that into free cash flow is probably between 40% to 45%. And we trade at the lowest multiple in any infrastructure company I'm aware of on planet Earth. So it's good to be first at something, I guess. But with respect to the kind of valuation, obviously, I'm disappointed, but I expect that will change meaningfully as we actually deliver these results in Q4 and Q1 end points thereafter. And so I think we will get the investors that we deserve, and we'll get the valuation that we deserve. And for those of you that are investors in now, I think we'll be very well rewarded for it. But really a terrific year for us to date. I think it sets us up extremely well both the end of the year and for next year with all the big changes not only in Puerto Rico, but in Brazil and other markets around the globe, something that we don't talk about a lot is the developments that we've had in the hydrogen business. That is a business that is, we think, the dominant hydrogen business in the United States on the green side as far as I'm aware, it may well be the only meaningfully profitable hydrogen business that comes out of the IRA at this point. The business plan that Ken and others have come up with is one that I really support, which basically is to turn the hydrogen business into a production that actually occurs at the place where it's used. So you take -- first, you solve a chemistry problem and the transportation problem to solve for because you're actually utilizing right where you're making it in place. So it's a very, very exciting time for the company, and we feel great about the quarter that just concluded and the prospects that are going forward. And I want to thank everyone for taking the time to listen. And we look forward to updating you on our full-year results in Q4 sometime early next year. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And that was our final question from the audience today. Mr. Pipitone, I'll turn it back to you, sir, for any additional or closing remarks you may have.

Chance Pipitone

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, Melinda, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Again, we remain available as always to answer any questions, please just contact the Investor Relations team. And thank you again. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at any time.