Jose Carlos del Valle
Analyst · Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question
Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning and good afternoon to everyone. I will continue on Slide 9. I’m pleased to report solid financial results for the full-year 2022. As you can see, beginning with a chart on your upper left, total consolidated net revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 15% year-over-year, due mainly to higher metal sales, compared to third quarter of 2022, net revenues increased by 11%, mainly driven by the mining sector. Looking at the full-year in 2022 consolidated net revenues reach $3 billion versus $2.6 billion in the same period last year, an increase of 16% primarily due to higher prices. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, consolidated adjusted EBIT in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 120 million, compared to 153 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 121 million in the third quarter of 2022. For the full-year, consolidated adjusted EBITDA increased by 2% to $760 million, the highest annual adjusted EBITA ever achieved by Nexa. In relation to these figures, it is important to mention that in December 2022 Nexa revise its adjusted EBITDA definition aiming to provide a better understanding of its operational and financial performance. Prior period comparatives have also been adjusted based on the updated definition. We now move to Slide 10, where I will explain our results in further detail. In the mining segment, net revenues for the fourth quarter of 2022 totaled 350 million down 3% versus the same period of last year. This is explained mainly by higher TCs and lower LME base metal prices. These negative effects were partially offset by higher copper, lead and silver volumes. For 2022 as a whole, net revenue for the mining segment totaled 1.25 billion compared to 1.16 billion a year-ago, mainly due to higher sync LME prices and the increase in copper, lead and silver volumes. Regarding adjusted EBITDA on your upper right, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for the mining segment was 78 million, a reduction of 36% year-over-year mainly driven by lower prices and higher TCs. We also started recording the sales of Aripuanã in our results, which still have a higher unit cost. This resulted in a negative impact of $14 million. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, adjusted EBITDA increased by 22%, mainly driven by higher prices and higher byproduct contributions. Finally, adjusted EBITDA for the mining segment in 2022 was $440 million compared to $477 million last year, mainly due to increases in operational cost and also Aripuanã effect. Switching over to the Smelting segment, net revenues in the fourth quarter totaled $606 million, an increase of 19% versus the fourth quarter of 2021. This improvement is due mainly to higher sales volumes. Compared to third quarter of 2022, net revenues decreased 1%, mainly due to lower metal prices. Now for the full-year 2022, net revenue for the Smelting segment totaled 2.5 billion compared to $2 billion in the same period of last year, mainly due to the increase in zinc metal prices. When we look at adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2022, we see that the Smelting segment reported $46 million, up 44% from the fourth quarter of 2021. This is explained mainly by higher decrease and an increase in byproduct contribution of $19 million. Compared to the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA for Smelting segment decreased by 21%, mainly explained by a non-cash impact of 40 million related to the update of environmental liabilities and related provisions in Brazil. Finally, the Smelting segment’s adjusted EBITDA for the full-year 2022 totaled 326 million, compared to $271 million a year-ago. This is an increase of 20%. Now let’s move on to Slide Number 11. For 2022 and starting from our $760 million of adjusted EBITDA without Aripuanã expenses and investments, we can see that cash flow provided by operations before working capital changes was $806 million. We then paid $229 million related to interest and taxes and $234 million in sustaining CapEx for our current operations. We also paid dividends of 75 million, including the amount distributed by our subsidiary Pollarix. Additionally, we invested $41 million in non-sustaining CapEx. In relation Aripuanã, we invested approximately 226 million, including CapEx, pre-operating expenses and working capital. It is important to mention that in 2022, we had a negative net effect of $70 million, due to the early redemption of our 2023 notes, which was partially offset by a new export grade facility. Foreign exchange effects on cash and cash equivalents was a positive $60 million. Finally, there was a working capital variation of $136 million, mainly due to higher LME prices on inventories and lower outstanding amounts of accounts payable. With all the effects presented in this slide, 2022 free cash flow was negative $246 million. Now for 2023, we are confident with the completion of Aripuanã’s ramp up and a number of cash innovation initiatives, we will make a strong contribution to the company’s free cash flow generation. Now let’s move to Slide 12. In this slide, you can see that our liquidity remains strong and that we continue to report a healthy balance sheet with an extended debt profile. By the end of 2022, our current available liquidity was approximately $816 million, including our undrawn revolving credit facility of 300 million. It is important to mention that as of December 31st, the average maturity of our total debt was 4.6 years, with a 5.3% average cost of debt. Finally, our leverage measured by the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 1.5 times compared to 1.4 times at the end of the third quarter and to 1.3 times a year-ago. Now moving to Slide 13 to discuss market fundamentals. As you all know, we had high volatility in base metal prices during the year due to a number of macroeconomic factors. Despite this during 2022, zinc was one of the most resilient metals registering a price increase of 16%, compared to 2021. Although we expect zinc prices to remain relatively high in 2023, we expect that prices will be lower compared to 2022 simply managed to continue to be driven by investments in the infrastructure and construction sectors. Regarding copper prices in 2022 decreased by 6%, compared to 2021, partly affected by the expectation of a potential slowdown in global economy growth and of a higher supply in the short-term. Going forward, electric vehicle production and renewable energy projects are the main drivers for copper demand. Overall, the outlook for zinc and copper in the mid to long-term remains positive and is supported by solid market fundamentals. Now moving to Slide 15, we are going to talk about the mining segment. As we show here for 2023. Zinc production at the mid range of the guidance is estimated to increase by 11% from 2022, mainly driven by additional production from Aripuanã. In general zinc production is expected to increase in all of our mines except for Cerro Lindo due to lower hit rates. For 2024, zinc production is estimated to increase 6% with a further 2% in 2025 over 2024. In 2023, corporate production at the midpoint of the guidance range is forecasted to increase by 1% on average, compared to 2022 also mostly driven by Aripuanã. Before decreasing in 2024 as we expect to access lower grade copper areas. This is in-line with a mine plan. Lead production follows a similar outward trend, and is expected to increase by 10% in 2023 versus 2022. With further increases of 10% and 8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Consolidated 2023 runoff mine mining costs at the mid range of the guidance are estimated to increase 2% year-over-year, primarily driven by Vazante due to a scheduled trunnion maintenance, in addition to expected higher energy prices and inflationary pressures on costs. In terms of cash cost, which does not include Aripuanã, we estimate mining cash flows between $0.49 per pound and $0.54 per pound in 2023, compared to $0.28 per pound in 2022. The main reasons for these are, on one hand ongoing inflationary cost pressures and on the other factors like higher TCs, lower by-product credits as we assume lower base metal prices compared to 2022 and also a decrease in sync volumes from our current operations without Aripuanã. Turning now to Slide 16 to discuss three year guidance for a smelting segment. For 2023, it is important to mention that metal sales at the midpoint of the guidance range are estimated to decreased by 4%, compared to 2022. As these estimates do not assume the resale of material from third parties, for the forecasted periods, the smelters are expected to operate at normal levels and sales are expected to be similar to production levels. In terms of conversion costs, we estimate smelting consolidated conversion costs to increase slightly, mainly due to inflationary cost pressures and higher energy costs in Brazil. On the other hand, consolidated smelting cash costs in 2023 are expected to decrease year-over-year, primarily due to an estimated decrease in zinc prices and higher TCs, which should be partially offset by lower byproduct rates. Next, before moving forward, I would like to discuss energy in some more detail. As most of you are aware, we consolidate our Pollarix subsidiary in our results. Pollarix is responsible to supply energy for our operations, and it has an equity interest in several power plants in Brazil, one of them being Enercan. In November Enercan capital structure changed and as a result we lost the joint control we had in the past. Consequently, we have stopped recognizing Enercan’s proportional results in our numbers, we will still receive dues, so this will have no impact on our final result, but it will have an impact on our mining and smelting costs, which will increase in comparison to 2022. Finally, turning over to my last slide on investment guidance. For 2023 we expect CapEx of $310 million, sustaining investments are expected to total 268 million, with mining accounting for 194 million, including 52 million from Aripuanã and smelting accounting for $64 million. In the mining segment, the majority of sustaining capital expenditures around 79 million are for underground mine development, and 54 million for the tailings storage facility. In terms of mineral exploration in 2023, we estimate a total investment of 55 million, also down compared to 2022. Finally, project evaluation investments are estimated at $55 million, mainly driven by the Tres Marias facility project of 20 million and 28 million related to corporate IT, potential growth projects and various other projects across our business units. I will now hand the call back to Ignacio for his final remarks. Ignacio please.